GOLD – Quick Technical Outlook 11/07/2025Gold is at a critical support level within a larger volatility squeeze.
Short-term, a bounce is slightly more probable unless 4.045k fails.
Mid-term, the structure still favors an eventual bullish breakout, but a deeper liquidity sweep is possible if the channel breaks.
The market is basically choosing its next leg right here.
🔍 Current Market Structure
Gold made a huge vertical run, then corrected sharply.
Since then, it has printed lower highs but also higher lows → price is coiling in a triangle.
The rising channel that formed after the correction is still intact, and price is touching the support line.
Bollinger Bands are contracting → volatility squeeze, a precursor to a stronger move.
RSI around 38 indicates weakness but not capitulation; short-term downside is possible but the oscillator isn’t stretched.
In short: the market is neutral-to-bullish within a consolidation, and sitting at a major decision point.
📌 Most Probable Outcome (Base Case)
The confluence of:
rising channel support
lower Bollinger zone
compression inside the triangle
…makes a bounce or sideways reaction the most probable short-term path.
Expected move:
A push back toward 4.15k–4.20k first (mid-channel), with potential continuation to the triangle’s upper boundary if momentum builds.
📅 Mid-Term Outlook (2–4 weeks)
Statistically, symmetrical triangles after a strong uptrend tend to break in the direction of the previous trend — in this case, upward.
Reasons the bullish resolution is slightly favored:
Structure still shows higher lows → buyers defending earlier.
Volatility is tightening → energy building.
No major breakdown signals yet.
If bulls take control, the roadmap is:
Break above the descending trendline.
Retest the last swing high.
Attempt a move back toward the previous top.
⚠️ Bearish Alternative (Less Likely but Very Real)
If the rising channel fails, and gold loses the horizontal level around
4.045k, the short-term bounce scenario dies.
In that case, the market likely searches for liquidity lower:
Targets:
3.95–3.90k (minor support)
3.90–3.65k (major demand zone from your larger blue region)
This would be a classic “flush” to reset RSI and liquidity before a longer-term continuation.
🚨 Key Levels to Watch
Bullish invalidation:
Strong 2H close below 4.045k and channel support.
Bullish confirmation:
Break and close above the triangle’s descending resistance and above the recent lower high.
