Analysis techniques – Robusta Coffee Futures (Nov 2025)
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone.
The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks.
Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646
Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend:
The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline.
(2) Volume:
Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation.
(3) Wave Structure:
Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020.
4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View
Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta.
Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices.
Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4,450 – 4,520
TP: 4,926 – 5,646
SL: 4,305
Probability: 65%
Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 4,900 – 4,950
TP: 4,305 – 4,020
SL: 5,000
Probability: 40%
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits.
Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926.
Date: Oct 06, 2025 | Timeframe: D1 | Contract Code: LRCX25
1. Trend Overview and Price Structure
November Robusta coffee surged to USD 4,528/ton (+4.65%), extending its rebound from the 4,020 – 4,305 support zone.
The price pattern is shaping a falling wedge, a potential reversal setup if the upper boundary near 4,600 – 4,650 breaks.
Medium term, the market is transitioning from a downtrend into a consolidation-recovery phase, targeting 4,926 – 5,646 once resistance breaks.
2. Key Technical Levels
Resistance: 4,650 – 4,926 – 5,646
Support: 4,305 – 4,020 – 3,628
3. Detailed Technical Analysis
(1) Short-term Trend:
The current rally is a corrective move after September’s decline. Holding above 4,305 shows renewed buying strength, supported by a breakout through the descending trendline.
(2) Volume:
Volume expansion during Oct 4–5 sessions indicates active technical buying and bullish participation.
(3) Wave Structure:
Price appears to be forming a wave 3 recovery leg. If the move extends, theoretical targets lie around 4,926 – 5,646.
(4) Confirmation Signals:
A daily close above 4,650 confirms wedge breakout; a break below 4,305 would risk a pullback toward 4,020.
4. Bloomberg Intelligence Strategic View
Short Term: Technical rebound supported by tight ICE inventories and speculative buying in Robusta.
Medium Term: Heavy rains in Vietnam’s Central Highlands and Brazil’s Minas Gerais may improve 2025/26 output, yet Indonesia’s weak supply continues to underpin prices.
Key Risk: A stronger USD or weaker BRL could trigger producer hedging and limit upside momentum.
5. Suggested Technical Strategies
Preferred Long Setup:
Entry: 4,450 – 4,520
TP: 4,926 – 5,646
SL: 4,305
Probability: 65%
Counter-trend Short Setup:
Entry: 4,900 – 4,950
TP: 4,305 – 4,020
SL: 5,000
Probability: 40%
6. Corporate Hedging Guidance
Exporters: Consider forward sales around 4,900 – 5,000 to secure short-term profits.
Roasters/importers: Hedge near 4,400 – 4,500 to mitigate upside exposure in case of a breakout above 4,926.
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Publicaciones relacionadas
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.