EUR JPY - 1, 2023

G'day and welcome to 2023.

Breakdown:
1. Note
2. Contents
3. Research breakdown
4. Education recap
5. Information on Lupa.

A note before reading - this is a forecast analysis - based upon a long term trading strategy looking for Fresh Demand/Supply zones.
This is tagged short to the overall monthly demand in control, until the opportunity of a rejection of the PCP has occurred or a long opportunity from a break and retest of the trend. Overall, where an imbalance is formed and sellers have completed the changing of hands due to purchasing further increments the exhaustive sellers. Until this criteria is met - no trade is taken until reactive, break or curve is confirmed. Long term investment strategy rated, bearish.

Monthly

• The bigger picture offers a simple and effective view which doesn't need much analysis.
  The main key takeaways are - price has offered a sell setup with a fresh supply as 2014 provided the OL.
  
• Price has now closed with a low of 138.X and can look to this pivot level and beyond for a short term target zone at <133 - 130 before price can show the Demand touch at 124. Subject to the PCP monthly of 130 -133 zone withstanding. do not over look the overall structure all time high of 168.X however, this bullish view is not yet required until the supply has been test and or, the demand zone is well establish with failed attempts.
  

Weekly

• The weekly has highlighted a strong imbalance for sells which took the distal point at 146.X and proximal sell position at 144.7, which had a great opportunity when breaking down the levels of three day and daily chart movements (releasing the hidden departure and retest of the zone to confirm that the supply zone is now forming a strong weekly candle to generate the move for a long term sell.
  
• The candlestick pattern on the weekly is not easy to read as the large weekly wicks are marginally creating a pattern of lower lows while still inside the monthly zone, whilst the short term offers a 'messy zone' - looking left, price has not reached this level of market structure since 2014, hence a strong supply zone is here to last.
  

(Weekly update)


Review here for weekly update:

Daily Chart
This is the original view - after the original sell zone offering a failed retest. The fresh supply using the above weekly and monthly in the top down analysis provided strong sells.

FL level added

• A fresh supply level has been established between 143.5-145.3 zone offering a strong positional selling opportunity.
  
• At present the fresh level of the demand imbalance has been tapped with a reactive buy which took place and aligned with a double bottom on the weekly - however not reacted to the weekly zone of interest. Instead - using the three day chart, the daily zone still confirms the confidence of a reactive buy. This also aligns with USD JPY with the JPY basket offering a new opportunity for a short term offer for buys for a daily hold or up to a week?
  
• The arrival of the sells from 147 to 145.7 has now offered a fresh zone and provided a 500-700 pip to obtain buys and sells.
  

USD JPY trade is still active - review the 2022 Nov, Dec analysis for looking back.
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• Professional analyst with 5+ years experience in the capital markets
  
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LVPA MMXXIII