QUANT TRADING ENGINE [PointAlgo]Quant Trading Engine is a quantitative market-analysis indicator that combines multiple statistical factors to study trend behavior, mean reversion, volatility, execution efficiency, and market stability.
The indicator converts raw price behavior into standardized signals to help evaluate directional bias and risk conditions in a systematic way.
This script focuses on factor alignment and regime awareness, not prediction certainty.
Design Philosophy
Markets move through different regimes such as trending, ranging, volatile expansion, and instability.
This indicator attempts to model these regimes by blending:
Momentum strength
Mean-reversion pressure
Volatility risk
Trend filtering
Execution context (VWAP)
Correlation structure
Each component is normalized and combined into a single Quant Alpha framework.
Factor Construction
1. Momentum Factor
Measures directional strength using percentage price change over a rolling window.
Standardized using mean and standard deviation.
Represents trend continuation pressure.
2. Mean Reversion Factor
Measures deviation from a longer moving average.
Standardized to identify stretched conditions.
Designed to capture counter-trend behavior.
Directional Clamping
Mean-reversion signals are dynamically restricted:
No counter-trend buying during downtrends.
No counter-trend selling during uptrends.
Allows both sides only in neutral regimes.
This prevents conflicting signals in strong trends.
3. Volatility Factor
Uses realized volatility derived from price changes.
Penalizes environments where volatility deviates significantly from its norm.
Acts as a risk adjustment rather than a directional driver.
4. Composite Quant Alpha
The final Quant Alpha is a weighted blend of:
Momentum
Mean reversion (trend-clamped)
Volatility risk
The composite is standardized into a Z-score, allowing consistent interpretation across instruments and timeframes.
Signal Logic
Buy signal occurs when Quant Alpha crosses above zero.
Sell signal occurs when Quant Alpha crosses below zero.
Zero-cross logic is used to represent shifts from negative to positive statistical bias and vice versa.
Signals reflect statistical regime change, not trade instructions.
Volatility Smile Context
Measures price deviation from its statistical distribution.
Identifies skewed conditions where upside or downside volatility becomes dominant.
Highlights extreme deviations that may imply elevated derivative risk.
Exotic Risk Conditions
Detects sudden price expansion combined with volatility spikes.
Highlights environments where execution and risk become unstable.
Visual background cues are used for awareness only.
Execution Context (VWAP)
Measures price distance from VWAP.
Used to assess execution efficiency rather than direction.
Helps identify stretched conditions relative to average traded price.
Correlation Structure
Evaluates short-term return correlations.
Detects when price behavior becomes less predictable.
Flags structural instability rather than trend direction.
Visualization
The indicator plots:
Quant Alpha (scaled) with directional coloring
Volatility smile deviation
Price vs VWAP distance
Correlation structure
Signal markers indicate Quant Alpha zero-cross events and risk conditions.
Dashboard
A compact dashboard summarizes:
Trend filter state
Quant Alpha polarity and value
Individual factor readings
Current action state (Buy / Sell / Wait / Risk)
The dashboard provides a real-time snapshot of internal model conditions.
Usage Notes
Designed for analytical interpretation and research.
Best used alongside price action and risk management tools.
Factor behavior depends on instrument liquidity and volatility.
Not optimized for illiquid or irregular markets.
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and analytical purposes only.
It does not provide financial, investment, or trading advice.
All outputs should be independently validated before making any trading decisions.
Volatilidad
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
USD Liquidity Regime for BTC Perps (Dual) V1USD Liquidity Regime for BTC Perps (Dual)
This intents to be a BTC Perps USD Liquidity Regime macro indicator.
As it names states it is designed for BTCUSDT perpetual futures traders.
It attempts to tracks USD strength (DXY, UUP, yields, VIX composite) as liquidity proxy:
Lower index = weak USD = Risk-On (green background/histogram = long tailwind for BTC).
Higher = strong USD = Risk-Off (red = caution longs, shorts favor).
How to use:
Green background/histogram: Favor longs — rallies likely, dips bought.
Red: Caution longs — corrections hurt, short bias possible.
Blue line (index) vs red SMA: Crosses signal regime shifts.
Histogram strength: Bigger bars = stronger bias.
This is not intended as financial advise or trigger signal tool.
This is a work in progress
Its value is limited, if you do not understand any or some of the words above please do not use this indicator. If you did, then you understand you are not supposed to use this alone to make decisions.
Feel free to ask any questions, this is a work in progress.
Feel free to suggest improvements.
Educational macro context tool — not signals/advice.
Ok for avoiding going against the USD trend dominance by following liquidity.
By @frank_vergaram
Microstructure Participation & Acceptance Indicator📊 Microstructure Participation & Acceptance Indicator
An advanced participation-based filter combining VWAP distance analysis, volume delta detection, and real-time acceptance/rejection state identification—designed for smaller timeframe trading.
📊 FEATURES
VWAP Distance Normalization
Context-aware fair value measurement:
Automatically resets based on selected anchor (Session/Week/Month)
ATR-normalized distance calculation for universal application
Identifies when price is extended or compressed relative to equilibrium
Configurable extreme distance threshold (default: 1.5 ATR)
Adjustable source input (default: HLC3)
Volume Delta Proxy
Bull vs Bear participation tracking:
Calculates volume imbalance between bullish and bearish candles
EMA smoothing for cleaner signal generation (default: 9 periods)
Delta ratio measurement to identify dominant side
Expansion/compression detection to gauge momentum commitment
Configurable expansion threshold (default: 1.3x)
Acceptance/Rejection State Machine
Real-time market regime identification with six distinct states:
🟢 Accepted Long
Price moving away from VWAP with expanding bullish delta
Distance from VWAP increasing
Volume confirming the move
Indicates real buying pressure—trade WITH the move
🟢 Accepted Short
Price moving away from VWAP with expanding bearish delta
Distance from VWAP increasing
Volume confirming the move
Indicates real selling pressure—trade WITH the move
🟠 Fade Long
Price extended beyond threshold (>1.5 ATR above VWAP)
Delta not supporting the extension
Volume participation absent or diminishing
Potential mean-reversion short setup
🟠 Fade Short
Price extended beyond threshold (>1.5 ATR below VWAP)
Delta not supporting the extension
Volume participation absent or diminishing
Potential mean-reversion long setup
⚪ Chop
Price compressed near VWAP
Bollinger Bands tight (width compressed)
Delta neutral—no clear commitment
NO TRADE ZONE—wait for expansion
⚪ Neutral
Transitional state between regimes
Momentum shifting but not yet confirmed
Monitor for next acceptance signal
Bollinger Bands
Standard volatility measurement with TradingView default styling:
Adjustable period length (default: 20)
Configurable standard deviation multiplier (default: 2.0)
Visual fill between bands for volatility context
Used internally for chop/compression detection
Live Dashboard
Real-time metrics display (top-right corner):
Current market state with color coding
VWAP distance in ATR units
Delta ratio (bull/bear volume balance)
Delta state (Expanding/Compressing)
High-contrast design for instant readability
🎯 HOW TO USE
For Trend Trading:
Accepted Long/Short backgrounds indicate confirmed participation—stay with the trend
Strong moves typically travel 1-1.5 ATR from VWAP with delta support
Use VWAP as dynamic support/resistance
Combine with momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) for confluence
Price above VWAP + Accepted Long state = bullish bias
Price below VWAP + Accepted Short state = bearish bias
For Mean Reversion:
Fade Long/Short states signal overextension without participation
Price beyond 1.5 ATR from VWAP with weak delta = potential reversal
Look for price return to VWAP when extended
Bollinger Band extremes + Fade state = high-probability mean reversion setup
VWAP acts as mean reversion anchor during range-bound sessions
For Risk Management:
Chop state = avoid new entries
Bollinger Band compression + Chop = pre-expansion zone (wait for breakout)
Delta compression after strong move = early exhaustion warning
State transitions (Accepted → Neutral → Fade) = tighten stops
Signal Confirmation:
Strongest setups occur when multiple factors align:
BB breakout + Accepted state + price above/below VWAP
Price rejection at BB bands + Fade state
VWAP support/resistance hold + state transition
Delta expansion + distance increasing + trend direction
⚙️ SETTINGS
All components are fully customizable through organized input groups:
VWAP Distance Group:
VWAP source (default: HLC3)
Anchor period (Session/Week/Month)
ATR length for normalization (default: 14)
Extreme distance threshold in ATR multiples (default: 1.5)
Volume Delta Group:
Delta EMA length (default: 9)
Delta expansion threshold (default: 1.3)
Acceptance Logic Group:
Acceptance lookback period (default: 5)
Chop threshold in VWAP/ATR units (default: 0.3)
Bollinger Bands Group:
BB length (default: 20)
Standard deviation multiplier (default: 2.0)
Display Group:
Toggle state backgrounds
Toggle state change labels
Toggle VWAP line
Toggle Bollinger Bands
💡 EDUCATIONAL VALUE
This indicator teaches important concepts:
How institutional money identifies fair value (VWAP)
The difference between price movement and market acceptance
Why volume participation matters more than price action alone
How to distinguish between noise and committed directional moves
The relationship between volatility compression and expansion cycles
Why distance from equilibrium predicts mean reversion probability
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only
This is a filter, not a standalone trading system
No indicator is perfect—always use proper risk management
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Combine with your own analysis and risk tolerance
Test thoroughly on historical data before live trading
This is not financial advice—use at your own risk
🔧 TECHNICAL DETAILS
Pine Script Version 6
Overlay indicator (displays on price chart)
All calculations use standard, well-documented formulas
No repainting—all signals are confirmed on bar close
Compatible with all timeframes and instruments
Optimized for smaller timeframes (1-5 minute charts)
Minimal computational overhead
📝 CHANGELOG
Version 1.0
Initial release
VWAP distance normalization with ATR scaling
Volume delta proxy system (bull/bear EMA)
6-state acceptance/rejection state machine
Bollinger Bands integration
Real-time dashboard with live metrics
State change labels and background coloring
Full customization options
Developed for traders who need objective participation filters to distinguish high-probability setups from low-quality noise—without cluttering their charts with multiple indicator panels.
Big Trades Whale Detector [Volume Anomalies] By HKOverview The "Big Trade Detector" helps you spot institutional footprints by identifying volume anomalies that act as outliers compared to recent history. It uses statistical analysis (Standard Deviation) to filter out noise and highlight only significant buying or selling pressure.
Features:
Volume Decomposition: Approximates buy/sell volume based on price action within the candle (Close vs. Range).
3-Tier Detection: Uses dynamic thresholds to categorize volume spikes into Small, Medium, and Extreme events.
Smart Calculation: Compares current volume against the previous average to detect sudden shifts in momentum.
Visuals:
Green Circles (Below Bar): Unusual Buying Pressure (Support defense or Breakout).
Red Circles (Above Bar): Unusual Selling Pressure (Resistance defense or Dump).
Size Matters: The larger the circle, the higher the standard deviation (Sigma) of that volume event.
DMI Direction TableCompact table for Directional Movement Index (DMI) built to stay readable and configurable.
What it shows
DI+ and DI– from a fixed timeframe via request.security (default 4H), independent of the chart timeframe.
Trend text: Bullish/Bearish/Sideways with strength bucket (Mild/Normal/Strong/Very Strong) derived from the absolute gap |DI+ − DI–|, not ADX.
Values printed with two decimals, no percent sign.
Key controls
Fixed Timeframe (for DMI): choose any resolution; the label auto-displays as 1m/5m/1H/4H/1D/1W/1M.
Gap thresholds: Sideways, Mild, Normal, Strong, Very Strong.
Table Position: top/middle/bottom × left/center/right.
Font Size: tiny/small/normal/large/huge.
Styling
Full manual palette for headers and value cells.
Separate background and text colors for Bullish, Bearish, and Sideways trend states.
Independent colors for DI+ and DI– cells.
Deliberate omissions
No RSI.
No ADX; strength comes solely from the DI gap.
Purpose
Quick, at-a-glance DMI state that remains consistent across timeframes while letting you tune thresholds and visuals to your chart.
ADX Volatility Waves [BOSWaves]ADX Volatility Waves - Trend-Weighted Volatility Mapping with State-Based Wave Transitions
Overview
ADX Volatility Waves is a regime-aware volatility framework designed to map statistically significant price extremes through adaptive wave structures driven by trend strength.
Rather than treating volatility as a static dispersion metric, this indicator conditions all volatility expansion, contraction, and zone placement on ADX-derived trend intensity. Price behavior is interpreted through wave-like transitions between balance, expansion, and exhaustion states rather than isolated band interactions.
The result is a dynamic, gradient-based wave system that visually encodes volatility cycles and regime shifts in real time, allowing traders to contextualize price movement within trend-weighted volatility waves.
Price is evaluated not by static thresholds, but by its position and progression within adaptive volatility waves shaped by directional strength.
Conceptual Framework
ADX Volatility Waves is built on the premise that volatility unfolds in waves, not straight lines.
Traditional volatility tools identify dispersion but fail to account for how volatility behaves differently across trend regimes. By embedding ADX directly into volatility construction, this indicator ensures that volatility waves expand during strong directional phases and compress during weak or transitioning regimes.
Three guiding principles define the framework:
Volatility must be conditioned on trend strength
Extremes occur within zones, not at lines
Signals should emerge from completed wave transitions, not instantaneous touches
This reframes analysis from reactive mean-reversion toward regime-aware wave interpretation.
Theoretical Foundation
The indicator fuses directional movement theory with statistical volatility modeling.
Bollinger-derived dispersion provides the structural base, while ADX normalization controls the amplitude of volatility waves. As ADX increases, volatility waves widen and deepen; as ADX weakens, waves compress and tighten around equilibrium.
From this foundation, extended upper and lower wave zones are constructed and smoothed to represent statistically significant expansion and contraction phases.
At its core are three interacting systems:
ADX-Controlled Volatility Engine : Standard deviation is dynamically scaled using normalized ADX values, producing trend-weighted volatility waves.
Wave Zone Construction : Smoothed volatility boundaries are offset and expanded to form upper and lower wave zones, defining overextension and compression regions.
State-Based Wave Transition Logic : Signals occur only after price completes a full wave cycle: expansion into an extreme wave zone followed by a confirmed return to equilibrium.
This structure ensures that signals reflect completed volatility waves, not transient noise.
How It Works
ADX Volatility Waves processes price action through layered wave mechanics:
Trend-Weighted Volatility Calculation : Volatility boundaries are dynamically adjusted using ADX influence, allowing wave amplitude to scale with trend strength.
Structural Smoothing : Volatility boundaries are smoothed to stabilize wave geometry and reduce short-term distortions.
Wave Offset & Expansion : Upper and lower wave zones are positioned beyond equilibrium and expanded proportionally to volatility range, forming clearly defined expansion waves.
Gradient Wave Depth Mapping : Each wave zone is subdivided into multiple gradient layers, visually encoding increasing extremity as price moves deeper into a wave.
Wave State Tracking & Cooldown Control : The system tracks prior wave occupancy, enforces neutral stabilization periods, and applies cooldowns to prevent overlapping wave signals.
Compression Detection : Volatility width monitoring identifies compression phases, highlighting conditions where new volatility waves are likely to form.
Together, these processes create a continuous, adaptive wave map of volatility behavior.
Interpretation
ADX Volatility Waves reframes market reading around volatility cycles:
Upper Volatility Waves (Red Gradient) : Represent upside expansion phases. Deeper wave penetration indicates increased overextension relative to trend-adjusted volatility.
Lower Volatility Waves (Green Gradient) : Represent downside expansion phases. Sustained presence signals pressure, while exits toward balance suggest wave completion.
Equilibrium Zone : The neutral region between volatility waves. Confirmed re-entry into this zone marks the completion of a wave cycle and forms the basis for BUY and SELL signals.
Regime Context via ADX : Strong ADX regimes widen waves, reducing premature reversal signals. Weak ADX regimes compress waves, increasing sensitivity to reversion.
Wave progression and completion matter more than single-bar interactions.
Signal Logic & Visual Cues
ADX Volatility Waves produces single-entry BUY and SELL labels as its visual cues, plotted only when price first enters a volatility wave zone after the defined cooldown period.
Buy Signal (Bottom Zone Entry) : A BUY label appears when price enters the lower volatility wave (oversold zone). This highlights potential expansion into undervalued extremes, providing visual context for trend assessment rather than a guaranteed execution trigger.
Sell Signal (Top Zone Entry) : A SELL label appears when price enters the upper volatility wave (overbought zone). This marks potential overextension into upper volatility extremes, serving as a contextual indicator of trend stress.
All labels respect cooldown tracking to prevent clustering. Alerts are tied directly to these zone-entry signals, and a separate alert monitors volatility squeezes for awareness of compression periods.
Strategy Integration
ADX Volatility Waves integrates cleanly into volatility-aware trading frameworks:
Wave Context Mapping : Use wave depth to assess expansion and exhaustion risk rather than forcing immediate entries.
Transition-Based Execution : Prioritize BUY and SELL signals formed after confirmed wave completion.
Trend-Regime Filtering : In strong ADX regimes, treat waves as continuation pressure. In weak regimes, favor completed wave reversions.
Volatility Cycle Awareness : Monitor compression phases to anticipate the emergence of new volatility waves.
Multi-Timeframe Alignment : Apply higher-timeframe ADX regimes to contextualize lower-timeframe wave behavior.
Technical Implementation Details
Core Engine : ADX-normalized volatility expansion
Wave System : Smoothed, offset, expanded volatility waves
Visualization : Multi-layer gradient wave zones
Signal Logic : State-based wave transitions with cooldown enforcement
Alerts : Wave entry, wave completion, volatility compression
Performance Profile : Lightweight, real-time optimized overlay
Optimal Application Parameters
Timeframe Guidance:
1 - 5 min : Short-term volatility waves and intraday transitions
15 - 60 min : Structured intraday wave cycles
4H - Daily : Macro volatility regimes and expansion phases
Suggested Baseline Configuration:
BB Length : 20
BB StdDev : 1.5
ADX Length : 14
ADX Influence : 0.8
Wave Offset : 1.0
Wave Width : 1.0
Neutral Confirmation : 5 bars
These suggested parameters should be used as a baseline; their effectiveness depends on the asset volatility, liquidity, and preferred entry frequency, so fine-tuning is expected for optimal performance.
Performance Characteristics
High Effectiveness:
Markets exhibiting rhythmic volatility expansion and contraction
Assets with responsive ADX regime behavior
Reduced Effectiveness:
Erratic, news-driven price action
Illiquid markets with distorted volatility metrics
Integration Guidelines
Confluence : Combine with BOSWaves structure or trend tools
Discipline : Respect wave completion and cooldown logic
Risk Framing : Interpret wave depth probabilistically, not predictively
Regime Awareness : Always contextualize waves within ADX strength
Disclaimer
ADX Volatility Waves is a professional-grade volatility and regime-mapping tool. It does not predict price and does not guarantee profitability. Performance depends on market conditions, parameter calibration, and disciplined execution. BOSWaves recommends using this indicator as part of a comprehensive analytical framework incorporating trend, volatility, and structural context.
Manipulation Candle SystemThis indicator is based on One Candle Scalping Strategy by ProRealAlgos
## **Manipulation Candle System – Simple Explanation**
This indicator helps traders identify **potential market manipulation** during the **US stock market session (New York)** and highlights **key reversal signals**.
---
### **1. Daily ATR (Average True Range)**
* Measures the **average price movement** of the day.
* Helps determine if a move is **normal** or **abnormally large**.
* The indicator calculates **daily ATR** automatically.
* If 15 minute opening candle is more than 25% of Daily ATR, we can call it manipulation is happen .
---
### **2. 15-Minute Opening Candle Box**
* Highlights the **first 15-minute candle** of the US session.
* The box **extends for 2 hours** after the market opens.
* **Color indicates market condition**:
* **Red box** → the opening candle range is bigger than 25% of the daily ATR → potential **manipulation**.
* **Blue box** → the opening candle range is normal → **neutral session**.
* Helps traders visually spot when the market might be trying to **trap traders**.
---
### **3. 5-Minute Reversal Detection**
* Looks for **reversal candle patterns** on the 5-minute chart:
* Bullish engulfing or strong bullish pin → **buy reversal**.
* Bearish engulfing or strong bearish pin → **sell reversal**.
* Only checks during the **US session**, after 15 minute opening candle.
* Helps traders **time entries** in the direction of potential market reversals.
---
### **4. Buy / Sell Signals**
* Shows **triangle markers** on the chart:
* **Green triangle below candle** → buy signal.
* **Red triangle above candle** → sell signal.
* The signal text also indicates:
* `"BUY (Trap Reversal)"` → if the reversal occurs during manipulation.
* `"BUY (Normal Reversal)"` → if the reversal occurs during a neutral session.
* `"SELL (Trap Reversal)"` → if a sell reversal occurs during manipulation.
* `"SELL (Normal Reversal)"` → otherwise.
---
### **5. Info Table**
* Appears at the **top-right** of the chart.
* Shows:
1. Daily ATR value.
2. 15-minute opening candle range.
3. Session condition → `"MANIPULATION"` or `"NEUTRAL"`.
4. Current reversal signal text.
---
### **How a New Trader Can Use It**
1. Look at the **color of the opening box**:
* Red → be cautious, price may trap traders.
* Blue → normal market behavior.
2. Watch for **reversal signals** on the 5-minute chart.
3. Use the **info table** to confirm ATR, session bias, and signals.
4. Combine this with **risk management** before entering trades.
Vector Trinity I: Structure [VWAP-DBB] This indicator is **Part 1** of the "Vector Trinity" trading system—a comprehensive, data-driven framework designed to analyze market behavior through three distinct physical dimensions:
* **I: Structure (Space):** Defines the battlefield and volatility boundaries (Current Indicator).
* **II: Impulse (Time):** Identifies momentum ignition and energy release.
* **III: Flow (Energy):** Validates the move via volume and capital flow.
**2. Core Logic: Why Rolling VWAP?**
Most standard Bollinger Bands use a Simple Moving Average (SMA) as the centerline. The flaw in SMA is that it treats every candle equally, regardless of trading activity.
**Vector Trinity I** replaces the SMA with a **Rolling VWAP (Volume-Weighted Average Price)** over a rolling window (default 20).
* **Data Logic:** Price combined with Volume represents the true "cost basis" of the market.
* **Behavior:** The centerline becomes "sticky" during high-volume nodes and moves faster when real capital enters. It represents the *True Mean* of the market structure.
**3. The Dual-Band "Highway" Structure**
Instead of a single channel, this system utilizes a Double Bollinger Band (DBB) architecture based on Standard Deviations (StdDev) from the VWAP:
* **The Noise Zone (Basis to 1.0 StdDev):** The empty space in the middle. Price action here is often choppy and directionless.
* **The Acceleration Zone (1.0 to 2.0 StdDev):** The filled "Cloud." When candles close and stay within this zone, it indicates a strong trend (The Highway).
* **The Reversion Zone (> 2.0 StdDev):** Price is statistically extended and may revert to the mean.
**4. Volatility Squeeze Detection**
The indicator integrates a mechanical "Squeeze" detection based on the relationship between the Bollinger Bands (Variance) and Keltner Channels (ATR).
* **Squeeze ON (Orange Cloud & Dots):** Daily variance is at extreme lows. Energy is compressing. Do not trade direction; prepare for a breakout.
* **Squeeze OFF (Grey Cloud):** Expansion phase. Volatility is returning to the market.
**5. How to Use**
* **Step 1:** Observe the **Purple Line (VWAP)**. Its slope dictates the dominant trend structure.
* **Step 2:** Look for **Orange Zones**. This indicates a "Squeeze." Wait for the cloud to turn Grey.
* **Step 3:** Trade the breakout when price closes inside the "Acceleration Zone" (between the inner and outer bands) accompanied by Volume.
**Settings:**
* **Rolling Length:** 20 (Standard for swing/day trading).
* **Inner/Outer Bands:** 1.0 / 2.0 (The standard trend definition).
* **Squeeze Sensitivity:** 1.5 (Standard KC Multiplier).
---
### **中文说明**
**1. 简介：矢量三位一体系统 (Vector Trinity)**
本指标是“矢量三位一体”交易系统的 **第一部分**。这是一套基于数据逻辑的综合分析框架，旨在通过三个物理维度解构市场行为：
* **I: Structure 结构 (空间)：** 定义价格运行的战场边界与波动率结构（本指标）。
* **II: Impulse 脉冲 (时间)：** 识别动能的点火与能量释放。
* **III: Flow 流向 (能量)：** 通过成交量与资金流验证突破的真伪。
**2. 核心逻辑：为什么要用 Rolling VWAP？**
传统的布林带使用简单移动平均线 (SMA) 作为中轨。SMA 的缺陷在于它平等地对待每一根 K 线，而忽略了成交量的权重。
**Vector Trinity I** 使用 **Rolling VWAP (滚动成交量加权平均价)** 替代了 SMA。
* **数据逻辑：** 只有结合了成交量的价格，才代表市场真实的“平均持仓成本”。
* **表现特征：** 在放量交易区，中轨会表现出更强的支撑/阻力特性；在缩量区则表现平滑。它代表了市场结构的*真实均值*。
**3. 双通道“高速公路”结构**
本系统不使用单条轨道，而是基于 VWAP 的标准差 (StdDev) 构建了双重布林带 (DBB) 架构：
* **噪音区 (中轨 到 1.0 标准差)：** 中间的空白区域。在此区域内的价格通常是无方向的震荡。
* **加速区 (1.0 到 2.0 标准差)：** 填充颜色的“云带”。当 K 线收盘并运行于此区域时，代表趋势确立，价格进入了“高速公路”。
* **回归区 (> 2.0 标准差)：** 价格在统计学上过热，可能面临均值回归。
**4. 波动率挤压监测 (Squeeze)**
指标内置了基于布林带（方差）与肯特纳通道（ATR）对比的机械化“挤压”监测。
* **挤压状态 (橙色云带 & 底部圆点)：** 每日方差处于极低值 (Variance at extreme lows)。市场正在积蓄能量。此时不应猜测方向，而应等待爆发。
* **扩张状态 (灰色云带)：** 挤压结束，波动率回归，趋势展开。
**5. 使用方法**
* **第一步：** 观察 **紫色中轨 (VWAP)**。它的倾斜方向决定了主要的结构趋势。
* **第二步：** 寻找 **橙色区域**。这代表“挤压”正在发生。耐心等待云带变回灰色。
* **第三步：** 当价格突破并收盘在“加速区”（内轨与外轨之间）时，配合成交量介入交易。
**参数设置：**
* **Rolling Length (周期)：** 20 (波段/日内交易的标准设置)。
* **Inner/Outer Bands (内外轨)：** 1.0 / 2.0 (经典的趋势定义范围)。
* **Squeeze Sensitivity (敏感度)：** 1.5 (标准肯特纳通道倍数)。
GARCH Adaptive Volatility & Momentum Predictor
💡 I. Indicator Concept: GARCH Adaptive Volatility & Momentum Predictor
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The GARCH Adaptive Momentum Speed indicator provides a powerful, forward-looking
view on market risk and momentum. Unlike standard moving averages or static
volatility indicators (like ATR), GARCH forecasts the Conditional Volatility (σ_t)
for the next bar, based on the principle of volatility clustering.
The indicator consists of two essential components:
1. GARCH Volatility (Level): The primary forecast of the expected magnitude of
price movement (risk).
2. Vol. Speed (Momentum): The first derivative of the GARCH forecast, showing
whether market risk is accelerating or decelerating. This component is the
main visual signal, displayed as a dynamic histogram.
⚙️ II. Key Features and Adaptive Logic
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
* Dynamic Coefficient Adaptation: The indicator automatically adjusts the GARCH
coefficients (α and β) based on the chart's timeframe (TF):
- Intraday TFs (M1-H4): Uses higher α and lower β for quicker reaction
to recent shocks.
- Daily/Weekly TFs (D, W): Uses lower α and higher β for a smoother,
more persistent long-term forecast.
* Momentum Visualization: The Vol. Speed component is plotted as a dynamic
histogram (fill) that automatically changes color based on the direction of
acceleration (Green for up, Red for down).
📊 III. Interpretation Guide
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- GARCH Volatility (Blue Line): The predicted level of market risk. Use this to
gauge overall position sizing and stop loss width.
- Vol. Speed (Green Histogram): Momentum is ACCELERATING (Risk is increasing rapidly).
A strong signal that momentum is building, often preceding a breakout.
- Vol. Speed (Red Histogram): Momentum is DECELERATING (Risk is contracting).
Indicates momentum is fading, often associated with market consolidation.
🎯 IV. Trading Application
-----------------------------------------------------------------------------
- Breakout Timing: Look for a strong, high GREEN histogram bar. This suggests
the volatility pressure is increasing rapidly, and a breakout may be imminent.
- Consolidation: Small, shrinking RED histogram bars signal that market energy
is draining, ideal for tight consolidation patterns.
SMI Trigger System - Lower - NPR21/ChatGPTSMI Trigger System (Lower) — Buy Low / Hrugu (Modified)
This indicator is a modified version of the original SMI Trigger System created by Buy Low, with later enhancements by Hrugu, published with permission.
The script is a lower-pane Smoothed Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI) designed to deliver clear, visually intuitive momentum signals without unnecessary clutter. This version focuses exclusively on SMI behavior and removes auxiliary indicators to keep signals clean, readable, and consistent across timeframes.
Key Features
Smoothed SMI line with dynamic color changes based on momentum direction
Raw SMI line for additional reference
Zero-line split cloud shading for quick bullish/bearish momentum identification
Upper and lower SMI reference levels for overbought/oversold context
Exact-bar SMI color-flip triangle markers for immediate visual confirmation
Adjustable triangle size and offset so markers do not overlap the SMI line
Fully customizable colors for:
Zero line
Smoothed SMI (up/down)
Raw SMI
Cloud above and below zero
Upper and lower SMI levels
How to Use
This indicator is designed to highlight momentum shifts, not to predict price. It works best when combined with price structure, trend context, or higher-timeframe bias.
1. SMI Line & Color Changes
The smoothed SMI line changes color based on momentum direction:
Up color → momentum strengthening
Down color → momentum weakening
A color change often signals a potential momentum shift.
2. SMI Color-Flip Triangles
Green ▲ triangle below the SMI
Appears when the smoothed SMI turns upward (bearish → bullish momentum).
Red ▼ triangle above the SMI
Appears when the smoothed SMI turns downward (bullish → bearish momentum).
Triangles are plotted on the same bar the SMI changes color and are offset so they do not overlap the SMI line.
These markers are intended as visual confirmations, not standalone trade signals.
3. Zero Line & Cloud
The zero line separates bullish and bearish momentum regimes.
Cloud above zero → bullish momentum bias
Cloud below zero → bearish momentum bias
Stronger signals often occur when SMI flips in the direction of the cloud.
4. Upper & Lower SMI Levels
Upper and lower reference levels help identify extended momentum.
Momentum flips near or beyond these levels may indicate:
Exhaustion
Potential pullbacks
Trend continuation setups when aligned with higher-timeframe direction
5. Best Practices
Use this indicator as a confirmation tool, not a prediction tool.
Combine with:
Market structure
Support and resistance
Trend direction
Volume or price action
Works well on tick charts, intraday timeframes, and higher-timeframe analysis.
Additional Notes
Triangles do not repaint
All visual elements are user-configurable
No ADX or Awesome Oscillator components
Designed for clarity, speed, and ease of interpretation
This script is intended for analytical and educational purposes only and does not constitute trading advice.
CT Market Fragility & Systemic Risk Monitor v1.0CT ⊕ Market Fragility & Systemic Risk Monitor v1.0
Systemic Stress & Market Regime Monitor
OVERVIEW
Wall Street-grade structural monitoring now open-source.
CT ⊕ Market Fragility & Systemic Risk Monitor v1.0 is a real-time systemic risk tool designed to detect fragility before it hits price. Built by former institutional traders, it delivers structural insight typically reserved for desks inside hedge funds and global macro desks.
This isn’t about finding entries or exits, it’s about understanding the environment you're trading in, and recognizing when it's shifting.
WHAT IT DOES
• Monitors six key market domains: Equities, Rates/Credit, FX (USD stress), Commodities, Crypto, and Macro
• Detects volatility stress, cross-domain coupling, and regime synchronization
• Classifies market structure into Normal → Fragile → Critical
• Shows a live dashboard with scores, coupling levels, and structural state
• Plots event markers (T1, T2, T3) for structural transitions
• Implements hysteresis logic to model post-stress 'memory
• Supports both single-domain ("Local Mode") and system-wide monitoring
HOW IT WORKS
This engine does not rely on traditional TA. No moving averages. No MACD. No patterns. No guesswork.
Instead, it measures how markets are behaving beneath price detecting when stress is:
• Building internally
• Spreading across domains
• Synchronizing into systemic fragility
T1 (🟠) — Early instability: acceleration in market coupling
T2 (🔵) — Fragile regime: multiple domains simultaneously stressed
T3 (🔴) — Critical regime: synchronized, system-wide stress
These are not buy/sell signals. They are structural regime alerts, the same kind used by institutions to cut risk before stress cascades.
WHY IT MATTERS
Most retail tools are reactive. They interpret surface-level patterns after the move.
This tool is different. It’s proactive – measuring pressure before it breaks structure.
Institutions have used structural fragility models like this for years. This script helps close that gap, giving everyday traders the same early warnings that pros use to reduce exposure and sidestep systemic blowups.
It’s not about finding the edge.
It’s about not getting crushed when the system breaks.
Whether you trade crypto, stocks, FX, or macro, this engine helps answer:
• Is the system stable right now?
• Are stress levels rising across markets?
• Is it time to tighten risk?
Institutions don’t wait for breakouts. They monitor structure.
Now, you can too.
KEY FEATURES
• Works on any asset class and any timeframe
• Fully customizable domain selection
• Three-tier structural alert system (T1–T3)
• Real-time dashboard: stress scores, states, and coupling levels
• Hysteresis modeling: post-stress “memory” detection
• Supports single-domain (local) or multi-domain (systemic) monitoring
• PineScript alerts built-in
RECOMMENDED USE
Active traders - all asset classes
Use the dashboard and T1–T3 alerts to stay aware of structural risk in real time.
Track multi-timeframe alignment to detect where risk originates and how it spreads across markets.
Crypto trader s
Monitor upstream domains (Equities, FX, Rates, Macro) to detect pressure before it reaches crypto.
Identify reflexive stress before Bitcoin reacts — and stay ahead of contagion events.
Macro & systematic traders
Use T1–T3 transitions as volatility filters, exposure governors, or dynamic risk overlays.
Build regime-aware models that adapt to shifting systemic conditions.
Examples & Visuals
Question: Would it have helped to know that at 9:30 on October 9th and again at 10:00 on October 10th that critical states were detected in the structural behavior of Bitcoin? Take a look:
30 min chart BTC shows two distinct T3 (critical) regime detections October 9th and 10:30 October 10th
5m BTC chart reveals high frequency instability for the same period, identifying instability, fragility, criticality
The 30minute BTC chart at 16:30 Friday October 10th,, a few hours after first detecting critical systemic risk
RISK DISCLAIMER
This is a structural analysis tool, not a predictive signal. It does not provide financial advice, trade entries, or forecasts. Use at your own risk. Full disclaimer embedded in the script.
Complexity Trading - From Wall St to Main St
No patterns. No repainting. No mysticism. Just logic, math, science and market structure - now made accessible to everyone.
Developer of LPPL Critical Pulse (LPPLCP), the Temporal Phase Model (TPM) and other
other advanced structural and attractor based systems inspired by Sornette’s LPPL framework and other differentiated thinkers.
Note on Methodology
This tool is not predictive, and not designed for academic publication.
It is a real-time structural monitoring system inspired by academically established concepts,
including LPPL attractor dynamics, cross-asset coupling, reflexivity, and phase regime transitions, implemented within the real-time constraints of PineScript, and intended for visual, exploratory, and diagnostic use.
Hybrid Strategy: Trend/ORB/MTFHybrid Strategy: Trend + ORB + Multi-Timeframe Matrix
This script is a comprehensive "Trading Manager" designed to filter out noise and identify high-probability breakout setups. It combines three powerful concepts into a single, clean chart interface: Trend Alignment, Opening Range Breakout (ORB), and Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Analysis.
It is designed to prevent "analysis paralysis" by providing a unified Dashboard that confirms if the trend is aligned across 5 different timeframes before you take a trade.
How it Works
The strategy relies on the "Golden Trio" of confluence:
1. Trend Definition (The Setup) Before looking for entries, the script analyzes the immediate trend. A bullish trend is defined as:
Price is above the Session VWAP.
The fast EMA (9) is above the slow EMA (21). (The inverse applies for bearish trends).
2. The Signal (The Trigger) The script draws the Opening Range (default: first 15 minutes of the session).
Buy Signal: Price breaks above the Opening Range High while the Trend is Bullish.
Sell Signal: Price breaks below the Opening Range Low while the Trend is Bearish.
3. The Confirmation (The Filter) A signal is only valid if the Higher Timeframe (default: 60m) agrees with the direction. If the 1m chart says "Buy" but the 60m chart is bearish, the signal is filtered out to prevent false breakouts.
Key Features
The Matrix Dashboard A zero-lag, real-time table in the corner of your screen that monitors 5 user-defined timeframes (e.g., 5m, 15m, 30m, 60m, 4H).
Trend: Checks if Price > EMA 21.
VWAP: Checks if Price > VWAP.
ORB: Checks if Price is currently above/below the Opening Range of that session.
D H/L: Warns if price is near the Daily High or Low.
PD H/L: Warns if price is near the Previous Daily High or Low.
Visual Order Blocks The script automatically identifies valid Order Blocks (sequences of consecutive candles followed by a strong explosive move).
Chart: Draws Green/Red zones extending to the right, showing where price may react.
Dashboard: Displays the exact High, Low, and Average price of the most recent Order Blocks for precision planning.
Risk Management (Trailing Stop) Once a trade is active, the script plots Chandelier Exit dots (ATR-based trailing stop) to help you manage the trade and lock in profits during trend runs.
Visual Guide (Chart Legend)
⬜ Gray Box: Represents the Opening Range (first 15 minutes). This is your "No Trade Zone." Wait for price to break out of this box.
🟢 Green Line: The Opening Range High. A break above this line signals potential Bullish momentum.
🔴 Red Line: The Opening Range Low. A break below this line signals potential Bearish momentum.
🟢 Green / 🔴 Red Zones (Boxes): These are Order Blocks.
🟢 Green Zone: A Bullish Order Block (Demand). Expect price to potentially bounce up from here.
🔴 Red Zone: A Bearish Order Block (Supply). Expect price to potentially reject down from here.
⚪ Dots (Trailing Stop):
🟢 Green Dots: These appear below price during a Bullish trend. They represent your suggested Stop Loss.
🔴 Red Dots: These appear above price during a Bearish trend.
🏷️ Buy / Sell Labels:
BUY: Triggers when Price breaks the Green Line + Trend is Bullish + HTF is Bullish.
SELL: Triggers when Price breaks the Red Line + Trend is Bearish + HTF is Bearish.
Settings
Session: Customizable RTH (Regular Trading Hours) to filter out pre-market noise.
Matrix Timeframes: 5 fixed slots to choose which timeframes you want to monitor.
Order Blocks: Adjust the sensitivity and lookback period for Order Block detection.
Risk: Customize the ATR multiplier for the trailing stop.
Disclaimer
This tool is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage your risk properly.
SMI Trigger System The SMI Trigger System is a lower-pane momentum indicator based on a Hull-smoothed Stochastic Momentum Index (SMI). It is designed to assist in identifying potential momentum shifts by highlighting signal alignment and level interactions.
This indicator is intended to be used as part of a broader analysis framework. Confluence between trend, structure, and higher-timeframe context defines the setup, while SMI signal behavior may be used for confirmation.
The script can be applied across multiple timeframes and markets. It does not generate trade signals on its own and should be used alongside additional analysis and risk management techniques.
For educational purposes only. Not financial advice.
Session HeatmapIntraday Seasonality
Overview
Analyzes historical patterns by time of day. Identifies when volatility, volume, and open interest changes tend to be highest or lowest.
Features
Multiple Metrics: TR (volatility), Volume, and Open Interest changes
Flexible Grouping: View patterns by weekday or month to spot day-of-week or seasonal effects
Heatmap Visualization: Blue (low) to Red (high) color scale for quick pattern recognition
Percentile Mode: Reduces outlier impact by using 5th-95th percentile range
Timezone Support: Display in UTC alongside your local time
Metrics Explained
TR: Volatility - when markets move most
Volume: Liquidity - when participation is highest
OI Increase: When new positions are opened
OI Decrease: When positions are closed
OI Net: Net open interest change
Usage
Set your timezone and preferred slot size (30min/1H)
Choose a date range (relative or custom)
Select a metric to analyze
Use "Group By" to see weekday or monthly patterns
Switch to Percentile color scale if outliers dominate
Notes
Chart timeframe should be equal to or smaller than Slot Size
OI metrics require Binance Perpetual symbols
DST is not automatically adjusted; consider seasonal shifts for US/EU sessions
Session ATR Progression Tracker📊 Session ATR Progression Tracker - SIYL Regression Trading Tool
Track how much of your instrument's 7-day Average True Range (ATR) has been covered during the current trading session. This indicator is specifically designed for regression traders who follow the "Stay In Your Lane" (SIYL) methodology, helping you identify when the probability of mean reversion significantly increases. If you are interested in more on that check out Rod Casselli and tradersdevgroup.com.
🎯 Key Features:
• Real-time ATR Coverage Percentage - See at a glance what percentage of the 7-day ATR has been covered in the current session
• SIYL-Optimized Thresholds - See at a glance when the instrument has achieved 80% and 100% ATR coverage, the proven thresholds where mean reversion probability increases (customizable)
• Flexible Session Modes:
- Daily: Resets at calendar day change
- Session: Uses exchange-defined trading sessions
- Custom Session: Set your exact session start/end times (perfect for futures traders and international markets)
• Visual Alerts - Color-coded display (gray → orange → red) and optional background highlighting
• Repositionable Display - Choose from 9 screen positions to avoid chart clutter
• Session Markers - Green triangles mark the start of each new session
• Detailed Stats - View current range, ATR value, session high/low, and session status
💡 Why Use This Indicator?
This tool is built around a proven concept: regression trading becomes significantly more effective once a session has achieved at least 80% of its 7-day ATR. At this threshold, the probability of price reverting to mean increases substantially, creating higher-probability trade setups for SIYL practitioners.
Benefits for regression traders:
- Identify optimal entry points when mean reversion probability is highest (≥80% ATR coverage)
- Avoid premature regression entries before adequate range has been established
- Recognize when daily moves have "earned their range" and are ripe for reversal
- Time fade-the-move and counter-trend strategies with statistical backing
- Improve win rates by trading only after proven probability thresholds are met
⚙️ Setup Instructions:
1. Add the indicator to your chart
2. Select your preferred "Reset Mode" (recommend "Custom Session" for futures/international markets)
3. If using Custom Session, enter your session times in 24-hour format (e.g., 0930-1600 for US stocks, 1700-1600 for CME futures)
4. Adjust alert thresholds if desired (default: 80% and 100% - proven SIYL thresholds)
5. Position the display where it's most visible on your chart
📈 Works Across All Markets:
Stocks • Futures • Forex • Indices • Crypto • Commodities
Perfect for regression traders, mean reversion specialists, and SIYL practitioners who want to trade with probability on their side by entering only after the session has "earned its range."
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Tip: For futures contracts with overnight sessions that span calendar days (like MES, MNQ, MYM), use "Custom Session" mode with your exchange's official session times for accurate tracking.
Bollinger Bands Forecast with Signals (Zeiierman)█ Overview
Bollinger Bands Forecast with Signals (Zeiierman) extends classic Bollinger Bands into a forward-looking framework. Instead of only showing where volatility has been, it projects where the basis (midline) and band width are likely to drift next, based on recent trend and volatility behavior.
The projection is built from the measured slopes of the Bollinger basis, the standard deviation (or ATR, depending on the mode), and a volatility “breathing” component. On top of that, the script includes an optional projected price path that can be blended with a deterministic random walk, plus rejection signals to highlight failed band breaks.
█ How It Works
⚪ Bollinger Core
The script first computes standard Bollinger Bands using the selected Source, Length, and Multiplier:
Basis = SMA(Source, Length)
Band width = Multiplier × StDev(Source, Length)
Upper/Lower = Basis ± Width
This remains the “live” (non-forecast) structure on the chart.
⚪ Trend & Volatility Slope Estimation
To project forward, the indicator measures directional drift and volatility drift using linear regression differences:
Basis slope from the Bollinger basis
StDev slope from the Bollinger deviation
ATR slope for ATR-based projection mode
These slopes drive the forecast bands forward, reflecting the market’s recent directional and volatility regime.
⚪ Projection Engine (Forecast Bands)
At the last bar, the indicator draws projected basis, upper, and lower lines out to Forecast Bars. The projected basis can be:
Trend (straight linear projection)
Curved (ease-in/out transition toward projected endpoints)
Smoothed (extra smoothing on projected basis/width)
⚪ Price Path Projection + Optional Random Walk
In addition to projecting the bands, the script can draw a price forecast path made of a small number of zigzag swings.
Each swing targets a point offset from the projected basis by a multiple of the projected half-width (“width units”).
Decay gradually reduces swing size as the forecast deepens.
The Optional Random Walk Blend adds a deterministic drift component to the zigzag path. It’s not true randomness; it’s a stable pseudo-random sequence, so the drawing doesn’t jump around on refresh, while still adding “natural” variation.
⚪ Rejection Signals
Signals are based on failed attempts to break a band:
Bear Signal (Down): price tries to push above the upper band, then falls back inside, while still closing above the basis.
Bull Signal (Up): price tries to push below the lower band, then returns back inside, while still closing below the basis.
█ How to Use
⚪ Forward Support/Resistance Corridors
Treat the projected upper/lower bands as a future volatility envelope, not a guarantee:
The upper projection ≈ is likely a resistance level if the regime persists
The lower projection ≈ is likely a support level if the regime persists
Best used for trade planning, targets, and “where price could travel” under similar conditions.
⚪ Regime Read: Trend + Volatility
The projection shape is informative:
Rising basis + expanding width → trend with increasing volatility (needs wider stops / more caution)
Flat basis + compressing width → contraction regime (often precedes expansion)
⚪ Signals for Mean-Reversion / Failed Breakouts
The rejection markers are useful for fade-style setups:
A Down signal near/after upper-band failure can imply rotation back toward the basis.
An Up signal near/after lower-band failure can imply snap-back toward the basis.
With MA filtering enabled, signals are constrained to align with the broader bias, helping reduce chop-driven noise.
█ Related Publications
Donchian Predictive Channel (Zeiierman)
█ Settings
⚪ Bollinger Band
Controls the live Bollinger Bands on the chart.
Source – Price used for calculations.
Length – Lookback period; higher = smoother, lower = more reactive.
Multiplier – Bandwidth; higher = wider bands, lower = tighter bands.
⚪ Forecast
Controls the forward projection of the Bollinger Bands.
Forecast Bars – How far into the future the bands are projected.
Trend Length – Lookback used to estimate trend and volatility slopes.
Forecast Band Mode – Defines projection behavior (linear, curved, breathing, ATR-based, or smoothed).
⚪ Price Forecast
Controls the projected price path inside the bands.
ZigZag Swings – Number of projected oscillations.
Amplitude – Distance from basis, measured in bandwidth units.
Decay – Shrinks swings further into the forecast.
⚪ Random-Walk
Adds controlled randomness to the price path.
Enable – Toggle random-walk influence.
Blend – Strength of randomness vs. zigzag.
Step Size – Size of random steps (band-width units).
Decay – Reduces randomness as the forecast deepens.
Seed – Changes the (stable) random sequence.
⚪ Signals
Controls rejection/mean-reversion signals.
Show Signals – Enable/disable signal markers.
MA Filter (Type/Length) – Filters signals by trend direction.
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Disclaimer
The content provided in my scripts, indicators, ideas, algorithms, and systems is for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice, investment recommendations, or a solicitation to buy or sell any financial instruments. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
HAR Volatility ATR (Multi-Asset) - Andreus VillalobosIndicator based on the HAR (Hyper-Realized Volatility) model.
Combines daily, weekly, and monthly ATRs to project:
– Most probable price range (90%)
– Most probable take profit (60%)
Does not generate entry signals.
Designed for use in conjunction with:
market structure, liquidity, and price action.
Works on Forex, Indices, Gold, and Cryptocurrencies.
HAR Volatility ATR v1.0 (Andreus Villalobos)
Indicator based on the HAR (Hyper-Realized Volatility) model.
Combines daily, weekly, and monthly ATRs to project:
– Most probable price range (90%)
– Most probable take profit (60%)
Does not generate entry signals.
Designed for use in conjunction with:
market structure, liquidity, and price action.
Works on Forex, Indices, Gold, and Cryptocurrencies.
Renko Average Bricks This indicator calculates the average RENKO brick streaks. Streaks=consecutive bricks of the same color. EX. G= 1 streak of 1. GGG = 1 streak of 3. RR 1 streak of 2. Single bricks count. There is the option for look back period which can be changed but Defaults to 50. Calculates the last 50 completed green streaks and then averages them. Same with red streaks. Only closed bricks count.
Very Simple and can be used for targets, ect.
Cheers
TRV & nTRV - Trimmed Range VolatilityGrid bots require stable volatility measurement - ATR becomes misleading when gaps and sudden spikes distort the average. TRV (Trimmed Range Volatility) is an advanced version of ATR: it filters outliers at the extremes (highest and lowest ranges) and remains unaffected by gaps. This provides real-time, accurate volatility measurement for grid bot setup.Grid bots require stable volatility measurement - ATR becomes misleading when gaps and sudden spikes distort the average. TRV (Trimmed Range Volatility) is an advanced version of ATR: it filters outliers at the extremes (highest and lowest ranges) and remains unaffected by gaps. This provides real-time, accurate volatility measurement for grid bot setup.
Why We Developed TRV?
When a gap or sudden spike occurs in the morning, this extreme movement affects standard ATR calculations for an extended period. Even if the price moves sideways for the rest of the day, ATR remains elevated. This causes grid bots to operate with unnecessarily wide spacing and execute fewer trades.
TRV Advantages:
✅ Unaffected by Gaps: Opening gaps don't distort the calculation
✅ Extreme Point Elimination: Filters the largest and smallest outlier candles
✅ Real-Time Accuracy: Shows current market volatility
✅ Grid Bot Optimization: Enables tighter and more efficient grid spacing
✅ Comparison Capability: Compare different stocks and timeframes with nTRV
Grid Bot Usage:
The TRV value is used directly to calculate the number of grid lines:
(Resistance - Support) / TRV = Number of Grid Lines
Example:
Resistance: $110
Support: $90
TRV: $2
Grid Count: (110-90)/2 = 10 grid lines
Features:
Two Filtering Modes: Manual (enter number) or Percentage-Based (automatic ratio)
Four Indicators in One: nTRV, TRV, ATR, and nATR all displayed on the same panel
nTRV: Normalized value (percentage-based, for stock comparison)
TRV: Absolute value (currency-based, for grid calculation)
ATR & nATR Included: Standard ATR and nATR for direct comparison with TRV
Comprehensive Analysis: Compare filtered (TRV) vs unfiltered (ATR) volatility side-by-side
Default: 10% top, 10% bottom outlier elimination
Conclusion:
TRV is an advanced version of ATR specifically designed for grid bot traders. By filtering outlier movements, it provides more stable and reliable volatility measurement. The indicator includes both TRV (filtered) and ATR (unfiltered) on the same chart, giving traders a comprehensive view to make informed decisions. This dual-display approach enables more efficient grid strategies and increased trading frequency.
GARCH Volume Volatility [MarkitTick]Title: GARCH Volume Volatility
Description
Overview
The GARCH Volume Volatility (GV) indicator is a sophisticated quantitative tool designed to analyze the rate of change in market participation. While the vast majority of technical indicators focus on Price Volatility (how much price moves), this script focuses on Volume Volatility (how unstable the participation is).
Market volume is rarely distributed evenly; it tends to cluster. Periods of high activity are often followed by more high activity, and periods of calm tend to persist. This behavior is known as "heteroskedasticity." This script utilizes an Exponentially Weighted Moving Average (EWMA) model—a core component of Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH) frameworks—to model these changing variance regimes.
By isolating volume volatility from raw volume data, this tool helps traders distinguish between sustainable liquidity flows and erratic, unsustainable volume shocks that often precede market reversals or breakouts.
Methodology and Calculations
1. Logarithmic vs. Percentage Returns
The foundation of this indicator is the calculation of "Volume Returns"—the period-over-period change in volume.
- The script defaults to Logarithmic Returns. In financial statistics, log returns are preferred because they normalize data that can vary wildly in magnitude (such as cryptocurrency volume spikes), providing a more symmetric view of changes.
- Users can opt for standard percentage changes if they prefer a linear approach.
2. Variance Proxy (Squared Returns)
To measure volatility, the direction of the volume change (up or down) matters less than the magnitude. The script squares the returns to create a "Variance Proxy." This ensures that a massive drop in volume is treated with the same statistical weight as a massive spike in volume—both represent a significant change in the volatility of participation.
3. GARCH-Style Smoothing (EWMA)
Standard Moving Averages (SMA) treat all data points in the lookback period equally. However, volatility is dynamic. This script uses an EWMA model with a tunable "Lambda" (Decay Factor).
- The Recursive Formula: The current calculation relies on a weighted average of the current variance and the previous period's smoothed variance.
- Memory Effect: This allows the indicator to "remember" recent volatility shocks while gradually letting their influence fade. This mimics the GARCH process of conditional variance.
4. Dynamic Statistical Thresholds
The final output is the Volatility (square root of variance). To make this data actionable, the script calculates a dynamic upper and lower limit based on the standard deviation (Z-Score) of the volatility itself over a user-defined lookback period.
How to Use
The indicator plots a histogram that categorizes the market into four distinct volatility regimes:
1. High Volatility (Red Histogram)
Trigger: Volatility > High Band (Upper Standard Deviation).
Interpretation: This signals an extreme anomaly in volume stability. This is not just "high volume," but "erratic volume behavior." This often occurs at:
- Capitulation bottoms (panic selling).
- Euphoric tops (blow-off tops).
- Major news events or earnings releases.
2. Elevated Volatility (Maroon Histogram)
Trigger: Volatility > Mean Average.
Interpretation: The market is in an active state. Participation is changing rapidly, but within statistically normal bounds. This is common during healthy, trending moves where new participants are entering the market steadily.
3. Normal/Low Volatility (Green Histogram)
Trigger: Volatility is within the lower bands.
Interpretation: The market volume is stable. There are no sudden shocks in participation. This is typical of consolidation phases or "creeping" trends where the price drifts without significant volume conviction.
4. Extremely Low Volatility (Bright Green/Transparent)
Trigger: Volatility < Low Band.
Interpretation: The "calm before the storm." When volume volatility collapses to near-zero, it implies that the market has reached a state of equilibrium or disinterest. Historically, volatility is cyclical; periods of extreme compression often lead to violent expansion.
Settings and Configuration
Core Settings
- Use EWMA: When checked (Default), uses the recursive GARCH-style calculation. If unchecked, it reverts to a simple SMA of variance, which is less sensitive to recent shocks but more stable.
- Log Returns: Uses natural log for calculations. Highly recommended for assets with exponential growth or large volume ranges.
- Length: The baseline period for the calculation.
- Threshold Lookback: The number of bars used to calculate the Mean and Standard Deviation bands.
- EWMA Lambda: The decay factor (0.0 to 1.0). A value of 0.94 is standard for risk metrics.
-- Higher Lambda (e.g., 0.98): The indicator reacts slower and is smoother (long memory).
-- Lower Lambda (e.g., 0.80): The indicator reacts very fast to new data (short memory).
Visuals
- Show Thresholds: Toggles the visibility of the statistical bands on the chart.
- High Band (StdDev): The multiplier for the upper warning zone. Default is 1.5 deviations. Increasing this to 2.0 or 3.0 will filter for only the most extreme events.
Disclaimer This tool is for educational and technical analysis purposes only. Breakouts can fail (fake-outs), and past geometric patterns do not guarantee future price action. Always manage risk and use this tool in conjunction with other forms of analysis.
SUPERTREND VALIDADO ADX EMAS VWAP # Modular Trading System - SuperTrend + ADX + Multi-Filter Confirmation
## Overview
Professional modular trading system designed for trend-following strategies on 4H timeframes. Features a clean, mobile-optimized interface with customizable filters and real-time status monitoring.
## Core Features
### Validated Components (Backtested)
- **SuperTrend (ATR 10, Multiplier 3.0)**: Primary trend direction filter with visual fill
- **ADX >23**: Trend strength confirmation (14-period)
- Proven performance: 52.11% win rate, 3.162 profit factor over 4 years
### Additional Filters (Optional)
- **DI Spread >9**: Directional movement confirmation
- **Volume > EMA20**: Volume confirmation above 20-period average
- **EMA System**: 7/21/50 with dynamic coloring
- **VWAP**: Daily volume-weighted average price
### Visual Elements
- **SuperTrend Line**: Green (bullish) / Red (bearish) with background fill
- **EMA 7**: Yellow when ADX >23, White when ADX ≤23
- **EMA 21**: Green (price above) / Red (price below)
- **EMA 50**: Blue reference line
- **VWAP**: Orange line
- **PDH/PDL**: Previous day high/low levels
- **EMA Cross Signals**: Small dots marking 7/21 crossovers
### Smart Money Concepts
- Automatic Previous Day High (PDH) / Previous Day Low (PDL) tracking
- Horizontal lines extending from current price
- Clear labeling for support/resistance levels
## Status Dashboard
Compact 2-column table (top-right) shows:
```
FILTERS | STATUS
1. ADX >23 | 47.6 OK / 18.2 NO
2. DI Spread >9 | Bullish / Bearish
3. SuperTrend | Bullish / Bearish
4. Volume >EMA20 | 1.25x OK / 0.14x NO
─────────────────────────────
SIGNAL | BUY / SELL / WAIT
```
Color-coded backgrounds:
- Green: Condition met
- Red: Condition not met
- Yellow: Waiting for confirmation
## Signal Logic
### Entry Conditions
**LONG**: All active filters must align
- SuperTrend bullish (green)
- ADX >23
- DI+ > DI- (if DI Spread enabled)
- Volume > EMA20 (if Volume enabled)
- Price > EMA21 and EMA7 > EMA21 (if EMAs enabled)
**SHORT**: All active filters must align
- SuperTrend bearish (red)
- ADX >23
- DI- > DI+ (if DI Spread enabled)
- Volume > EMA20 (if Volume enabled)
- Price < EMA21 and EMA7 < EMA21 (if EMAs enabled)
### Exit Conditions
- SuperTrend direction change
- Clear "EXIT" markers on chart
### Position Management
- One position per trend (no pyramiding)
- Prevents multiple entries in same direction
- "WAIT" status when conditions partially met
## Settings & Customization
### Filters (Enable/Disable)
**Core Filters:**
- ✓ SuperTrend (VALIDATED)
- ✓ ADX >23 (VALIDATED)
**Additional Filters:**
- ⚠️ DI Spread >9 (EXPERIMENTAL)
- ⚠️ Volume > EMA20 (EXPERIMENTAL)
- ⚠️ EMAs 7/21/50 (EXPERIMENTAL)
**Visual:**
- Show EMA 7/21 Crosses (dots)
### Parameters
**SuperTrend:**
- ATR Period: 10 (default)
- ATR Multiplier: 3.0 (default)
**ADX/DI:**
- ADX Length: 14 (default)
- ADX Threshold: 23 (default)
- DI Spread Threshold: 9 (default)
**Volume:**
- Volume EMA: 20 (default)
**EMAs:**
- Fast EMA: 7 (default)
- Medium EMA: 21 (default)
- Slow EMA: 50 (default)
## Alerts
Pre-configured alerts for:
- Long Signal (BUY - Entry confirmed)
- Short Signal (SELL - Entry confirmed)
- Exit Long (EXIT LONG - SuperTrend changed)
- Exit Short (EXIT SHORT - SuperTrend changed)
- EMA Cross Up (EMA 7 crossed above EMA 21)
- EMA Cross Down (EMA 7 crossed below EMA 21)
## Best Practices
### Recommended Setup (Validated System)
```
Enable ONLY:
- SuperTrend: ON
- ADX >23: ON
- All other filters: OFF
```
### Testing New Filters
1. Enable experimental filters
2. Backtest thoroughly before live trading
3. Compare performance metrics
4. Validate with demo account first
### Timeframe
- Optimized for: 4H charts
- Tested on: Bitcoin/USDT
- Works on: Any trending instrument
## Risk Management
This indicator provides entry/exit signals but does NOT include:
- Stop loss levels
- Take profit targets
- Position sizing
Always use proper risk management:
- Maximum 1-2% risk per trade
- Use stop losses
- Follow your trading plan
## Performance Notes
**Validated Backtest Results (SuperTrend + ADX only):**
- Win Rate: 52.11%
- Profit Factor: 3.162
- Return: +45.46% (4 years)
- Tested Period: 2020-2024
- Instrument: BTC/USDT 4H
**Important:** Adding additional filters changes the system. Results may vary. Always backtest your specific configuration before live trading.
## Mobile Optimization
- Compact table design
- Clear color coding
- Minimal chart clutter
- Large signal text
- Optimized for small screens
## Use Cases
✅ **Ideal for:**
- Trend-following strategies
- Swing trading (4H timeframe)
- Clear market conditions
- Systematic traders
❌ **NOT ideal for:**
- Scalping (too slow)
- Range-bound markets
- Counter-trend strategies
- Lateral/choppy conditions
## Credits & Methodology
Based on proven technical analysis principles:
- SuperTrend (volatility-based trend following)
- ADX (trend strength measurement)
- Directional Indicators (DI+/DI-)
- Volume analysis
- EMA systems
**Designed for:** Disciplined execution over frequent trading
**Philosophy:** Quality setups > Quantity of trades
## Disclaimer
This indicator is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always:
- Test on demo account first
- Use proper risk management
- Never risk more than you can afford to lose
- Consult a financial advisor
Trading involves substantial risk. This tool does not constitute financial advice.
---
## Version History
**v2.0 (Current)**
- Modular filter system
- 2-column compact status table
- EMA 7 dynamic coloring (yellow when ADX >23)
- EMA 50 + VWAP added
- PDH/PDL levels
- EMA cross markers
- Improved signal logic
- One position per trend
- Multiple alert conditions
---
**For support, updates, or feedback, contact the developer.**
