Bitcoin Trying to make a Daily Reversal after Bear trap? Part 2
Actualizado
Not much has changed, volume is dropping, which is not great but is also normal if this is a real bull flag. We do want to see a breakout upwards soon though. I do not want to see it take another 24 hours or so, because than i might be distribution again.
Just a few min ago there was an attempt to break up, but the volume was to low so it is getting rejected so far. If this break up happens, we really need to see a very big volume increase happen. As mentioned in the previous analysis, if this is the start of a new rally (Wave C of the ABC correction up from 3200), the next wave should be a big one. Meaning a rally to like 3900/4000 with very high volume.
Another option is, that the current wave up is just a new small ABC correctional wave, (probably) meaning, we make a small drop towards 3500ish and go up again to like 3700 before continuing the bear trend again.
A third option (less likely at this moment), is this move up was just a shake out and we simply drop from here on out. Because of that small bear trap move yesterday, i don't think this option is likely to happen. Unless we move sideways for another day or 2.
Only concrete thing i can say now is, that we have to stay above the green zone on the right, but actually even above today's low. The red zone on the right has to break, ideally within a few hours, but i think a max of 12 hours. Unless we see a very good and stable bull flag form on the higher time frame.
So depending on if we see a break up and HOW it will go, we can make a much better judgement call on what the direction of the coming weeks will be. At the current stage, it's still guessing. Also because alts are not showing any real signs. I am not seeing any good moves up on that side. So either the market is still bearish or everyone is simply waiting for what the next step will be. So anything above 3550ish, keeps the bullish version intact. Below that level it could mean the small ABC is in play or the very bearish version.
About the wedge on the left, there is still room for a test of lower levels. I am looking at this pattern, when ignoring all of the above. If the wedge is real, we should not see a straight dump to the low of the wedge (around 3350). Any different movement (smaller/slower drops) keeps the wedge alive.
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Previous analysis:
Just a few min ago there was an attempt to break up, but the volume was to low so it is getting rejected so far. If this break up happens, we really need to see a very big volume increase happen. As mentioned in the previous analysis, if this is the start of a new rally (Wave C of the ABC correction up from 3200), the next wave should be a big one. Meaning a rally to like 3900/4000 with very high volume.
Another option is, that the current wave up is just a new small ABC correctional wave, (probably) meaning, we make a small drop towards 3500ish and go up again to like 3700 before continuing the bear trend again.
A third option (less likely at this moment), is this move up was just a shake out and we simply drop from here on out. Because of that small bear trap move yesterday, i don't think this option is likely to happen. Unless we move sideways for another day or 2.
Only concrete thing i can say now is, that we have to stay above the green zone on the right, but actually even above today's low. The red zone on the right has to break, ideally within a few hours, but i think a max of 12 hours. Unless we see a very good and stable bull flag form on the higher time frame.
So depending on if we see a break up and HOW it will go, we can make a much better judgement call on what the direction of the coming weeks will be. At the current stage, it's still guessing. Also because alts are not showing any real signs. I am not seeing any good moves up on that side. So either the market is still bearish or everyone is simply waiting for what the next step will be. So anything above 3550ish, keeps the bullish version intact. Below that level it could mean the small ABC is in play or the very bearish version.
About the wedge on the left, there is still room for a test of lower levels. I am looking at this pattern, when ignoring all of the above. If the wedge is real, we should not see a straight dump to the low of the wedge (around 3350). Any different movement (smaller/slower drops) keeps the wedge alive.
Please don't forget to like if you appreciate this :)
Previous analysis:
Nota
Crap, sorry wrong link.Nota
They removed my complete update, after notifying them that i posted a wrong link by accident, wrote the whole story again and miss clicked, so now for the third time, but keeping it short. The 3570 was a resistance, dropped a bit but just a small one. ETH made a lower low, but also a small drop. Both are at that 3570 resistance now. If that breaks, we could see another attempt to move up again.
There was an 8 and 6 mil buy order since yesterday around 3550, which (as far as i know) got moved or anything. They just sat there like they knew the price would come back down to fill their orders. I just don't know if it was a buy order or a short closing.
Within a minute or 2 after i posted this new analysis, there was a small attempt to break, but it got Barted down again (pushed down) just as fast and with even more volume. Usually we see more downward movement happen if the intention was to dump the price, so at the moment don't know if it was noise, or that it will still happen.
Nota
Looking very weak at the moment, eth is even worse. But the very bullish version is off the table, we could still see an ABC forming, meaning going up again from like 3500/470 and up again to 3650 before dropping. So general direction for the coming week, is more likely down. We had good volume yesterday, so i took the attempt serious, but the Bart move has the the upper hand once again. Never got above the 3570. So that is the first level to breakJust the OI on Bitmex is still very high, at 405, but it could be used as fuel to dump the price.
Nota
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