Fresh Outlook: Almost 2 weeks ago I pointed out that fact that price action in ETHUSD looked quite bullish and we could see a pop in price. Since that analysis, price has indeed popped and a bullish rally has ensued, at least in the short term. The current price action is that it looks as though the recent attempt by bears to push price lower is being rejected and the bull is still alive. I noted in my last analysis that $137 was a key price level that needed to hold for this bull to keep running. Price pulled back and briefly dipped below $137 before staging a sharp reversal from that level. If price is able to break above the local high of $148, that will be the proof we need to see that this bull is alive and a long term bottom is still in play.
Risks: The biggest risk I see is massive overhead resistance at $150. The best possible outcome is price slicing through that level like a hot knife through butter and then being able to hold above that level on a daily and weekly closing basis. The worst case is if price reaches or breaks above it, and then is slammed back down. That totally crush the bullish outlook in the short-to-medium term, and the bulls would have more technical damage to repair.
In summary: The bullish signals from a week or two ago did indeed lead to a rally in price. It is yet to be seen if that bull can continue, but as of right now the key price levels are holding. Price action right now is not ultra-bullish, but somewhere closer to neutral-to-bullish. Keep in mind that rallies within major bear trends can be very fragile. Always keep your stops tight if you decide to go long during a major bear trend. If you are swing trading this, there have been plenty of opportunities to establish long positions and then lock in profits with trailing stops or other types of price/pivot based stops. If you are building a long term position then this would have been the perfect place to put your dry powder to work and buy another tranche.
Risks: The biggest risk I see is massive overhead resistance at $150. The best possible outcome is price slicing through that level like a hot knife through butter and then being able to hold above that level on a daily and weekly closing basis. The worst case is if price reaches or breaks above it, and then is slammed back down. That totally crush the bullish outlook in the short-to-medium term, and the bulls would have more technical damage to repair.
In summary: The bullish signals from a week or two ago did indeed lead to a rally in price. It is yet to be seen if that bull can continue, but as of right now the key price levels are holding. Price action right now is not ultra-bullish, but somewhere closer to neutral-to-bullish. Keep in mind that rallies within major bear trends can be very fragile. Always keep your stops tight if you decide to go long during a major bear trend. If you are swing trading this, there have been plenty of opportunities to establish long positions and then lock in profits with trailing stops or other types of price/pivot based stops. If you are building a long term position then this would have been the perfect place to put your dry powder to work and buy another tranche.
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