LupaCapital

DAX - poised for two scenarios, soft land or hand crash

XETR:DAX   Índice DAX
Evident with all indexes here - subject to SPX market crashing to a hard crash zone or a soft landing.
UK, AUS, DAX40, and world indexes will falter similarly.

UK, AUS may ease up or crash harder as majority of companies are dual listed, foreign owned* - expressed in ownership % >50%+


Below is the weekly chart which presents two opportunities;
Weekly
  • - price has a clear respect for the steep curve on the bearish trendline - completing a sequence of lower highs and lower lows.
  • Fresh price action shows a clear pathway towards the FL as a minimum - following the rules of probability of zone strengths after price reacts to said zone.


Reference to SPX 2008 - 2022, will Germany follow suit as correlations exist between indexes.


DAX monthly price cycle since 1983
  • Every instance within the price cycle - respective of price - has shown strong impulse, correction and return to FL's as opposed to OL's - meaning that the pivot test aligning still shows that the market cycle is within an overall economic growth (as every nation as time moves - growth and adaptability should also). With these factored in - price has shown historically that price reverts back to a FL - meaning the current price cycle will see the Index revert between 12,500-11,000 points for the DAX40. Based upon steep curve, supply reject to pivot.

Zoomed in Monthly

Daily
  • The price is following the Weekly and Monthly - the next probable reaction point lays in the orange zone below as a high probability as price previously has yet to tap this zone of interest.
    An alternate is a reactive tap on the weekly - this will indicate the high low formation creating a departure or consolidative phase. Subject to this, a confirmation will be needed.

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