What to look for next week. After my lose streak, a win streak?
Actualizado
AAAAAAH PONZI IS TRYING TO GET ME! Leave me alone I will not fall for it! Everything is a ponzi they are trying to get us!
Did you know ponzi's existed before Ponzi and were invented by a woman (unless they existed even before)?
Women are a scam! They do not really exist they are out to get us! Women are a ponzi!
They promise new humans every few years in exchange for time and money! Scam!
No, I am not high.
Ok nothing is a ponzi, well except crypto of course, what an incredible scam.
I might have spent too much time watching this meme market recently. What a ridiculous space, trully unbelievable.
Before diving in each market (every market except bonds basically since I can't find a broker for bonds), let me explain that risk reward winrate thing:
It is so laborious, like people start wnating to be right all the time and getting a high winrate, but that does not work, so they aim for high risk to reward,
but you get stopped all the time and that is bad. So either abandon (can't figure out there is more to trading than drawing triangles & butterflies and chaisng good "RR"? lololol), or they might try to combine RR & Winrate, which is smart. BUT RR does not go up with winrate going down, there is a 3rd element to add: frequency. Or how active the trader is. You can have a large risk to reward and an incredible winrate at the same time. It is possible. But then you will only be taking 1 trade a year.
So here is what to look at:
- Risk to reward
- Winrate
- How many trades will you be taking? If it is too low you will want to lower the bar to get more opportunities.
- Also we could add weakling things like "how many losses can you handle in a row" "How much time do you have?" "Boohoohoo my emotions" etc.
Ok let's look at all the ponzi's 1 by 1 :)
Currencies:
The US dollar broke out of consolidation eary-mid august which is nice, but it is trolling right now. Cannot tell where it is likely to go next now...
But that uncertainty does not stop Forex pairs (it stops EURUSD thought). I will not post all that I am watching, but I will post a few.
For example the USD/Yuan FINALLY dumped and made a lower low, that was overdue. Unless the USD gets stronger I am expecting a downtrend soon.
The People’s Bank of China made announcements that will ease credit conditions, and it's monetary policy is shifting, so that caused a Yuan crash,
but as always, people overeacted, and the news got overpriced, it got way oversold. Time for a correction.
Pound versus Swiss Franc. Super bearish.
But I know we are reaching a certain level now, and I expect it to go down with bullish divergence, I will then go long. We can already see the momentum is much weaker now...
When it bounces, I will short it.
AUDCAD: simple, I want to short it when it goes up in this box. Actually higher than this box.
Gold (& other metals):
Metals are all following the same path. I will just look at gold in this idea which is the "leader".
Go in TV chat, there are not as many bulls on Gold, they were calling for 1400 a few weeks ago. No more.
But some people still think it goes up. This is perfectly normal as we have not yet started wave 5. When wave 5 will be well established, price will be maybe 1140 say, go check reddit or something (has to be "noobish" enough). It should be full of bears.
But, let me show you how perfectly fibo levels have been respected.
1rst the large count:
Then I look at the subwaves of (1):
Next subwaves of (3):
Wait for fib to be reached (0.618) and see how it reacts looking at lower timeframes.
US Stocks:
There is much uncertainty. I just prefer not touching these for a few months. I believe they will keep going up, but with weakness, and then brace yourselves for the crash of the century.
Nasdaq and S&P are much stronger than DJI, if they continue to be, if they continue to be when the Dow goes to 30k/35k (assuming it does), then their downside will
be much more brutal, and I will be sure to short them, both short term (day trade violent resistance rejections and panic dumps) & keep some position trades probably.
But for the next few months, I think it is best to stay away, there are plenty other things to trade, crypto (meh), metals, soft commodities, Oil (meh), Bonds (idk why not many brokers offer this actually one of my brokers might offer bonds I have to check later), Forex of course.
It will be a while before I look at EU ASIA stocks, if ever.
CryptoPonzi:
Nothing new going on as usual. Stay tuned for more nothing next week.
The most losses I had in a row I think was 5, and the most wins in a row a dozen. Can I beat either record? :)
Did you know ponzi's existed before Ponzi and were invented by a woman (unless they existed even before)?
Women are a scam! They do not really exist they are out to get us! Women are a ponzi!
They promise new humans every few years in exchange for time and money! Scam!
No, I am not high.
Ok nothing is a ponzi, well except crypto of course, what an incredible scam.
I might have spent too much time watching this meme market recently. What a ridiculous space, trully unbelievable.
Before diving in each market (every market except bonds basically since I can't find a broker for bonds), let me explain that risk reward winrate thing:
It is so laborious, like people start wnating to be right all the time and getting a high winrate, but that does not work, so they aim for high risk to reward,
but you get stopped all the time and that is bad. So either abandon (can't figure out there is more to trading than drawing triangles & butterflies and chaisng good "RR"? lololol), or they might try to combine RR & Winrate, which is smart. BUT RR does not go up with winrate going down, there is a 3rd element to add: frequency. Or how active the trader is. You can have a large risk to reward and an incredible winrate at the same time. It is possible. But then you will only be taking 1 trade a year.
So here is what to look at:
- Risk to reward
- Winrate
- How many trades will you be taking? If it is too low you will want to lower the bar to get more opportunities.
- Also we could add weakling things like "how many losses can you handle in a row" "How much time do you have?" "Boohoohoo my emotions" etc.
Ok let's look at all the ponzi's 1 by 1 :)
Currencies:
The US dollar broke out of consolidation eary-mid august which is nice, but it is trolling right now. Cannot tell where it is likely to go next now...
But that uncertainty does not stop Forex pairs (it stops EURUSD thought). I will not post all that I am watching, but I will post a few.
For example the USD/Yuan FINALLY dumped and made a lower low, that was overdue. Unless the USD gets stronger I am expecting a downtrend soon.
The People’s Bank of China made announcements that will ease credit conditions, and it's monetary policy is shifting, so that caused a Yuan crash,
but as always, people overeacted, and the news got overpriced, it got way oversold. Time for a correction.
Pound versus Swiss Franc. Super bearish.
But I know we are reaching a certain level now, and I expect it to go down with bullish divergence, I will then go long. We can already see the momentum is much weaker now...
When it bounces, I will short it.
AUDCAD: simple, I want to short it when it goes up in this box. Actually higher than this box.
Gold (& other metals):
Metals are all following the same path. I will just look at gold in this idea which is the "leader".
Go in TV chat, there are not as many bulls on Gold, they were calling for 1400 a few weeks ago. No more.
But some people still think it goes up. This is perfectly normal as we have not yet started wave 5. When wave 5 will be well established, price will be maybe 1140 say, go check reddit or something (has to be "noobish" enough). It should be full of bears.
But, let me show you how perfectly fibo levels have been respected.
1rst the large count:
Then I look at the subwaves of (1):
Next subwaves of (3):
Wait for fib to be reached (0.618) and see how it reacts looking at lower timeframes.
US Stocks:
There is much uncertainty. I just prefer not touching these for a few months. I believe they will keep going up, but with weakness, and then brace yourselves for the crash of the century.
Nasdaq and S&P are much stronger than DJI, if they continue to be, if they continue to be when the Dow goes to 30k/35k (assuming it does), then their downside will
be much more brutal, and I will be sure to short them, both short term (day trade violent resistance rejections and panic dumps) & keep some position trades probably.
But for the next few months, I think it is best to stay away, there are plenty other things to trade, crypto (meh), metals, soft commodities, Oil (meh), Bonds (idk why not many brokers offer this actually one of my brokers might offer bonds I have to check later), Forex of course.
It will be a while before I look at EU ASIA stocks, if ever.
CryptoPonzi:
Nothing new going on as usual. Stay tuned for more nothing next week.
The most losses I had in a row I think was 5, and the most wins in a row a dozen. Can I beat either record? :)
Operación activa
Short EURGBP.I am going against a bull break in an uptrend here, BUT I am not convinced.
Feels quite risky, but my risk to reward is 3 here, it is fine.
Broker resistance:
It has bearish divergence on all these indicators (and more)
This voodoo magic also:
I think people are just filling orders here.
And I doubt we can just pass that resistance in just a few days lol.
By the time I post this it already dropped a little... mkay.
I just cannot find reasons against that trade expect the obvious ones I mentionned at the begining of this little update.
Worth the risk.
Nota
My company wanted to see me 30 minutes today.This is when I got an alert on EURCAD.
10 min later when I checked it already rejected violently resistance and 1 hour later it is at my target. As usual.
EURGBP is still going back and forth...
I could put alerts further try placing my orders in advance or something.
But what is the point? With my unbelievable bad luck no matter what I do ill get fucked.
The odds of winning the lotery twice in a row are higher that what happens to me.
Nota
I lost thousands going long on Bitcoin.I lost thousands going against the trend with currencies.
I lost a couple hundred going against the trend with stocks.
I lost a couple hundred going against the trend with Oil.
Maybe I should stop...
A simple go long on Inside bar bull break (in a bulltrend obv.) would be much simplier and BETTER lol.
I need help. I need an intervention.
It would not be such an issue if I did not miss out on GOOD trades recently...
I need to fully focus on going WITH the trend, I missed out on EURCAD yesterday (+ 2 more actually), it is innacceptable.
If I miss out on good trades I need to cut out the average (or bad, probably bad) ones so I make sure all is ready and I CANNOT miss.
I am sure there IS a way to fight the trend, I just want to make it XD
Stupidest challenge ever. Help me, how do I go against the trend?
I don't? Is that the answer? XD
Oh well
Lol I am seeing everywhere "do not fight the trend"
morpheustrading.com/blog/why-we-dont-fight-the-trend-psychology/
traderfeed.blogspot.com/2009/10/if-youre-fighting-trend-youre-defending.html
cmgwealth.com/ri/trade-signals-dont-fight-trend-tape-golden-rule/
They were saying the same 100 50 25 10 years ago and it will keep being the same.
Ah man but making money going with the trend is too easy, give me a challenge XD
Ok maybe if I use big Fibo levels + large divergence on several timeframes... (I can't help it).
But really, going with the trend is so easy, it is dumb. What's the point? Where is the fun in that? Any monkey can do it...
Nota
I will not say "it is impossible" like all suckers just because THEY fail and have a small mind, but I sure as hell tried and it is just not worth my time and money.Nota
Nevermind I think I just figured how to go against the trend :))))I am just too smart, nothing can stop me.
Operación activa
Risking over $1000 going long on EURGBP on a hunch, cannot post chart from my phone.And week is almost over.
What is wrong with me?
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