BTC/USD Weekly Analysis Update - Bear Correction Incoming?
BTC/USD has broken out of the $25,000 and $33,000 trading range, reaching $35,000 and nearing the top of the bull channel. Does this mean the next bull run has begun? Unlikely. I believe we are missing a few key events before we see a bull run to the next all-time high.
BTC has yet to touch lifetime support as it has the last 2 out of 3 bull runs to new all-time highs. In August 2015 and March 2020, the price action touched lifetime support in a final capitulation before hitting new highs. The only exception was the 2011-2013 bull run.
We have also not had the March/April 2024 BTC halving, which has happened prior to every bull run to new all-time highs. The weekly RSI is also near overbought levels, and while that is a weak indicator on its own, it supports these data that indicate we need more downside before the next bull run.
The #1 signal in my analysis is the contact with lifetime support. If contact happens within months of the BTC halving, the price would be around $21,000. Contact with lifetime and support and the BTC halving event would be the ultimate bull signal in this Weekly analysis.
On the Weekly chart, I would wait for the price to fall below $25,000 before buying more BTC. We do not yet have a short signal or confirmation of a failed breakout, so it would be wise to wait before entering a short. The shorter timeframes are another story, an additional analysis I will post soon zooming into the hourly candles.
As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
BTC has yet to touch lifetime support as it has the last 2 out of 3 bull runs to new all-time highs. In August 2015 and March 2020, the price action touched lifetime support in a final capitulation before hitting new highs. The only exception was the 2011-2013 bull run.
We have also not had the March/April 2024 BTC halving, which has happened prior to every bull run to new all-time highs. The weekly RSI is also near overbought levels, and while that is a weak indicator on its own, it supports these data that indicate we need more downside before the next bull run.
The #1 signal in my analysis is the contact with lifetime support. If contact happens within months of the BTC halving, the price would be around $21,000. Contact with lifetime and support and the BTC halving event would be the ultimate bull signal in this Weekly analysis.
On the Weekly chart, I would wait for the price to fall below $25,000 before buying more BTC. We do not yet have a short signal or confirmation of a failed breakout, so it would be wise to wait before entering a short. The shorter timeframes are another story, an additional analysis I will post soon zooming into the hourly candles.
As always, trade at your own risk, you are responsible for your trades. I hope this analysis was insightful and useful.
Trade wisely and let us know what you think in the comment section below!
-Joe Dean
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