#ES_F Day Trading Prep Week 5.28 - 5.31

28 may

Last Week :

Last week Market opened over VAH and spent all week building Supply over it, as discussed in Sunday Prep since we were at ATH with no over hang we needed to wait for Supply to build up for any meaningful back fill of previous areas and that 5341 - 5290 might be our Range where price will want to stay around and keep returning into for some time while it builds that Supply.

On Thursday we ended up pushing inside the Edge but failed to find acceptance in it and the push back out gave us the flush of the inventory filling the buyers into the Value, even with how strong the move looked with break/hold under Key Support on Friday Globex failed to hold under it and we found our way back inside 5341 - 5290 Range where we were able to push back into the Means for the Range where we closed the week in VAH.

This Week :

Few things this week, we have Month End, Settlement changes from T2 to T1 which we don't know just yet how that will impact the trading and we had Holiday yesterday which pushed us over VAH and we are again building up Supply over it. For now we are inside T2 Range which was Thursday I believe the change goes in effect Today or this week, we are right around Previous Days Range and 5341 - 36 already showed us this morning that it's acting properly as good Resistance.

So far going into this week Thursdays flush showed us that don't have stronger buyers up here just yet who want to keep paying over Value and keep pushing us into new range above and that even with strong flush we didn't have enough Supply to accept under 5295 - 90 to continue filling more buyers into VAL.
This tells me again that market may want to stay in this 5341 - 5290 Intraday Range and balance around it, we have to be ready to spend quite a bit of time in these areas and trade around them until market will show us clear acceptance and intensions of moving Ranges and that can take some time because we are in a Key Spot on higher time frames we are at tops of Daily/Weekly Balances without finding acceptance above and without having the Supply just yet to move under the Middle of those balances which is around the 5290-80s area.

Plan is to continue trading 5341 - 5290 Range level to level just like last week with moves out of its 5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means and then returns back towards/inside them. Failures to accept over 5341 - 36 will likely find their way back to/under 24.75 - 20.75, pushes under 5310.50 - 06.50 could also be absorbed under and find their way back to/over 10.50 - 06.50 and inside the Means we could balance. We are in lower volume times so also have to give time for the moves to properly set up and be ready to correct back.

Levels to watch :
Current Range 5341 - 5290.25
5341 - 36 Key Resistance
5324.75 - 20.75 // 5310.50 - 06.50 Means for the Range
5295.50 - 90.25 Key Support

If Accept over 5341 - 36 next Range 5386.50 - 5336
5356 - 52 // 5370.50 - 66.50 Means and Edge Top
5386.50 - 81.50 Key Resistance

If Accept under 5295.50 - 90.25 lower Range 5295.50 - 5244.75
5279.25 - 75.25 // 5264.75 - 60.75 Means and VAL
5249.75 - 44.75 Key Support

29 may

Comentarios

So far yesterday we got a failure at Key Resistance over VAH with inventory being taken back to and under VAH which was bought back up to VAH with a push back above but the 5pm close ended up being under VAH top of 5324.75 inside our current intraday ranges means.
Globex opened and once it broke back under 20.75 it continued leaking all night down to 5310.50 - 06.50 and then through it and continued to Key Support.
This is the area we watch again because IF the buying here is not strong enough to take in all the Supply that is coming out and give us a correction back towards/over 5310.50 - 06.50 Mean and we just hang out and consolidate around this Key Support and 5300s area without going back into the Means above then there is a chance to build up enough Supply to eventually take out 5295.50 - 90.25 Support and IF we do we can continue leaking lower towards VAL , this would put us in 5295.50 - 5244.75 Intraday range which would target the Means into 5279.25 - 75.25 and 5264.75 - 60.75 area and if we will have enough juice a push outside the Means towards next Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75.
As we have been noting from last week this VAL area is where size shorts are trapped under and more buyers are waiting for Supply so if we have it we will take it there but we need a build up here and then show that we are ready to take out 95-90.
We would need to hold this Support area and get back over 5306.50 - 10.50 to regain stability IF we can't get back over then we should see either balance between 5310 and Key Support or continuation lower once we are ready.

29 may

Comentarios

First target at 79.25 hit BUT careful if we can't stay under 95.50 - 90.25 we could rotate back towards VAH into 5310.50 - 06.50 area. Would need to stay under 95-90 and later see a break of 79 - 75 mean area to see continuation towards VAL. If selling runs out we rotate

29 may

Comentarios

In case VAL Range doesn't hold and we will have more selling to get under next Key Support, we would look at possible pushes towards lower Edge and that would put us in 5249.75 - 5199.75 Range, levels for it are 5234.25 - 30.25 // 5219.75 - 5215.75 Means, 5204.25 - 5199.75 Key Support and also Edge low area would be big location. If there is enough short covering in these areas then we could stay up and start balancing in the Means of this 5295.50 - 5244.75 Range and we still have 5264.75 - 60.75 and possible push under as targets to visit UNLESS we can get back over 5279.25 - 75.25 AND get back over 5290.25 - 95.50 that would bring back stability, otherwise we will look to continue building up and leaking lower to fill the buyers into VAL and either balance around there or continue towards lower Edge. As we saw today things can be messy and take a while to set up, some areas taking 2-3+ hours to properly set up for good moves, really need to be patient or be able to manage early entries with quick profit and exits when wrong.

30 may

Comentarios

Globex opened and continued to lower targets, we hit VAL got through 5264.75 - 60.75 current ranges mean area and flushed down towards Key Support where we found buying just above it. Currently we pulled back into the Mean area and our VAL top, we knew coming into this area that this is where Size was trapped and it could be acting as Support, one thing to note that even if its Support it doesn't mean we should expect big bounces from this area because Supply is still coming out and we are now in more of a downtrend, we get big bounces when we have limited supply, this time its different in my opinion.
Going into today we have some data at 830 and 10 so we have to see if it will shake things up or what will it do but something to watch for is that the Support here is from short covering and if they see more supply coming in then they will back off their bids and let this thing come down more. If we wont have more size coming out then we could spend time today balancing around this VAL area but for that we would need to get through this 64.75 - 60.75 area be able to tag 79.25 - 75.25 Upper mean then we could say alright this area is holding and we can potentially trade balance in the current Means BUT if we can't tag upper Mean or tag and can't hold above 64.75 - 60.75 then we can still see a visit down into Key Support at 5249.75 - 44.75 which could break with size and give continuation towards the Edge into 5230s area, Level to watch for lower range are listed above if that happens. If we end up just holding in this 5295.50 - 5244.75 then we need to watch for us to build up under 64.75 and then see if we can take it out to head for above Mean and possibly balance between 80 - 60s area but we have to remember Supply is trapped over 5279.25 - 75.25 and either way it goes if we can't hold over 64.75 today in RTH then we could still see a visit to at least lower Key Support

31 may

Comentarios

We are now under VAL, more longs trapped in Value and we are inside 5249.75 - 5199.75 Range. This is the area to be careful at because few things are happening here, we have different sets of buyers and sellers active as we are under Value and close to Key Edge for HTF. We have previous trapped size shorts in these areas who have been waiting for Supply to come back to them who are buying, we have shorts from Value and above who are covering here, we have our bigger Cost Basis around the Edge which is providing Support and on the other hand we have lots of Supply which we created inside Value and above now coming out, new shorts selling to try and push lower and smaller size longs who are buying for a bounce getting trapped and then selling out again. This creates the back and forth tight action we are getting because everyone transacting trying to capture the volume that we have. Holding under VAL we can still target the Edge tag maybe push into it but we have to be careful today as its Friday last day of the Month and everyone expecting either a bounce or continuation lower at this point, but yesterday trapped more buyers at VAL and we have good covering here keeping us up so really we don't need to do either while that is happening on both ends, we already tagged first target down here at 5234.25 - 30.25 IF we can build some more Supply and get through we can watch for a tag of 27 and IF we have enough Supply to see if we can reach next target at 5219.75 - 5215.75 IF we do then we might then this could be the spot for market to just balance above between that and 27 - 30.25 - 34.25 areas, last few days it would take all day to build up the Supply then flush it end of day, if we do get the flush under 34-30 today then it might happen earlier and then go to chop mode rest of the day instead since we already have the Supply from yesterday and Globex that we could use to flush and IF we wont have the Supply for that then we could also continue balancing all day between 5230s and this Key area of 5249.75 - 44.75 with maaaaybe pushes into VAL bottom at 52 but careful with looking for anything big to the upside or downside today unless market shows for us to have any strength we would need to accept over Key Resistance and be able to hold over to have a chance higher and for bigger flush we would need either strong volume through 27-19 areas or Supply build up above it which for now we dont have. Inventory corrections have been 4-6 +/- points so really have to have good entries and be quick with reason to exit to capture those moves, small moves add up if done properly.

31 may

Comentarios

Data pushed us back into Value back inside 5295.50 - 5244.75 Range, this looks strong but we must remember we are still inside Previous Days Range and have Supply trapped over 80-90s, pushes out of 79.25 - 75.25 if we get enough buying to push us over them could find way back inside unless we have enough buying to accept over next Key area and if we can't see much action over 79.25 - 75.25 then we could get potential balance in this 80 - 60 +/- area between this ranges means and can trade rotations within while we clean up on last day of the Month. For any further selling or upside we would need to be able to hold over/under the Means and get through Key areas.

31 may

Comentarios

I wouldn't put too much trust in this 19.75 - 15.75 area, if we get through we should see next Key Support or at least Edge bottom tested at 07 and if enough Volume a push under.