Annualised Price Volatility %Annualised Price Volatility in percent, also called Instrument Risk, as outlined by Rob Carver in his excellent books, 'Systematic Trading' and 'Leveraged Trading'.
This is written for those who have read one of his books and want to use this tool on TradingView.
Trend strength, oscillators, and volume indicators are all the rage. Finding a great setup is, of course, key. You've decided to go long. Great!
But how much is your capital at risk?
How does that compare with your level of risk tolerance?
When trading, it's key to understand just how risky a certain instrument is. An uptrend is an uptrend, but is it at an annualised volatility of 2% per year or 500% per year? If it's the former, I know I can put a good chunk of capital into trading it. But if its the latter, I don't want to put so much money at risk. Volatility is rarely in a straight line. It's usually up and down.
I won't give the whole game away. To find out more about how to use this concept of risk, I'd highly recommend the books 'Leveraged Trading' and 'Systematic Trading' by Rob Carver.
Do you have any thoughts, ideas, or questions? Let me know in the comments or send me a message! I'd be glad to help you out.
Risk
Mandelbrot's RangeThis uses a Rescaled Range from Benoit Mandelbrot's Misbehavior of Markets to devise a Risk Range on stocks. A trading position can be managed by selling portions at the top of the risk range and selling at the bottom of the risk range.
The Length parameter defines how wide the range is and how frequently the price will reach the range bands.
The Vol Length Parameter defines how far back to weight volatility, and how responsive the bands will be in response to volatility
Volatility Trend IndicatorThe Volatility Trade Indicator signals bullish / bearish trend based on the volatility of the underlying asset.
During bull markets, volatility is typically low and price moves occur slowly and steadily. During bear markets, volatility is typically high and price movement is much more volatile in both directions.
The Volatility Trade Indicator measures the volatility of the underlying asset in relationship to the historic volatility over a specific timespan.
Low volatility regimes are signaled in green with an indicator value of below 0, high volatility regimes are signaled in red with an indicator value above 0.
During low volatility regime you want to look for long entries, during high volatility regimes you want to look for short entries.
Risk ManagementThis indicator helps the trader to calculate the size of the buy or sell in relation to the accepted risk. The calculation includes the risk and the fees paid for the purchase, sale or stop.
The trader needs to enter his capital, the risk accepted in the trade and the fees charged by the broker. Inform the entry price and your stop loss .
You can change to trade on the sale and show your entry and stop loss on the chart.
The indicator will do the calculation and inform the percentage of gain or loss.
Risk/Reward CalculatorJust a simple risk reward calculator to help indicate the R:R levels of your risk on a trade. The drawing tool doesn't have multiple R capabilities.
Chonky Floating R:RVisualize the floating R:R of an active position.
Input the stop loss and target to return live R:R
Equity Risk PremiumInspired by the article "2020's Best Performing Hedge Fund Warns Of 'Incredible Move' Around The Election" from ZeroHedge:
This script explores the relationship and attempts to find dislocation between equity risk (VIX) and high-yield corporate debt risk (VXHYG, The Cboe VXHYG Index is an estimate of the expected 30-day volatility of the return on iShares' High Yield Grade ETF (HYG). VXHYG is derived by applying the VIX algorithm to options on HYG).
The basic logic is (closing price of VIX / closing price of VXHYG) - 1. When equity risk is high and credit risk is low, the value of premium will be high, and vice-versa.
“'Equity volatility is almost inescapably high. Is that a good form of insurance? The payoff profiles are nothing like they were back in January. Whereas in credit, we’re almost back to where we were in January.
I find today the risk-reward profile of credit to be basically among the worst, relative to other things, I’ve seen in my career,' Weinstein said. 'A VIX at 20 used to be quite a feat. Here we are at 30, and the credit market hasn’t blinked.'
As a result of the gaping divergence between the VIX and credit spreads - the two had moved in tandem for years, but in August the two series blew out as the VIX started rising as spreads kept falling - Weinstein has pounced on the trade, betting on vol compression."
When equity risk premium is high, the market may be forming a local top.
When equity risk premium is low, the market may be forming a local bottom.
Make sure to select your current timeframe on the dropdown menu.
Entry Size 1barCalculates how many lots (100) you should buy/sell for any given bar with a fixed risk in USD and shows if Long (L), Short (S) or wait (w) with a label.
Requires max loss per week, trading days per day and lossing trading per day.
[blackcat] L1 Trading Risk Assessment Indicator Level: 1
Background
Risk assessment is a general term used in many industries to determine the likelihood of losing an asset, loan, or investment. Risk assessment is important in determining how profitable a particular investment is and which techniques are best for risk mitigation. It shows the upward reward versus the risk profile. Risk assessment is important in determining the rate of return an investor would need to earn in order to consider an investment as worth the potential risk.
Function
L1 Trading Risk Assessment Indicator provides a trading risk evaluation mechanism that follows the megatrend. By defining transaction risk as 4 levels: highly risky, risky, safe, and highly safe, the current bar’s evaluation value can be compared with historical bar data to understand the current level of trading risk and the level of trading risk Trend.
Key Signal
h1~h5 --> trading risk level threshold, which can be adjusted according different markets.
currentsafetylevel --> it indicates current bar risk assessment result
Pros and Cons
Pros:
1. according risk level, proper position size can be adjusted
2. know global trend and select propoer time to exit
Cons:
1. no exact long and short entry are disclosed
2. different markets require different thresholds
Remarks
An improved version of KDJ with less satration observed.
Readme
In real life, I am a prolific inventor. I have successfully applied for more than 60 international and regional patents in the past 12 years. But in the past two years or so, I have tried to transfer my creativity to the development of trading strategies. Tradingview is the ideal platform for me. I am selecting and contributing some of the hundreds of scripts to publish in Tradingview community. Welcome everyone to interact with me to discuss these interesting pine scripts.
The scripts posted are categorized into 5 levels according to my efforts or manhours put into these works.
Level 1 : interesting script snippets or distinctive improvement from classic indicators or strategy. Level 1 scripts can usually appear in more complex indicators as a function module or element.
Level 2 : composite indicator/strategy. By selecting or combining several independent or dependent functions or sub indicators in proper way, the composite script exhibits a resonance phenomenon which can filter out noise or fake trading signal to enhance trading confidence level.
Level 3 : comprehensive indicator/strategy. They are simple trading systems based on my strategies. They are commonly containing several or all of entry signal, close signal, stop loss, take profit, re-entry, risk management, and position sizing techniques. Even some interesting fundamental and mass psychological aspects are incorporated.
Level 4 : script snippets or functions that do not disclose source code. Interesting element that can reveal market laws and work as raw material for indicators and strategies. If you find Level 1~2 scripts are helpful, Level 4 is a private version that took me far more efforts to develop.
Level 5 : indicator/strategy that do not disclose source code. private version of Level 3 script with my accumulated script processing skills or a large number of custom functions. I had a private function library built in past two years. Level 5 scripts use many of them to achieve private trading strategy.
Position Size CalculatorThis is a script to make calculating position size easier. It calculates position size as a percentage of account balance and Risk/Reward based on input values of entry, exit, stoploss and shows the R/R box similar to tradingview's R/R tool. There is an option to toggle showing label and choosing of label text color.
Have to enter the following inputs in order for it to work properly
1. Account Balance : Account balance in either whatever is base currency of account
2. Risk % : Percentage of account balance to lose if stop is hit.
3. Entry
4. Stoploss
5. Target Price
Notes:
- Target Price is required for calculating R/R but is not necessary to calculate position size.
- Formula to calculate position size is : Balance * Risk % / SL %
- Formula to calculate R/R is : TP % / SL %
- SL % = ( Entry - SL ) / Entry * 100
- TP % = (TP - Entry ) / Entry * 100
Thanks to u/Chonky_ for help with feedback.
Risk RangeThis indicator creates risk ranges using implied volatility (VIX) or historical volatility, skewness ( Cboe SKEW or estimate ) and kurtosis.
Daily Risk RangesThis indictor creates daily Risk Ranges using historical volatility, volatility skew and vol-of-vol.
[STRATEGY] Buy/Sell/TP/SL/TSL Alerts ModuleA strategy version of the Buy/Sell/TP/SL/TSL Alerts Module .
It works the same way:
1) You choose a specific indicator and apply it to your chart
2) You create a special signal form of that indicator
3) You connect that form to the module
4) Bob's your uncle
If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask and contact me either via private messages on TradingView or via Telegram.
Thanks!
Simple and efficient swing RSI systemHello there,
I am glad to bring you another simple and efficient algorithm.
Its made purely from RSI which can be used directly or inversed. Its suited for swing trading 15 min chart or more minimum.
Can be adapted to all types of financial markets.
Rules for entry are easy : First we have the stop loss and take profits levels. Based on SL , we have the risk % of our equity, where the minimum lot we can trade its setted on 0.1 lots , can be modified tho.
For entries, we have the overbought and oversold levels.
Whenever we cross one of them we enter the trade . We close the trade whenever we reach sl/tp or inverse crosses.
Although its has a low win rate, its a very good system to catch big trends, so there you can recover all the small losses that you had in a untrend market .
Aswell it requires a lot of patience, since a position can be kept for weeks, even months.
Hope you enjoyed it .
Risk Metrics: Crypto VersionRisk Metrics for Crypto.
Market can be set to BTCUSD, BTCEUR, BTCCHF, BTCGBP, BTC1!, BTC2!, SPX, and DTB3
Beta
Correlation
Standard Deviation
Variance
R-squared
Buy/Sell/TP/SL/TSL Alerts ModuleThis tool is not a self-sufficient indicator, just an attachable module that allows you to enhance a specific indicator with risk management components without having a headache.
What you need to do, and actually this is the most important step, is to rewrite your indicator to a buy-sell signal form which will output only -1, 0, 1 values and then connect it to the module.
After that the module gives you a lot of possibilities to customize Take Profit, Stop Loss and Trailing Stop Loss levels through the settings window and to set all the alerts you need up.
Simple Buy/Sell setup for the RSI:
Now I am adding Stop Loss:
and Take Profit:
and finally Trailing Stop Loss:
Okay, I have shown how it works with RSI signals. Here is example for the MACD:
and example for the WaveTrend Oscillator:
If you have any questions don't hesitate to ask and contact me either via private messages on TradingView or via Telegram
Risk Metrics: beta 'β', correl 'ρxy', stdev 'σ', variance 'σ²'Portfolio Risk Metrics (Part I):
beta 'β'
The beta coefficient can be interpreted as follows:
β =1 exactly as volatile as the market
β >1 more volatile than the market
β <1>0 less volatile than the market
β =0 uncorrelated to the market
β <0 negatively correlated to the market
excerpt from the Corporate Finance Institute
correlation coefficient 'ρxy'
The correlation coefficient is a value that indicates the strength of the relationship between variables.
The coefficient can take any values from -1 to 1. The interpretations of the values are:
-1: Perfect negative correlation. The variables tend to move in opposite directions
(i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable decreases).
0: No correlation. The variables do not have a relationship with each other.
1: Perfect positive correlation. The variables tend to move in the same direction
(i.e., when one variable increases, the other variable also increases).
excerpt from the Corporate Finance Institute
standard deviation 'σ'
68% of returns will fall within 1 standard deviation of the arithmetic mean
95% of returns will fall within 2 standard deviations of the arithmetic mean
99% of returns will fall within 3 standard deviations of the arithmetic mean
excerpt from Corporate Finance Institute
variance 'σ²'
In investing, variance is used to compare the relative performance of each asset in a portfolio.
Because the results can be difficult to analyze, standard deviation is often used instead of variance.
In either case, the goal for the investor is to improve asset allocation.
excerpt from Investopedia
Portfolio Metrics = α(Jensen's), β, CAPM(Ra), Sharpe, TreynorPortfolio Metrics...
Standard Deviation
Jensen's Alpha
Beta
Expected Return (CAPM, Ra)
Sharpe Ratio
Treynor Ratio
Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index by DGTPsychology of a Market Cycle - Where are we in the cycle?
Before proceeding with the question "where", let's first have a quick look at "What is market psychology?"
Market psychology is the idea that the movements of a market reflect the emotional state of its participants. It is one of the main topics of behavioral economics - an interdisciplinary field that investigates the various factors that precede economic decisions. Many believe that emotions are the main driving force behind the shifts of financial markets and that the overall fluctuating investor sentiment is what creates the so-called psychological market cycles - which is also dynamic.
Stages of Investor Emotions:
* Optimism – A positive outlook encourages us about the future, leading us to buy stocks.
* Excitement – Having seen some of our initial ideas work, we begin considering what our market success could allow us to accomplish.
* Thrill – At this point we investors cannot believe our success and begin to comment on how smart we are.
* Euphoria – This marks the point of maximum financial risk. Having seen every decision result in quick, easy profits, we begin to ignore risk and expect every trade to become profitable.
* Anxiety – For the first time the market moves against us. Having never stared at unrealized losses, we tell ourselves we are long-term investors and that all our ideas will eventually work.
* Denial – When markets have not rebounded, yet we do not know how to respond, we begin denying either that we made poor choices or that things will not improve shortly.
* Fear – The market realities become confusing. We believe the stocks we own will never move in our favor.
* Desperation – Not knowing how to act, we grasp at any idea that will allow us to get back to breakeven.
* Panic – Having exhausted all ideas, we are at a loss for what to do next.
* Capitulation – Deciding our portfolio will never increase again, we sell all our stocks to avoid any future losses.
* Despondency – After exiting the markets we do not want to buy stocks ever again. This often marks the moment of greatest financial opportunity.
* Depression – Not knowing how we could be so foolish, we are left trying to understand our actions.
* Hope – Eventually we return to the realization that markets move in cycles, and we begin looking for our next opportunity.
* Relief – Having bought a stock that turned profitable, we renew our faith that there is a future in investing.
It's hard to predict with certainty where we exactly are in the market cycle, we can only make an educated guess as to the rough stage based on data available. And here comes the study "Trading Psychology - Fear & Greed Index"
Factors taken into account in this study include:
1-Price Momentum : Price Divergence/Convergence versus its Slow Moving Average
2-Strenght : Rate of Return (RoR) also called Return on Investment (ROI) is a performance measure used to evaluate the efficiency of an investment, net gain or loss of an investment over a specified time period, the rate of change in price movement over a period of time to help investors determine the strength
3-Money Flow : Chaikin Money Flow (CMF) is a technical analysis indicator used to measure Money Flow Volume over a set period of time. CMF can be used as a way to further quantify changes in buying and selling pressure and can help to anticipate future changes and therefore trading opportunities. CMF calculations is based on Accumulation/Distribution
4-Market Volatility : CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), the Volatility Index, or VIX, is a real-time market index that represents the market's expectation of 30-day forward-looking volatility. Derived from the price inputs of the S&P 500 index options, it provides a measure of market risk and investors' sentiments. It is also known by other names like "Fear Gauge" or "Fear Index." Investors, research analysts and portfolio managers look to VIX values as a way to measure market risk, fear and stress before they take investment decisions
5-Safe Haven Demand : in this study GOLD demand is assumed
What to look for :
*Fear and Greed Index as explained above,
*Divergencies
Tool tip of the label displayed provides details of references
Conclusion:
As investors, we always get caught up in the day to day price movements, and lose sight of the bigger picture. The biggest crashes happen not when investors are cautious and fearful, it's when they're euphoric and expecting financial instruments to continue going higher. So as we continue investing, don’t forget to stop and ask yourself, where in the chart do you think we are right now? The Market Psychology Cycle shines light on how emotions evolve, fear and greed index can come in handy, provided that it is not the only tool used to make investment decisions. It is easy to look back at market cycles and recognize how the overall psychology changed. Analyzing previous data makes it obvious what actions and decisions would have been the most profitable. However, it is much harder to understand how the market is changing as it goes - and even harder to predict what comes next. Many investors use technical analysis (TA) to attempt to anticipate where the market is likely to go. Investors are advised to keep tabs on fear for potential buying the dips opportunities and view periods of greed as a potential indicator that financial instruments might be overvalued.
Warren Buffett's quote, buy when others are fearful, and sell when others are greedy
Trading success is all about following your trading strategy and the indicators should fit within your trading strategy, and not to be traded upon solely
Disclaimer : The script is for informational and educational purposes only. Use of the script does not constitute professional and/or financial advice. You alone have the sole responsibility of evaluating the script output and risks associated with the use of the script. In exchange for using the script, you agree not to hold dgtrd TradingView user liable for any possible claim for damages arising from any decision you make based on use of the script
RiskOnRiskOff #SPX500 v3Riskon mode refers to a generalized perception of low risk in financial markets. Riskoff mode is the exact opposite. In this case, the perception of risk is high and drives investors away. In a riskon scenario, the market trend will continue to rise and, conversely, in riskoff mode, significant falls in the market can be expected. This indicator assesses the RiskOnRiskOff sentiment for # SPX500.
Trend Risk Indicator (TRI)The Trend Risk Indicator is a simple bands indicator made of 2 custom averages of candlesticks ranges calculated within the variable “ BandBars ” period.
Upper and lower channel bands width can be adjusted with the “ Deviation ” variable, which act as a simple factor to enlarge the spread between them.
When Close crosses over the upper band, it is a bearish signal and candlesticks are painted in Red.
When Close crosses under the lower band, it’s a bullish signal and candlesticks are painted in Green.
One of the most interesting indicators for 1 minute scalping. Recommended to use on Renko bars.
*drag to chart and pin to scale, also remove borders from candlesticks.
Systematic Momentum strategy v 1.0Systematic Momentum strategy v 1.0
This is a long-only strategy optimized taking into consideration the underlying's momentum and volatily.
Long story short it opens positions when the momentum is highest and the risk is lowest and closes the same position when the risk-to-reward is no longer optimal.
How to use:
-> To be used on an Index or a tracker ETF
-> Position sizing should be set up to 100% of the portfolio
Drawdown SimulatorDrawdown Simulator.
Will simulate a series of percent based stop losses being triggered in a row if you risked x% of capital per trade.
Also simulates what the capital outcome would be if you were in a leveraged position.
Default settings simulate the use of $3000 starting capital balance , 1% Risk per trade and 5 Losing trades in a row with no leverage (1x).
This will not account of commission fees.
