USDJPY: The question is what with FED and interest rate?
USDJPY is floating in a large band between 103,5 and 101 since JAnuary 2014. It was an easy trading. Around 103 you short and at around 101 you go long.
After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD.
But there is a new situation one should keep in mind. Macro economic datas from US are not as good as one could think. Which means that if FED is obliged to continue low interest rate, and with BoJ putting an end to its monetary easing policy, USD could loose ground against the YEN.
Therefore if FED is keeping it's Tappering policy and announce that they will care about an eventual inflation risk, USD will win against YEN and we can then go further up, if not, it will be the other way around toward 97.
After BoJ announcement of the tightening of the monetary policy, and the tappering, the balance and the swing would have been almost the same with a rising trend in favor of USD.
But there is a new situation one should keep in mind. Macro economic datas from US are not as good as one could think. Which means that if FED is obliged to continue low interest rate, and with BoJ putting an end to its monetary easing policy, USD could loose ground against the YEN.
Therefore if FED is keeping it's Tappering policy and announce that they will care about an eventual inflation risk, USD will win against YEN and we can then go further up, if not, it will be the other way around toward 97.