Stock Market Ready to Make Another Bear Trap?
Actualizado
Trading the stock market is a completely different game than trading Crypto or commodities/currencies. All of these different financial markets have one thing clearly in common and that is trapping retail money and use their money and stops as fuel to get in and out of positions. From my experience of the stock market, things become very obvious at a certain point, FA and TA wise. But the market never does what the obvious is and what short term traders want it to do. After a while we can all see the market is turning bearish in the charts, especially when we start to see that main street (dumb) media start to cover some of these aspects as well. They tend to exhaust retail traders with their put options and their other short term leveraged derivatives, until their funds dry up. That is the moment where the market finally starts to turn down. They usually choose the moment when things look like they will make one more (obvious) wave up and then out of nowhere they start to drop and drop and drop. In other words, when you least expect it, it turns down in a straight line preventing us from getting a good entry level and eventually missing out the move we were waiting on for a very long time. So even predicting the bear market way upfront (being right, as many inexperienced traders like to be) but eventually loosing money during the whole period, but most importantly missing the whole move we were waiting for.
This is simply talking from experience, meaning been there done that :) I have fallen for the same traps as well in the past. This experience helped me to nail the DAX market almost to the point this year. Where i predicted the start of the bear market at the high AND predicting the reversal up in April. How did i do that, well i can tell you it looks harder than it is. First of all, i had this game plan in mind even before i shorted it at the high in Jan, that bears would get trapped at a certain point and we could would see a reversal up again. Giving the whole world the feeling again that buying the dip was the way to go and flushing the first bears out of the market again who of course shorted at the lows. How i pinpointed the low, was based on TA and my own unique tools to do that. In my plan back than, i thought the move up would take 2 to 4 months before the biggest wave down would start. I underestimated this because it took 5 months for the move down again. As crazy as Americans can be, they even made new ATH in that last month. Of course we would get recommendations from banks like Goldman Sachs, that around that high a few months ago, things were looking perfect and ideal for people to buy again. First thing i said here and to my members, they are probably getting desperate and they need more buy volume so they can unload their positions at those highs.
Anyway, we have been dropping again the past months due to several fundamentals as well and at the moment we have reached a danger zone. We even broke important support levels the past days in the major markets, but as crazy as i am, i love to go against obvious signals :). Even here on TV we can see some people finally waking up and becoming bearish on the stock market, so that gives me even more confidence of going against the obvious. Next to that, December is usually a bullish/sideways months. In the past 20 years we only had a bearish December month in 2008 and 2015. That increases the odds as well for a sideways/upwards movement for the coming month or 2.
On the chart we can see the neckline of the H&S broke already, but besides the fact that H&S on the daily or unreliable in the stock market, we see false moves happen often AND they are usually far from textbook on the short term. Yesterday's close shows a very bullish candle as well, indicating we might see another move up. The only way my (temp) bullish view works out, is if we see a big bullish green candle today or tomorrow, max the end of this week. Similar to what we have seen in beginning of April or/and beginning of May. If that happens, the big bear trap move i am telling here becomes very realistic.
If my bear trap analysis fails, i think it's fair to say that it is a very bad situation and that the pro's in the market are in panic mode as well. So that will probably mean things might get very ugly the coming months.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Dax Bear 2018 market analysis:
Current Dax analysis:
This is simply talking from experience, meaning been there done that :) I have fallen for the same traps as well in the past. This experience helped me to nail the DAX market almost to the point this year. Where i predicted the start of the bear market at the high AND predicting the reversal up in April. How did i do that, well i can tell you it looks harder than it is. First of all, i had this game plan in mind even before i shorted it at the high in Jan, that bears would get trapped at a certain point and we could would see a reversal up again. Giving the whole world the feeling again that buying the dip was the way to go and flushing the first bears out of the market again who of course shorted at the lows. How i pinpointed the low, was based on TA and my own unique tools to do that. In my plan back than, i thought the move up would take 2 to 4 months before the biggest wave down would start. I underestimated this because it took 5 months for the move down again. As crazy as Americans can be, they even made new ATH in that last month. Of course we would get recommendations from banks like Goldman Sachs, that around that high a few months ago, things were looking perfect and ideal for people to buy again. First thing i said here and to my members, they are probably getting desperate and they need more buy volume so they can unload their positions at those highs.
Anyway, we have been dropping again the past months due to several fundamentals as well and at the moment we have reached a danger zone. We even broke important support levels the past days in the major markets, but as crazy as i am, i love to go against obvious signals :). Even here on TV we can see some people finally waking up and becoming bearish on the stock market, so that gives me even more confidence of going against the obvious. Next to that, December is usually a bullish/sideways months. In the past 20 years we only had a bearish December month in 2008 and 2015. That increases the odds as well for a sideways/upwards movement for the coming month or 2.
On the chart we can see the neckline of the H&S broke already, but besides the fact that H&S on the daily or unreliable in the stock market, we see false moves happen often AND they are usually far from textbook on the short term. Yesterday's close shows a very bullish candle as well, indicating we might see another move up. The only way my (temp) bullish view works out, is if we see a big bullish green candle today or tomorrow, max the end of this week. Similar to what we have seen in beginning of April or/and beginning of May. If that happens, the big bear trap move i am telling here becomes very realistic.
If my bear trap analysis fails, i think it's fair to say that it is a very bad situation and that the pro's in the market are in panic mode as well. So that will probably mean things might get very ugly the coming months.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Dax Bear 2018 market analysis:
Current Dax analysis:
Nota
Today was certainly not a good day but also not a bad day for my bear trap analysis. As long as we stay above the green support on the right, it can still work out. If we don't see a decent move up tomorrow, i might have it wrong. We need to see a good 1.5/2% plus day this week, best case even a straight line divided over a trading day, confirming shorts getting bullied out of the market.Nota
Same deal yesterday, made another move up but got sold off at the end of the day. Now it is looking worse since we can see a clear bearish wedge forming now. Futures are higher though, so there is still a chance. But if we see a lower high being made, we can assume the wedge is in play with a target around the 2600. If we bounce there we could still see a Bear trap move, but it will become less likely of course than making it work here.
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