12/19 Trading Plan - Today's Recap and Wednesday Trading Plan

20 dic 2023

📊 Market Sentiment: Sustained Bullish Sentiment

The market has recently demonstrated a notable positive trend, marked by nine consecutive days of gains. This upward movement might align with the phenomenon known as a "Santa Rally," traditionally observed in the stock market towards the end of December and the beginning of January. Typically, this rally is attributed to increased holiday spending, year-end investor optimism, and portfolio adjustments for the new year. However, it's important to maintain a disciplined approach to trading, focusing on specific levels and indicators rather than relying solely on seasonal sentiment.

🌏 Major Global Catalysts

• Political Landscape: Trump's 2024 ballot status is in limbo due to Colorado Supreme Court's ruling.
  
• Economic Movements: The dollar's struggle amid rate cut expectations, yen's weakening, and global stock market responses.
  
• Gold Market: Prices rise as the dollar and yields ease.
  
• Regulatory Actions: Swiss and ECB's new measures post Credit Suisse collapse.
  
• Southeast Asia's Tech Scene: Advised to find sustainable profitability amid funding challenges.
  

📷 Snapshot

Daily Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: Indicating a bullish sentiment with closing prices comfortably above these EMAs.
  
• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
  

4-Hour Data Sentiment Analysis:

• EMA 9, 21, 55: Also showing a bullish trend.
  
• Overall Sentiment: Bullish.
  

📉 Support Levels

• Major: 4810, 4806, 4794, 4788, 4781-78, 4772, 4766, 4760, 4753, 4747, 4737, 4734-30, 4719, 4708-10, 4702, 4698, 4692, 4680-78, 4673, 4662-65, 4658, 4650-52, 4647, 4634, 4630, 4624, 4618, 4606.
  
• Minor: 4764, 4724-26, 4717, 4700, 4690, 4684, 4678, 4674, 4670.
  

📈 Resistance Levels

• Major: 4815, 4822, 4826-28, 4836-38, 4851, 4860, 4869, 4877, 4883, 4893, 4902, 4906, 4912, 4918, 4925, 4933, 4946, 4953, 4964, 4977, 4990, 4995, 5005.
  

📝 Trading Plan

Bull Case Analysis:

• Current Sentiment: The market maintains a bullish stance with the ES (S&P 500 futures) showcasing nine consecutive green days, indicating a strong upward momentum.
  
• Recent Performance: The bullish run has been robust, with the market consistently closing at daily highs, underlining the strength of the current trend.
  
• Key Strategy: The focus is on waiting for price discovery. Important to monitor key support levels, particularly 4810 and 4794, for potential entry points.
  
• Upside Targets: If support holds, especially at 4810 and 4794, the market is poised to test higher levels at 4825-27, then potentially extend gains towards 4838 and 4860.
  
• Risk Consideration: While the bullish sentiment prevails, traders should remain alert for any sudden shifts in market dynamics.
  

Bear Case Analysis:

• Market Vulnerability: Despite the strong bullish trend, there is a risk of the market transitioning to a "sell bounces" regime, especially if the ES fails to sustain its momentum.
  
• Critical Levels: Watch for any breaks below key supports, especially 4810, 4794, and 4778-81. A decline below these levels could signal a shift in market sentiment.
  
• Short Entry Points: Should the market show weakness, particularly below the 4810 and 4794 levels, short positions could be considered, with a focus on disciplined trading and risk management.
  
• Downside Targets: In a bearish scenario, subsequent support levels like 4781-78, 4772, and lower may come into play, offering potential profit-taking points for short positions.
  
• Overall Outlook: While the current sentiment is bullish, traders should be prepared for a potential reversal and adjust their strategies accordingly.
  

Tomorrow’s Outlook:

• Bullish Trend Continuation: The market is expected to maintain its bullish momentum, following nine consecutive green days in the ES (S&P 500 futures).
  
• Key Levels to Watch: Critical support levels at 4810 and 4794 will be in focus. Their resilience or breach could dictate market direction.
  
• Resistance Testing: If bullish sentiment persists, watch for a potential push towards higher resistance levels, especially around 4825-27, leading up to 4838 and 4860.
  
• Risk Awareness: Despite the ongoing bullish trend, traders should stay vigilant for any sudden shifts, considering the recent extended run.
  
• Strategy Adaptability: Be prepared to adjust strategies in response to market reactions at these pivotal levels, especially if the market shows signs of reversing its current trend.
  

Disclosure: This is not financial advice and is for informational purposes only. Please consult a professional financial advisor before making any investment decision.