ETHUSD: Pin Bar Establishes New Support For Longs?

10 mar 2018

ETHUSD update: Recent pin bar formation establishes a higher low relative to the 565 low. Simultaneously price has also rejected the 670 extreme support boundary which is also now in line with the new converging bullish trend line. Observe the structure on the bigger picture and what do you see? A broad triangle which can be labelled as a large magnitude Wave 2.

Just like in BTC, the immediate action in this market has been bearish. Smaller time frames will certainly blind you to what is happening where it matters more and that is on the big picture. This minor sell off has done nothing more than push price deeper into a supportive area. The 713 to 520 zone is the .618 area of the entire bullish structure originating from the sub 300 lows. If this market is going to mount a broad reversal and transition back to a more bullish environment, this area is the most probable location for it to begin.

IF price closes above the 830 level, that would confirm the bearish trend line break, and will signal the possibility of the first leg of a larger magnitude Wave 3. Positioning for a move like this requires a plan for entries, adjustments and sizing which you must have figured out ahead of time.

The bullish pin bar that has appeared is one sign of the beginning of a reversal. It does not guarantee that a reversal is necessarily in play. What if the next candle closes lower? What if the newly established bullish trend line is taken out? Bearish momentum can lead price to extreme lows such as the 520 support zone boundary or the 491 extreme support boundary. IF the market chooses this more bearish scenario, I will be looking to buy into that extreme weakness.

In summary, buying a fundamentally strong market is not as simple as buying any pull back. As you can see, since the peak in January, this market has retraced more than 50%. Even though recent lows are attractive buy points, they do not guarantee the best prices. The key to remember is this: there are no "best prices", it is always about what you are willing to risk, and then waiting for the market to provide a scenario where that risk is within range. Are you willing to buy at 1400 and sit through a 50% pull back? (high risk) Or are you willing to wait for a more reasonable price area (50% off the peak) to start building a position? By the time the new bullish leg is in progress, the opportunities that exist at the moment, or leading up to the break out will no longer be available. The goal of this report is to provide perspective, and an idea of what an opportunity looks like. As far as specific trades, they will be available to those who know where to look.

Questions and comments welcome. (PM for fastest response).