Three Step Future-Trend [BigBeluga]Three Step Future-Trend by BigBeluga is a forward-looking trend analysis tool designed to project potential future price direction based on historical periods. This indicator aggregates data from three consecutive periods, using price averages and delta volume analysis to forecast trend movement and visualize it on the chart with a projected trend line and volume metrics.
🔵 Key Features:
Three Period Analysis: Calculates price averages and delta volumes from three specified periods, creating a consolidated view of historical price movement.
Future Trend Line Projection: Plots a forward trend line based on the calculated averag of three periods, helping traders visualize potential future price movement.
Avg Delta Volume and Future Price Label: Shows a delta average Volume a long with a Future Price label at the end of the projected trend line, indicating the possible future delta volume and future Price.
Volume Data Table: Displays a detailed table showing delta and total volume for each of the three periods, allowing quick volume comparison to support the projected trend.
This indicator provides a dynamic way to anticipate market direction by blending price and volume data, giving traders insights into both volume and trend strength in upcoming periods.
Forecast
High/Low Location Frequency [LuxAlgo]The High/Low Location Frequency tool provides users with probabilities of tops and bottoms at user-defined periods, along with advanced filters that offer deep and objective market information about the likelihood of a top or bottom in the market.
🔶 USAGE
There are four different time periods that traders can select for analysis of probabilities:
HOUR OF DAY: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each hour of the day
DAY OF WEEK: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the week
DAY OF MONTH: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each day of the month
MONTH OF YEAR: Probability of occurrence of top and bottom prices for each month
The data is displayed as a dashboard, which users can position according to their preferences. The dashboard includes useful information in the header, such as the number of periods and the date from which the data is gathered. Additionally, users can enable active filters to customize their view. The probabilities are displayed in one, two, or three columns, depending on the number of elements.
🔹 Advanced Filters
Advanced Filters allow traders to exclude specific data from the results. They can choose to use none or all filters simultaneously, inputting a list of numbers separated by spaces or commas. However, it is not possible to use both separators on the same filter.
The tool is equipped with five advanced filters:
HOURS OF DAY: The permitted range is from 0 to 23.
DAYS OF WEEK: The permitted range is from 1 to 7.
DAYS OF MONTH: The permitted range is from 1 to 31.
MONTHS: The permitted range is from 1 to 12.
YEARS: The permitted range is from 1000 to 2999.
It should be noted that the DAYS OF WEEK advanced filter has been designed for use with tickers that trade every day, such as those trading in the crypto market. In such cases, the numbers displayed will range from 1 (Sunday) to 7 (Saturday). Conversely, for tickers that do not trade over the weekend, the numbers will range from 1 (Monday) to 5 (Friday).
To illustrate the application of this filter, we will exclude results for Mondays and Tuesdays, the first five days of each month, January and February, and the years 2020, 2021, and 2022. Let us review the results:
DAYS OF WEEK: `2,3` or `2 3` (for crypto) or `1,2` or `1 2` (for the rest)
DAYS OF MONTH: `1,2,3,4,5` or `1 2 3 4 5`
MONTHS: `1,2` or `1 2`
YEARS: `2020,2021,2022` or `2020 2021 2022`
🔹 High Probability Lines
The tool enables traders to identify the next period with the highest probability of a top (red) and/or bottom (green) on the chart, marked with two horizontal lines indicating the location of these periods.
🔹 Top/Bottom Labels and Periods Highlight
The tool is capable of indicating on the chart the upper and lower limits of each selected period, as well as the commencement of each new period, thus providing traders with a convenient reference point.
🔶 SETTINGS
Period: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from, max value as default.
Execution Window: Select how many bars (hours, days, or months) will be used to gather data from
🔹 Advanced Filters
Hours of day: Filter which hours of the day are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of hours from 0 to 23 separated by commas or spaces, users can not mix commas or spaces as a separator, must choose one
Days of week: Filter which days of the week are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 5 for tickers not trading weekends, or from 1 to 7 for tickers trading all week, users can choose between commas or spaces as a separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Days of month: Filter which days of the month are excluded from the data, it accepts a list of days from 1 to 31, users can choose between commas or spaces as separator, but can not mix them on the same filter.
Months: Filter months to exclude from data. Accepts months from 1 to 12. Choose one separator: comma or space.
Years: Filter years to exclude from data. Accepts years from 1000 to 2999. Choose one separator: comma or space.
🔹 Dashboard
Dashboard Location: Select both the vertical and horizontal parameters for the desired location of the dashboard.
Dashboard Size: Select size for dashboard.
🔹 Style
High Probability Top Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Top` vertical line and choose color
High Probability Bottom Line: Enable/disable `High Probability Bottom` vertical line and choose color
Top Label: Enable/disable period top labels, choose color and size.
Bottom Label: Enable/disable period bottom labels, choose color and size.
Highlight Period Changes: Enable/disable vertical highlight at start of period
Future Trend Channel [ChartPrime]The Future Trend Channel indicator is a dynamic tool for identifying trends and projecting future prices based on channel formations. The indicator uses SMA (Simple Moving Average) and volatility calculations to plot channels that visually represent trends. It also detects moments of lower momentum, indicated by neutral color changes in the channels, and projects future price levels for up to 50 bars ahead.
⯁ KEY FEATURES AND HOW TO USE
⯌ Dynamic Trend Channels :
The indicator draws channels when a trend is identified. It uses a combination of SMA and volatility to determine the direction and strength of the trend. Each channel is visualized with a specific color, where green indicates an uptrend and orange represents a downtrend.
Example of channels during uptrend and downtrend:
⯌ Momentum-Based Color Shifts :
The indicator adapts its channel colors based on momentum changes. When the starting point (Y1) of a channel is higher than its ending point (Y2) during an uptrend, the channel turns neutral, indicating lower momentum and a possible ranging market. The same applies in a downtrend, where the channel turns neutral if Y1 is lower than Y2.
Example of neutral momentum channels:
⯌ Future Price Projection :
At the end of each channel, the indicator generates a projected future price based on the midpoint of the channel. By default, this projection is made 50 bars into the future, but users can adjust the number of bars to their preference.
Example of future price projection:
⯌ Diamond Signals for Valid Trends :
Lime-colored diamonds appear when an uptrend channel is confirmed, while orange diamonds indicate valid downtrend channels. These signals confirm the presence of a strong trend and help identify valid entry and exit points. Neutral channels, which indicate lower momentum, do not show diamond signals.
Example of trend confirmation signals:
⯌ Customizable Settings :
Users can adjust the channel length (how far back the trend is analyzed) and the width (which determines the channel boundaries based on volatility). The future price projection can also be customized to forecast further or fewer bars into the future.
⯁ USER INPUTS
Trend Length : Sets the number of bars used to calculate the trend channels.
Channel Width : Adjusts the width of the channels, based on volatility (ATR multiplier).
Up and Down Colors : Allows customization of the colors used for uptrend and downtrend channels.
Future Bars : Sets the number of bars used for future price projection.
⯁ CONCLUSION
The Future Trend Channel indicator is a versatile tool for identifying and trading trends. With its ability to detect momentum shifts and project future prices, it provides traders with key insights for making more informed decisions. The use of diamond signals for trend validation adds an extra layer of confirmation, helping traders act with greater confidence during volatile or trending markets.
Dual price forecast with Projection Zone [FXSMARTLAB]The Dual Price Forecast with Projection Zone indicator is built to simulate potential future price paths based on historical price movements over two defined lookback periods. By running multiple trials (or simulations) on these historical price movements, the indicator achieves a more robust forecast, incorporating the inherent variability of price behavior.
Key Components and Calculation Details
1. Lookback Periods and Historical Price Movements
Lookback Period 1 and Lookback Period 2 specify the range of past data used to generate each projection. For each period, the indicator calculates the price variations (differences between the closing and opening prices) and stores these in arrays.
These historical price variations capture the volatility and price patterns within each period, serving as templates for future price behavior.
2. Trials: Purpose and Function
The trials are a critical element in the projection calculation. Each trial represents a single simulation of possible future price movements, derived from a random reordering of the historical price variations in each lookback period.
By running multiple trials , the indicator explores various sequences of historical movements, simulating different possible future paths. Each trial adds to the projection’s robustness by capturing a unique potential price path based on past behavior.
Running these multiple trials allows the indicator to account for randomness in price behavior, making the projections more comprehensive by covering a range of scenarios rather than relying on a single deterministic forecast.
3. Reverse Option
The reverse option allows the indicator to invert the direction of price movements within each lookback period. When enabled, historical uptrends are treated as downtrends, and vice versa.
This feature is particularly valuable in scenarios where traders expect a potential reversal in market direction. By enabling the reverse option, the indicator can simulate what might happen if past trends inverted, providing an alternative forecast path that considers possible market reversals.
This allows traders to assess both continuation and reversal scenarios, giving them a more balanced view of potential future price paths and helping them prepare for either market direction.
4. Generating the Average Projection Path
Once the trials are complete, the indicator calculates an average projected price path for each lookback period by averaging the results of all trials. This average represents the most likely price trend based on historical data and provides a smoothed projection that mitigates extreme outliers.
By averaging across all trial paths, the indicator generates a more reliable and balanced forecast line, smoothing out the fluctuations that might appear if only one trial or a small number of trials were used.
5. Projection Zone Visualization
The indicator plots the two average projection paths (one for each lookback period) as Projection 1 and Projection 2, each in a user-defined color.
The Projection Zone is the area between these two lines, filled with a semi-transparent color. This zone visually represents the potential range of future price movement, highlighting where prices are likely to oscillate if historical trends persist.
The Projection Zone effectively functions as a potential support and resistance boundary, providing traders with a visual reference for possible price fluctuations within a specific range.
6. Display of Lookback Zones
To give context to the projections, the indicator can also display colored lookback zones on the chart. These zones correspond to Lookback Period 1 and Lookback Period 2 and are color-coded to match their respective projection lines.
These zones allow traders to see the sections of historical data used in the calculation, helping them understand which past price behaviors influenced the current projections.
Benefits of the Indicator
The "Dual Price Forecast with Projection Zone" indicator provides a multi-scenario forecast based on past price dynamics. Its use of trials ensures that projections are not based on a single deterministic path but on a range of possible scenarios that better reflect the inherent randomness in financial markets.
By generating a probabilistic forecast within a defined zone, the indicator helps traders to:
Anticipate potential price ranges and areas of support/resistance based on historical trends.
Understand the influence of different timeframes (short-term and long-term lookbacks) on future price behavior.
Make informed decisions by visualizing the likely variability of future prices within a controlled projection zone.
Prepare for both continuation and reversal scenarios, thanks to the reverse option. This feature is especially useful in markets where trends may change direction, as it allows traders to explore what might happen
Similar Price ActionDescription:
The indicator tries to find an area of N candles in history that has the most similar price action to the latest N candles. The maximum search distance is limited to 5000 candles. It works by calculating a coefficient for each candle and comparing it with the coefficient of the latest candle, thus searching for two closest values. The indicator highlights the latest N candles, as well as the most similar area found in the past, and also tries to predict future price based on the latest price and price directly after the most similar area that was found in the past.
Inputs:
- Length -> the area we are searching for is comprised of this many candles
- Lookback -> maximum distance in which a similar area can be found
- Function -> the function used to compare latest and past prices
Notes:
- The indicator is intended to work on smaller timeframes where the overall price difference is not very high, but can be used on any
[DarkTrader] Intersection Level & PredictionLinear Regression Function Reference by @RicardoSantos :
The Intersection Level Calculation process identifies critical price levels where significant market reactions are expected. It starts by analyzing historical price action and technical indicators to pinpoint key support and resistance levels.
Price Forecast Min represents the predicted lowest price level that the asset might reach, while Price Forecast Max indicates the anticipated highest price level. These projections are calculated using statistical methods and historical price patterns, allowing traders to anticipate potential support and resistance zones. By providing these forecasts, traders can better manage their risk and set more informed entry and exit points based on projected price movements.
Example Of Prediction (Before & After)
Predicting Future Price Movements :
Once the intersection levels are identified, the indicator uses various predictive models to forecast what price might do next when it approaches these levels. Here’s a breakdown of how it achieves this :
Price Reaction Analysis: The indicator assesses how price has historically reacted to similar intersection levels. For instance, if price has reversed from a certain support level multiple times, the indicator can predict a potential reversal or bounce when price approaches that level again.
Trend Continuation or Reversal: It examines the strength of the current trend by analyzing momentum indicators, volume, and the angle or direction of trendlines. Based on this, it can predict whether price is likely to break through an intersection level, signaling trend continuation, or bounce off it, indicating a potential reversal.
Confluence of Factors: The prediction mechanism becomes more accurate when multiple factors converge at the same intersection level. For example, if a trendline, moving average, and support zone all intersect at the same price point, the indicator predicts a stronger likelihood of significant price movement.
Market Volatility and Momentum: The indicator also considers current market volatility and momentum in its prediction. For example, if price approaches an intersection level with high momentum, it might predict a breakout, whereas low momentum might suggest consolidation or a weaker price reaction.
In this indicator, I utilize Linear Regression to forecast price movements by analyzing historical data trends. Linear Regression involves fitting a straight line to past price data, enabling me to model and project future price levels based on identified trends. This method calculates a trend line that best represents the historical price behavior, providing a foundation for predicting future price points. By extending this trend line, I can estimate where prices might move, incorporating a range to account for potential deviations. This approach helps in identifying both minimum and maximum forecasted prices, offering valuable insights into potential market directions.
Trend Forecasting - The Quant Science🌏 Trend Forecasting | ENG 🌏
This plug-in acts as a statistical filter, adding new information to your chart that will allow you to quickly verify the direction of a trend and the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future, helping you to uncover probable market inefficiencies.
🧠 Model calculation
The model calculates the arithmetic mean in relation to positive and negative events within the available sample for the selected time series. Where a positive event is defined as a closing price greater than the average, and a negative event as a closing price less than the average. Once all events have been calculated, the probabilities are extrapolated by relating each event.
Example
Positive event A: 70
Negative event B: 30
Total events: 100
Probabilities A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Probabilities B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Event A has a 70% probability of occurring compared to Event B which has a 30% probability.
🔍 Information Filter
The data on the graph show the future probabilities of prices being above average (default in green) and the probabilities of prices being below average (default in red).
The information that can be quickly retrieved from this indicator is:
1. Trend: Above-average prices together with a constant of data in green greater than 50% + 1 indicate that the observed historical series shows a bullish trend. The probability is correlated proportionally to the value of the data; the higher and increasing the expected value, the greater the observed bullish trend. On the other hand, a below-average price together with a red-coloured data constant show quantitative data regarding the presence of a bearish trend.
2. Future Probability: By analysing the data, it is possible to find the probability with which the price will be above or below the average in the future. In green are classified the probabilities that the price will be higher than the average, in red are classified the probabilities that the price will be lower than the average.
🔫 Operational Filter .
The indicator can be used operationally in the search for investment or trading opportunities given its ability to identify an inefficiency within the observed data sample.
⬆ Bullish forecast
For bullish trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bullish trend, with high probability of a bullish trend in the future that is currently below the average.
⬇ Bearish forecast
For short trades, the inefficiency will appear as a historical series with a bearish trend, with a high probability of a bearish trend in the future that is currently above the average.
📚 Settings
Input: via the Input user interface, it is possible to adjust the periods (1 to 500) with which the average is to be calculated. By default the periods are set to 200, which means that the average is calculated by taking the last 200 periods.
Style: via the Style user interface it is possible to adjust the colour and switch a specific output on or off.
🇮🇹Previsione Della Tendenza Futura | ITA 🇮🇹
Questo plug-in funge da filtro statistico, aggiungendo nuove informazioni al tuo grafico che ti permetteranno di verificare rapidamente tendenza di un trend, probabilità con la quale il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro aiutandoti a scovare probabili inefficienze di mercato.
🧠 Calcolo del modello
Il modello calcola la media aritmetica in relazione con gli eventi positivi e negativi all'intero del campione disponibile per la serie storica selezionata. Dove per evento positivo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura maggiore della media, mentre per evento negativo si intende un prezzo alla chiusura minore della media. Calcolata la totalità degli eventi le probabilità vengono estrapolate rapportando ciascun evento.
Esempio
Evento positivo A: 70
Evento negativo B: 30
Totale eventi : 100
Formula A: (100 / 70) x 100 = 70%
Formula B: (100 / 30) x 100 = 30%
Evento A ha una probabilità del 70% di realizzarsi rispetto all' Evento B che ha una probabilità pari al 30%.
🔍 Filtro informativo
I dati sul grafico mostrano le probabilità future che i prezzi siano sopra la media (di default in verde) e le probabilità che i prezzi siano sotto la media (di default in rosso).
Le informazioni che si possono rapidamente reperire da questo indicatore sono:
1. Trend: I prezzi sopra la media insieme ad una costante di dati in verde maggiori al 50% + 1 indicano che la serie storica osservata presenta un trend rialzista. La probabilità è correlata proporzionalmente al valore del dato; tanto più sarà alto e crescente il valore atteso e maggiore sarà la tendenza rialzista osservata. Viceversa, un prezzo sotto la media insieme ad una costante di dati classificati in colore rosso mostrano dati quantitativi riguardo la presenza di una tendenza ribassista.
2. Probabilità future: analizzando i dati è possibile reperire la probabilità con cui il prezzo si troverà sopra o sotto la media in futuro. In verde vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà maggiore alla media, in rosso vengono classificate le probabilità che il prezzo sarà minore della media.
🔫 Filtro operativo
L' indicatore può essere utilizzato a livello operativo nella ricerca di opportunità di investimento o di trading vista la capacità di identificare un inefficienza all'interno del campione di dati osservato.
⬆ Previsione rialzista
Per operatività di tipo rialzista l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza rialzista, con alte probabilità di tendenza rialzista in futuro che attualmente si trova al di sotto della media.
⬇ Previsione ribassista
Per operatività di tipo short l'inefficienza apparirà come una serie storica a tendenza ribassista, con alte probabilità di tendenza ribassista in futuro che si trova attualmente sopra la media.
📚 Impostazioni
Input: tramite l'interfaccia utente Input è possibile regolare i periodi (da 1 a 500) con cui calcolare la media. Di default i periodi sono impostati sul valore di 200, questo significa che la media viene calcolata prendendo gli ultimi 200 periodi.
Style: tramite l'interfaccia utente Style è possibile regolare il colore e attivare o disattivare un specifico output.
Moving Average Cross Probability [AlgoAlpha]Moving Average Cross Probability 📈✨
The Moving Average Cross Probability by AlgoAlpha calculates the probability of a cross-over or cross-under between the fast and slow values of a user defined Moving Average type before it happens, allowing users to benefit by front running the market.
✨ Key Features:
📊 Probability Histogram: Displays the Probability of MA cross in the form of a histogram.
🔄 Data Table: Displays forecast information for quick analysis.
🎨 Customizable MAs: Choose from various moving averages and customize their length.
🚀 How to Use:
🛠 Add Indicator: Add the indicator to favorites, and customize the settings to suite your trading style.
📊 Analyze Market: Watch the indicator to look for trend shifts early or for trend continuations.
🔔 Set Alerts: Get notified of bullish/bearish points.
✨ How It Works:
The Moving Average Cross Probability Indicator by AlgoAlpha determines the probability by looking at a probable range of values that the price can take in the next bar and finds out what percentage of those possibilities result in the user defined moving average crossing each other. This is done by first using the HMA to predict what the next price value will be, a standard deviation based range is then calculated. The range is divided by the user defined resolution and is split into multiple levels, each of these levels represent a possible value for price in the next bar. These possible predicted values are used to calculate the possible MA values for both the fast and slow MAs that may occur in the next bar and are then compared to see how many of those possible MA results end up crossing each other.
Stay ahead of the market with the Moving Average Cross Probability Indicator AlgoAlpha! 📈💡
Median Analyst ConsensusThe Median Analyst Consensus Indicator provides an unbiased, easy-to-interpret view of market sentiment by leveraging TradingView's comprehensive financial data library. This tool displays the median 12-month price target and the percentage difference from the current price directly on your charts.
Key Features
1. Accurate Market Sentiment: By consolidating analyst ratings and price targets from multiple reputable sources like Bloomberg, Refinitiv (formerly Thomson Reuters), S&P Capital IQ, and Morningstar, this indicator displays the median analyst consensus. Using the median ensures outlier ratings don't skew the overall sentiment, providing a more robust representation.
2. Simplicity at a Glance: View the median 12-month price target and percentage difference from the current price directly on your chart. No need to juggle multiple reports - key insights are surfaced within your normal trading workflow.
3. Data-Driven Transparency: If no analyst data is available for a particular asset, the indicator will not display, ensuring you only see reliable information. The number of contributing analysts is also shown for context.
Why the Median?
The median is favored over the mean to minimize the impact of outlier ratings that could distort the consensus view. By taking the middle value across all analyst projections, the median provides a more stable, outlier-resistant measure of market sentiment.
Powered by TradingView Data
This indicator taps into TradingView's financial data library, which aggregates analyst ratings, estimates, and recommendations from leading institutional data providers. TradingView sources this data from firms like FactSet, Bloomberg, Refinitiv, S&P Capital IQ, and Morningstar, ensuring a comprehensive and trusted view of analyst sentiment.
The library provides variables like:
syminfo.recommendations_buy
syminfo.recommendations_sell
syminfo.target_price_median
syminfo.recommendations_buy_strong
syminfo.recommendations_sell_strong
The indicator calculates and displays the median of these analyst inputs.
Usage
The indicator displays:
The median 12-month price target across analysts
The percentage difference between the price target and current price
The number of contributing analyst estimates
If no analyst data is available, the indicator does not display, ensuring full transparency.
The Median Analyst Consensus Indicator provides an unbiased, easy-to-interpret view of market sentiment by leveraging TradingView's comprehensive financial data library. This tool offers a new perspective on potential trade opportunities directly on your charts.
Disclaimer
While the data is sourced from reputable providers, analyst forecasts should not be construed as investment recommendations. This indicator aims to synthesize market opinions, but investment decisions are solely your responsibility. As with any analytical tool, you should conduct your own research and risk assessments before executing any trades.
Nasan Moving Average with ForecastThe "Nasan Moving Average with Forecast" indicator is a technical analysis forecasting tool that combines the principles of historical data analysis and random walk theory. It calculates a customized moving average (Nasan Moving Average) by integrating price data and statistical measures and projects future price points by generating forecast values within calculated volatility bounds, creating a dynamic and insightful visualization of potential market movements. This indicator to blend past market behavior with probabilistic future trends to enhance forecasting.
Input Parameters:
len: Differencing length (default 21, Use a minimum of 5 and for lower time frames less than 15 min use values between 300 -3000)
len1: Correction Factor Length 1 (default 21, this determines the length of the MA you want , eg. 10 MA, 50 MA, 100 MA, )
len2: Correction Factor Length 2 (default 9, this works best if it is ~ </=1/2 of len1 )
len3: Smoothing Length (default 5, I would not change this and only use if I want to introduce lag where you want to use it for cross over strategies).
forecast_points: Number of points to forecast (default 30).
m: Multiplier for standard deviation (default 2.5).
bl: Block length for calculating max/min values (default 100).
use_calculated_max_min: Boolean to decide whether to use calculated max/min values.
Nasan Moving Average Calculation:
Calculates the simple moving average (mean) and standard deviation (sd) of the typical price (hlc3).
Computes intermediate variables (a, b, c, etc.) based on log transformation and cumulative sum.
Applies weighted moving averages (wma) to these intermediate variables to smooth them and derive the final value c6.
Plots c6 as the Nasan Moving Average if the bar is confirmed. To learn more see Nasan Moving Average.
Forecast Points Calculation:
Calculates maximum (max_val) and minimum (min_val) values for the forecast, either using a fixed value or based on standard deviation and a multiplier.
Initializes an array to store forecast values and creates polyline objects for plotting.
If the current bar is one of the last three bars and confirmed:
Clears and reinitializes the polyline.
Initializes the first forecast value from the cumulative sum c.
Generates subsequent forecast values using a random value within the range .
Updates the forecast array and plots the forecast points as an orange curved polyline.
Plotting Max/Min Values:
Plots max_val and min_val as green and red lines, respectively, to indicate the bounds of the forecast range.
Components of the Forecasting Model
Historical Dependence:
Nasan Moving Average Calculation: The script calculates a custom moving average (c6) that incorporates historical price data (hlc3), standard deviations (sd), and weighted moving averages (wma). This part of the code processes historical data to create a smoothed representation of the price trend.
Max/Min Value Calculation: The maximum (max_val) and minimum (min_val) values for the forecast can be calculated based on the historical standard deviation of a transformed variable b over a block length (bl). This introduces historical volatility into the bounds for the forecast.
Random Walk Model:
Random Value Generation: Within the forecast points calculation, a random value (random_val) is generated for each forecast point within the range . This random value introduces stochasticity into the model, characteristic of a random walk process.
Cumulative Sum for Forecasting: The script uses a cumulative sum (prev_f + random_val) to generate the next forecast point (next_f). This is a typical approach in random walk models where each new point is based on the previous point plus some random noise.
Explanation of the Forecast Model
Random Walk Characteristics: Each new forecast point is generated by adding a random value to the previous point, making the model a random walk with drift, where the drift is influenced by historical correction factors (c1, c4).
Historical and Statistical Dependence: The bounds of the random values and the initial conditions are derived from historical data, ensuring that the forecast respects historical volatility and trends.
The forecasting model in the script is a hybrid approach: It uses a random walk to generate future points, characterized by adding random values to the previous forecasted value.
The historical and statistical dependence is incorporated through initial conditions, scaling factors, and bounds derived from historical price data and its statistical properties.
This combination ensures that the forecasts are not purely stochastic but are grounded in historical price behavior, making the model more robust and potentially more accurate in reflecting market conditions.
Price Reversal Probability + Price Forecast [TradeDots]The TradeDots Price Reversal Probability + Price Forecast Indicator helps traders discern market direction and identify potential trading opportunities.
📝 HOW IT WORKS
The indicator provides two types of reversal signals:
Bullish Reversal: Marked with a green label, indicating an expected upward market reversal.
Bearish Reversal: Marked with a red label, indicating an expected downward market reversal.
⭐️ Computation
This tool identifies significant reversal patterns using a mathematical model on a designated window of candlesticks to calculate price action changes. It incorporates candlestick data and price indicators, such as the Open, Close, High, Low of candlesticks and Average True Range (ATR), to detect similar occurrences in real-time.
Potential market turning points are marked with reversal labels and percentage changes , calculated using pivot high or low price data from the last reversal patterns of the opposite side.
For example, a green label on the chart indicates a bullish reversal pattern, showing the market is expected to reverse upward. However, signals are based on historical price actions and are not 100% accurate. If the price breaks down from the bullish reversal pivot low, the original signal will turn half transparent until the next reversal pattern is detected.
The algorithm groups consecutive bullish reversal patterns until a bearish reversal pattern appears. The last bullish label occurrence indicates the maximum number of bullish patterns required to confirm a reversal in the group. This information is stored to apply Bayesian statistical models and probability models to generate market insights.
⭐️ Statistical Analysis
Reversal signals are categorized into bullish and bearish groups, with each group storing consecutive reversal signals.
In the indicator table, each new reversal is labeled sequentially (e.g., "🟢 #1" for the first bullish reversal after a bearish signal). The number increases for each new signal on the same side and resets when a reversal signal on the opposite side appears.
The indicator provides two forecasts: the probability of reversal and the expected price change if the pattern is successful or unsuccessful.
⭐️ Probability of Reversal
By counting the number of consecutive reversal patterns on one side before a reversal pattern on the opposite side appears, we can calculate the probability of reversal of each signal throughout the entire price action history.
Using Bayes’ Theorem, the probability increases with each consecutive pattern. The values are displayed in the first two columns of the indicator table, with the current condition highlighted in orange.
⭐️ Price Forecast
The price forecast uses the pivot point of the last reversal pattern of the opposite side as a reference for calculating the percentage change.
For example, for a group of bullish patterns, the pivot high of the most recent bearish pattern is taken. A percentage is calculated with the pivot low of all bullish patterns in the same group. Repeating this model throughout the entire historical price action patterns gives the average price percentage difference between all bearish and bullish patterns.
Whenever a new reversal pattern is detected, a price can be forecasted using the percentage difference from the statistical model. The target price is calculated and displayed in the third and fourth columns of the indicator table.
Assisting Traders To Make Data-Informed Trading Decisions
All included features in this indicator:
Labeling of bullish and bearish reversal patterns
Success probability of each reversal pattern
Price targets of each reversal pattern
Visual aid for pattern confirmation
More (check the changelog below for current features)
🛠️ HOW TO USE
⭐️ Reversal Signals
There are two types of reversal signals identified by the algorithm that detects reversal patterns using price action analysis with candlestick data and price indicators. When the price breaks out from the labeled pivot, the label will turn half transparent.
Bullish reversal signals: Labeled in green. The number represents the price of the candlestick "low," and the percentage value indicates the price difference from the previous bearish reversal pattern's candlestick "high."
Bearish reversal signals: Labeled in red. The number represents the price of the candlestick "high," and the percentage value indicates the price difference from the previous bullish reversal pattern's candlestick "low."
⭐️ Probability Table
The probability table shows the likelihood of reversal for each number of occurrences of bullish and bearish reversal signals, displayed in the first two columns.
It also shows the target prices for both bullish and bearish conditions for each number of reversal patterns.
⭐️ Price Targets
By combining the probability of reversal and the price forecast, price targets for new reversal patterns are calculated. These insights help traders align their strategies with price action analysis and statistics by simply observing the candlestick chart in real-time.
Bullish Price Target: The average percentage price and probability that the next bearish reversal signal might hit.
Bearish Price Target: The average percentage price and probability that the next bullish reversal signal might hit.
⭐️ Market Trend Panel
The market trend panel is a small table that indicates the market trend using a 200 Exponential Moving Average (EMA) alongside reversal signals. A bullish reversal pattern above the moving average indicates a "bullish" market, while a bearish reversal pattern below it indicates a "bearish" market. If the price fluctuates around the moving average, it is identified as "choppy."
The panel also shows the risk and reward for each trade by taking the closing bullish and bearish targets from the most recent reversal pattern's price reference. Lastly, it displays the probability of reversal, consistent with the number highlighted in the probability table.
⭐️ Other Visual Aid
Other visual aids visualize the market trend and potential direction for users on the candlestick chart.
Background colors reflect the current market trend (green = bullish, red = bearish, blue = choppy).
A white plotted line represents the moving average for categorizing market trends.
❗️LIMITATIONS
Price targets represent only the mean of percentage differences. Therefore, the price could reverse before hitting either side of the price target.
When the market is in extreme price action or a new market pattern, the price targets may not be forecasted accurately and might move out of the model's range.
This model works best for assets with less price variation and a near-Gaussian distribution in returns. It may be less accurate for assets with random price movements.
CONCLUSION
This indicator uses fundamental statistics and mathematical models to generate reversal probabilities and price forecasts. It does not have the ability to predict the future with certainty. Traders should combine this indicator with other confirmation strategies to make informed investment decisions.
See Author's instructions below to get instant access to this indicator.
RISK DISCLAIMER
Trading entails substantial risk, and most day traders incur losses. All content, tools, scripts, articles, and education provided by TradeDots serve purely informational and educational purposes. Past performances are not definitive predictors of future results.
NOTES*
Calculations are based on historical data and do not guarantee future results.
Reversals exceeding ten consecutive occurrences are rare (likely <1% of total occurrences).
Users SHOULD NOT blindly follow the price targets as their trading strategy.
If you encounter a timeout with this indicator, reapply it to your chart.
LDPM Crossover Scanner AddonThe LDPM Crossover Scanner is designed to be used in conjunction with the Liquidity Dependent Price Movement Algorithm and is included with LDPM access.
The LDPM Crossover Scanner displays the LDPM status for up to 10 equity's. When conditions are bearish, per LDPM, the equity will light up on the scanner; otherwise, the equity will not light up.
When used in aggregate, this becomes a particularly useful way to measure up-coming market moves (especially when the crossover scanner showcases equities with significant beta to the chart's underlying!).
Johnny's Trend Lines, Supports and ResistancesInspired and based on ismailcarlik's Trend Lines, Supports and Resistances.
Additions include an overall upgrade to Pinescript v5, changes in the way resistance and support levels are calculated, improved visual queues, and additional customization options.
This indicator is meticulously crafted to provide traders with visual tools for identifying trend lines, support, and resistance levels, enhancing the decision-making process in trading activities.
Features and Functionality
Trend Lines: The indicator allows users to enable or disable trend lines, adjust the number of points to check for establishing a trend, and set parameters for trend validation, including the maximum violation and exceptions for the last bars.
Support and Resistance: It offers tools to identify and visualize key support and resistance levels based on recent pivot points. This includes adjustable parameters for the maximum violations allowed and the exclusion of recent bars from the analysis.
Pivot Points: Users can define the pivot length for calculating highs and lows, which helps in marking significant pivot points that are instrumental in trend analysis.
Alerts and Notifications: The indicator is equipped with customizable alerts for trend line breaches and pivot point formations, which can be set to trigger at different frequencies based on user preference.
How It Works
Input Flexibility: Users can adjust various settings like the length of trend lines and pivot points, enabling or disabling specific features like marking pivots, and managing alert settings directly from the indicator’s input panel.
Dynamic Analysis: By analyzing the price action relative to the calculated trend lines and pivot points, the indicator dynamically identifies potential trend reversals, continuations, and significant price levels.
Visualization: It plots trend lines and marks support and resistance levels directly on the chart, with options to extend these lines and add labels for better clarity. Violated trend lines can be visually differentiated by changing their style and width.
Practical Application
Trend Line Strategy: Traders can use the trend lines to determine the strength of the current market trend and to spot potential reversal points.
Support and Resistance Strategy: By marking where the price has historically faced resistance or found support, traders can plan entry and exit points, set stop-loss orders, or identify breakout opportunities.
Pivot Points Strategy: Pivot points serve as vital indicators for intraday trading or long-term trend analysis, providing insights into potential support and resistance levels.
Customization and Alerts
Custom Alerts: Traders can set alerts for when the price crosses trend lines or when new support or resistance levels are formed, helping them stay informed of critical market movements without having to continuously monitor the charts.
Visual Customization: Users can personalize the appearance of trend lines and labels, choosing from a variety of colors and styles to match their chart setup or preferences.
"Johnny's Trend Lines, Supports and Resistances" is an essential tool for traders who rely on technical analysis, offering detailed insights and real-time updates on market conditions, trend strength, and potential price barriers.
Pivot Profit Target [Mxwll]Introducing the Pivot Profit Target!
This script identifies recent pivot highs/lows and calculates the expected minimum distance for the next pivot, which acts as an approximate profit target.
The image above details the indicator's output.
The image above shows a table consisting of projection statistics.
How to use
The Pivot Profit Targets can be used to approximate a profit target for your trade.
Identify where your entry is relative to the most recent pivot, and assess whether the minimum expected distance for the most recent pivot has been exceeded. Treat the zones as an approximation.
If your trade aligns with the most recent pivot - treat the minimum expected distance zone as a potential profit target area. Of course, price might stop short or continue beyond the projection area!
That's it! Just a short and sweet script; thank you!
Edge AI Forecast [Edge Terminal]This indicator inputs the previous 150 closing prices in a simple two-layer neural network, normalizes the network inputs using a sigmoid function, uses a feedforward calculation to send it to the second layer, shows the MSE loss curve and uses both automatic and manual backpropagation (user input) to find the most likely forecast values and uses the analog forecasting algorithm to adjust and optimize the data furthermore to display potential prices on the chart.
Here's how it works:
The idea behind this script is to train a simple neural network to predict the future x values based on the sample data. For this, we use 2 types of data, Price and Volume.
The thinking behind this is that price alone can’t be used in this case because it doesn’t provide enough meaningful pattern data for the network but price and volume together can change the game. We’re planning to use more different data sets and expand on this in the future.
To avoid a bad mix of results, we technically have two neural networks, each processing a different data type, one for volume data and one for price data.
The actual prediction is decided by the way price and volume of the closing price relate to each other. Basically, the network passes the price and volume and finds the best relation between the two data set outputs and predicts where the price could be based on the upcoming volume of the latest candle.
The network adjusts the weights and biases using optimization algorithms like gradient descent to minimize the difference between the predicted and actual stock prices, typically measured by a loss function, (in this case, mean squared error) which you can see using the error rate bubble.
This is a good measure to see how well the network is performing and the idea is to adjust the settings inputs such as learning rate, epochs and data source to get the lowest possible error rate. That’s when you’re getting the most accurate prediction results.
For each data set, we use a multi-layer network. In a multi-layer neural network, the outputs of neurons in one layer serve as inputs to neurons in the next layer. Initially, the input layer of the neural network receives the historical data. Each input neuron represents a feature, such as previous stock prices and trading volumes over a specific period.
The hidden layers perform feature extraction and transformation through a series of weighted connections and activation functions. Each neuron in a hidden layer computes a weighted sum of the inputs from the previous layer, applies an activation function to the sum, and passes the result to the next layer using the feedforward (activation) function.
For extraction, we use a normalization function. This function takes a value or data (such as bar price) and divides it up by max scale which is the highest possible value of the bar. The idea is to take a normalized number, which is either below 1 or under 2 for simple use in the neural network layers.
For the activation, after computing the weighted sum, the neuron applies an activation function a(x). To introduce non-linearity into the model to pass it to the next layer. We use sigmoid activation functions in this case. The main reason we use sigmoid function is because the resulting number is between 0 to 1 and is better for models where we have to predict the probability as an output.
The final output of the network is passed as an input to the analog forecasting function. This is an algorithm commonly used in weather prediction systems. In this case, this is used to make predictions by comparing current values and assuming the patterns might repeat in the future.
There are many different ways to build an analog forecasting function but in our case, we’re used similarity measurement model:
X, as the current situation or set of current variables.
Y, as the outcome or variable of interest.
Si as the historical situations or patterns, where i ranges from 1 to n.
Vi as the vector of variables describing historical situation Si.
Oi as the outcome associated with historical situation Si.
First, we define a similarity measure sim(X,Vi) that quantifies the similarity between the current situation X and historical situation Si based on their respective variables Vi.
Then we select the K most similar historical situations (KNN Machine learning) based on the similarity measure sim(X,Vi). We denote the rest of the selected historical situations as {Si1, Si2,...Sik).
Then we examine the outcomes associated with the selected historical situations {Oi1, Oi2,...,Oik}.
Then we use the outcomes of the selected historical situations to forecast the future outcome Y^ using weighted averaging.
Finally, the output value of the analog forecasting is standardized using a standardization function which is the opposite of the normalization function. This function takes a normalized number and turns it back to its original value by multiplying it by the max scale (highest value of the bar). This function is used when the final number is produced by the network output at the end of the analog forecasting to turn the final value back into a price so it can be displayed on the chart with PineScript.
Settings:
Data source: Source of the neural network's input data.
Sample Bars: How many historical bars do you want to input into the neural network
Prediction Bars: How many bars you want the script to forecast
Show Training Rate: This shows the neural network's error rate for the optimization phase
Learning Rate: how many times you want the script to change the model in response to the estimated error (automatic)
Epochs: the network cycle or how many times you want to run the data through the network from the first layer to the last one.
Usage:
The sample bars input determines the number of historical bars to be used as a reference for the network. You need to change the Epochs and Learning Rate inputs for each asset and chart timeframe to get the lowest error rate.
On the surface, the highest possible epoch and learning rate should produce the most effective results but that's not always the case.
If the epochs rate is too high, there is a chance we face overfitting. Essentially, you might be over processing good data which can make it useless.
On the other hand, if the learning rate is too high, the network may overshoot the optimal solution and diverge. This is almost like the same issue I mentioned above with a high epoch rate.
Access:
It took over 4 months to develop this script and we’re constantly improving it so it took a lot of manpower to develop this script. Also when it comes to neural networks, Pine Script isn’t the most optimal language to build a neural network in, so we had to resort to a few proprietary mathematical formulas to ensure this runs smoothly without giving out an error for overprocessing, specially when you have multiple neural networks with many layers.
The optimization done to make this script run on Pine Script is basically state of the art and because of this, we would like to keep the code closed source at the moment.
On the other hand we don’t want to publish the code publicly as we want to keep the trading edge this script gives us in a closed loop, for our own small group of members so we have to keep the code closed. We only accept invites from expert traders who understand how this script and algo trading works and the type of edge it provides.
Additionally, at the moment we don’t want to share the code as some of the parts of this network, specifically the way we hand the data from neural network output into the analog method formula are proprietary code and we’d like to keep it that way.
You can contact us for access and if we believe this works for your trading case, we will provide you with access.
RSI AcceleratorThe Relative Strength Index (RSI) is like a fitness tracker for the underlying time series. It measures how overbought or oversold an asset is, which is kinda like saying how tired or energized it is.
When the RSI goes too high, it suggests the asset might be tired and due for a rest, so it could be a sign it's gonna drop. On the flip side, when the RSI goes too low, it's like the asset is pumped up and ready to go, so it might be a sign it's gonna bounce back up. Basically, it helps traders figure out if a stock is worn out or revved up, which can be handy for making decisions about buying or selling.
The RSI Accelerator takes the difference between a short-term RSI(5) and a longer-term RSI(14) to detect short-term movements. When the short-term RSI rises more than the long-term RSI, it typically refers to a short-term upside acceleration.
The conditions of the signals through the RSI Accelerator are as follows:
* A bullish signal is generated whenever the Accelerator surpasses -20 after having been below it.
* A bearish signal is generated whenever the Accelerator breaks 20 after having been above it.
Hurst Future Lines of Demarcation StrategyJ. M. Hurst introduced a concept in technical analysis known as the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD), which serves as a forward-looking tool by incorporating a simple yet profound line into future projections on a financial chart. Specifically, the FLD is constructed by offsetting the price half a cycle ahead into the future on the time axis, relative to the Hurst Cycle of interest. For instance, in the context of a 40 Day Cycle, the FLD would be represented by shifting the current price data 20 days forward on the chart, offering an idea of future price movement anticipations.
The utility of FLDs extends into three critical areas of insight, which form the backbone of the FLD Trading Strategy:
A price crossing the FLD signifies the confirmation of either a peak or trough formation, indicating pivotal moments in price action.
Such crossings also help determine precise price targets for the upcoming peak or trough, aligned with the cycle of examination.
Additionally, the occurrence of a peak in the FLD itself signals a probable zone where the price might experience a trough, helping to anticipate of future price movements.
These insights by Hurst in his "Cycles Trading Course" during the 1970s, are instrumental for traders aiming to determine entry and exit points, and to forecast potential price movements within the market.
To use the FLD Trading Strategy, for example when focusing on the 40 Day Cycle, a trader should primarily concentrate on the interplay between three Hurst Cycles:
The 20 Day FLD (Signal) - Half the length of the Trade Cycle
The 40 Day FLD (Trade) - The Cycle you want to trade
The 80 Day FLD (Trend) - Twice the length of the Trade Cycle
Traders can gauge trend or consolidation by watching for two critical patterns:
Cascading patterns, characterized by several FLDs running parallel with a consistent separation, typically emerge during pronounced market trends, indicating strong directional momentum.
Consolidation patterns, on the other hand, occur when multiple FLDs intersect and navigate within the same price bandwidth, often reversing direction to traverse this range multiple times. This tangled scenario results in the formation of Pause Zones, areas where price momentum is likely to temporarily stall or where the emergence of a significant trend might be delayed.
This simple FLD indicator provides 3 FLDs with optional source input and smoothing, A-through-H FLD interaction background, adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers, and a simple strategy for backtesting it all.
The A-through-H FLD interactions are a framework designed to classify the different types of price movements as they intersect with or diverge from the Future Line of Demarcation (FLD). Each interaction (designated A through H by color) represents a specific phase or characteristic within the cycle, and understanding these can help traders anticipate future price movements and make informed decisions.
The adjustable “Close the Trade” triggers are for setting the crossover/under that determines the trade exits. The options include: Price, Signal FLD, Trade FLD, or Trend FLD. For example, a trader may want to exit trades only when price finally crosses the Trade FLD line.
Shoutouts & Credits for all the raw code, helpful information, ideas & collaboration, conversations together, introductions, indicator feedback, and genuine/selfless help:
🏆 @TerryPascoe
🏅 @Hpotter
👏 @parisboy
Momentum Ghost Machine [ChartPrime]Momentum Ghost Machine (ChartPrime) is designed to be the next generation in momentum/rate of change analysis. This indicator utilizes the properties of one of our favorite filters to create a more accurate and stable momentum oscillator by using a high quality filtered delayed signal to do the momentum comparison.
Traditional momentum/roc uses the raw price data to compare current price to previous price to generate a directional oscillator. This leaves the oscillator prone to false readings and noisy outputs that leave traders unsure of the real likelihood of a future movement. One way to mitigate this issue would be to use some sort of moving average. Unfortunately, this can only go so far because simple moving average algorithms result in a poor reconstruction of the actual shape of the underlying signal.
The windowed sinc low pass filter is a linear phase filter, meaning that it doesn't change the shape or size of the original signal when applied. This results in a faithful reconstruction of the original signal, but without the "high frequency noise". Just like any filter, the process of applying it requires that we have "future" samples resulting in a time delay for real time applications. Fortunately this is a great thing in the context of a momentum oscillator because we need some representation of past price data to compare the current price data to. By using an ideal low pass filter to generate this delayed signal we can super charge the momentum oscillator and fix the majority of issues its predecessors had.
This indicator has a few extra features that other momentum/roc indicators dont have. One major yet simple improvement is the inclusion of a moving average to help gauge the rate of change of this indicator. Since we included a moving average, we thought it would only be appropriate to add a histogram to help visualize the relationship between the signal and its average. To go further with this we have also included linear extrapolation to further help you predict the momentum and direction of this oscillator. Included with this extrapolation we have also added the histogram in the extrapolation to further enhance its visual interpretation. Finally, the inclusion of a candle coloring feature really drives how the utility of the Momentum Machine .
There are three distinct options when using the candle coloring feature: Direct, MA, and Both. With direct the candles will be colored based on the indicators direction and polarity. When it is above zero and moving up, it displays a green color. When it is above zero and moving down it will display a light green color. Conversely, when the indicator is below zero and moving down it displays a red color, and when it it moving up and below zero it will display a light red color. MA coloring will color the candles just like a MACD. If the signal is above its MA and moving up it will display a green color, and when it is above its MA and moving down it will display a light green color.
When the signal is below its MA and moving down it will display a red color, and when its below its ma and moving up it will display a light red color. Both combines the two into a single color scheme providing you with the best of both worlds. If the indicator is above zero it will display the MA colors with a slight twist. When the indicator is moving down and is below its MA it will display a lighter color than before, and when it is below zero and is above its MA it will display a darker color color.
Length of 50 with a smoothing of 100
Length of 50 with a smoothing of 25
By default, the indicator is set to a momentum length of 50, with a post smoothing of 2. We have chosen the longer period for the momentum length to highlight the performance of this indicator compared to its ancestors. A major point to consider with this indicator is that you can only achieve so much smoothing for a chosen delay. This is because more data is required to produce a smoother signal at a specified length. Once you have selected your desired momentum length you can then select your desired momentum smoothing . This is made possible by the use of the windowed sinc low pass algorithm because it includes a frequency cutoff argument. This means that you can have as little or as much smoothing as you please without impacting the period of the indicator. In the provided examples above this paragraph is a visual representation of what is going on under the hood of this indicator. The blue line is the filtered signal being compared to the current closing price. As you can see, the filtered signal is very smooth and accurately represents the underlying price action without noise.
We hope that users can find the same utility as we did in this indicator and that it levels up your analysis utilizing the momentum oscillator or rate of change.
Enjoy
Machine Learning: Multiple Logistic Regression
Multiple Logistic Regression Indicator
The Logistic Regression Indicator for TradingView is a versatile tool that employs multiple logistic regression based on various technical indicators to generate potential buy and sell signals. By utilizing key indicators such as RSI, CCI, DMI, Aroon, EMA, and SuperTrend, the indicator aims to provide a systematic approach to decision-making in financial markets.
How It Works:
Technical Indicators:
The script uses multiple technical indicators such as RSI, CCI, DMI, Aroon, EMA, and SuperTrend as input variables for the logistic regression model.
These indicators are normalized to create categorical variables, providing a consistent scale for the model.
Logistic Regression:
The logistic regression function is applied to the normalized input variables (x1 to x6) with user-defined coefficients (b0 to b6).
The logistic regression model predicts the probability of a binary outcome, with values closer to 1 indicating a bullish signal and values closer to 0 indicating a bearish signal.
Loss Function (Cross-Entropy Loss):
The cross-entropy loss function is calculated to quantify the difference between the predicted probability and the actual outcome.
The goal is to minimize this loss, which essentially measures the model's accuracy.
// Error Function (cross-entropy loss)
loss(y, p) =>
-y * math.log(p) - (1 - y) * math.log(1 - p)
// y - depended variable
// p - multiple logistic regression
Gradient Descent:
Gradient descent is an optimization algorithm used to minimize the loss function by adjusting the weights of the logistic regression model.
The script iteratively updates the weights (b1 to b6) based on the negative gradient of the loss function with respect to each weight.
// Adjusting model weights using gradient descent
b1 -= lr * (p + loss) * x1
b2 -= lr * (p + loss) * x2
b3 -= lr * (p + loss) * x3
b4 -= lr * (p + loss) * x4
b5 -= lr * (p + loss) * x5
b6 -= lr * (p + loss) * x6
// lr - learning rate or step of learning
// p - multiple logistic regression
// x_n - variables
Learning Rate:
The learning rate (lr) determines the step size in the weight adjustment process. It prevents the algorithm from overshooting the minimum of the loss function.
Users can set the learning rate to control the speed and stability of the optimization process.
Visualization:
The script visualizes the output of the logistic regression model by coloring the SMA.
Arrows are plotted at crossover and crossunder points, indicating potential buy and sell signals.
Lables are showing logistic regression values from 1 to 0 above and below bars
Table Display:
A table is displayed on the chart, providing real-time information about the input variables, their values, and the learned coefficients.
This allows traders to monitor the model's interpretation of the technical indicators and observe how the coefficients change over time.
How to Use:
Parameter Adjustment:
Users can adjust the length of technical indicators (rsi_length, cci_length, etc.) and the Z score length based on their preference and market characteristics.
Set the initial values for the regression coefficients (b0 to b6) and the learning rate (lr) according to your trading strategy.
Signal Interpretation:
Buy signals are indicated by an upward arrow (▲), and sell signals are indicated by a downward arrow (▼).
The color-coded SMA provides a visual representation of the logistic regression output by color.
Table Information:
Monitor the table for real-time information on the input variables, their values, and the learned coefficients.
Keep an eye on the learning rate to ensure a balance between model adjustment speed and stability.
Backtesting and Validation:
Before using the script in live trading, conduct thorough backtesting to evaluate its performance under different market conditions.
Validate the model against historical data to ensure its reliability.
Bitcoin Leverage Sentiment - Strategy [presentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The "Bitcoin Leverage Sentiment - Strategy " represents a novel approach in the realm of cryptocurrency trading by focusing on sentiment analysis through leveraged positions in Bitcoin. Unlike traditional strategies that primarily rely on price action or technical indicators, this strategy leverages the power of Z-Score analysis to gauge market sentiment by examining the ratio of leveraged long to short positions. By assessing how far the current sentiment deviates from the historical norm, it provides a unique lens to spot potential reversals or continuation in market trends, making it an innovative tool for traders who wish to incorporate market psychology into their trading arsenal.
BTC 4h L/S Performance
local
█ Strategy, How It Works: Detailed Explanation
🔶 Data Collection and Ratio Calculation
Firstly, the strategy acquires data on leveraged long (**`priceLongs`**) and short positions (**`priceShorts`**) for Bitcoin. The primary metric of interest is the ratio of long positions relative to the total of both long and short positions:
BTC Ratio=priceLongs / (priceLongs+priceShorts)
This ratio reflects the prevailing market sentiment, where values closer to 1 indicate a bullish sentiment (dominance of long positions), and values closer to 0 suggest bearish sentiment (prevalence of short positions).
🔶 Z-Score Calculation
The Z-Score is then calculated to standardize the BTC Ratio, allowing for comparison across different time periods. The Z-Score formula is:
Z = (X - μ) / σ
Where:
- X is the current BTC Ratio.
- μ is the mean of the BTC Ratio over a specified period (**`zScoreCalculationPeriod`**).
- σ is the standard deviation of the BTC Ratio over the same period.
The Z-Score helps quantify how far the current sentiment deviates from the historical norm, with high positive values indicating extreme bullish sentiment and high negative values signaling extreme bearish sentiment.
🔶 Signal Generation: Trading signals are derived from the Z-Score as follows:
Long Entry Signal: Occurs when the BTC Ratio Z-Score crosses above the thresholdLongEntry, suggesting bullish sentiment.
- Condition for Long Entry = BTC Ratio Z-Score > thresholdLongEntry
Long Exit/Short Entry Signal: Triggered when the BTC Ratio Z-Score drops below thresholdLongExit for exiting longs or below thresholdShortEntry for entering shorts, indicating a shift to bearish sentiment.
- Condition for Long Exit/Short Entry = BTC Ratio Z-Score < thresholdLongExit or BTC Ratio Z-Score < thresholdShortEntry
Short Exit Signal: Happens when the BTC Ratio Z-Score exceeds the thresholdShortExit, hinting at reducing bearish sentiment and a potential switch to bullish conditions.
- Condition for Short Exit = BTC Ratio Z-Score > thresholdShortExit
🔶Implementation and Visualization: The strategy applies these conditions for trade management, aligning with the selected trade direction. It visualizes the BTC Ratio Z-Score with horizontal lines at entry and exit thresholds, illustrating the current sentiment against historical norms.
█ Trade Direction
The strategy offers flexibility in trade direction, allowing users to choose between long, short, or both, depending on their market outlook and risk tolerance. This adaptability ensures that traders can align the strategy with their individual trading style and market conditions.
█ Usage
To employ this strategy effectively:
1. Customization: Begin by setting the trade direction and adjusting the Z-Score calculation period and entry/exit thresholds to match your trading preferences.
2. Observation: Monitor the Z-Score and its moving average for potential trading signals. Look for crossover events relative to the predefined thresholds to identify entry and exit points.
3. Confirmation: Consider using additional analysis or indicators for signal confirmation, ensuring a comprehensive approach to decision-making.
█ Default Settings
- Trade Direction: Determines if the strategy engages in long, short, or both types of trades, impacting its adaptability to market conditions.
- Timeframe Input: Influences signal frequency and sensitivity, affecting the strategy's responsiveness to market dynamics.
- Z-Score Calculation Period: Affects the strategy’s sensitivity to market changes, with longer periods smoothing data and shorter periods increasing responsiveness.
- Entry and Exit Thresholds: Set the Z-Score levels for initiating or exiting trades, balancing between capturing opportunities and minimizing false signals.
- Impact of Default Settings: Provides a balanced approach to leverage sentiment trading, with adjustments needed to optimize performance across various market conditions.
MACD Based Price Forecasting [LuxAlgo]The MACD Based Price Forecasting tool is an innovative price forecasting method based on signals generated by the MACD indicator.
The forecast includes an area which can help traders determine the area where price can develop after a MACD signal.
🔶 USAGE
The forecast returned by the tool allows users to obtain a general picture of how price tends to progress after a specific MACD signal. The forecast is constructed based on percentiles of previous price progressions done after a specific MACD signal is generated.
Users can change which condition is used to generate MACD signals from the "Trend Determination" dropdown menu, with "MACD" determining trends based on whether the MACD is positive (uptrend) or negative (downtrend) and "MACD-Signal" determining trends based on the position of the MACD relative to its signal line, with an MACD above the signal line indicating an uptrend, else a downtrend.
Users can introduce bias to the forecast by changing the "Average Percentage" setting, with values above 50% introducing bullish bias, and below bearish bias.
It can be possible for the forecast to highlight potential reversals depending on the selected forecasting horizon as long as reversals can be observed on trends detected by the MACD.
🔹 Forecasting Area
The forecasting area can help visualize the area that will likely contain price after a specific signal. The area width is based on the "Top/Bottom Percentiles" settings, with a higher "Top Percentile" value returning a higher top bound and a lower "Bottom Percentile" value returning a lower bottom bound.
These areas can also serve as potential support/resistance areas.
🔶 SETTINGS
Fast Length: Fast length of the moving average used to compute the MACD
Slow Length: Slow length of the moving average used to compute the MACD
Signal Length: Length of the MACD moving average.
Trend Determination: Method used to determine a trend direction from the MACD.
🔹 Forecast
Maximum Memory: Determines the maximum amount of prices recorded at each steps succeeding a signal. Lower values will return forecasts with a higher degree of variability.
Forecasting Length: Forecasting horizon in bars, this value only serves as a limit of the forecasting horizon and might not be reached depending on user selected MACD settings.
Top Percentile: Percentile value used to determine the upper bound of the forecasting area.
Average Percentile: Percentile value used to determine the forecast.
Lower Percentile: Percentile value used to determine the lower bound of the forecasting area.
Session breakThis indicator will show future lines before each session start. It will only show London session and US session start.
You can change the color of the lines and time as per day light savings.
AI SuperTrend x Pivot Percentile - Strategy [PresentTrading]█ Introduction and How it is Different
The AI SuperTrend x Pivot Percentile strategy is a sophisticated trading approach that integrates AI-driven analysis with traditional technical indicators. Combining the AI SuperTrend with the Pivot Percentile strategy highlights several key advantages:
1. Enhanced Accuracy in Trend Prediction: The AI SuperTrend utilizes K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN) algorithm for trend prediction, improving accuracy by considering historical data patterns. This is complemented by the Pivot Percentile analysis which provides additional context on trend strength.
2. Comprehensive Market Analysis: The integration offers a multi-faceted approach to market analysis, combining AI insights with traditional technical indicators. This dual approach captures a broader range of market dynamics.
BTC 6H L/S Performance
Local
█ Strategy: How it Works - Detailed Explanation
🔶 AI-Enhanced SuperTrend Indicators
1. SuperTrend Calculation:
- The SuperTrend indicator is calculated using a moving average and the Average True Range (ATR). The basic formula is:
- Upper Band = Moving Average + (Multiplier × ATR)
- Lower Band = Moving Average - (Multiplier × ATR)
- The moving average type (SMA, EMA, WMA, RMA, VWMA) and the length of the moving average and ATR are adjustable parameters.
- The direction of the trend is determined based on the position of the closing price in relation to these bands.
2. AI Integration with K-Nearest Neighbors (KNN):
- The KNN algorithm is applied to predict trend direction. It uses historical price data and SuperTrend values to classify the current trend as bullish or bearish.
- The algorithm calculates the 'distance' between the current data point and historical points. The 'k' nearest data points (neighbors) are identified based on this distance.
- A weighted average of these neighbors' trends (bullish or bearish) is calculated to predict the current trend.
For more please check: Multi-TF AI SuperTrend with ADX - Strategy
🔶 Pivot Percentile Analysis
1. Percentile Calculation:
- This involves calculating the percentile ranks for high and low prices over a set of predefined lengths.
- The percentile function is typically defined as:
- Percentile = Value at (P/100) × (N + 1)th position
- Where P is the desired percentile, and N is the number of data points.
2. Trend Strength Evaluation:
- The calculated percentiles for highs and lows are used to determine the strength of bullish and bearish trends.
- For instance, a high percentile rank in the high prices may indicate a strong bullish trend, and vice versa for bearish trends.
For more please check: Pivot Percentile Trend - Strategy
🔶 Strategy Integration
1. Combining SuperTrend and Pivot Percentile:
- The strategy synthesizes the insights from both AI-enhanced SuperTrend and Pivot Percentile analysis.
- It compares the trend direction indicated by the SuperTrend with the strength of the trend as suggested by the Pivot Percentile analysis.
2. Signal Generation:
- A trading signal is generated when both the AI-enhanced SuperTrend and the Pivot Percentile analysis agree on the trend direction.
- For instance, a bullish signal is generated when both the SuperTrend is bullish, and the Pivot Percentile analysis shows strength in bullish trends.
🔶 Risk Management and Filters
- ADX and DMI Filter: The strategy uses the Average Directional Index (ADX) and the Directional Movement Index (DMI) as filters to assess the trend's strength and direction.
- Dynamic Trailing Stop Loss: Based on the SuperTrend indicator, the strategy dynamically adjusts stop-loss levels to manage risk effectively.
This strategy stands out for its ability to combine real-time AI analysis with established technical indicators, offering traders a nuanced and responsive tool for navigating complex market conditions. The equations and algorithms involved are pivotal in accurately identifying market trends and potential trade opportunities.
█ Usage
To effectively use this strategy, traders should:
1. Understand the AI and Pivot Percentile Indicators: A clear grasp of how these indicators work will enable traders to make informed decisions.
2. Interpret the Signals Accurately: The strategy provides bullish, bearish, and neutral signals. Traders should align these signals with their market analysis and trading goals.
3. Monitor Market Conditions: Given that this strategy is sensitive to market dynamics, continuous monitoring is crucial for timely decision-making.
4. Adjust Settings as Needed: Traders should feel free to tweak the input parameters to suit their trading preferences and to respond to changing market conditions.
█Default Settings and Their Impact on Performance
1. Trading Direction (Default: "Both")
Effect: Determines whether the strategy will take long positions, short positions, or both. Adjusting this setting can align the strategy with the trader's market outlook or risk preference.
2. AI Settings (Neighbors: 3, Data Points: 24)
Neighbors: The number of nearest neighbors in the KNN algorithm. A higher number might smooth out noise but could miss subtle, recent changes. A lower number makes the model more sensitive to recent data but may increase noise.
Data Points: Defines the amount of historical data considered. More data points provide a broader context but may dilute recent trends' impact.
3. SuperTrend Settings (Length: 10, Factor: 3.0, MA Source: "WMA")
Length: Affects the sensitivity of the SuperTrend indicator. A longer length results in a smoother, less sensitive indicator, ideal for long-term trends.
Factor: Determines the bandwidth of the SuperTrend. A higher factor creates wider bands, capturing larger price movements but potentially missing short-term signals.
MA Source: The type of moving average used (e.g., WMA - Weighted Moving Average). Different MA types can affect the trend indicator's responsiveness and smoothness.
4. AI Trend Prediction Settings (Price Trend: 10, Prediction Trend: 80)
Price Trend and Prediction Trend Lengths: These settings define the lengths of weighted moving averages for price and SuperTrend, impacting the responsiveness and smoothness of the AI's trend predictions.
5. Pivot Percentile Settings (Length: 10)
Length: Influences the calculation of pivot percentiles. A shorter length makes the percentile more responsive to recent price changes, while a longer length offers a broader view of price trends.
6. ADX and DMI Settings (ADX Length: 14, Time Frame: 'D')
ADX Length: Defines the period for the Average Directional Index calculation. A longer period results in a smoother ADX line.
Time Frame: Sets the time frame for the ADX and DMI calculations, affecting the sensitivity to market changes.
7. Commission, Slippage, and Initial Capital
These settings relate to transaction costs and initial investment, directly impacting net profitability and strategy feasibility.
