Super Micro Computer (SMCI): Time to buy in after a -70% drop!

anteayerSince our first analysis a while ago, we've been inching closer and closer to our target area on SMCI. Since then, we've seen a price drop of 40%, which is far from irrelevant, with the stock retracing nearly 70% from its peak. We're witnessing a clear and recurring pattern here—what we call the "staircase to hell." Each push to a level has been met with rejection, which is exactly why we see a buying opportunity forming.

We are now making our first bid here as a market entry. This is intended to be a swing trade that we plan to carry into 2025, with a target of reaching previous highs again. Therefore, we're not worried about getting a "perfect" entry within 1-2% but instead setting a DCA bid a bit lower for an optimal position if SMCI comes down further.

Below the market entry, there's an important Fibonacci cluster that combines the 200% target of Wave C, the 78.6% retracement of Wave (2), and a target for Wave ((v)), all aligning well. With these multiple levels coinciding, there's a strong possibility we will see the price reach this zone. If so, we’ll place another bid to buy more shares.

If SMCI manages to flip the first resistance, we expect it to move up quickly. As we always say, patience is the key to successful swing trading—don’t let greed or fear cloud your decisions 🤝.