Yield Curve Version 2.41Welcome to Yield Curve Version 2.41
* Please read description to help understand the information displayed.
* NOTE - This script requires 1 real time update before accurate information is displayed, therefore WILL NOT display the correct information if the Bond Market is Closed over the Weekend.
* NOTE - When values are changed Via Input setting they do take a bit to display based off all the information that is required to display this script.
**FEATURES**
* Input Features let you view the information the way YOU like via Input Settings
* Displays Current Version Title - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On
* Plots the Yield Curve of the Bonds listed (Middle Green and Red Line)
* Displays the Spread for each Bond (Top Green and Red Labels) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Change Size via Input Settings - Default On
* Displays the current Yield for each Bond (Bottom Green and Red Labels) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Change Size via Input Settings - Default On - Large Size
* Plots the Average of the Entire Yield Curve (BLUE Line within the Yield Curve) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On
* Displays messages based off Yield Inversions (Orange Text) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On if Applicable
* Displays 2 10 Inversion Warning Message (Orange Text) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On if Applicable
* Plots Column Data at the Bottom that tries to help determine the Stability of the Yield Curve (More information Below about Stability) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On
* Plots the 7,20 and 100 SMA of the STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD (More information Below about Stability Max Overload) - Toggleable On/Off via Input Settings - Default On for 100SMA Off for 7 and 20 SMA
**Bottom Columns are all about STABILITY**
* I have tried to come up with an algorithm that helps understand the Stability of the Yield Curve. There are 3 Sections to the Bottom Columns.
* Section 1 - STABILITY (Displayed as the lightest Green or Red Column) Values range from 0 to 1 where 1 equals the MOST UNSTABLE Curve and 0 equals the MOST STABLE Curve
* Section 2 - STABILITY OVERLOAD (Displayed just above the Stability Column a shade darker Green or Red Column)
* Section 3 - STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD (Displayed just above the Stability Overload Column a shade darker Green or Red Column)
What this section tries to do is help understand the Stability of the Curve based on the inversions data. Lower values represent a MORE STABLE curve. If the Yield Curve currently has 0 Inversions all Stability factors should equal 0 and therefore not plot any lower columns. As the Yield Curve becomes more inverted each section represents a value based off that data. GREEN columns represent a MORE Stable Curve from the resolution prior and vise versa.
STABILITY tests the current Stability of the Curve itself again ranging from 0 to 1 where 0 equals the MOST Stable Curve and 1 equals the MOST Unstable Curve.
STABILIY OVERLOAD adds a value to STABLITY based off STABILITY itself.
STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD adds the Entire value to STABILITY derived again from STABILITY.
This section also allows us to see the 7,20 and 100 SMA of the STABILITY MAX OVERLOAD which should always be the GREATEST of ALL STABILTY COLUMNS.
Remember - All information displayed can be tuned On or Off besides the Curve itself. There are also other Features Accessible Via the Input Settings.
I will continue to update this script as there is more information I would like to gather and display!
I hope you enjoy,
OpptionsOnly
Bonds
Yield CurveThanks to @gwaaf for his post on how to draw the curve!!
* Charts and displays the current Treasury Yield Curve and the Spread.
* Colors Lines and Labels based off price.
* Dynamically adjusts the position of the labels as prices change.
Top Labels:
Top labels display the Spread between listed bonds in regards to Longer term Bonds minus Shorter term Bonds. This label points to the mid point on the curve. If the Spread is greater than the previous Spread at the current resolution, the label and line color on the curve turn Green. If the Spread is less than the previous Spread at the current resolution, the line on the curve and label will turn Red.
Bottom Labels:
Bottom labels display the current for each bond listed. This label points to the (POINT) in the curve that corresponds with the current price of the Bond. The label will turn Green if the current price is higher than the previous price at the current resolution and vise versa!
Known issues:
There seems to be a color swapping issues when the changed is very small. I believe I can fix this with rounding the numbers and will leave that for another time.
Bond Yield Recession IndicatorThis model uses the difference between 10-year and 3-month Treasury rates to calculate the probability of a recession in the United States twelve months ahead.
By a simple gimpse, it has been correct for the last two recessions of 2000 and 2008.
www.newyorkfed.org
fred.stlouisfed.org
Yield Inversion Curve DifferenceDisplays the yield inversion difference on bonds between short term and long term bonds.
Inverted Yield Curve with VIX Fear IndexUS 2 year and US 10 year comparison, inverted yield curve with VIX. I use this on a weekly chart with 2 moving averages, the 40 week (ma200 daily) and the 520 week (10 year median).
The bottom histogram is the VIX and the plot is the yield curve. When the VIX is above a certain level (you can set it in settings) and the ýield curve is close to or at inversion the background goes red.
The last seven recessions were preceded by an inverted yield curve. Here I combined the two main fear indexes, the VIX and the run for safe US treasuries (Inverted Yield Curve).
This is preset to the 2 year and 10 year US bond, weekly, and the normal VIX ticker but you can set it to whatever you like.
Published with source code for anyone to modify. Please comment below if you do so! This is the second in a series of indicators I intend to publish as a package of economic recoverty/recession symptom indicators.
Follow me for updates, next one up is commodities with dr Copper and oil!
