If you view my other post, you will notice my thoughts on Bitcoin and my rationale as to why I feel the market is uncertain at the moment. Nonetheless, I also noted the area from a weekly chart as to what to monitor to add further confirmation that BTC is really bullish and not just rallying higher due to short term / intra-day volatility.
The weekly imbalance (learned from ICT on Youtube) noted in orange will offer a more clearer depiction as to where price can go over a longer term horizon - which is what I think is important if you are an investor rather than a trader. If price trades on the weekly and/or daily above the weekly imbalance on a 'closing basis' (not wicks) then this will likely indicate that BTC may want to push higher. On the opposite view to this, as we are seeing; BTC has traded right up to the weekly imbalance low and is closing on the daily chart beneath the imbalance. If price remains below the imbalance, we can expect the likelihood of a lower BTC price.
What I think can happen now?
1) It's still uncertain given the war and me not knowing exactly how this impacts BTC (I'll have to do further fundamental research).
2) The technicals are clear, offering an if this then that type of environment. Given the current market structure, BTC could consolidate here to collect orders and then distribute lower attacking the sell-side liquidity from buyers.
3) For a more short view, keep an eye on the 4-hour chart market structure and see what happens. Ideally, it's best if price begins to push lower now - using the run-up to trick buyers in the market :)
Happy Trading - Use Risk Management To Make It Through The Storm
Be ok with being wrong - You are investing/trading NOT GAMBLING.
Focus on your approach, rules & discipline rather than being greedy.
-Maradona Capital
The weekly imbalance (learned from ICT on Youtube) noted in orange will offer a more clearer depiction as to where price can go over a longer term horizon - which is what I think is important if you are an investor rather than a trader. If price trades on the weekly and/or daily above the weekly imbalance on a 'closing basis' (not wicks) then this will likely indicate that BTC may want to push higher. On the opposite view to this, as we are seeing; BTC has traded right up to the weekly imbalance low and is closing on the daily chart beneath the imbalance. If price remains below the imbalance, we can expect the likelihood of a lower BTC price.
What I think can happen now?
1) It's still uncertain given the war and me not knowing exactly how this impacts BTC (I'll have to do further fundamental research).
2) The technicals are clear, offering an if this then that type of environment. Given the current market structure, BTC could consolidate here to collect orders and then distribute lower attacking the sell-side liquidity from buyers.
3) For a more short view, keep an eye on the 4-hour chart market structure and see what happens. Ideally, it's best if price begins to push lower now - using the run-up to trick buyers in the market :)
Happy Trading - Use Risk Management To Make It Through The Storm
Be ok with being wrong - You are investing/trading NOT GAMBLING.
Focus on your approach, rules & discipline rather than being greedy.
-Maradona Capital
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Update: If we trade below the down close candles (black bearish candle) expect lower prices and a heavy indication that price wants to trade lower.