XAUUSD - KOG REPORT!

KOG Report

22/05/22

In last week’s KOG Report we said we were overdue a retracement from the decline we had witnessed and would be looking for a short-term bottom for the price to then begin some form of retracement. We suggested to look at the 1780-90 price region and if price rejected that region, then we would be looking for the price to target the 1810, 1820 and above that 1835 price points. We suggested we would be looking for the price to remain below the 1850 price point and if it did, we would be looking to short the market back down. During the week we updated this with the intraday zones and suggested the 1835 price point would be a good target for the shorts and then to look for the long again into the 1850 region for the retest.

As you can see the market moved as anticipated and it gave traders the opportunity to long, short and then long again using the zones and levels provided.

So, what can we expect in the week ahead?

We’ll start by saying we always trade caution leading up to the end of the month and with this being the last trading week of the month we’re going to be picking and choosing our trades wisely. May is usually a negative month for Gold so what we want to see is if this has found the bottom here for now and are we going to be testing the higher price regions over the coming months. We have shared the weekly and monthly charts on Gold showing what we’re seeing highlighting the key areas for the structure to remain intact for lower pricing, so we’re not convinced this is going to new all-time highs at the moment.

We can see the higher level of around 1910-20 which is where liquidity is sitting tight, so there is a possibility we will see this price point as some point in the coming months. We will be aiming for this level only on the break and close of the 1850 level. Until then, as we suggested on the weekly KOG Report we have a low of around 1780 which needs to break for this to go lower. Now traders will be asking is it a buy or a sell! We’ll say we have two main targets in mind for the coming week, the 1865 level and the 1780 level. We have the key zone of 1830-35 stopping us to the downside and we have the psychological level of 1850 blocking us to the upside. This gives us the range we could be playing in if this wants to accumulate here on the daily timeframe. So as always, we’ll trade this with 2 scenarios in mind for the week.

Scenario 1:

Price opens and we get a negative signal in the early sessions. We will be looking for the support region of 1832 and below that 1828. As long as these levels hold, we feel this will represent an opportunity to long the market up towards 1850, 1855 and above the 1865. 1865 is our target on the long side for this week and that’s where we want to see if there is a break through and close or if the price is rejected at that level.

Scenario 2:

Price opens with a positive signal; we will be looking for a break of 1850 and close. If 1850 holds as support, we see this as a short term trade to the upside to target that 1865 price region and look there for a rejection in price. If price is rejected there, we feel this is an opportunity to take the short trade back down for the target area of 1835 and if we close the daily below the 1850 level the levels of 1820, 1810 and below that 1790.

In summary.

Trade the range, trade the levels, breaks and closes, look for sniper entries from support and resistance levels and follow the targets. We will be trading this level to level, if we get the right entry we’ll take partials at a good levels and move the stops to entry on the winners to protect them.

We’re not here to get rich quick, when the market is giving take from it, but when it starts taking make sure to give as little as possible. We’ll share the weekly and monthly chart updates as well so we can see what the price is doing on a bigger scale allowing us to stay the right side of it.

This week we have FOMC on Wednesday so potential for this to just range in a tight zone creating choppy and whipsawing price action. Please tread carefully, don’t commit too heavily on your trades and make sure you use a strict and responsible stop loss!

Hope this helps in preparation for the week ahead, we will update you as we go along as we usually do. Please do support us by hitting the like button, leaving a comment and giving us a follow. We’ve been doing this for a long time now providing traders with in-depth free analysis on Gold, so your likes and comments are very much appreciated.

As always, trade safe.

KOG