Z-Score Regression Bands [BOSWaves]Z-Score Regression Bands – Adaptive Trend and Volatility Insight
Overview
The Z-Score Regression Bands is a trend and volatility analysis framework designed to give traders a clear, structured view of price behavior. It combines Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) regression, a statistical method to detect underlying trends, with Z-Score standardization, which measures how far price deviates from its recent average.
Traditional moving average bands, like Bollinger Bands, often lag behind trends or generate false signals in noisy markets. Z-Score Regression Bands addresses these limitations by:
Tracking trends accurately using LSMA regression
Normalizing deviations with Z-Scores to identify statistically significant price extremes
Visualizing multiple bands for normal, strong, and extreme moves
Highlighting trend shifts using diamond markers based on Z-Score crossings
This multi-layered approach allows traders to understand trend strength, detect overextensions, and identify periods of low or high volatility — all from a single, clear chart overlay. It is designed for traders of all levels and can be applied across scalping, day trading, swing trading, and longer-term strategies.
Theoretical Foundation
The Z-Score Regression Bands are grounded in statistical and trend analysis principles. Here’s the idea in plain terms:
Least Squares Moving Average (LSMA) – Unlike standard moving averages, LSMA fits a straight line to recent price data using regression. This “best-fit” line shows the underlying trend more precisely and reduces lag, helping traders see trend changes earlier.
Z-Score Standardization – A Z-Score expresses how far the LSMA is from its recent mean in standard deviation units. This shows whether price is unusually high or low, which can indicate potential reversals, pullbacks, or acceleration of a trend.
Multi-Band Structure – The three bands represent: Band #1: Normal range of price fluctuations; Band #2: Significant deviation from the trend; Band #3: Extreme price levels that are statistically rare. The distance between bands dynamically adapts to market volatility, allowing traders to visualize expansions (higher volatility) and contractions (lower volatility).
Trend Signals – When Z-Score crosses zero, diamonds appear on the chart. These markers signal potential trend initiation, continuation, or reversal, offering a simple alert for shifts in market momentum.
How It Works
The indicator calculates and plots several layers of information:
LSMA Regression (Trend Detection)
Computes a line that best fits recent price points.
The LSMA line smooths out minor fluctuations while reflecting the general direction of the market.
Z-Score Calculation (Deviation Measurement)
Standardizes the LSMA relative to its recent average.
Positive Z-Score → LSMA above average, negative → LSMA below average.
Helps identify overbought or oversold conditions relative to the trend.
Multi-Band Construction (Volatility Envelope)
Upper and lower bands are placed at configurable multiples of standard deviation.
Band #1 captures typical price movement, Band #2 signals stronger deviation, Band #3 highlights extreme moves.
Bands expand and contract with volatility, giving an intuitive visual guide to market conditions.
Trend Signals (Diamonds)
Appear when Z-Score crosses zero.
Indicates moments when momentum may shift, helping traders time entries or exits.
Visual Interpretation
Band width = volatility: wide bands indicate strong movement; narrow bands indicate calm periods.
LSMA shows underlying trend direction, while bands show how far price has strayed from that trend.
Interpretation
The Z-Score Regression Bands provide a multi-dimensional view of market behavior:
Trend Analysis – LSMA line slope shows general market direction.
Momentum & Volatility – Z-Score indicates whether the trend is accelerating or losing strength; band width indicates volatility levels.
Price Extremes – Price touching Band #2 or #3 may suggest overextension and potential reversals.
Trend Shifts – Diamonds signal statistically significant changes in momentum.
Cycle Awareness – Standard deviation bands help distinguish normal market fluctuations from extreme events.
By combining these insights, traders can avoid false signals and react to meaningful structural shifts in the market.
Strategy Integration
Trend Following
Enter trades when diamonds indicate momentum aligns with LSMA direction.
Use Band #1 and #2 for stop placement and partial exits.
Breakout Trading
Watch for narrow bands (low volatility) followed by price pushing outside Band #1 or #2.
Confirm with Z-Score movement in the breakout direction.
Mean Reversion/Pullback
If price reaches Band #2 or #3 without continuation, expect a pullback toward LSMA.
Exhaustion & Reversals
Flattening Z-Score near zero while price remains at extreme bands signals trend weakening.
Tighten stops or scale out before a potential reversal.
Multi-Timeframe Confirmation
High timeframe LSMA confirms the main trend.
Lower timeframe bands provide refined entry and exit points.
Technical Implementation
LSMA Regression : Best-fit line minimizes lag and captures trend slope.
Z-Score Standardization : Normalizes deviation to allow consistent interpretation across markets.
Multi-Band Envelope : Three layers for normal, strong, and extreme deviations.
Trend Signals : Automatic diamonds for Z-Score zero-crossings.
Band Fill Options : Optional shading to visualize volatility expansions and contractions.
Optimal Application
Asset Classes:
Forex : Capture breakouts, overextensions, and trend shifts.
Crypto : High-volatility adaptation with adjustable band multipliers.
Stocks/ETFs : Identify trending sectors, reversals, and pullbacks.
Indices/Futures : Track cycles and structural trends.
Timeframes:
Scalping (1–5 min) : Focus on Band #1 and trend signals for fast entries.
Intraday (15m–1h) : Use Bands #1–2 for continuation and breakout trades.
Swing (4h–Daily) : Bands #2–3 capture trend momentum and exhaustion.
Position (Daily–Weekly) : LSMA trend dominates; Bands #3 highlight regime extremes.
Performance Characteristics
Strong Performance:
Trending markets with moderate-to-high volatility
Assets with steady liquidity and identifiable cycles
Weak Performance:
Flat or highly choppy markets
Very short timeframes (<1 min) dominated by noise
Integration Tips
Combine with support/resistance, volume, or order flow analysis for confirmation.
Use bands for stops, targets, or scaling positions.
Apply multi-timeframe analysis: higher timeframe LSMA confirms main trend, lower timeframe bands refine entries.
Disclaimer
The Z-Score Regression Bands is a trading analysis tool, not a guaranteed profit system. Its effectiveness depends on market conditions, parameter selection, and disciplined risk management. Use it as part of a broader trading strategy, not in isolation.
Volatilityindicator
BBKC Combined Channels OverlayBBKC Combined Channels Overlay (Volatility & Mean Reversion)This indicator provides a clean, single-view envelope combining the Bollinger Bands (BB) and Keltner Channels (KC) directly onto your price chart. It is an essential tool for traders operating with Volatility Compression (The Squeeze) and Mean Reversion strategies in fast-moving markets like Futures, High BTC Beta Equities, and Crypto. The goal of this tool is twofold: to visually frame the market's current volatility state and to identify high-probability entry points based on expansion or extreme contraction. How to Use the BBKC Overlay: Spotting the Squeeze (Accumulation Phase):The Squeeze is identified when the Bollinger Bands (BB) contract and fit inside the Keltner Channels (KC).The area is clearly marked with a subtle Orange Background Highlight on the main chart. This is the Accumulation phase, signaling low volatility before a potential large directional move. Trading Mean Reversion: When price pushes aggressively outside the outermost bands (the BB Upper/Lower), it signals an extreme volatility expansion and over-extension. This is a strong setup for mean reversion—a high-probability trade targeting a snap-back towards the central Basis Line (SMA).Customizing for Extreme Compression: For traders looking only for the tightest, highest-probability Squeezes, adjust the following setting: KC Multiplier (ATR): Lower this value from the default of 1.5 down to 1.25 or 1.0. This narrows the KC, forcing the Bollinger Bands to contract even further to trigger the Squeeze signal, thus filtering for only the most minimal volatility. Recommended Synergy: For a complete volatility system, pair this BBKC Combined Channels Overlay (your visualization tool) with the BBKC Squeeze Indicator (the sub-pane momentum histogram).Overlay (Main Chart): Shows where the Squeeze is occurring and identifies mean reversion targets. Squeeze Indicator (Lower Pane): Shows if the Squeeze is active and the directional momentum building up, helping you time the breakout entry for the Manipulation/Distribution phase.
Structural Liquidity Signals [BullByte]Structural Liquidity Signals (SFP, FVG, BOS, AVWAP)
Short description
Detects liquidity sweeps (SFPs) at pivots and PD/W levels, highlights the latest FVG, tracks AVWAP stretch, arms percentile extremes, and triggers after confirmed micro BOS.
Full description
What this tool does
Structural Liquidity Signals shows where price likely tapped liquidity (stop clusters), then waits for structure to actually change before it prints a trigger. It spots:
Liquidity sweeps (SFPs) at recent pivots and at prior day/week highs/lows.
The latest Fair Value Gap (FVG) that often “pulls” price or serves as a reaction zone.
How far price is stretched from two VWAP anchors (one from the latest impulse, one from today’s session), scaled by ATR so it adapts to volatility.
A “percentile” extreme of an internal score. At extremes the script “arms” a setup; it only triggers after a small break of structure (BOS) on a closed bar.
Originality and design rationale, why it’s not “just a mashup”
This is not a mashup for its own sake. It’s a purpose-built flow that links where liquidity is likely to rest with how structure actually changes:
- Liquidity location: We focus on areas where stops commonly cluster—recent pivots and prior day/week highs/lows—then detect sweeps (SFPs) when price wicks beyond and closes back inside.
- Displacement context: We track the last Fair Value Gap (FVG) to account for recent inefficiency that often acts as a magnet or reaction zone.
- Stretch measurement: We anchor VWAP to the latest N-bar impulse and to the Daily session, then normalize stretch by ATR to assess dislocation consistently across assets/timeframes.
- Composite exhaustion: We combine stretch, wick skew, and volume surprise, then bend the result with a tanh transform so extremes are bounded and comparable.
- Dynamic extremes and discipline: Rather than triggering on every sweep, we “arm” at statistical extremes via percent-rank and only fire after a confirmed micro Break of Structure (BOS). This separates “interesting” from “actionable.”
Key concepts
SFP (liquidity sweep): A candle briefly trades beyond a level (where stops sit) and closes back inside. We detect these at:
Pivots (recent swing highs/lows confirmed by “left/right” bars).
Prior Day/Week High/Low (PDH/PDL/PWH/PWL).
FVG (Fair Value Gap): A small 3‑bar gap (bar2 high vs bar1 low, or vice versa). The latest gap often acts like a magnet or reaction zone. We track the most recent Up/Down gap and whether price is inside it.
AVWAP stretch: Distance from an Anchored VWAP divided by ATR (volatility). We use:
Impulse AVWAP: resets on each new N‑bar high/low.
Daily AVWAP: resets each new session.
PR (Percentile Rank): Where the current internal score sits versus its own recent history (0..100). We arm shorts at high PR, longs at low PR.
Micro BOS: A small break of the recent high (for longs) or low (for shorts). This is the “go/no‑go” confirmation.
How the parts work together
Find likely liquidity grabs (SFPs) at pivots and PD/W levels.
Add context from the latest FVG and AVWAP stretch (how far price is from “fair”).
Build a bounded score (so different markets/timeframes are comparable) and compute its percentile (PR).
Arm at extremes (high PR → short candidate; low PR → long candidate).
Only print a trigger after a micro BOS, on a closed bar, with spacing/cooldown rules.
What you see on the chart (legend)
Lines:
Teal line = Impulse AVWAP (resets on new N‑bar extreme).
Aqua line = Daily AVWAP (resets each session).
PDH/PDL/PWH/PWL = prior day/week levels (toggle on/off).
Zones:
Greenish box = latest Up FVG; Reddish box = latest Down FVG.
The shading/border changes after price trades back through it.
SFP labels:
SFP‑P = SFP at Pivot (dotted line marks that pivot’s price).
SFP‑L = SFP at Level (at PDH/PDL/PWH/PWL).
Throttle: To reduce clutter, SFPs are rate‑limited per direction.
Triggers:
Triangle up = long trigger after BOS; triangle down = short trigger after BOS.
Optional badge shows direction and PR at the moment of trigger.
Optional Trigger Zone is an ATR‑sized box around the trigger bar’s close (for visualization only).
Background:
Light green/red shading = a long/short setup is “armed” (not a trigger).
Dashboard (Mini/Pro) — what each item means
PR: Percentile of the internal score (0..100). Near 0 = bullish extreme, near 100 = bearish extreme.
Gauge: Text bar that mirrors PR.
State: Idle, Armed Long (with a countdown), or Armed Short.
Cooldown: Bars remaining before a new setup can arm after a trigger.
Bars Since / Last Px: How long since last trigger and its price.
FVG: Whether price is in the latest Up/Down FVG.
Imp/Day VWAP Dist, PD Dist(ATR): Distance from those references in ATR units.
ATR% (Gate), Trend(HTF): Status of optional regime filters (volatility/trend).
How to use it (step‑by‑step)
Keep the Safety toggles ON (default): triggers/visuals on bar‑close, optional confirmed HTF for trend slope.
Choose timeframe:
Intraday (5m–1h) or Swing (1h–4h). On very fast/thin charts, enable Performance mode and raise spacing/cooldown.
Watch the dashboard:
When PR reaches an extreme and an SFP context is present, the background shades (armed).
Wait for the trigger triangle:
It prints only after a micro BOS on a closed bar and after spacing/cooldown checks.
Use the Trigger Zone box as a visual reference only:
This script never tells you to buy/sell. Apply your own plan for entry, stop, and sizing.
Example:
Bullish: Sweep under PDL (SFP‑L) and reclaim; PR in lower tail arms long; BOS up confirms → long trigger on bar close (ATR-sized trigger zone shown).
Bearish: Sweep above PDH/pivot (SFP‑L/P) and reject; PR in upper tail arms short; BOS down confirms → short trigger on bar close (ATR-sized trigger zone shown).
Settings guide (with “when to adjust”)
Safety & Stability (defaults ON)
Confirm triggers at bar close, Draw visuals at bar close: Keep ON for clean, stable prints.
Use confirmed HTF values: Applies to HTF trend slope only; keeps it from changing until the HTF bar closes.
Performance mode: Turn ON if your chart is busy or laggy.
Core & Context
ATR Length: Bigger = smoother distances; smaller = more reactive.
Impulse AVWAP Anchor: Larger = fewer resets; smaller = resets more often.
Show Daily AVWAP: ON if you want session context.
Use last FVG in logic: ON to include FVG context in arming/score.
Show PDH/PDL/PWH/PWL: ON to see prior day/week levels that often attract sweeps.
Liquidity & Microstructure
Pivot Left/Right: Higher values = stronger/rarer pivots.
Min Wick Ratio (0..1): Higher = only more pronounced SFP wicks qualify.
BOS length: Larger = stricter BOS; smaller = quicker confirmations.
Signal persistence: Keeps SFP context alive for a few bars to avoid flicker.
Signal Gating
Percent‑Rank Lookback: Larger = more stable extremes; smaller = more reactive extremes.
Arm thresholds (qHi/qLo): Move closer to 0.5 to see more arms; move toward 0/1 to see fewer arms.
TTL, Cooldown, Min bars and Min ATR distance: Space out triggers so you’re not reacting to minor noise.
Regime Filters (optional)
ATR percentile gate: Only allow triggers when volatility is at/above a set percentile.
HTF trend gate: Only allow longs when the HTF slope is up (and shorts when it’s down), above a minimum slope.
Visuals & UX
Only show “important” SFPs: Filters pivot SFPs by Volume Z and |Impulse stretch|.
Trigger badges/history and Max badge count: Control label clutter.
Compact labels: Toggle SFP‑P/L vs full names.
Dashboard mode and position; Dark theme.
Reading PR (the built‑in “oscillator”)
PR ~ 0–10: Potential bullish extreme (long side can arm).
PR ~ 90–100: Potential bearish extreme (short side can arm).
Important: “Armed” ≠ “Enter.” A trigger still needs a micro BOS on a closed bar and spacing/cooldown to pass.
Repainting, confirmations, and HTF notes
By default, prints wait for the bar to close; this reduces repaint‑like effects.
Pivot SFPs only appear after the pivot confirms (after the chosen “right” bars).
PD/W levels come from the prior completed candles and do not change intraday.
If you enable confirmed HTF values, the HTF slope will not change until its higher‑timeframe bar completes (safer but slightly delayed).
Performance tips
If labels/zones clutter or the chart lags:
Turn ON Performance mode.
Hide FVG or the Trigger Zone.
Reduce badge history or turn badge history off.
If price scaling looks compressed:
Keep optional “score”/“PR” plots OFF (they overlay price and can affect scaling).
Alerts (neutral)
Structural Liquidity: LONG TRIGGER
Structural Liquidity: SHORT TRIGGER
These fire when a trigger condition is met on a confirmed bar (with defaults).
Limitations and risk
Not every sweep/extreme reverses; false triggers occur, especially on thin markets and low timeframes.
This indicator does not provide entries, exits, or position sizing—use your own plan and risk control.
Educational/informational only; no financial advice.
License and credits
© BullByte - MPL 2.0. Open‑source for learning and research.
Built from repeated observations of how liquidity runs, imbalance (FVG), and distance from “fair” (AVWAPs) combine, and how a small BOS often marks the moment structure actually shifts.
Volatility Cone Forecaster Lite [PhenLabs]📊 Volatility Cone Forecaster
Version: PineScript™v6
📌Description
The Volatility Cone Forecaster (VCF) is an advanced indicator designed to provide traders with a forward-looking perspective on market volatility. Instead of merely measuring past price fluctuations, the VCF analyzes historical volatility data to project a statistical “cone” that outlines a probable range for future price movements. Its core purpose is to contextualize the current market environment, helping traders to anticipate potential shifts from low to high volatility periods (and vice versa). By identifying whether volatility is expanding or contracting relative to historical norms, it solves the critical problem of preparing for significant market moves before they happen, offering a clear statistical edge in strategy development.
This indicator moves beyond lagging measures by employing percentile analysis to rank the current volatility state. This allows traders to understand not just what volatility is, but how significant it is compared to the recent past. The VCF is built for discretionary traders, system developers, and options strategists who need a sophisticated understanding of market dynamics to manage risk and identify high-probability opportunities.
🚀Points of Innovation
Forward-Looking Volatility Projection: Unlike standard indicators that only show historical data, the VCF projects a statistical cone of future volatility.
Percentile-Based Regime Analysis: Ranks current volatility against historical data (e.g., 90th, 75th percentiles) to provide objective context.
Automated Regime Detection: Automatically identifies and labels the market as being in a ‘High’, ‘Low’, or ‘Normal’ volatility regime.
Expansion & Contraction Signals: Clearly indicates whether volatility is currently increasing or decreasing, signaling shifts in market energy.
Integrated ATR Comparison: Plots an ATR-equivalent volatility measure to offer a familiar point of reference against the statistical model.
Dynamic Visual Modeling: The cone visualization directly on the price chart provides an intuitive guide for future expected price ranges.
🔧Core Components
Realized Volatility Engine: Calculates historical volatility using log returns over multiple user-defined lookback periods (short, medium, long) for a comprehensive view.
Percentile Analysis Module: A custom function calculates the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles of volatility over a long-term lookback (e.g., 252 days).
Forward Projection Calculator: Uses the calculated volatility percentiles to mathematically derive and draw the upper and lower bounds of the future volatility cone.
Volatility Regime Classifier: A logic-based system that compares current volatility to the historical percentile bands to classify the market state.
🔥Key Features
Customizable Lookback Periods: Adjust short, medium, and long-term lookbacks to fine-tune the indicator’s sensitivity to different market cycles.
Configurable Forward Projection: Set the number of days for the forward cone projection to align with your specific trading horizon.
Interactive Display Options: Toggle visibility for percentile labels, ATR levels, and regime coloring to customize the chart display.
Data-Rich Information Table: A clean, on-screen table displays all key metrics, including current volatility, percentile rank, regime, and trend.
Built-in Alert Conditions: Set alerts for critical events like volatility crossing the 90th percentile, dropping below the 10th, or switching between expansion and contraction.
🎨Visualization
Volatility Cone: Shaded bands projected onto the future price axis, representing the probable price range at different statistical confidence levels (e.g., 75th-90th percentile).
Color-Coded Volatility Line: The primary volatility plot dynamically changes color (e.g., red for high, green for low) to reflect the current volatility regime, providing instant context.
Historical Percentile Bands: Horizontal lines plotted across the indicator pane mark the key percentile levels, showing how current volatility compares to the past.
On-Chart Labels: Clear labels automatically display the current volatility reading, its percentile rank, the detected regime, and trend (Expanding/Contracting).
📖Usage Guidelines
Setting Categories
Short-term Lookback: Default: 10, Range: 5-50. Controls the most sensitive volatility calculation.
Medium-term Lookback: Default: 21, Range: 10-100. The primary input for the current volatility reading.
Long-term Lookback: Default: 63, Range: 30-252. Provides a baseline for long-term market character.
Percentile Lookback Period: Default: 252, Range: 100-1000. Defines the period for historical ranking; 252 represents one trading year.
Forward Projection Days: Default: 21, Range: 5-63. Determines how many bars into the future the cone is projected.
✅Best Use Cases
Breakout Trading: Identify periods of deep consolidation when volatility falls to low percentile ranks (e.g., below 25th) and begins to expand, signaling a potential breakout.
Mean Reversion Strategies: Target trades when volatility reaches extreme high percentile ranks (e.g., above 90th), as these periods are often unsustainable and lead to contraction.
Options Strategy: Use the cone’s projected upper and lower bounds to help select strike prices for strategies like iron condors or straddles.
Risk Management: Widen stop-losses and reduce position sizes when the indicator signals a transition into a ‘High’ volatility regime.
⚠️Limitations
Probabilistic, Not Predictive: The cone represents a statistical probability, not a guarantee of future price action. Extreme, unpredictable news events can drive prices outside the cone.
Lagging by Nature: All calculations are based on historical price data, meaning the indicator will always react to, not pre-empt, market changes.
Non-Directional: The indicator forecasts the *magnitude* of future moves, not the *direction*. It should be paired with a directional analysis tool.
💡What Makes This Unique
Forward Projection: Its primary distinction is projecting a data-driven, statistical forecast of future volatility, which standard oscillators do not do.
Contextual Analysis: It doesn’t just provide a number; it tells you what that number means through percentile ranking and automated regime classification.
🔬How It Works
1. Data Calculation:
The indicator first calculates the logarithmic returns of the asset’s price. It then computes the annualized standard deviation of these returns over short, medium, and long-term lookback periods to generate realized volatility readings.
2. Percentile Ranking:
Using a 252-day lookback, it analyzes the history of the medium-term volatility and determines the values that correspond to the 10th, 25th, 50th, 75th, and 90th percentiles. This builds a statistical map of the asset’s volatility behavior.
3. Cone Projection:
Finally, it takes these historical percentile values and projects them forward in time, calculating the potential upper and lower price bounds based on what would happen if volatility were to run at those levels over the next 21 days.
💡Note:
The Volatility Cone Forecaster is most effective on daily and weekly charts where statistical volatility models are more reliable. For lower timeframes, consider shortening the lookback periods. Always use this indicator as part of a comprehensive trading plan that includes other forms of analysis.
ATR% | Volatility NormalizerThis indicator measures true volatility by expressing the Average True Range (ATR) as a percentage of price. Unlike basic ATR plots, which show raw values, this version normalizes volatility to make it directly comparable across instruments and timeframes.
How it works:
Uses True Range (High–Low plus gaps) to capture actual market movement.
Normalizes by dividing ATR by the chosen price base (default: Close).
Multiplies by 100 to output a clean ATR% line.
Smoothing is flexible: choose from RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA.
Optional Feature:
For comparison, you can toggle an auxiliary line showing the average absolute close-to-close % move, highlighting the difference between simplified and true volatility.
Why use it:
Track regime shifts: identify when volatility expands or contracts in % terms.
Compare volatility across different markets (equities, crypto, forex, commodities).
Integrate into risk management: position sizing, stop placement, or volatility filters for entries.
Interpretation:
Rising ATR% → expanding volatility, potential breakouts or unstable ranges.
Falling ATR% → contracting volatility, possible consolidation or range-bound conditions.
Sudden spikes → market “shocks” worth paying attention to.
Dual Channel System [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated trend-following and reversal detection system that constructs dynamic support and resistance channels using volatility-adjusted ATR calculations and EMA smoothing for optimal market structure analysis. Utilizing advanced dual-zone methodology with step-like boundary evolution, this indicator delivers institutional-grade channel analysis that adapts to varying volatility conditions while providing high-probability entry and exit signals through breakthrough and rejection detection with comprehensive visual mapping and alert integration.
🔶 Advanced Channel Construction
Implements dual-zone architecture using recent price extremes as foundation points, applying EMA smoothing to reduce noise and ATR multipliers for volatility-responsive channel widths. The system creates resistance channels from highest highs and support channels from lowest lows with asymmetric multiplier ratios for optimal market reaction zones.
// Core Channel Calculation Framework
ATR = ta.atr(14)
// Resistance Channel Construction
Resistance_Basis = ta.ema(ta.highest(high, lookback), lookback)
Resistance_Upper = Resistance_Basis + (ATR * resistance_mult)
Resistance_Lower = Resistance_Basis - (ATR * resistance_mult * 0.3)
// Support Channel Construction
Support_Basis = ta.ema(ta.lowest(low, lookback), lookback)
Support_Upper = Support_Basis + (ATR * support_mult * 0.4)
Support_Lower = Support_Basis - (ATR * support_mult)
// Smoothing Application
Smoothed_Resistance_Upper = ta.ema(Resistance_Upper, smooth_periods)
Smoothed_Support_Lower = ta.ema(Support_Lower, smooth_periods)
🔶 Volatility-Adaptive Zone Framework
Features dynamic ATR-based width adjustment that expands channels during high-volatility periods and contracts during consolidation phases, preventing false signals while maintaining sensitivity to genuine breakouts. The asymmetric multiplier system optimizes zone boundaries for realistic market behavior patterns.
// Dynamic Volatility Adjustment
Channel_Width_Resistance = ATR * resistance_mult
Channel_Width_Support = ATR * support_mult
// Asymmetric Zone Optimization
Resistance_Zone = Resistance_Basis ± (ATR_Multiplied * )
Support_Zone = Support_Basis ± (ATR_Multiplied * )
🔶 Step-Like Boundary Evolution
Creates horizontal step boundaries that update on smoothed bound changes, providing visual history of evolving support and resistance levels with performance-optimized array management limited to 50 historical levels for clean chart presentation and efficient processing.
🔶 Comprehensive Signal Detection
Generates break and bounce signals through sophisticated crossover analysis, monitoring price interaction with smoothed channel boundaries for high-probability entry and exit identification. The system distinguishes between breakthrough continuation and rejection reversal patterns with precision timing.
🔶 Enhanced Visual Architecture
Provides translucent zone fills with gradient intensity scaling, step-like historical boundaries, and dynamic background highlighting that activates upon zone entry. The visual system uses institutional color coding with red resistance zones and green support zones for intuitive
market structure interpretation.
🔶 Intelligent Zone Management
Implements automatic zone relevance filtering, displaying channels only when price proximity warrants analysis attention. The system maintains optimal performance through smart array management and historical level tracking with configurable lookback periods for various market conditions.
🔶 Multi-Dimensional Analysis Framework
Combines trend continuation analysis through breakthrough patterns with reversal detection via rejection signals, providing comprehensive market structure assessment suitable for both trending and ranging market conditions with volatility-normalized accuracy.
🔶 Advanced Alert Integration
Features comprehensive notification system covering breakouts, breakdowns, rejections, and bounces with customizable alert conditions. The system enables precise position management through real-time notifications of critical channel interaction events and zone boundary violations.
🔶 Performance Optimization
Utilizes efficient EMA smoothing algorithms with configurable periods for noise reduction while maintaining responsiveness to genuine market structure changes. The system includes automatic historical level cleanup and performance-optimized visual rendering for smooth operation across all timeframes.
Why Choose Dual Channel System ?
This indicator delivers sophisticated channel-based market analysis through volatility-adaptive ATR calculations and intelligent zone construction methodology. By combining dynamic support and resistance detection with advanced signal generation and comprehensive visual mapping, it provides institutional-grade channel analysis suitable for cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets. The system's ability to adapt to varying volatility conditions while maintaining signal accuracy makes it essential for traders seeking systematic approaches to breakout trading, zone reversals, and trend continuation analysis with clearly defined risk parameters and comprehensive alert integration. Also to note, this indicator is best suited for the 1D timeframe.
Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ | Trend-Following StrategyThis document presents the Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ Pine Script strategy, a systematic approach designed for trend identification and risk-managed position entry in financial markets. The strategy is engineered for long-only positions and integrates volatility-adjusted components to enhance signal robustness and trade management.
Strategic Design and Methodological Basis
The Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ strategy is constructed upon a foundation of established technical analysis principles, with a focus on objective signal generation and realistic trade execution.
Heikin Ashi for Trend Filtering: The core price data is processed via Heikin Ashi (HA) methodology to mitigate transient market noise and accentuate underlying trend direction. The script offers three distinct HA calculation modes, allowing for comparative analysis and validation:
Manual Calculation: Provides a transparent and deterministic computation of HA values.
ticker.heikinashi(): Utilizes TradingView's built-in function, employing confirmed historical bars to prevent repainting artifacts.
Regular Candles: Allows for direct comparison with standard OHLC price action.
This multi-methodological approach to trend smoothing is critical for robust signal generation.
Adaptive ATR Trailing Stop: A key component is the Average True Range (ATR)-based trailing stop. ATR serves as a dynamic measure of market volatility. The strategy incorporates user-defined parameters (
Key Value and ATR Period) to calibrate the sensitivity of this trailing stop, enabling adaptation to varying market volatility regimes. This mechanism is designed to provide a dynamic exit point, preserving capital and locking in gains as a trend progresses.
EMA Crossover for Signal Generation: Entry and exit signals are derived from the interaction between the Heikin Ashi derived price source and an Exponential Moving Average (EMA). A crossover event between these two components is utilized to objectively identify shifts in momentum, signaling potential long entry or exit points.
Rigorous Stop Loss Implementation: A critical feature for risk mitigation, the strategy includes an optional stop loss. This stop loss can be configured as a percentage or fixed point deviation from the entry price. Importantly, stop loss execution is based on real market prices, not the synthetic Heikin Ashi values. This design choice ensures that risk management is grounded in actual market liquidity and price levels, providing a more accurate representation of potential drawdowns during backtesting and live operation.
Backtesting Protocol: The strategy is configured for realistic backtesting, employing fill_orders_on_standard_ohlc=true to simulate order execution at standard OHLC prices. A configurable Date Filter is included to define specific historical periods for performance evaluation.
Data Visualization and Metrics: The script provides on-chart visual overlays for buy/sell signals, the ATR trailing stop, and the stop loss level. An integrated information table displays real-time strategy parameters, current position status, trend direction, and key price levels, facilitating immediate quantitative assessment.
Applicability
The Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ strategy is particularly suited for:
Cryptocurrency Markets: The inherent volatility of assets such as #Bitcoin and #Ethereum makes the ATR-based trailing stop a relevant tool for dynamic risk management.
Systematic Trend Following: Individuals employing systematic methodologies for trend capture will find the objective signal generation and rule-based execution aligned with their approach.
Pine Script Developers and Quants: The transparent code structure and emphasis on realistic backtesting provide a valuable framework for further analysis, modification, and integration into broader quantitative models.
Automated Trading Systems: The clear, deterministic entry and exit conditions facilitate integration into automated trading environments.
Implementation and Evaluation
To evaluate the Mutanabby_AI | ATR+ strategy, apply the script to your chosen chart on TradingView. Adjust the input parameters (Key Value, ATR Period, Heikin Ashi Method, Stop Loss Settings) to observe performance across various asset classes and timeframes. Comprehensive backtesting is recommended to assess the strategy's historical performance characteristics, including profitability, drawdown, and risk-adjusted returns.
I'd love to hear your thoughts, feedback, and any optimizations you discover! Drop a comment below, give it a like if you find it useful, and share your results.
ADR Plots + OverlayADR Plots + Overlay
This tool calculates and displays Average Daily Range (ADR) levels on your chart, giving traders a quick visual reference for expected daily price movement. It plots guide levels above and below the daily open and shows how much of the day's typical range has already been covered—all in one interactive table and on-chart overlay.
What It Does
ADR Calculation:
Uses daily high-low differences over a user-defined period (default 14 days), smoothed via RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA to calculate the average daily range.
Projected Levels:
Plots four reference levels relative to the current day's open price:
+100% ADR: Open + ADR
+50% ADR: Open + 50% of ADR
−50% ADR: Open − 50% of ADR
−100% ADR: Open − ADR
Coverage %:
Tracks intraday high and low prices to calculate what percentage of the ADR has already been covered for the current session:
Coverage % = (High − Low) ÷ ADR × 100
Interactive Table:
Shows the ADR value and today's ADR coverage percentage in a customizable table overlay. The table position, colors, border, transparency, and an optional empty top row can all be adjusted via settings.
Customization Options
Table Settings:
Position the table (top/bottom × left/right).
Change background color, text color, border color and thickness.
Toggle an empty top row for spacing.
Line Settings:
Choose color, line style (solid/dotted/dashed), and width.
Lines automatically reposition each day based on that day's open price and ADR calculation.
General Inputs:
ADR length (number of days).
Smoothing method (RMA, SMA, EMA, WMA).
How to Use It for Trading
Measure Daily Movement: Instantly know the expected daily price range based on historical volatility.
Identify Overextension: Use the coverage % to see if the market has already moved close to or beyond its typical daily range.
Plan Entries & Exits: Align trade targets and stops with ADR levels for more objective intraday planning.
Visual Reference: Horizontal guide lines and table update automatically as new data comes in, helping traders stay informed without manual calculations.
Ideal For
Intraday traders tracking daily volatility limits.
Swing traders wanting a quick reference for expected price movement per day.
Anyone seeking a volatility-based framework for planning targets, stops, or identifying extended market conditions.
VIX-Price Covariance MonitorThe VIX-Price Covariance Monitor is a statistical tool that measures the evolving relationship between a security's price and volatility indices such as the VIX (or VVIX).
It can give indication of potential market reversal, as typically, volatility and the VIX increase before markets turn red,
This indicator calculates the Pearson correlation coefficient using the formula:
ρ(X,Y) = cov(X,Y) / (σₓ × σᵧ)
Where:
ρ is the correlation coefficient
cov(X,Y) is the covariance between price and the volatility index
σₓ and σᵧ are the standard deviations of price and the volatility index
Enjoy!
Features
Dual Correlation Periods: Analyze both short-term and long-term correlation trends simultaneously
Adaptive Color Coding: Correlation strength is visually represented through color intensity
Market Condition Assessment: Automatic interpretation of correlation values into actionable market insights
Leading/Lagging Analysis: Optional time-shift analysis to detect predictive relationships
Detailed Information Panel: Real-time statistics including current correlation values, historical averages, and trading implications
Interpretation
Positive Correlation (Red): Typically bearish for price, as rising VIX correlates with falling markets. This is what traders should be looking for.
Negative Correlation (Green): Typically bullish for price, as falling VIX correlates with rising markets
How to use it
Apply the indicator to any chart to see its correlation with the default VIX index
Adjust the correlation length to match your trading timeframe (shorter for day trading, longer for swing trading)
Enable the secondary correlation period to compare different timeframes simultaneously
For advanced analysis, enable the Leading/Lagging feature to detect if VIX changes precede or follow price movements
Use the information panel to quickly assess the current market condition and potential trading implications
EVaR Indicator and Position SizingThe Problem:
Financial markets consistently show "fat-tailed" distributions where extreme events occur with higher frequency than predicted by normal distributions (Gaussian or even log-normal). These fat tails manifest in sudden price crashes, volatility spikes, and black swan events that traditional risk measures like volatility can underestimate. Standard deviation and conventional VaR calculations assume normally distributed returns, leaving traders vulnerable to severe drawdowns during market stress.
Cryptocurrencies and volatile instruments display particularly pronounced fat-tailed behavior, with extreme moves occurring 5-10 times more frequently than normal distribution models would predict. This reality demands a more sophisticated approach to risk measurement and position sizing.
The Solution: Entropic Value at Risk (EVAR)
EVaR addresses these limitations by incorporating principles from statistical mechanics and information theory through Tsallis entropy. This advanced approach captures the non-linear dependencies and power-law distributions characteristic of real financial markets.
Entropy is more adaptive than standard deviations and volatility measures.
I was inspired to create this indicator after reading the paper " The End of Mean-Variance? Tsallis Entropy Revolutionises Portfolio Optimisation in Cryptocurrencies " by by Sana Gaied Chortane and Kamel Naoui.
Key advantages of EVAR over traditional risk measures:
Superior tail risk capture: More accurately quantifies the probability of extreme market moves
Adaptability to market regimes: Self-calibrates to changing volatility environments
Non-parametric flexibility: Makes less assumptions about the underlying return distribution
Forward-looking risk assessment: Better anticipates potential market changes (just look at the charts :)
Mathematically, EVAR is defined as:
EVAR_α(X) = inf_{z>0} {z * log(1/α * M_X(1/z))}
Where the moment-generating function is calculated using q-exponentials rather than conventional exponentials, allowing precise modeling of fat-tailed behavior.
Technical Implementation
This indicator implements EVAR through a q-exponential approach from Tsallis statistics:
Returns Calculation: Price returns are calculated over the lookback period
Moment Generating Function: Approximated using q-exponentials to account for fat tails
EVAR Computation: Derived from the MGF and confidence parameter
Normalization: Scaled to for intuitive visualization
Position Sizing: Inversely modulated based on normalized EVAR
The q-parameter controls tail sensitivity—higher values (1.5-2.0) increase the weighting of extreme events in the calculation, making the model more conservative during potentially turbulent conditions.
Indicator Components
1. EVAR Risk Visualization
Dynamic EVAR Plot: Color-coded from red to green normalized risk measurement (0-1)
Risk Thresholds: Reference lines at 0.3, 0.5, and 0.7 delineating risk zones
2. Position Sizing Matrix
Risk Assessment: Current risk level and raw EVAR value
Position Recommendations: Percentage allocation, dollar value, and quantity
Stop Parameters: Mathematically derived stop price with percentage distance
Drawdown Projection: Maximum theoretical loss if stop is triggered
Interpretation and Application
The normalized EVAR reading provides a probabilistic risk assessment:
< 0.3: Low risk environment with minimal tail concerns
0.3-0.5: Moderate risk with standard tail behavior
0.5-0.7: Elevated risk with increased probability of significant moves
> 0.7: High risk environment with substantial tail risk present
Position sizing is automatically calculated using an inverse relationship to EVAR, contracting during high-risk periods and expanding during low-risk conditions. This is a counter-cyclical approach that ensures consistent risk exposure across varying market regimes, especially when the market is hyped or overheated.
Parameter Optimization
For optimal risk assessment across market conditions:
Lookback Period: Determines the historical window for risk calculation
Q Parameter: Controls tail sensitivity (higher values increase conservatism)
Confidence Level: Sets the statistical threshold for risk assessment
For cryptocurrencies and highly volatile instruments, a q-parameter between 1.5-2.0 typically provides the most accurate risk assessment because it helps capturing the fat-tailed behavior characteristic of these markets. You can also increase the q-parameter for more conservative approaches.
Practical Applications
Adaptive Risk Management: Quantify and respond to changing tail risk conditions
Volatility-Normalized Positioning: Maintain consistent exposure across market regimes
Black Swan Detection: Early identification of potential extreme market conditions
Portfolio Construction: Apply consistent risk-based sizing across diverse instruments
This indicator is my own approach to entropy-based risk measures as an alterative to volatility and standard deviations and it helps with fat-tailed markets.
Enjoy!
+ ATR Table and BracketsHi, all. I'm back with a new indicator—one I firmly believe could be one of the most valuable indicators you keep in your indicator toolshed—based around true range.
This is a simple, streamlined indicator utilizing true range and average true range that will help any trader with stoploss, trailing stoploss, and take-profit placement—things that I know many traders use average true range for. It could also be useful for trade entries as well, depending on the trader's style.
Typically, most traders (or at least what I've seen recommended across websites, video tutorials on YouTube, etc.) are taught to simply take the ATR number and use that, and possibly some sort of multiplier, as your stoploss and take-profit. This is fine, but I thought that it might be possible to dive a bit deeper into these values. Because an average is a combination of values, some higher, some lower, and we often see ATR spikes during periods of high volatility, I thought wouldn't it be useful to know what value those ATR spikes are, and how do they relate to the ATR? Then I thought to myself, well, what about the most volatile candle within that ATR (the candle with the greatest true range)? Couldn't knowing that value be useful to a trader? So then the idea of a table displaying these values, along with the ATR and the ATR times some multiplier number, would be a useful, simple way to display this information. That's what we have here.
The table is made up of two columns, one with the name of the metric being measured, and the other with its value. That's it. Simple.
As nice as this was, I thought an additional, great, and perhaps better, way to visualize this information would be in the form of brackets extending from the current bar. These are simply lines/labels plotted at the price values of the ATR, ATR times X, highest ATR, highest ATR times X, and highest TR value. These labels supply the actual values of the ATR, etc., but may also display the price if you should choose (both of these values are toggleable in the 'Inputs' section of the indicator.). Additionally, you can choose to display none of these labels, or all five if you wish (leaves the chart a bit cluttered, as shown in the image below), though I suspect you'll determine your preferences for which information you'd like to see and which not.
Chart with all five lines/labels displayed. I adjusted the ATRX value to 3 just to make the screenshot as legible as possible. Default is set to 1.5. As you can see, the label doesn't show the multiplier number, but the table does.
Here's a screenshot of the labels showing the price in addition to the value of the ATR, set to "Previous Closing Price," (see next paragraph for what that means) and highest TR. Personally, I don't see the value in the displaying the price, but I thought some people might want that. It's not available in the table as of now, but perhaps if I get enough requests for it I will add it.
That's basically it, but one last detail I need to go over is the dropdown box labeled "Bar Value ATR Levels are Oriented To." Firstly, this has no effect on Highest ATR, Highest ATRX, and Highest TR levels. Those are based on the ATR up to the last closed candle, meaning they aren't including the value of the currently open candle (this would be useless). However, knowing that different traders trade different ways it seemed to me prudent to allow for traders to select which opening or closing value the trader wishes to have the ATR brackets based on. For example, as someone who has consumed much No Nonsense Forex content I know that traders are urged to enter their trades in the last fifteen minutes of the trading day because the ATR is unlikely to change significantly in that period (ATR being the centerpiece of NNFX money management), so one of three selections here is to plot the brackets based on the ATR's inclusion of this value (this of course means the brackets will move while the candle is still open). The other options are to set the brackets to the current opening price, or the previous closing price. Depending on what you're trading many times these prices are virtually identical, but sometimes price gaps (stocks in particular), so, wanting your brackets placed relative to the previous close as opposed to the current open might be preferable for some traders.
And that's it. I really hope you guys like this indicator. I haven't seen anything closely similar to it on TradingView, and I think it will be something you all will find incredibly handy.
Please enjoy!
Volatility Zones (STDEV %)This indicator displays the relative volatility of an asset as a percentage, based on the standard deviation of price over a custom length.
🔍 Key features:
• Uses standard deviation (%) to reflect recent price volatility
• Classifies volatility into three zones:
Low volatility (≤2%) — highlighted in blue
Medium volatility (2–4%) — highlighted in orange
High volatility (>4%) — highlighted in red
• Supports visual background shading and colored line output
• Works on any timeframe and asset
📊 This tool is useful for identifying low-risk entry zones, periods of expansion or contraction in price behavior, and dynamic market regime changes.
You can adjust the STDEV length to suit your strategy or timeframe. Best used in combination with your entry logic or trend filters.
EWMA Volatility EstimatorThis script calculates EWMA Volatility (Exponentially Weighted Moving Average Volatility).
Commonly used model in financial risk management.
It estimates recent price volatility by applying more weight to the most recent returns, capturing volatility clustering while remaining responsive to fast market shifts.
The method uses a decay factor (λ) of 0.94, the standard value used in models like RiskMetrics, and converts the variance estimate into annualized volatility in percentage terms.
This is not a forecasting tool. It’s an estimator that reflects the magnitude of recent price moves in a statistically robust way.
It can be helpful for:
Understanding regime shifts in market behavior
Designing position sizing rules based on recent volatility
Filtering entries during high or low volatility phases
How It Works
Computes log returns of the closing price.
Squares the returns to get a proxy for variance.
Applies an exponential moving average to the squared returns using an equivalent EMA period based on λ = 0.94.
Converts the result to volatility by taking the square root and scaling to a percentage.
Key Characteristics
Backward-looking estimator
Reacts faster than standard rolling-window volatility
Smooths noise while still being sensitive to recent spikes
This script is educational and informational. It is not financial advice or a guarantee of performance. Always test any tool as part of a broader strategy before using it in live markets.
Options Volatility Strategy Analyzer [TradeDots]The Options Volatility Strategy Analyzer is a specialized tool designed to help traders assess market conditions through a detailed examination of historical volatility, market benchmarks, and percentile-based thresholds. By integrating multiple volatility metrics (including VIX and VIX9D) with color-coded regime detection, the script provides users with clear, actionable insights for selecting appropriate options strategies.
📝 HOW IT WORKS
1. Historical Volatility & Percentile Calculations
Annualized Historical Volatility (HV): The script automatically computes the asset’s historical volatility using log returns over a user-defined period. It then annualizes these values based on the chart’s timeframe, helping you understand the asset’s typical volatility profile.
Dynamic Percentile Ranks: To gauge where the current volatility level stands relative to past behavior, historical volatility values are compared against short, medium, and long lookback periods. Tracking these percentile ranks allows you to quickly see if volatility is high or low compared to historical norms.
2. Multi-Market Benchmark Comparison
VIX and VIX9D Integration: The script tracks market volatility through the VIX and VIX9D indices, comparing them to the asset’s historical volatility. This reveals whether the asset’s volatility is outpacing, lagging, or remaining in sync with broader market volatility conditions.
Market Context Analysis: A built-in term-structure check can detect market stress or relative calm by measuring how VIX compares to shorter-dated volatility (VIX9D). This helps you decide if the present environment is risk-prone or relatively stable.
3. Volatility Regime Detection
Color-Coded Background: The analyzer assigns a volatility regime (e.g., “High Asset Vol,” “Low Asset Vol,” “Outpacing Market,” etc.) based on current historical volatility percentile levels and asset vs. market ratios. A color-coded background highlights the regime, enabling traders to quickly interpret the market’s mood.
Alerts on Regime Changes & Spikes: Automated alerts warn you about any significant expansions or contractions in volatility, allowing you to react swiftly in changing conditions.
4. Strategy Forecast Table
Real-Time Strategy Suggestions: At the close of each bar, an on-chart table generates suggested options strategies (e.g., selling premium in high volatility or buying premium in low volatility). These suggestions provide a quick summary of potential tactics suited to the current regime.
Contextual Market Data: The table also displays key statistics, such as VIX levels, asset historical volatility percentile, or ratio comparisons, helping you confirm whether volatility conditions warrant more conservative or more aggressive strategies.
🛠️ HOW TO USE
1. Select Your Timeframe: The script supports multiple timeframes. For short-term trading, intraday charts often reveal faster shifts in volatility. For swing or position trading, daily or weekly charts may be more stable and produce fewer false signals.
2. Check the Volatility Regime: Observe the background color and on-chart labels to identify the current regime (e.g., “HIGH ASSET VOL,” “LOW VOL + LAGGING,” etc.).
3. Review the Forecast Table: The table suggests strategy ideas (e.g., iron condors, long straddles, ratio spreads) depending on whether volatility is elevated, subdued, or spiking. Use these as a starting point for designing trades that match your risk tolerance.
4. Combine with Additional Analysis: For optimal results, confirm signals with your broader trading plan, technical tools (moving averages, price action), and fundamental research. This script is most effective when viewed as one component in a comprehensive decision-making process.
❗️LIMITATIONS
Directional Neutrality: This indicator analyzes volatility environments but does not predict price direction (up/down). Traders must combine with directional analysis for complete strategy selection.
Late or Missed Signals: Since all calculations require a bar to close, sharp intrabar volatility moves may not appear in real-time.
False Positives in Choppy Markets: Rapid changes in percentile ranks or VIX movements can generate conflicting or premature regime shifts.
Data Sensitivity: Accuracy depends on the availability and stability of volatility data. Significant gaps or unusual market conditions may skew results.
Market Correlation Assumptions: The system assumes assets generally correlate with S&P 500 volatility patterns. May be less effective for:
Small-cap stocks with unique volatility drivers
International stocks with different market dynamics
Sector-specific events disconnected from broad market
Cryptocurrency-related assets with independent volatility patterns
RISK DISCLAIMER
Options trading involves substantial risk and is not suitable for all investors. Options strategies can result in significant losses, including the total loss of premium paid. The complexity of options strategies requires thorough understanding of the risks involved.
This indicator provides volatility analysis for educational and informational purposes only and should not be considered as investment advice. Past volatility patterns do not guarantee future performance. Market conditions can change rapidly, and volatility regimes may shift without warning.
No trading system can guarantee profits, and all trading involves the risk of loss. The indicator's regime classifications and strategy suggestions should be used as part of a comprehensive trading plan that includes proper risk management, directional analysis, and consideration of broader market conditions.
Exponential Trend [AlgoAlpha]OVERVIEW
This script plots an adaptive exponential trend system that initiates from a dynamic anchor and accelerates based on time and direction. Unlike standard moving averages or trailing stops, the trend line here doesn't follow price directly—it expands exponentially from a pivot determined by a modified Supertrend logic. The result is a non-linear trend curve that starts at a specific price level and accelerates outward, allowing traders to visually assess trend strength, persistence, and early-stage reversal points through both base and volatility-adjusted extensions.
CONCEPTS
This indicator builds on the idea that trend-following tools often need dynamic, non-static expansion to reflect real market behavior. It uses a simplified Supertrend mechanism to define directional context and anchor levels, then applies an exponential growth function to simulate trend acceleration over time. The exponential growth is unidirectional and resets only when the direction flips, preserving trend memory. This method helps avoid whipsaws and adds time-weighted confirmation to trends. A volatility buffer—derived from ATR and modifiable by a width multiplier—adds a second layer to indicate zones of risk around the main trend path.
FEATURES
Exponential Trend Logic : Once a directional anchor is set, the base trend line accelerates using an exponential formula tied to elapsed bars, making the trend stronger the longer it persists.
Volatility-Adjusted Extension : A secondary band is plotted above or below the base trend line, widened by ATR to visualize volatility zones, act as soft stop regions or as a better entry point (Dynamic Support/Resistance).
Color-Coded Visualization : Clear green/red base and extension lines with shaded fills indicate trend direction and confidence levels.
Signal Markers & Alerts : Triangle markers indicate confirmed trend reversals. Built-in alerts notify users of bullish or bearish direction changes in real-time.
USAGE
Use this script to identify strong trends early, visually measure their momentum over time, and determine safe areas for entries or exits. Start by adjusting the *Exponential Rate* to control how quickly the trend expands—the higher the rate, the more aggressive the curve. The *Initial Distance* sets how far the anchor band is placed from price initially, helping filter out noise. Increase the *Width Multiplier* to widen the volatility zone for more conservative entries or exits. When the price crosses above or below the base line, a new trend is assumed and the exponential projection restarts from the new anchor. The base trend and its extension both shift over time, but only reset on a confirmed reversal. This makes the tool especially useful for momentum continuation setups or trailing stop logic in trending markets.
Normalized FX Weighted Daily % Change vs DXYThis indicator tracks international liquidity flows by measuring the USD’s relative strength against major currencies—EUR, CNY, JPY, GBP, and CAD. It calculates the weighted percentage change of each pair over a specified interval. A positive reading means the USD is weakening (liquidity flowing out of the US), while a negative reading indicates the USD is strengthening (liquidity flowing in). Additionally, the indicator incorporates the DXY index and VIX, with all components normalized using Z-scores for clear, comparable insights into market dynamics.
Hourly Volatility Explorer📊 Hourly Volatility Explorer: Master The Market's Pulse
Unlock the hidden rhythms of price action with this sophisticated volatility analysis tool. The Hourly Volatility Explorer reveals the most potent trading hours across multiple time zones, giving you a strategic edge in timing your trades.
🌟 Key Features:
⏰ Multi-Timezone Analysis
• GMT (UTC+0)
• EST (UTC-5) - New York
• BST (UTC+1) - London
• JST (UTC+9) - Tokyo
• AEST (UTC+10) - Sydney
Perfect for tracking major market sessions and their overlaps!
📈 Dynamic Visualization
• Color-gradient hourly bars for instant pattern recognition
• Real-time volatility comparison
• Interactive data table with comprehensive statistics
• Automatic highlighting of peak volatility periods
🎯 Strategic Applications:
Day Trading:
• Identify optimal trading windows
• Avoid low-liquidity periods
• Capitalize on session overlaps
• Fine-tune entry/exit timing
Risk Management:
• Set appropriate stop losses based on hourly volatility
• Adjust position sizes for different market hours
• Optimize risk-reward ratios
• Plan around high-impact hours
Global Market Analysis:
• Track volatility across all major sessions
• Spot institutional trading patterns
• Identify quiet vs. active periods
• Monitor 24/7 market dynamics
💡 Perfect For:
• Forex traders navigating global sessions
• Crypto traders in 24/7 markets
• Day traders optimizing execution times
• Algorithmic traders fine-tuning strategies
• Risk managers calibrating exposure
📊 Advanced Features:
• Rolling 3-month analysis for reliable patterns
• Precise pip movement calculations
• Sample size tracking for statistical validity
• Real-time current hour comparison
• Color-coded visual system for instant insights
⚡ Pro Trading Tips:
• Use during major session overlaps for maximum opportunity
• Compare patterns across different instruments
• Combine with volume analysis for deeper insights
• Track seasonal variations in hourly patterns
• Build trading schedules around peak hours
🎓 Educational Value:
• Understand market microstructure
• Learn global market dynamics
• Master timezone relationships
• Develop timing intuition
🛠️ Customization:
• Adjustable lookback period
• Flexible pip multiplier
• Multiple timezone options
• Visual preference settings
Whether you're scalping the 1-minute chart or managing longer-term positions, the Hourly Volatility Explorer provides the precise timing intelligence needed for today's global markets.
Transform your trading schedule from guesswork to science. Know exactly when markets move, why they move, and how to position yourself for maximum opportunity.
#TechnicalAnalysis #Trading #Volatility #MarketTiming #DayTrading #Forex #Crypto #TradingView #PineScript #MarketAnalysis #TradingStrategy #RiskManagement #GlobalMarkets #FinancialMarkets #TradingTools #MarketStructure #PriceAction #Scalping #SwingTrading #AlgoTrading
BTC-USDT Liquidity Trend [Ajit Pandit]his script helps traders visualize trend direction and identify liquidity zones where price might react due to past pivot levels. The color-coded candles and extended pivot lines make it easier to spot support/resistance levels and potential breakout points.
Key Features:
1. Trend Detection Using EMA
Uses two EMA calculations to determine the trend:
emaValue: Standard EMA based on length1
correction: Adjusted price movement relative to EMA
Trend: Another EMA of the corrected value
Determines bullish (signalUp) and bearish (signalDn) signals when Trend crosses emaValue.
2. Candlestick Coloring Based on Trend
Candlesticks are colored:
Uptrend → Blue (up color)
Downtrend → Pink (dn color)
Neutral → No color
3. Liquidity Zones (Pivot Highs & Lows)
Identifies pivot highs and lows using a customizable pivot length.
Draws liquidity lines:
High pivot lines (Blue, adjustable width)
Low pivot lines (Pink, adjustable width)
Extends lines indefinitely until price breaks above/below the level.
Removes broken pivot levels dynamically.
Trendchange Zones Indicator | iSolani
Spotting Reversals Before They Happen: The iSolani Trendshift System
Where RSI Meets Smart Volume Analysis - Your Visual Guide to Market Turns
Core Methodology
RSI-Powered Zones
Identifies critical levels using:
14-period RSI (default) with 70/30 thresholds
Semi-transparent boxes marking overbought (red) and oversold (green) territories
Zone persistence until RSI returns to neutral range
Dynamic Level Tracking
Plots evolving support/resistance using:
Pivot highs/lows with 15-bar lookback (default)
Auto-extending lines that adapt to new price extremes
Volume-Confirmed Breakouts
Flags significant moves with:
5/10 EMA volume oscillator
20% volume threshold (default) for confirmation
Technical Innovation
Three-Layer Confirmation
Unique combination of:
Classic RSI extremes
Price structure through pivot points
Volume-fueled momentum shifts
Adaptive Visualization
Zones maintain historical context at 33% transparency
Dynamic lines extend indefinitely until invalidated
Discreet labels for breakout events
System Workflow
Calculates RSI values in real-time
Draws colored zones when RSI crosses 70/30
Marks pivot points every 15 bars (default)
Updates support/resistance lines on new pivots
Triggers alerts when price breaks levels with volume confirmation
Standard Configuration
RSI Settings : 14-period length
Pivot Detection : 15-bar left/right lookback
Visuals : 33% transparency zones with thin borders
Volume Threshold : 20% oscillator difference
Alerts : Breakout signals with "B" labels
This system transforms the classic RSI into a spatial analysis tool - not just showing when markets are overextended, but where they're likely to reverse. The dynamic lines act as moving barriers that adapt to market structure, while the volume filter ensures only high-conviction breaks get flagged. By layering momentum, price action, and volume dynamics, it creates a multi-spectrum view of potential trend changes.
Volatility with Sigma BandsOverview
The Volatility Analysis with Sigma Bands indicator is a powerful and flexible tool designed for traders who want to gain deeper insights into market price fluctuations. It calculates historical volatility within a user-defined time range and displays ±1σ, ±2σ, and ±3σ standard deviation bands, helping traders identify potential support, resistance levels, and extreme price behaviors.
Key Features
Multiple Volatility Band Displays:
±1σ Range (Yellow line): Covers approximately 68% of price fluctuations.
±2σ Range (Blue line): Covers approximately 95% of price fluctuations.
±3σ Range (Fuchsia line): Covers approximately 99% of price fluctuations.
Dynamic Probability Mode:
Toggle between standard normal distribution probabilities (68.2%, 95.4%, 99.7%) and actual historical probability calculations, allowing for more accurate analysis tailored to varying market conditions.
Highly Customizable Label Display:
The label shows:
Real-time volatility
Annualized volatility
Current price
Price ranges for each σ level
Users can adjust the label’s position and horizontal offset to prevent it from overlapping key price areas.
Real-Time Calculation & Visualization:
The indicator updates in real-time based on the selected time range and current market data, making it suitable for day trading, swing trading, and long-term trend analysis.
Use Cases
Risk Management:
Understand the distribution probabilities of price within different standard deviation bands to set more effective stop-loss and take-profit levels.
Trend Confirmation:
Determine trend strength or spot potential reversals by observing whether the price breaks above or below ±1σ or ±2σ ranges.
Market Sentiment Analysis:
Price movement beyond the ±3σ range often indicates extreme market sentiment, providing potential reversal opportunities.
Backtesting and Historical Analysis:
Utilize the customizable time range feature to backtest volatility during various periods, providing valuable insights for strategy refinement.
The Volatility Analysis with Sigma Bands indicator is an essential tool for traders seeking to understand market volatility patterns. Whether you're a day trader looking for precise entry and exit points or a long-term investor analyzing market behavior, this indicator provides deep insights into volatility dynamics, helping you make more confident trading decisions.
Position resetThe "Position Reset" indicator
The Position Reset indicator is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed to identify possible entry points into short positions based on an analysis of market volatility and the behavior of various groups of bidders. The main purpose of this indicator is to provide traders with information about the current state of the market and help them decide whether to open short positions depending on the level of volatility and the mood of the main players.
The main components of the indicator:
1. Parameters for the RSI (Relative Strength Index):
The indicator uses two sets of parameters to calculate the RSI: one for bankers ("Banker"), the other for hot money ("Hot Money").
RSI for Bankers:
RSIBaseBanker: The baseline for calculating bankers' RSI. The default value is 50.
RSIPeriodBanker: The period for calculating the RSI for bankers. The default period is 14.
RSI for hot money:
RSIBaseHotMoney: The baseline for calculating the RSI of hot money. The default value is 30.
RSIPeriodHotMoney: The period for calculating the RSI for hot money. The default period is 21.
These parameters allow you to adjust the sensitivity of the indicator to the actions of different groups of market participants.
2. Sensitivity:
Sensitivity determines how strongly changes in the RSI will affect the final result of calculations. It is configured separately for bankers and hot money:
SensitivityBanker: Sensitivity for bankers' RSI. It is set to 2.0 by default.
SensitivityHotMoney: Sensitivity for hot money RSI. It is set to 1.0 by default.
Changing these parameters allows you to adapt the indicator to different market conditions and trader preferences.
3. Volatility Analysis:
Volatility is measured based on the length of the period, which is set by the volLength parameter. The default length is 30 candles. The indicator calculates the difference between the highest and lowest value for the specified period and divides this difference by the lowest value, thus obtaining the volatility coefficient.
Based on this coefficient, four levels of volatility are distinguished.:
Extreme volatility: The coefficient is greater than or equal to 0.25.
High volatility: The coefficient ranges from 0.125 to 0.2499.
Normal volatility: The coefficient ranges from 0.05 to 0.1249.
Low volatility: The coefficient is less than 0.0499.
Each level of volatility has its own significance for making decisions about entering a position.
4. Calculation functions:
The indicator uses several functions to process the RSI and volatility data.:
rsi_function: This function applies to every type of RSI (bankers and hot money). It adjusts the RSI value according to the set sensitivity and baseline, limiting the range of values from 0 to 20.
Moving Averages: Simple moving averages (SMA), exponential moving averages (EMA), and weighted moving averages (RMA) are used to smooth fluctuations. They are applied to different time intervals to obtain the average values of the RSI.
Thus, the indicator creates a comprehensive picture of market behavior, taking into account both short-term and long-term dynamics.
5. Bearish signals:
Bearish signals are considered situations when the RSI crosses certain levels simultaneously with a drop in indicators for both types of market participants (bankers and hot money).:
The bankers' RSI crossing is below the level of 8.5.
The current hot money RSI is less than 18.
The moving averages for banks and hot money are below their signal lines.
The RSI values for bankers are less than 5.
These conditions indicate a possible beginning of a downtrend.
6. Signal generation:
Depending on the current level of volatility and the presence of bearish signals, the indicator generates three types of signals:
Orange circle: Extremely high volatility and the presence of a bearish signal.
Yellow circle: High volatility and the presence of a bearish signal.
Green circle: Low volatility and the presence of a bearish signal.
These visual markers help the trader to quickly understand what level of risk accompanies each specific signal.
7. Notifications:
The indicator supports the function of sending notifications when one of the three types of signals occurs. The notification contains a brief description of the conditions under which the signal was generated, which allows the trader to respond promptly to a change in the market situation.
Advantages of using the "Position Reset" indicator:
Multi-level analysis: The indicator combines technical analysis (RSI) and volatility assessment, providing a comprehensive view of the current market situation.
Flexibility of settings: The ability to adjust the sensitivity parameters and the RSI baselines allows you to adapt the indicator to any market conditions and personal preferences of the trader.
Clear visualization: The use of colored labels on the chart simplifies the perception of information and helps to quickly identify key points for entering a trade.
Notification support: The notification sending feature makes it much easier to monitor the market, allowing you to respond to important events in time.
Choppiness IndexThis Pine Script v6 indicator calculates the Choppiness Index over a user-defined length and segments it based on user-defined thresholds for choppy and trending market conditions. The indicator allows users to toggle the visibility of choppy, trending, and neutral segments using checkboxes.
Here's how it works:
Inputs: Users can set the length for the Choppiness Index calculation and thresholds for choppy and trending conditions. They can also choose which segments to display.
Choppiness Index Calculation: The script calculates the Choppiness Index using the ATR and the highest-high and lowest-low over the specified length.
Segment Determination: The script determines which segment the current Choppiness Index value falls into based on the thresholds. The color changes exactly at the threshold values.
Dynamic Plotting: The Choppiness Index is plotted with a color that changes based on the segment. The plot is only visible if the segment is "turned on" by the user.
Threshold Lines: Dashed horizontal lines are plotted at the choppy and trending thresholds for reference.
This indicator helps traders visualize market conditions and identify potential transitions between choppy and trending phases, with precise color changes at the threshold values.
RSI Volatility Suppression Zones [BigBeluga]RSI Volatility Suppression Zones is an advanced indicator that identifies periods of suppressed RSI volatility and visualizes these suppression zones on the main chart. It also highlights breakout dynamics, giving traders actionable insights into potential market momentum.
🔵 Key Features:
Detection of Suppression Zones:
Identifies periods where RSI volatility is suppressed and marks these zones on the main price chart.
Breakout Visualization:
When the price breaks above the suppression zone, the box turns aqua, and an upward label is drawn to indicate a bullish breakout.
If the price breaks below the zone, the box turns purple, and a downward label is drawn for a bearish breakout.
Breakouts accompanied by a "+" label represent strong moves caused by short-lived, tight zones, signaling significant momentum.
Wave Labels for Consolidation:
If the suppression zone remains unbroken, a "wave" label is displayed within the gray box, signifying continued price stability within the range.
Gradient Intensity Below RSI:
A gradient strip below the RSI line increases in intensity based on the duration of the suppressed RSI volatility period.
This visual aid helps traders gauge how extended the low volatility phase is.
🔵 Usage:
Identify Breakouts: Use color-coded boxes and labels to detect breakouts and their direction, confirming potential trend continuation or reversals.
Evaluate Market Momentum: Leverage "+" labels for strong breakout signals caused by short suppression phases, indicating significant market moves.
Monitor Price Consolidation: Observe gray boxes and wave labels to understand ongoing consolidation phases.
Analyze RSI Behavior: Utilize the gradient strip to measure the longevity of suppressed volatility phases and anticipate breakout potential.
RSI Volatility Suppression Zones provides a powerful visual representation of RSI volatility suppression, breakout signals, and price consolidation, making it a must-have tool for traders seeking to anticipate market movements effectively.
