Expecting Bitcoin to roll over shortly and head back down
We've already begun a small pullback which I expect will likely retrace all the way back to the green supply/demand area indicated. There is also bearish divergence (higher highs on price, lower highs on RSI) across these last two peaks, adding credibility to the idea that we will do a full retrace.
After that I expect we will likely go back into the supply area as the bulls keep pushing, but the large supply in this area will probably wear them out, and I doubt we'll be able to close above the ~$7380 area, which is an area I have marked because it has had a large volume profile in the past at that price. ie: There is a lot of supply from the last bounce, there is a lot of price action historically just above that area, AND historical resistance (all related probably) all coming together, roughly where the bear-market descending triangle almost meets us, and a couple of moving averages also provide additional resistance...
Basically, the bulls need to be very very confident and full of energy to break through all of that - and I do not see *that much* confidence in the market at this point in time. So I expect it to be rejected, where it will head back down to the lower support, little bounce to make sure we're not going back up, then down... to retest supports, and potentially (probably?) go to new lows. (won't know until we get closer.)
After that I expect we will likely go back into the supply area as the bulls keep pushing, but the large supply in this area will probably wear them out, and I doubt we'll be able to close above the ~$7380 area, which is an area I have marked because it has had a large volume profile in the past at that price. ie: There is a lot of supply from the last bounce, there is a lot of price action historically just above that area, AND historical resistance (all related probably) all coming together, roughly where the bear-market descending triangle almost meets us, and a couple of moving averages also provide additional resistance...
Basically, the bulls need to be very very confident and full of energy to break through all of that - and I do not see *that much* confidence in the market at this point in time. So I expect it to be rejected, where it will head back down to the lower support, little bounce to make sure we're not going back up, then down... to retest supports, and potentially (probably?) go to new lows. (won't know until we get closer.)
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