The softer language cannot be due to the FOMC
the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) moved forward with an anticipated 25-basis-point increase in its federal funds rate target on Wednesday. It no longer, however, “anticipates that ongoing increases in the target range will be appropriate in order to attain a stance of monetary policy that is sufficiently restrictive to return inflation to 2 percent over time.” Now, the FOMC “anticipates that some additional policy firming may be appropriate.” In the post-meeting press conference, Chair Powell called attention to the words “some” and “may.”
Why did the FOMC soften its language? It is certainly not because the FOMC has tamed inflation.
Inflation remains high and shows little sign of moderating. The consumer price index (CPI) grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 4.4 percent in February. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is therefore thought to be a better indicator of future inflation, has risen in recent months. In November, core CPI inflation was just 3.7 percent. It increased to 4.8 percent in December, 4.9 percent in January, and 5.4 percent in February. That suggests the Fed still has some work to do on the inflation front.
The softer language cannot be due to the FOMC’s getting its target into the sufficiently restrictive range, either — because it hasn’t. The most recent 25-basis-point hike raises the nominal target range to 4.75 to 5 percent. With core inflation greater than 5 percent, the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate target range is still negative! Despite this, the FOMC left its terminal rate projection for 2023 unchanged at 5.1 percent, which would be consistent with a target range of 5.0 to 5.25.
The FOMC softened its language not because its job is done, but because it expects to get some help from financial markets going forward.
the technical direction still looks uptrend even trading above 1935 to get 2035 and 2075 and stabilizing under 1935 by closing 4h candle will support falling to get 1870
and also it is possible to do a retest till 1935 and then push it up again
so stabilizing above 1977 will touch 2035
pivot price: 1958
resistance price: 2009 & 2035
support price: 1935 & 1897
Why did the FOMC soften its language? It is certainly not because the FOMC has tamed inflation.
Inflation remains high and shows little sign of moderating. The consumer price index (CPI) grew at a continuously compounding annual rate of 4.4 percent in February. Core CPI, which excludes volatile food and energy prices and is therefore thought to be a better indicator of future inflation, has risen in recent months. In November, core CPI inflation was just 3.7 percent. It increased to 4.8 percent in December, 4.9 percent in January, and 5.4 percent in February. That suggests the Fed still has some work to do on the inflation front.
The softer language cannot be due to the FOMC’s getting its target into the sufficiently restrictive range, either — because it hasn’t. The most recent 25-basis-point hike raises the nominal target range to 4.75 to 5 percent. With core inflation greater than 5 percent, the real (inflation-adjusted) interest rate target range is still negative! Despite this, the FOMC left its terminal rate projection for 2023 unchanged at 5.1 percent, which would be consistent with a target range of 5.0 to 5.25.
The FOMC softened its language not because its job is done, but because it expects to get some help from financial markets going forward.
the technical direction still looks uptrend even trading above 1935 to get 2035 and 2075 and stabilizing under 1935 by closing 4h candle will support falling to get 1870
and also it is possible to do a retest till 1935 and then push it up again
so stabilizing above 1977 will touch 2035
pivot price: 1958
resistance price: 2009 & 2035
support price: 1935 & 1897
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