JSE:TKG Telkom Great Wykoff Study

9 dic 2018

It is not a good time to buy Telkom but it makes a good study of the Wyckoff principles. The first thing to notice is the pattern: Markdown - Accumulation - Markup - Distribution - Markdown - Accumulation - Markup and now potentially forming a range again. The next notice the two ways that markups and markdowns en: 1) The first Markup and Markdown ended by an inability to move to the oversold or overbought trend line, 2) The second two had over throws of the lines. Both these setup resulted in a trading range forming. The next thing is to notice how the trading range forms. Only the main labels are added to have less clutter. Volume increases on the Preliminary Supply (PSY) or Support (PS) and it is possible to even be the highest volume for the range as is the case in the Distribution Range. Next a Selling (SC) or Buying (BC) Climax is formed on volume stopping the trend (Phase A). After a Aromatic Rally (AR) or Automatic Reaction (AR) (Still Phase A) a period of low volume in the TR forms where the Composite Operator (CO) is carefully either Distribution or Accumulating stock (Phase B). Once this is done the TR ends in a Spring; Upthrust after Distribution (UTAD) or Last Point of Supply (LPSY) / Support (LPS) Before breaking the TR (Phase C). Once it has been marked out of the TR a backup to the trading range first takes place (Phase D) before the Markup or Markdown can begin (Phase E). Also notice how the Volume RSI can assist in providing a clue if an accumulation or distribution is forming.

9 dic 2018

Nota

Using the Point & Figure charts according to the Wyckoff method targets can be set. Using this study we can see that this method gives a good indication of the price range in which you can expect the next TR to form. By counting the number of bars across the longest area of the Distribution and Accumulation Range from the highest volume spike to the start of the markup or Markdown and then multiplying this with the P&F settings we obtain a target. The current count has been fulfilled and we see a volume spike so a new TR is likely to form.