Happy 4/20! Woke up to an encouraging green breakout candle.
We see some very encouraging signs on the 4hr and 1 day chart this morning...we had a nice bullish impulse on the last 4hr candle which shot us upward out of the bullflag all the way to the $8500 region. This surpassed the 50day MA on the 1 day chart....we have now formed a small head and shoulders pattern on the 5 minute chart however which will only be able to take us down to 8400 on its own...having that head and shoulder pattern push us back into the bull flag is unlikely however because the 4hr t line(in yellow) is blocking the entrance back into the bull flag...It's the bouncer to Club Bullflag and no more red candles are allowed in...not only that but it's also being backed up by the 1 day charts 50MA(not shown here on the 4hr chart). The 50ma on the 1 day chart is essentially overlapping the top trendline of the bullflag which simply double reinforces both of their support capabilities....and the 4hr tline is just barely below them in a way that it is pretty much a triple reinforced support line. So yeah both the 1day 50MA and the 4hr T line are the bouncers at the entrance to Club Bullflag and no red candles are allowed haha. So probability is quite good we can close another 4hr confirmation candle above the bull flag. From there we want to see a big volume impulse to drive home the confirmation..sometimes on the 4hr chart we need 3 candle closes above to confirm before the volume kicks in but usually only 2 candles. Once we do we will be heading for the top of the vertical green dotted price target line. Which,if you remember way back at the beginning of the month when we broke upward out of the falling wedge, we still have yet to reach the target of that breakout of the 9400s (purple dotted trendline) so odds are very good we will confirm this bull flag breakout..we will finally hit the falling wedge breakouts target and then our enxt stop will likely be the bullish breakout target of the current bullflag with potentially a sideways consolidation stop or 2 along the way. On the bigger picture of the weekly timeframe, I have drawn with lavender trendlines the massive descending triangle pattern that we formed ever since the all time high in december… & we're finally reaching the apex of that pattern. in fact, we've currently broken above that weekly triangle pattern & will close the current weekly candle above it by this sunday night as long as we don't dip back below 7400 which is a low probability. Currently, beyond the mostly insignificant 5minute timelines head & shoulder breakdown, the bigger reason we are seeing a little redness in the current candle is that we have hit the weekly charts T line which is currently resistance. I've a feeling once we confirm the breakout of this bull flag with 3 4hr closes above it, we'll get enough of a bullish volume boost to surpass the weekly timeframes Tline. If we can overcome the weekly charts Tline & flip it from resistance to support, then I'm highly confident we'll confirm a breakout from the weekly descending triangle. Once we do the breakout target of that is massive & around 18800. If this happens then my original hypothesis way back when we originally got the huge volume spike in february of potentially seeing a new all time high by May 7th-9th will be very possible. I think we will see a new all time high sometime between May - early July. However, the reason I think May 7th-9th could be a possible date is simply because of the fractal nature of the current pattern w/ the pattern that occured on september 15th of last year…it took exactly 3 months(december 15th) to reach our all time high after the adam & eve/huge volume spike of September 15th…so if history were to repeat itself exactly, that would mean that we could essentially find ourselves reaching a new all time high 3 months from the date of our new huge bullish volume spike which happened on february 7th which would make May 7th 3 months later…or May 9th if you consider feb has 2 days less than September.
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I'm guessing once we hit the bullflags breakout target of $9936 we may find some solid psychological resistance at 10,000 for a day or 2...if that happens its better to just buy the dips instead of trying to get lucky shorting any of your position(even fractional amounts) because I doubt 10,000 will hold resistance for long...we will be very close to breaking the neckline of the adam & eve double bottom at that point and will still have plenty of bullish momentum from the breakout of the 1 week charts descending triangle pattern.
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I will do a chart that shows the weekly time frame and the fdescending triangle pattern better and post the link here as well.
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here is the weekly look:
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one last thing to mention is that we are now finally back above the 1day 50MA if we can close 5 1 day candles above the 1 day 50MA (which is also the buy sell line) We will be fully back in a buyers market and also the bulls will finally have control...from there it is smartest to buy the dips rather than short any of your position. Lastly, I pointed out the 4hr charts golden cross recently and a bunch of traders int he chat tried to say it was insignificant but ever since the golden cross occured the price action has only been moving upward. So if that's indicative of anything, that emans once we finally get a golden cross to occur on the 1 day chart, the upside should be huge.
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An important more fundamental thing to note. Apparently there was a rumor going around that Binance was going to announce fiat pairs very soon. That rumor was then was marketed in the news as "FAKE NEWS" and then debunked as nothing more than rumor. This rumor/news is probably contributing on some small psychological level with buyers sentiment. So if you do see any sudden downtrend occur in a form of retracement It could be because of the recent spike being the herd buying the rumor, and then selling the news once the rumor was proven untrue. Its funny how this type of reporting occurs both in a bull run or a bear run. In a bull run the rumor often will be super positive and FOMO-inducing causing a bullish candle spike....and then the follow up news will debunk it , letting people down, causing some deflation of buyer sentiment, & often a bull trap....in a Bear Run, the rumors will often be negative & FUD-inducing, causing a dip.....and then the followup news will debunk it, giving people hopium, and stoping the bearish momentum possibly even causing a trend reversalt to the upside. SO keep a close eye on the tlines of the 1hr,4hr,1day, and 1 week. We currently have support on all but the 1 week. We will be looking for the price action to find a way above the weekly t line and to flip it to support as well...if it instead starts breaking under the 1hr, 4hr and 1 day and starts flipping any of those to resistance be prepared to short and for a retracement....if that somehow occurs I don't expect it to be a big retracement but we now have reached a higher high on the 4hr chart and that was preceded by 3 higher lows and 2 higher highs...that gives us the magic number of 3 higher highs and 3 higher lows...33 is a sacred number perhaps we will see a continued serious of higher lows and higher highs...I anticipate if a retracement would occur from the fake rumor/debunking news it would only create another higher low. and since the beginning of this uptrend around april 12th, we've really only had ups and sideways consolidation on the 4hr...meaning for us to achieve a lower low we would have to fall to 6600 or so which is highly improbable...not impossible but highly improbable.
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we are currently forming more sideways consolidation and forming another bull flag now on the 4hr chart...now that we've reached a higher high there's a higher probability of a bull flag breaking down eventually to get another higher low...however this one could still easily continue to break upward and probability still sides with it breaking upward, just a little higher probability than before now that we have hit the higher high that whenever a retracement occurs we could break down....so continue to keep your eye on RSI, Stoch RSi, and MACD on the 1hr,4hr,and 1day for overbought levels, and any sell signals or bearish divergences.