Trend lines drawn from the 10/13 pivot day (25d), 10/30 bottom (11d), 11/9 (5d), and today 11/13 (1d).
I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite.
I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Friday, November 13, 2020
I walk alone, I walk alone
Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26%
Good: Closing range near intraday highs
Bad: Lower volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day.
Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock
Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
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Market Overview
The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day.
The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Indexes and Sectors
The S&P 500 (SPX -1.36%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.37%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +2.08%) all had all-time high closes. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial are still below the intraday all-time highs they set on Monday. The RUT closed near its intraday all-time high and is up almost 13% from a bottom on 10/30.
All sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +3.64%), Real Estate (XLRE +2.29) and Industrials (XLI +2.22%) are the biggest winners of the day. Health (XLV +1.26%), Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) had gains but lagged the S&P 500.
The VIX volatility index decreased -8.88%.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Bonds, Greenback and Commodities
Treasury Bond yields increased slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y spread continues to tighten over the past week.
The US dollar (DXY -0.26%) weakened. The Produce Price Index is a bullish indicator for the greenback, but the Consumer Confidence data released from University of Michigan is a bearish signal for the currency.
Gold (GOLD +0.65%) and Silver (SILVER +1.49%) both increased. Timber (WOOD +2.76%) returned from losses yesterday to end the week at a high point.
Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -3.71%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
All four big mega-caps had gains for the day. Only Google (GOOG +1.55%) outperformed the Nasdaq. Apple (AAPL +0.04%) closed nearly even for the day. Microsoft (MSFT +0.50%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) did better but still underperformed the market at open and close and lagged the intraday movement.
Growth stocks continued the mix of gains and losses that have been the hallmark of this week. Fiverr (FVRR +4.97%), JD.COM (JD +6.60%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.59%) were among stocks that had did well. Zoom (ZM -5.85%) and Peloton (PTON +7.29%) were among the stocks that continued to slide as the potential for a new vaccine could change the growth characteristics for these businesses that benefited from lockdowns.
Draft Kings (DKNG +3.85%) beat expectations and gave a great forecast. It gapped at open but dropped nearly 6% in intraday trading.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
Daly and Clarida, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak on Monday about the economy which usually drops hints about monetary policy.
Tyson Foods (TSN +2.50%) will release earnings on Monday, kicking off a week or consumer and retail earnings releases for next week.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support and Resistance
The trend line from the 10/30 bottom has consistently pointed to a new all-time high, as prices moved mostly sideways this week. That would be a +2.38% increase and welcome the index to the group of other indexes trading at all-time highs. Continuing today’s one-day trend line would result in a +0.29% gain.
The five-day trend line is still on a negative slope and pointing to a -1.15% loss for Monday. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.59% loss, right at the 21d EMA.
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Wrap-up
Friday continued the week of rotations, causing a lot of damage to investors favorite watchlists. Its hard to find setups with good entry points when heavy rotations are occurring. Hopefully next week will bring some more resolution around issues impacting the market and give more indication of direction.
Take care!
I am making some changes to the chart presentation and renaming the series to reflect the other data points I'm including. Still based out of the Nasdaq composite.
I do occasionally have some errors or typos and will correct them in my blog or in the comments on TradingView. I do not have an editor and do this in my free time.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Friday, November 13, 2020
I walk alone, I walk alone
Facts: +1.02% higher, Volume lower, Closing range: 85%, Body: 26%
Good: Closing range near intraday highs
Bad: Lower volume
Highs/Lows: Higher high, higher low
Candle: Long lower wick, thin body, nearly an inside day.
Advance/Decline: 2.89, almost 3 advancing stocks for every declining stock
Sectors: Energy (XLE +3.64%) and Real Estate (XLRE +2.29%) at the top. Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) at the bottom.
Expectation: Sideways or Higher
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Overview
The Nasdaq was left out of the all-time high close party where the other indexes celebrated today. It was still a good day, but the focus was on sectors other than Technology, which is heavily represented in the Nasdaq. Producer Price Index (PPI) data came in higher then expected while Core PPI (which excludes Energy and Food) came in lower than expected. Investors seemed to attribute that to the Energy sector, which was the top performing sector of the day.
The Nasdaq index rose +1.02% and ended the day with an 85% closing range and a 26% green body in the upper half of the day. Volume was lower than the prior day. The longer lower wick was formed from morning lows which were not revisited through the rest of the day. A short upper wick formed near close as investors exited positions heading into the weekend. There were three advancing stocks for every declining stock in the Nasdaq.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Indexes and Sectors
The S&P 500 (SPX -1.36%), Dow Jones Industrial average (DHI -1.37%) and Russell 2000 (RUT +2.08%) all had all-time high closes. The S&P 500 and Dow Jones Industrial are still below the intraday all-time highs they set on Monday. The RUT closed near its intraday all-time high and is up almost 13% from a bottom on 10/30.
All sectors ended the day with gains. Energy (XLE +3.64%), Real Estate (XLRE +2.29) and Industrials (XLI +2.22%) are the biggest winners of the day. Health (XLV +1.26%), Utilities (XLU +0.99%) and Technology (XLK +0.85%) had gains but lagged the S&P 500.
The VIX volatility index decreased -8.88%.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Bonds, Greenback and Commodities
Treasury Bond yields increased slightly for the day. The 10Y-2Y spread also increased while the 30Y-10Y spread continues to tighten over the past week.
The US dollar (DXY -0.26%) weakened. The Produce Price Index is a bullish indicator for the greenback, but the Consumer Confidence data released from University of Michigan is a bearish signal for the currency.
Gold (GOLD +0.65%) and Silver (SILVER +1.49%) both increased. Timber (WOOD +2.76%) returned from losses yesterday to end the week at a high point.
Crude Oil futures (CRUDEOIL -3.71%) dropped but is still up over 18% since the end of October.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Market Leaders
All four big mega-caps had gains for the day. Only Google (GOOG +1.55%) outperformed the Nasdaq. Apple (AAPL +0.04%) closed nearly even for the day. Microsoft (MSFT +0.50%) and Amazon (AMZN +0.6%) did better but still underperformed the market at open and close and lagged the intraday movement.
Growth stocks continued the mix of gains and losses that have been the hallmark of this week. Fiverr (FVRR +4.97%), JD.COM (JD +6.60%), D.R. Horton (DHI +2.59%) were among stocks that had did well. Zoom (ZM -5.85%) and Peloton (PTON +7.29%) were among the stocks that continued to slide as the potential for a new vaccine could change the growth characteristics for these businesses that benefited from lockdowns.
Draft Kings (DKNG +3.85%) beat expectations and gave a great forecast. It gapped at open but dropped nearly 6% in intraday trading.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Looking ahead
Daly and Clarida, members of the Federal Open Market Committee, will speak on Monday about the economy which usually drops hints about monetary policy.
Tyson Foods (TSN +2.50%) will release earnings on Monday, kicking off a week or consumer and retail earnings releases for next week.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Trends, Support and Resistance
The trend line from the 10/30 bottom has consistently pointed to a new all-time high, as prices moved mostly sideways this week. That would be a +2.38% increase and welcome the index to the group of other indexes trading at all-time highs. Continuing today’s one-day trend line would result in a +0.29% gain.
The five-day trend line is still on a negative slope and pointing to a -1.15% loss for Monday. The longest trend line from the 10/12 pivot day is pointing to a -2.59% loss, right at the 21d EMA.
-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-=x=-
Wrap-up
Friday continued the week of rotations, causing a lot of damage to investors favorite watchlists. Its hard to find setups with good entry points when heavy rotations are occurring. Hopefully next week will bring some more resolution around issues impacting the market and give more indication of direction.
Take care!
