ETHUSD: Broader Wave Count Still Bullish. 600 Break Is Key.

ETHUSD update: When the day to day momentum dries up as is the case with these coins, it is always helpful to zoom out. This is where Elliott Wave offers a lot of value because it shows us where we are on the bigger picture map, and most likely where this market is going.

People give Elliott Wave a hard time because they expect precision and that is not what it offers. Instead it provides a sense of location. It helps to answer "where are we?". And what needs to happen in order to make some sort of progress?

In the case of ETH, if the current structure bottoms out and establishes a Primary Wave 2, it will be setting up for a Primary Wave 3 of Cycle Wave 3. Basic rules of an impulse dictate that Wave 3 is never the shortest wave. Also Wave 3's and 5's have a tendency to extend. This all means there is a lot of bullish potential baked into these markets over the long term.

In order for this broad scenario to begin to confirm, the 598 resistance (.382 of recent bearish structure relative to the 828 high) needs to be taken out. In other words, once the 600 psychological area is cleared, this market will more than likely be in a subwave 1 of the Primary Wave 3.

If this market continues lower, it can go as low as the 380s and still be within the rule that says Wave 2 does not go below the start of Wave 1. This is why Wave 2's and Wave 4's are so tricky, especially at their extremes.

In summary, as we have been writing on S.C. about how quiet markets call for preparation. Do not force trades, instead define scenarios and be prepared if the market aligns, or if it doesn't. We are not here to predict, only trade probabilities and manage risk. No indicators are required to accomplish this, but a decision making process is.

Elliott Wave is an effective analytical framework to use especially for long term perspective. It does not make any promises, but it does provide a road map to compare scenarios against. Take advantage of this quiet time in the market and learn the basics. It is a big first step in developing your own perspective and that is more valuable than any ideas you get from an "expert".