Uptrick: Price Memory TrendIntroduction
Uptrick: Price Memory Trend is a custom indicator designed to detect directional shifts and volatility changes using a non-traditional price memory approach. Unlike moving average systems, it builds a dynamic memory of price that adapts gradually over time, allowing it to detect significant deviations and trend transitions with reduced noise.
Overview
This script identifies trend changes by comparing the current price to a memory-based baseline. When price deviates significantly from this memory base, it triggers a trend regime shift—either bullish or bearish. Adaptive deviation bands are calculated using absolute deviation from the memory base, not ATR or standard deviation, which allows the indicator to capture volatility uniquely. Visual components include color-coded candles, labeled signals, optional bands, and a live status table summarizing current trend metrics.
Originality
The indicator’s core innovation lies in its use of a decaying memory function to track trend direction, replacing moving averages with a price memory that responds only to significant deviations. This method avoids lag typically associated with smoothing techniques, enabling timely trend detection. Furthermore, deviation is measured directly in price terms, rather than through volatility surrogates like ATR or Bollinger Bands, resulting in a more raw and responsive depiction of price behavior.
Inputs
Core Engine
Memory Strength: Sets how strongly the memory responds to price changes. Higher values make the memory base more reactive.
Memory Decay: Controls how much past memory is retained. Lower values weight new prices more heavily.
Deviation Length: Length of the EMA used to smooth absolute price deviation. A longer setting results in smoother bands.
Band Multiplier: Expands or contracts the dynamic bands. Higher values widen the bands, reducing sensitivity.
Customization
Color Palette: Selects one of six predefined color schemes for bull and bear visuals.
Show Bands: Enables or disables the display of deviation bands.
Look: Chooses between 'Bands', 'Trail', or 'Intense' styles, affecting how bands and fills are drawn.
Bands
Trail
Intense
Show Info Table: Toggles display of the real-time trend and volatility status panel.
Table Position: Determines which corner of the chart the info panel appears in.
Text Size: Adjusts font size used within the info table.
Features
Trend Detection
Bullish Shift: Triggered when price crosses above the upper band, entering a new bullish regime.
Bearish Shift: Triggered when price crosses below the lower band, entering a new bearish regime.
Trend state is persistent and updated only on confirmed transitions, avoiding repeated entries in the same direction.
Candle Coloring
Candles are dynamically recolored based on current trend direction: bull, bear, or neutral.
Signal Labels
Visual labels marked "Up" or "Down" are placed on the chart when a regime shift occurs, helping to mark turning points.
Deviation Bands
Dynamic upper and lower bands are drawn based on smoothed absolute deviation from the memory base.
Additional outer bands based on ATR may be drawn to highlight zone intensity when the 'Intense' or 'Trail' styles are selected.
Bands visually indicate overextension and help frame price context relative to memory.
Alerts
Built-in alert conditions trigger on bullish or bearish trend shifts, useful for automation or notifications.
Info Table
The optional info table displays:
Current trend direction
Band state (calm, hot, or cool)
Price stretch from base
Trend age in bars
Confidence level based on deviation
Memory slope and acceleration
Band width and compression state
Reversion risk based on stretch level
Info Table:
Trade Example:
Logic
Price Memory
A recursive formula updates a memory variable based on the current price.
The memory adjusts only when the price deviates meaningfully from its previous value.
The formula uses a combination of delta-weighting and exponential decay:
> memory := previous_memory + delta × memory_strength
> memory := memory × memory_decay + price × (1 - memory_decay)
This produces a smooth, adaptive base that responds gradually to directional price moves.
Deviation and Bands
Absolute deviation between price and the memory base is calculated and smoothed using an EMA.
The upper and lower bands are then calculated as:
> Upper Band = memory base + (smoothed deviation × band multiplier)
> Lower Band = memory base - (smoothed deviation × band multiplier)
ATR-based extensions can optionally be drawn around these bands for added visual structure.
Trend Logic
Bullish and bearish states are tracked using crossovers and crossunders of price against the upper and lower bands.
The indicator maintains a persistent trend state variable that updates only when a confirmed regime change occurs.
This prevents multiple signals within the same trend direction (non-pyramiding behavior).
Stretch and Band Analysis
Stretch is measured as the deviation of price from memory, normalized by smoothed deviation.
Band width is tracked over time and used to detect compression or expansion.
Band position is calculated to identify where price sits between the upper and lower bands.
Info Table Metrics
Memory Slope and Acceleration: Show first and second derivative of the memory base to capture trend speed and change.
Confidence Level: Based on stretch intensity, indicating trend strength.
Reversion Risk: Inferred from how extended price is beyond the band.
Compression: Evaluated by comparing current band width to its recent average.
Summary
Uptrick: Price Memory Trend provides an alternative framework for trend identification by replacing traditional smoothing with adaptive memory logic. It measures price deviation without reliance on ATR or standard deviation, instead focusing on distance from a reactive baseline. With regime-based trend tracking, customizable visuals, and a detailed status table, it supports both discretionary and system-driven trading styles.
Disclaimer
This script is for informational and educational purposes only. It does not provide financial advice or guarantees. Trading involves risk, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always perform your own research before making trading decisions.
Statistics
4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis4H HOD/LOD Checkpoint Analysis - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator is a data-driven probability framework for NQ Futures traders that predicts High-of-Day (HOD) and Low-of-Day (LOD) placement based on statistical analysis of 3,136+ trading days (2013-2025). Unlike traditional indicators that rely on technical signals, this tool uses checkpoint-based state analysis with zero forward-looking bias to provide real-time probabilities of whether the daily range is complete.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All probabilities, patterns, and statistics were derived from a 10+ year historical dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: CHECKPOINT METHODOLOGY
What is a Checkpoint?
A checkpoint occurs when a 4-hour candle closes. At this moment, the indicator "locks" the current market state and calculates probabilities for the remainder of the trading day. The key innovation is that state never changes after locking - probabilities remain constant throughout the session until the next checkpoint.
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon (3 hours only)
Five Checkpoints:
10PM Checkpoint - After 6PM closes
2AM Checkpoint - After 10PM closes
6AM Checkpoint - After 2AM closes
10AM Checkpoint - After 6AM closes (most critical)
2PM Checkpoint - After 10AM closes (highest conviction fade signals)
HOW IT WORKS: THE THREE-FACTOR STATE SYSTEM
At each checkpoint, the indicator evaluates three critical factors to determine probability:
1. ELIMINATIONS (Quantity)
An "elimination" occurs when a candle trades beyond a previous candle's high or low, effectively removing that candle from contention for HOD/LOD.
Example at 10AM Checkpoint:
6PM high = 18,000
10PM high = 18,050 (eliminates 6PM high)
2AM high = 18,100 (eliminates 10PM high)
6AM high = 18,075 (does NOT eliminate 2AM high)
Result: 2 eliminations
The number of eliminations indicates trend strength:
0 eliminations = Range-bound, high probability extremes already set
1-2 eliminations = Moderate trend
3-4 eliminations = Strong trend day, range likely to extend
2. STRUCTURE (Pattern Type)
The indicator distinguishes between two elimination patterns:
Sequential: Eliminations occur in order (6pm → 10pm → 2am → 6am → 10am)
Indicates smooth, consistent trend
Example: 10pm eliminates 6pm, then 2am eliminates 10pm (sequential)
Skip: Eliminations skip candles
Indicates choppy/reversal behavior
Example: 2am eliminates 6pm but NOT 10pm (skip pattern)
Why it matters: Skip patterns show 2X probability differences compared to sequential patterns. At 10AM checkpoint with 2 eliminations, skip pattern shows 64% participation rate vs 36% for sequential pattern with previous survived.
3. PREVIOUS CANDLE STATUS
Did the immediately prior candle get eliminated?
Eliminated: Previous candle's high/low was taken out
Indicates relentless trend
Higher probability of continuation
Survived: Previous candle's high/low still intact
Indicates trend pause
Higher probability of mean reversion or range completion
Critical insight: High and low are tracked separately. At 2AM checkpoint, 10PM might have eliminated 6PM high (relentless uptrend) but NOT eliminated 6PM low (low survived). This creates different probabilities for HOD vs LOD.
VISUAL ELEMENTS
4-Hour Candle Boxes
Each 4H candle is displayed as a colored box showing its range:
Gray = 6PM (evening)
Blue = 10PM (Asia)
Purple = 2AM (early London)
Orange = 6AM (London + NY Open) - THE CURVE SESSION
Teal = 10AM (NY morning) - THE MONEY SESSION
Red = 2PM (NY afternoon) - THE FADE SESSION
HOD/LOD Lines
Black horizontal lines extend from current HOD/LOD with labels showing:
Which candle set the extreme
Current price level
THE CHECKPOINT TABLE EXPLAINED
Table Header:
Shows current checkpoint (e.g., "🎯 10AM CHECKPOINT") or "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" if between checkpoints.
Main Metrics (Side-by-Side Comparison):
The table displays HOD and LOD separately in two columns because they can have different patterns:
METRIC
HODLOD Eliminations
Number of candles eliminated so far for highs
Number of candles eliminated so far for lows
Structure
Sequential or Skip pattern for highs
Sequential or Skip pattern for lows
Prev Candle
Was previous candle's high eliminated or did it survive?
Was previous candle's low eliminated or did it survive?
Pattern
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Combined interpretation: Relentless/Paused/Skip/Early
Color Coding:
Structure Row:
White = Sequential (smooth trend)
Orange = Skip (choppy/reversal)
Previous Candle Row:
Red = Eliminated (relentless trend continuing)
Blue = Survived (trend paused)
Pattern Row:
Red = Relentless (previous eliminated + sequential = strong trend)
Blue = Paused (previous survived + sequential = trend pause)
Orange = Skip/Chop (skip pattern = reversal likely)
Gray = Early (0-1 eliminations, too early to tell)
Probability Section:
Prob Already In: Percentage chance that HOD/LOD has already been set
Color coding:
Green (>75%) = High confidence extreme is in, FADE
Yellow (45-75%) = Moderate confidence
Red (<45%) = Low confidence extreme is in, CONTINUATION likely
Sample Size: Shows how many historical occurrences match this exact state (n=XXX)
Larger samples = higher confidence
Most common states have n=500-2,000+
Current: Which candle currently holds HOD/LOD
Pattern Guide Section:
Appears when you have 2+ eliminations. Provides interpretation:
📈 Paused: Trend has paused, 2pm more likely to set extreme
📈 Relentless: Breaking higher/lower, continuation expected
📈 Skip/Chop: Choppy pattern, next session likely
Same for lows with 📉 symbol.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: High Conviction Fade Setup
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 0 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: None (no eliminations yet)
Prev Candle: Survived
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 68.9% (n=582)
LOD Prob Already In: 73.6% (n=785)
Interpretation: Range is likely complete. Fade extremes. With 0 eliminations and 70%+ probability, this is a high-conviction mean reversion signal.
Example 2: Strong Continuation Signal
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 3 (both HOD/LOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Eliminated (relentless)
Table shows:
HOD Prob Already In: 29.8% (n=1,758)
LOD Prob Already In: 34.6% (n=1,451)
Pattern: 📈 Relentless / 📉 Relentless
Interpretation: Strong trend day. Only 30-35% chance range is complete. Look for breakouts in direction of trend. 10AM and 2PM likely to extend range.
Example 3: Pattern Structure Edge
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Skip (orange background)
Prev Candle: Eliminated vs Alternative State:
Eliminations: 2 (HOD)
Structure: Sequential
Prev Candle: Survived
Result: Skip pattern shows 64% chance 10AM participates vs 36% for sequential+survived. Skip pattern = 2X more likely to see 10AM high. This structural edge is unique to this indicator.
Example 4: Different HOD vs LOD Patterns
State at 10AM Checkpoint:
HOD: 2 eliminations, Sequential, Previous Eliminated (Relentless) = 46.7% in
LOD: 2 eliminations, Skip, Previous Eliminated (Choppy) = 48.4% in
Interpretation: Highs show relentless uptrend but lows show choppy behavior. This divergence suggests potential for upside continuation but with volatility. Not a clean trend day.
KEY CHECKPOINT STATISTICS (DERIVED FROM 10-YEAR DATASET)
10PM Checkpoint (After 6PM):
Very early in day
13.5% HOD in, 21.3% LOD in
Most likely outcome: Range extends into 6AM/10AM
2AM Checkpoint (After 10PM):
Still early
With 0 elims: 22-31% in (balanced)
With 1 elim: 8-12% in (strong trend signal)
6AM Checkpoint (After 2AM) - Critical Decision Point:
With 0 elims: 40-47% in (balanced, could go either way)
With 2 elims: 18-22% in (strong trend into 6AM/10AM)
Most likely outcome: 10AM sets extremes (~38-40%)
10AM Checkpoint (After 6AM) - Highest Conviction:
With 0 elims: 69-74% in → FADE (high confidence)
With 3 elims: 30-35% in → BUY/SELL continuation
This is THE money checkpoint for high-probability setups
2PM Checkpoint (After 10AM) - Maximum Fade Conviction:
With 0-3 elims: 67-95% in → FADE strongly
With 4 elims: 49-61% in (monster trend, weaker fade)
2PM is primarily a mean reversion session
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING DATA
All probabilities are derived from analysis of:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Methodology: Real-time checkpoint analysis with zero forward-looking bias
Why NQ-Specific?
Each futures contract has unique:
Session characteristics (6AM in NQ shows 60-64% curve behavior, other sessions differ)
Timing patterns (NQ's 10AM session has 67-74% immediate takeouts)
Volatility profiles (NQ 2PM shows 56% bullish bias vs ES shows different bias)
Using this indicator on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce inaccurate results because the probability tables are NQ-specific.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Zero Forward-Looking Bias: State locks at checkpoint moments. Traditional indicators recalculate continuously, introducing bias. This indicator freezes probabilities at the exact moment a 4H candle closes.
Three-Factor State System: Combines elimination count, structure pattern, and previous candle status. Most indicators only track one dimension. This multi-factor approach provides 2X+ probability differentials.
Separate HOD/LOD Tracking: Highs and lows can have different patterns simultaneously (relentless high with choppy low). This indicator tracks them separately for precision.
Pattern Structure Analysis: Distinguishes between sequential and skip patterns, a concept not found in standard indicators. Skip patterns show mean reversion while sequential shows continuation.
10+ Year Statistical Foundation: Every probability is backed by hundreds to thousands of historical occurrences (sample sizes shown in table). Not based on theories or assumptions.
Checkpoint-Specific Probabilities: Different checkpoints have different probability profiles. 10AM checkpoint with 0 eliminations = 70%+ fade. 6AM checkpoint with same state = 40%+ fade. Context matters.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Wait for Checkpoint
The table will show "⏳ PRE-CHECKPOINT" until a 4H candle closes. Probabilities are only valid at checkpoint moments.
Step 2: Read the State
Check the three factors:
How many eliminations?
Sequential or skip?
Previous candle eliminated or survived?
Step 3: Check Probability
Look at "Prob Already In" percentage:
>75% (Green) = High confidence extreme is set, fade
45-75% (Yellow) = Moderate confidence, use other confirmation
<45% (Red) = Low confidence extreme is set, continuation likely
Step 4: Check Sample Size
Larger sample (n=1,000+) = higher confidence
Smaller sample (n=50-200) = use caution, edge is real but less robust
Step 5: Consider Pattern
Read the pattern guide:
Relentless = trend continuing
Paused = trend stalled, mean reversion
Skip/Chop = reversal/range likely
Step 6: Compare HOD vs LOD
If both show similar patterns = cleaner signal
If divergent patterns = complex day, be cautious
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 10AM and 2PM checkpoints - These have the highest conviction signals
Combine with price action - Don't fade blindly at 90% probability if price is breaking out strongly
Larger samples = better edges - Prioritize setups with n=500+
Watch for pattern divergence - When HOD and LOD show different patterns, expect complexity
Remember session characteristics:
6AM = THE CURVE SESSION (60-64% mean reversion when Q2 breaks Q1)
10AM = THE MONEY SESSION (67-74% immediate takeouts, highest conviction)
2PM = THE FADE SESSION (67-95% extremes already in)
SETTINGS
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Display colored boxes for each 4H candle
Show HOD/LOD Lines - Display horizontal lines at current extremes
Show Checkpoint Analysis - Display probability table
Table Position - Choose where to place the checkpoint table
Table Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
Colors - Customize box colors for each session
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - Do not use on other instruments
Not a standalone system - Use as confluence with your strategy
Historical data - Past performance doesn't guarantee future results
Sample size variance - Some states have smaller samples, use judgment
Requires understanding - Read this guide fully before trading with this tool
FINAL NOTES
This indicator represents 10+ years of NQ futures data distilled into actionable, real-time probabilities. The checkpoint methodology ensures zero forward-looking bias, while the three-factor state system provides granular edge that traditional indicators miss.
Remember: This tool provides probabilities, not certainties. Trade with proper risk management, and use this as one input in your decision-making process.
Historical Returns [BigBeluga]🔵 OVERVIEW
The Historical Returns indicator visualizes daily and monthly return data to help traders assess seasonal performance and volatility behavior. It provides a clean and informative dashboard showing the current month’s daily return bubbles, monthly return curves, and a snapshot of the current month and year performance. This tool is ideal for spotting recurring return patterns and understanding the broader profitability context of a symbol.
🔵 CONCEPTS
Daily Return Bubbles: Each trading day is analyzed for its return percentage, and plotted as a bubble with size proportional to the return magnitude.
Monthly Performance Curves: Average or cumulative returns are calculated and plotted to show how the current month is performing relative to historical averages.
Current Year Return: Current year performance as a single return value, giving traders context on long-term profitability.
Current Month Average Return: Current month average performance as a single return value, giving traders context on short-term profitability.
Extreme Return Labels: Optionally highlights daily returns above +4% or below -4% with labeled percentages for spike recognition.
🔵 FEATURES
Shows daily return bubbles (1%–7%+), color-coded by direction.
Labels monthly returns with the month name and percentage value.
Displays a performance dashboard with:
Daily return heatmap for the current month.
Average return for the current month.
Year-to-date return.
Toggle between average and cumulative modes for monthly return curves.
Clearly marks days with abnormal return spikes using optional labels.
Clean fallback warning if not on a daily chart ("⚠️USE DAILY TIMEFRAME").
Custom color themes for bullish and bearish values.
🔵 HOW TO USE
Use the monthly return curve to compare how the current month is performing against historical averages.
Look for clusters of positive or negative bubbles as signals of strong directional weeks.
Watch extreme return labels for volatility spikes or catalyst days.
Use year-to-date return to assess how the asset is trending in the broader macro cycle.
Combine with other BigBeluga tools to align trades with historically favorable periods.
🔵 CONCLUSION
Historical Returns is your visual companion for return analytics — helping you identify profitable months, detect volatility surges, and understand historical seasonality at a glance. With a clean dashboard and insightful overlays, this tool supports better timing and improved statistical edge in both short- and long-term trades.
4H Candle Curves4H Candle Curves - Detailed User Guide
OVERVIEW
This indicator reveals curve vs continuation behavior in NQ Futures by analyzing how price responds after breaking the first-hour range. Based on 10+ years of statistical analysis (2013-2025, 3,136+ trading days), it identifies which 4-hour sessions exhibit mean reversion (curve) behavior versus trend continuation when Q2 (second hour) breaks Q1 (first hour) extremes.
⚠️ IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically designed for NQ FUTURES ONLY. All curve probabilities and statistics were derived from a decade-long dataset of NQ 1-minute bars. Using this on other instruments will produce inaccurate results.
CORE CONCEPT: THE CURVE
What is a "Curve"?
A curve occurs when price breaks out of the first hour's range in Q2 (hour 2), but then reverses direction in the second half (Q3+Q4) to make a new extreme on the opposite side.
Curve Example (Upside Break → Downside Reversal):
Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050
Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100
Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price curves back down, makes new LOW below 25,000
Result: Q2 broke high, but second half curved back to make new low below Q1 = CURVE
What is "Continuation"?
Continuation occurs when Q2 breaks Q1 range and the second half extends further in the same direction.
Continuation Example (Upside Break → Further Upside):
Q1 (Hour 1): Price establishes range 25,000 - 25,050
Q2 (Hour 2): Price breaks ABOVE Q1 high, reaches 25,100
Q3+Q4 (Hours 3-4): Price continues higher, makes new HIGH above 25,100
Result: Q2 broke high, second half made new high above Q2 = CONTINUATION
THE CRITICAL DISCOVERY: 6AM IS THE CURVE SESSION
Curve Probabilities by Session:
When Q2 Breaks Q1 HIGH:
6AM: 60.6% curve (new low below Q1) | 38.5% continuation
2AM: 38.4% curve | 46.7% continuation (balanced)
10AM: 17.2% curve | 60.4% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias
6PM: 29.6% curve | 59.0% continuation
10PM: 27.5% curve | 55.1% continuation
When Q2 Breaks Q1 LOW:
6AM: 64.4% curve (new high above Q1) | 35.0% continuation ← HIGHEST curve
2AM: 42.8% curve | 43.3% continuation (balanced)
10AM: 16.7% curve | 51.6% continuation ← STRONG continuation bias
6PM: 33.7% curve | 51.1% continuation
10PM: 33.1% curve | 48.6% continuation
Key Insight:
6AM is THE ONLY SESSION with >60% curve probability in both directions. This makes it a uniquely exploitable mean reversion session. When Q2 breaks Q1 range during 6AM, expect the second half to curve back 60-64% of the time.
10AM shows the opposite: Strong continuation bias (60% when Q2 breaks high, 52% when Q2 breaks low). 10AM breakouts tend to follow through.
HOW IT WORKS: THE QUARTER SYSTEM
The Six 4-Hour Candles (EST):
Each trading day (6pm-5pm) is divided into six 4-hour periods:
6PM (18:00-22:00) - Evening/Globex open | Blue box
10PM (22:00-02:00) - Asia session | Purple box
2AM (02:00-06:00) - Early London | Orange box
6AM (06:00-10:00) - Late London + NY Open | Green box ← THE CURVE SESSION
10AM (10:00-14:00) - NY Morning | Red box ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION
2PM (14:00-17:00) - NY Afternoon | Yellow box (3 hours only)
The Four Quarters:
Each 4-hour candle (except 2PM) is divided into four 1-hour quarters:
Q1 (Hour 1, minutes 0-60): Establishes initial range
Q2 (Hour 2, minutes 60-120): Tests Q1 range - breaks or holds?
Q3 (Hour 3, minutes 120-180): Second half begins
Q4 (Hour 4, minutes 180-240): Second half completes
2PM candle only has 3 hours (14:00-17:00), so quarters are adjusted accordingly.
The Three-Step Analysis:
STEP 1: Q1 Establishes Range
The first hour sets the high and low for the session. This becomes the reference range.
STEP 2: Q2 Break Detection
The indicator monitors whether Q2 (hour 2) breaks above Q1 high or below Q1 low.
STEP 3: Second Half Response
Once Q2 breaks Q1 range, the indicator tracks what happens in Q3+Q4:
Does price CURVE back to make new extreme on opposite side?
Does price CONTINUE to make new extreme in same direction?
Or does price stay within the established range?
VISUAL ELEMENTS EXPLAINED
1. 4-Hour Candle Boxes
Colored boxes display the high-to-low range of each 4H candle:
Blue = 6PM (evening session start)
Purple = 10PM (Asia session)
Orange = 2AM (early London)
Green = 6AM ← THE CURVE SESSION (watch for mean reversion)
Red = 10AM ← THE CONTINUATION SESSION (trend follow-through)
Yellow = 2PM (afternoon close, 3 hours only)
2. Quarter Separator Lines
Vertical dotted lines mark the boundaries between quarters (1H, 2H, 3H marks). This helps you see:
When Q1 ends (after 1 hour)
When Q2 ends / second half begins (after 2 hours)
When Q3 ends (after 3 hours)
3. Candle Name Labels
At the 2-hour mark (Q2/Q3 boundary), a label shows:
Candle name (e.g., "6am")
Directional indicator:
🔼 = Q2 broke Q1 HIGH
🔽 = Q2 broke Q1 LOW
⚠️ = Q2 broke BOTH Q1 high and low (extended range)
No symbol = Q2 stayed within Q1 range
THE LIVE STATUS TABLE
Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-right), this table shows real-time analysis of the current 4H candle.
Header Row:
"LIVE: CANDLE" - Shows which 4H session you're currently in
Quarter Row:
"Quarter: Q1/Q2/Q3/Q4 (Hour X)" - Shows which quarter you're currently forming
STATUS Section:
The status updates dynamically based on what has happened:
During Q1-Q2 (First Half):
"⏳ Q1 Building..." - First hour forming, range being established
"⏳ Q2 Building..." - Second hour in progress, Q2 within Q1 range so far
"🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH" - Q2 has broken above Q1 high
"🔽 Q2 Broke Q1 LOW" - Q2 has broken below Q1 low
"⚠️ Q2 Broke BOTH Q1 Extremes" - Q2 extended range in both directions
During Q3-Q4 (Second Half):
"✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half reversed to opposite side
"✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" - Q2 broke one direction, second half extended further same direction
"⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" - Q2 broke Q1, waiting to see if curve or continuation
"📊 No Q2 Break Occurred" - Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no curve/continuation setup)
EXPECTATION Section:
Shows the probabilities based on the current state:
When Q2 breaks Q1 high in 6AM:
EXPECT 2nd half:
CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%
CONT (high > Q2): 38.5%
This tells you there's a 60.6% chance the second half will curve back to make a new low below Q1, versus 38.5% chance it continues higher above Q2.
When curve/continuation is confirmed:
Q2 broke high → 2nd half made new LOW below Q1
Curve: 60.6%
Shows what actually happened and the historical probability.
Color Coding:
Purple background = Curve confirmed (mean reversion occurred)
Green background = Continuation confirmed (upside extension)
Red background = Continuation confirmed (downside extension)
Blue background = Second half in progress, watching
Yellow background = No Q2 break (no setup)
Gray background = Still in first half, building
THE CURVE REFERENCE TABLE
Located in your chosen corner (default: bottom-left), this table provides a quick reference for all sessions.
Table Structure:
TOP SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 HIGH"
BOTTOM SECTION: "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW"
How to Read:
"Curve" column = % of time second half makes new extreme on OPPOSITE side
"Cont" column = % of time second half makes new extreme in SAME direction
"Winner" column = Which behavior is more likely
Purple highlight = Curve is the winner (higher %)
Blue highlight = Continuation is the winner
🔥 symbol = Strong edge (>60%)
Quick Reference Usage:
You're in 10AM session, Q2 just broke Q1 high. Look at top section, 10AM row:
Curve: 17.2%
Cont: 60.4%
Winner: CONT
Interpretation: 10AM breakouts tend to follow through. Only 17% chance of curving back. Trade with the break, not against it.
PRACTICAL TRADING EXAMPLES
Example 1: Perfect 6AM Curve Setup
Scenario:
6AM candle in progress
7:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,000 - 18,050
7:30 AM: Price breaks above 18,050, reaches 18,075 (Q2 broke Q1 high)
Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH"
Expectation: "CURVE (low < Q1): 60.6%"
Trading Decision:
Even though price broke to new highs, the 60.6% curve probability suggests looking for short opportunities expecting price to curve back below 18,000 in Q3-Q4.
Typical Outcome:
8:15 AM (Q3): Price starts declining
9:15 AM (Q4): Price makes new low at 17,990
Result: ✓ CURVE CONFIRMED
Example 2: 10AM Continuation Signal
Scenario:
10AM candle in progress
11:00 AM: Q1 ends, range is 18,100 - 18,150
11:45 AM: Price breaks above 18,150, reaches 18,180 (Q2 broke Q1 high)
Live table shows: "🔼 Q2 Broke Q1 HIGH"
Expectation: "CONT (high > Q2): 60.4%"
Trading Decision:
With 60.4% continuation probability, breakout likely to follow through. Look for long opportunities expecting extension above 18,180 in Q3-Q4.
Typical Outcome:
12:30 PM (Q3): Price continues higher to 18,200
1:15 PM (Q4): Price makes new high at 18,225
Result: ✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED
Example 3: Using Reference Table During Live Trading
You see Q2 breaking Q1 low during 2AM session:
Quick reference check:
2AM row, "When Q2 BREAKS Q1 LOW" section
Curve: 42.8% | Cont: 43.3% | Winner: Balanced
Interpretation: This is a coin flip - 2AM session is balanced when Q2 breaks low. Don't force a directional bias. Wait for second half price action confirmation or skip the setup.
Example 4: No Setup Scenario
Scenario:
6AM candle, Q2 ends at 8:00 AM
Q2 stayed within Q1 range (no break above or below)
Live table shows: "📊 No Q2 Break Occurred"
Trading Decision:
No curve/continuation setup exists. This analysis only applies when Q2 breaks Q1 range. Monitor for different strategies or wait for next 4H candle.
UNDERSTANDING THE UNDERLYING METHODOLOGY
Data Foundation:
Instrument: NQ Futures (E-mini NASDAQ-100)
Timeframe: 1-minute bars for precise quarter tracking
Period: January 2013 - December 2025
Sample: 3,136+ complete trading days
Total 4H Candles Analyzed: ~18,800+ individual sessions
Analysis Process:
For each 4H candle in the dataset:
Calculate Q1 high and low (first hour range)
Track whether Q2 breaks Q1 high, Q1 low, both, or neither
When Q2 breaks Q1 range, measure second half response:
Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q1? (curve when Q2 broke high)
Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q1? (curve when Q2 broke low)
Did Q3+Q4 make new high above Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke high)
Did Q3+Q4 make new low below Q2? (continuation when Q2 broke low)
Calculate percentages for each session
Why NQ-Specific?
Different futures contracts exhibit different intraday personality:
NQ (NASDAQ):
Tech-heavy, volatility-prone
6AM shows extreme curve behavior (60-64%) due to NY Open reversal tendency
10AM shows strong continuation (60%) as trends establish
ES (S&P 500) would show different probabilities because:
Lower volatility than NQ
Different institutional participation patterns
Different response to macro events
The indicator's probabilities are calibrated specifically to NQ behavior patterns. Using it on ES, RTY, or other instruments will produce misleading signals.
ORIGINALITY & INNOVATION
What Makes This Indicator Unique:
Quarter-Based Curve Analysis: Unlike traditional indicators that only identify breakouts, this tracks what happens after the breakout. The curve vs continuation framework is novel and provides directional edge.
Session-Specific Behavior: Recognizes that 6AM behaves fundamentally differently than 10AM. Most indicators apply the same logic across all sessions. This indicator provides session-specific probabilities.
Statistical Validation: Every probability shown is backed by 10+ years of data (2,900+ candles per session). Not based on theory or discretionary observation.
Real-Time Quarter Tracking: Precisely identifies which quarter you're in and what stage of the pattern is forming. Provides forward-looking probabilities based on current state.
The 6AM Discovery: The 60-64% curve probability in 6AM is a quantified, repeatable edge that contradicts traditional "breakout = continuation" assumptions. This session exhibits mean reversion characteristics that most traders miss.
Dual-Direction Analysis: Tracks both upside breaks (Q2 > Q1 high) and downside breaks (Q2 < Q1 low) separately, as they can have different probabilities.
Visual Quarter System: The combination of colored boxes, quarter separators, and real-time labels provides instant visual understanding of pattern stage and expected behavior.
HOW TO USE THIS INDICATOR
Step 1: Identify Current 4H Candle
Check which colored box you're in and what session it represents.
Step 2: Wait for Q2 to Complete
The setup doesn't exist until Q2 (hour 2) breaks Q1 range. Monitor the live table.
Step 3: Check Q2 Break Status
Did Q2 break Q1 high? Q1 low? Both? Or neither?
Step 4: Consult Reference Table
Look up current session in curve reference table. What's the probability?
Step 5: Apply Session-Specific Strategy
For 6AM (60-64% curve):
Q2 breaks high → Expect curve back for new low
Q2 breaks low → Expect curve back for new high
Strategy: FADE the Q2 break, look for reversal entries in Q3-Q4
For 10AM (52-60% continuation):
Q2 breaks high → Expect continuation higher
Q2 breaks low → Expect continuation lower
Strategy: TRADE WITH the Q2 break, look for continuation entries in Q3-Q4
For 2AM (38-43% curve, 43-47% continuation):
Balanced probabilities
Strategy: Wait for Q3 price action to confirm direction, or skip
For 6PM/10PM (50-59% continuation):
Moderate continuation bias
Strategy: Lean with the break but use tight stops
Step 6: Monitor Live Status
Watch the live table for confirmation:
"✓ CURVE CONFIRMED" = Mean reversion occurred
"✓ CONTINUATION CONFIRMED" = Follow-through occurred
"⏳ 2nd Half In Progress" = Still developing
BEST PRACTICES
Focus on 6AM for curve trades - This is THE high-probability mean reversion session
Focus on 10AM for continuation trades - This is THE high-probability breakout session
Be cautious with 2AM - Balanced probabilities mean lower edge
Use quarter separators - Enter trades early in Q3 after Q2 break, don't wait for Q4
Combine with price action - Don't blindly fade 6AM or follow 10AM; wait for confirming price structure
Respect the 60% rule - 6AM curve happens 60% of time, which means 40% it doesn't. Manage risk accordingly
Watch for "No Q2 Break" - If Q2 doesn't break Q1, this analysis doesn't apply
Consider overnight context - If 6AM opens with huge gap, curve probability may be affected
SETTINGS & CUSTOMIZATION
Display Settings:
Show 4H Candle Boxes - Toggle colored range boxes
Box Colors - Customize color for each session
Show Quarter Separators - Show/hide 1H, 2H, 3H lines
Show Candle Name Labels - Show/hide session labels at 2H mark
Separator Line Style - Solid/Dashed/Dotted
Max Historical Candles - How many past 4H candles to display (1-50)
Table Settings:
Show Live Status Table - Toggle real-time analysis table
Show Curve Reference Table - Toggle probability reference table
Table Positions - Place tables in any corner
Table Text Size - Tiny/Small/Normal
LIMITATIONS & DISCLAIMERS
NQ FUTURES ONLY - All probabilities are NQ-specific, do not use on other instruments
Requires Q2 break - No curve/continuation setup exists if Q2 stays within Q1 range
Probabilities, not certainties - 60% means it happens 6 out of 10 times, not every time
Lower timeframe noise - 1-minute tracking can be choppy, consider using 5min+ for entries
Gap days - Large overnight gaps may affect curve/continuation probabilities
Not standalone - Use as confluence with your strategy, not as sole decision factor
Historical performance - Past statistics don't guarantee future results
WHY THE CURVE CONCEPT MATTERS
Traditional trading wisdom says: "Breakout = Continuation"
This indicator proves that's not always true. Specifically, during the 6AM session (late London + NY Open), when Q2 breaks the Q1 range, price curves back to the opposite extreme 60-64% of the time.
This creates a unique exploitable edge:
Most breakout traders go LONG when Q2 breaks Q1 high
But in 6AM, 60.6% of the time, price curves back down for new low
Shorting the breakout (counter-intuitive) is the higher-probability trade
The 10AM session shows the opposite:
Breakouts in 10AM tend to follow through (52-60%)
Traditional "trade the breakout" strategy works better here
By knowing which session you're in, you can adapt your strategy to match the session's personality.
FINAL NOTES
This indicator distills 10+ years of NQ intraday behavior into actionable, session-specific probabilities. The discovery that 6AM exhibits 60-64% curve behavior while 10AM exhibits 52-60% continuation behavior provides a statistical edge for mean reversion and trend-following traders respectively.
The highest-probability setups:
6AM Q2 break → FADE (60-64% edge for curve)
10AM Q2 break → FOLLOW (52-60% edge for continuation)
2AM = SKIP (balanced probabilities, no clear edge)
Master the 6AM curve and 10AM continuation first. These two sessions provide the clearest statistical edges.
Remember: Trade with proper risk management. This tool provides probabilities based on historical behavior, not predictions of future performance.
Position Sizing Calculator_V1Added a Table Text Size setting so you can control how big the text appears in the on-chart table.
New input: Table Text Size with options Tiny / Small / Normal / Large / Huge
Seasonal Strategies V1Seasonal Strategies V1 is a rule-based futures seasonality framework built around predefined calendar windows per asset.
The strategy automatically detects the current symbol and activates long or short trading phases strictly based on historically observed seasonal tendencies. All entries and exits are fully time-based — no indicators, no predictions, no discretionary input.
Key Features
Asset-specific seasonal windows (MMDD-based)
Automatic long and short activation
Fully time-based entries and exits
One position at a time (no pyramiding)
Clean chart visualization using subtle background shading
No indicators, no filters, no curve fitting
Philosophy:
This strategy is designed as a structural trading tool, not a forecasting model.
It focuses on when a market historically shows seasonal tendencies — not why or how far price might move.
Seasonal Strategies V1 intentionally keeps the chart clean and minimal, making it suitable as a baseline framework for research, portfolio-style seasonal approaches, or further extensions in later versions.
Intended Use:
Futures and commodity markets
Seasonality research and testing
Systematic, calendar-driven strategies
Educational and analytical purposes
Disclaimer
This script is provided for educational and research purposes only.
Past seasonal tendencies do not guarantee future performance.
Risk management, position sizing, and portfolio decisions are the responsibility of the user.
Ultimate Lines Statistical Backtest @MaxMaseratiUltimate lines (MAs/MACD/VWAP,DWA etc..) Statistical Backtest
This is a comprehensive statistical backtesting tool that allows traders to objectively measure the performance of 27+ different trading lines across multiple timeframes and sessions. Instead of guessing which moving averages, VWAPs, or volume levels actually work for your trading style, this indicator provides hard data showing exactly how price behaves around each line at specific times of day.
The indicator solves a critical problem: most lines create whipsaws in choppy markets, but knowing which lines have the highest continuation rates vs reversal rates at specific session times helps you avoid false signals and focus on setups with proven statistical edges.
🎯 LINES YOU CAN TEST
MMM Core Lines:
Mid MA: Trend velocity tracker using simple moving average
MMPD Line: Premium/Discount change-of-direction indicator
Fair Value Golden Ratio: 0.618 equilibrium level between premium and discount zones
Volume-Based Lines:
VWAP Daily/Weekly: Volume-weighted average price (daily and weekly sessions)
Volume POC Multi-TF: Multi-timeframe Point of Control (highest volume price level)
Volume POC Weekly: Weekly momentum pivot based on volume distribution
Range Midpoints:
Range Midpoint 50: 50-period high/low midpoint
Range Midpoint 14 TF1/TF2: Configurable timeframe range midpoints with smoothing options
Moving Averages (10 MA Types):
MACD Fast (12) / Signal (26): Standard MACD moving averages
Fast MA 20 / Mid MA 50 / Slow MA 200: Classic trend-following averages
Available MA Types: SMA, EMA, WMA, HMA, DEMA, TEMA, LSMA, KAMA, ALMA, VWMA
Volatility Indicators:
MVM Upper/Lower Bands: Momentum-based volatility bands with adaptive option
HVC Bullish/Bearish: High Volume Candle support/resistance levels
Ultimate Suite Advanced Lines:
DWAP (Delta Weighted Average Price): Directional volume-weighted price with upper/lower bands
HVN (High Volume Node): High-frequency trading node detection
Hybrid Line: Volume-weighted momentum composite
Trend Filter: Two-pole smoothing filter for trend clarity
STL Lines:
iBuSTL / iBeSTL: Internal Bullish/Bearish Structural Trend Liquidity levels
⚙️ HOW TO TEST
Select Lines: Check the boxes for lines you want to analyze (Mid MA, VWAP Daily, Volume POC, etc.)
Choose Times: Enable tracking for specific session times (default: 8:30 AM, 9:30 AM, 10:00 AM, Daily Close - EST)
Set Lookback: Choose how many days of historical data to analyze (default: 60 days)
Enable Pattern Analysis: Turn on "Enable Pattern Analysis" in settings
Wait for Data: The indicator needs 20 bars after each signal time to complete analysis
Review Statistics: Check the statistics table for detailed breakdowns
📈 STATISTICS EXPLAINED
For Each Tracked Time, You'll See:
🟢 Above Selected Lines (X samples):
Continued↑: Price stayed above the lines = bullish continuation
Reversed↓: Price broke below the lines = reversal/rejection
→Kept Going↓: After reversing down, price continued lower (bars 11-20)
→Stalled: After reversing down, price came back up (consolidation)
Neutral: Price didn't make a clear move either way
🔴 Below Selected Lines (X samples):
Continued↓: Price stayed below the lines = bearish continuation
Reversed↑: Price broke above the lines = reversal/support bounce
→Kept Going↑: After reversing up, price continued higher (bars 11-20)
→Stalled: After reversing up, price came back down (consolidation)
Neutral: No clear directional move
⭐ Star Ratings: Show which outcome happens most frequently (best probability)
🔬 HYBRID DETECTION SYSTEM (ADVANCED)
When enabled, the indicator uses a multi-signal composite scoring system that goes beyond simple percentage movements:
Signal A - % Movement Direction (40% weight):
Measures the strength and direction of price movement. Strong directional moves (>0.8%) score higher, while opposite-direction moves score negatively.
Signal B - Inside Candles (30% weight):
Detects true consolidation by counting how many candles close within a defined range. High inside-candle counts indicate choppy, stalled price action rather than clean continuation.
Signal C - Successive Closes (30% weight):
Tracks momentum persistence by counting consecutive closes in the expected direction. Long streaks (6+ bars) indicate strong follow-through, while breaks in the sequence suggest weakness.
Composite Score Classification:
⭐⭐⭐ Strong (75-100 points): All three signals align - high-confidence pattern
⭐⭐ Moderate (50-75 points): Two signals agree - reliable pattern
⭐ Weak (25-50 points): Mixed signals - lower confidence
⚠️ Strong Stalled (0-25 points): Signals show consolidation/reversal
This provides nuanced pattern detection that identifies not just IF a pattern succeeded, but HOW STRONGLY it performed.
💡 INTERPRETING RESULTS
Good Lines Show:
High continuation % when price is above/below (>60% is strong)
Clean "Kept Going" patterns after reversals (>50% indicates reliable rejection)
Low stalled % (less whipsaw/consolidation)
Consistent patterns across multiple times (validates the line's reliability)
Poor Lines Show:
50/50 continuation vs reversal (coin flip = no edge)
High stalled % (lots of whipsaw/false signals)
Inconsistent patterns across different times (unreliable)
Example Interpretation:
9:30 AM - VWAP Daily (120 samples)
🟢 Above:
Continued↑ 75 (62.5%) ⭐ BEST
Reversed↓ 30 (25.0%)
Meaning: When price is above VWAP Daily at 9:30 AM, it continues higher 62.5% of the time - this is a statistically strong bullish signal for that session time.
🎯 PRACTICAL VALUE
Solves the Whipsaw Problem:
Most moving averages and lines work beautifully in trending markets but create endless false signals in choppy, range-bound conditions. By analyzing specific session times and continuation vs reversal patterns, you can:
Identify high-probability setups: Focus on lines that show >60% continuation at your preferred trading times
Avoid weak signals: Skip lines with high stall rates or 50/50 outcomes
Time your entries better: Know which session times produce the cleanest patterns
Combine complementary lines: Stack multiple high-scoring lines for confluence
Adapt to market conditions: Switch to different lines when market structure changes
Real-World Application:
Instead of blindly trading VWAP crosses or MA bounces, you'll have objective data showing: "At 9:30 AM on ES, when price is above Mid MA + VWAP Daily + Volume POC, it continues higher 68% of the time with strong momentum (⭐⭐⭐)." This transforms discretionary guesswork into data-driven decision making.
⚙️ LINE DEFINITIONS
Moving Averages: Smooth price data over X periods to identify trend direction and dynamic support/resistance.
VWAP: Anchored average price weighted by volume - institutional traders' benchmark for "fair value."
Volume POC (Point of Control): Price level with the most traded volume - represents maximum market acceptance.
Fair Value Golden Ratio: Fibonacci 0.618 level between recent premium (high) and discount (low) - equilibrium zone.
DWAP (Delta Weighted): Price average weighted by buying vs selling volume delta - shows directional money flow.
Range Midpoints: Geometric center of recent high/low range - mean reversion pivot.
Volatility Bands: Envelope around momentum lines showing normal price deviation ranges.
HVN (High Volume Node): Automated detection of high-volume price clusters - institutional accumulation/distribution zones.
Note: This indicator is purely for statistical analysis and backtesting. It does not generate trade signals or provide entry/exit recommendations. Use the statistics to inform your own trading decisions and strategy development.
Buy / Sell Volume HeaderBuy / Sell Volume Header
Description
- Buy / Sell Volume Header displays real-time buying and selling volume with percentages in a clean dashboard at the top or bottom of your chart. The indicator calculates buying pressure as volume weighted toward the close relative to the bar's range, and selling pressure as volume weighted toward the high.
- Perfect for day traders and scalpers who need instant visual confirmation of buying vs selling pressure without cluttering their chart with additional panes.
Key Features:
- Real-time buy/sell volume split with percentages
- Customizable lookback period (1 bar for current, or sum multiple bars)
- Adjustable table position (top/bottom, left/center/right)
- Five size options (Tiny to Huge)
- Color-coded: Green (buying volume), Red (selling volume)
- Clean, minimal design that doesn't obstruct price action
Calculation Method:
- Buying Volume = Total Volume × (Close - Low) / (High - Low)
- Selling Volume = Total Volume × (High - Close) / (High - Low)
How to Use:
- Select header location (default: Top Right) and table size (default: Normal). Set lookback period to 1 for current bar only, or higher values to see cumulative volume over multiple bars.
Reading the Display:
- Green Box (Left): Buying volume and percentage of total
- Red Box (Right): Selling volume and percentage of total
- Numbers update in real-time on every tick
Trading Applications:
- Trend Confirmation:
- In uptrends, buying volume should consistently be >60%.
- In downtrends, selling volume should be >60%. Divergences warn of potential reversals.
Breakout Validation:
- Valid breakouts show 70%+ volume in breakout direction.
- Breakouts with <55% directional volume often fail.
Reversal Signals:
- When price makes new high but buying volume drops below 50%, watch for reversal. When price makes new low but selling volume drops below 50%, watch for bounce.
Scalping Entry:
- Enter long when buying volume spikes above 65-70% with price momentum. Enter short when selling volume spikes above 65-70% with price momentum.
Best Practices:
- Use lookback=1 for intraday scalping. Use lookback=3-5 for swing context. Combine with price action for confirmation. Volume percentages work best on liquid instruments (MNQ, MES, stocks with high volume).
NPR21
Disclaimer
The information and publications are not meant to be, and do not constitute, financial, investment, trading, or other types of advice or recommendations supplied or endorsed by TradingView.
Market Entropy [Alpha Extract]A sophisticated information theory-based market analysis system that measures price randomness and structural order using Shannon entropy calculations across price, returns, and volume distributions. Utilizing adaptive percentile-based thresholds and multi-timeframe confirmation, this indicator delivers institutional-grade regime classification distinguishing between structured trending conditions and chaotic ranging environments. The system's composite entropy framework combined with dynamic gradient visualization and MTF alignment validation provides comprehensive market state assessment for optimal strategy selection and risk management.
🔶 Advanced Shannon Entropy Engine
Implements pure information theory methodology using histogram distribution analysis with configurable bin counts to calculate normalized entropy values for price, returns, and volume metrics. The system constructs probability distributions from rolling windows, applies logarithmic entropy calculations, and normalizes against theoretical maximum entropy to produce 0-1 bounded measurements of market randomness and predictability.
float entropy = 0.0
float total = float(len)
for i = 0 to bins - 1
float count = array.get(bin_counts, i)
if count > 0
float prob = count / total
entropy -= prob * math.log(prob) / math.log(2)
float max_entropy = math.log(bins) / math.log(2)
result := entropy / max_entropy
🔶 Adaptive Percentile Threshold System
Features intelligent threshold determination using rolling percentile calculations over configurable calibration periods to establish structure and chaos zones that adapt to changing market characteristics. The system calculates lower percentile for structure threshold (ordered markets) and upper percentile for chaos threshold (random markets), enabling regime classification that adjusts automatically to market evolution.
🔶 Multi-Timeframe Alignment Framework
Implements comprehensive MTF entropy analysis retrieving composite entropy from three configurable higher timeframes with alignment validation logic. The system calculates divergence between current timeframe entropy and higher timeframe values, generating confirmation signals only when all timeframes exhibit entropy agreement within tolerance bands for enhanced signal reliability.
🔶 Three-Regime Classification Engine
Provides sophisticated market state determination classifying conditions as structure (entropy below lower threshold), chaos (entropy above upper threshold), or neutral (entropy between thresholds) with regime strength measurement. The system tracks regime transitions and calculates conviction scores based on distance from thresholds, enabling nuanced assessment of market order versus randomness.
🔶 Composite Entropy Architecture
Combines three distinct entropy measurements weighted by relevance to create unified market randomness metric with exponential smoothing for stability. The system applies 40% weight to price entropy (distribution shape), 35% to return entropy (movement patterns), and 25% to volume entropy (participation randomness), capturing comprehensive market microstructure information.
🔶 Dynamic Gradient Visualization System
Features advanced color blending engine that transitions between primary and secondary colors based on entropy momentum intensity with glow effects for conviction emphasis. The system calculates entropy rate of change, normalizes against recent extremes, and applies smooth color interpolation from secondary to primary hues as momentum intensifies, creating intuitive visual representation of regime strength.
🔶 Intelligent Zone Fill Architecture
Implements multi-layer gradient fills within structure and chaos zones that intensify as entropy moves deeper into extremes, providing immediate visual feedback on regime conviction. The system creates three-tier gradient levels at 33%, 66%, and 100% penetration into zones with progressively lower transparency, emphasizing extreme entropy conditions requiring attention.
🔶 Momentum-Based Divergence Detection
Generates entry signals when entropy crosses below bull divergence level or above bear divergence level, identifying potential regime transitions before price confirmation. The system monitors entropy momentum direction during threshold crossings and validates with MTF alignment, producing high-probability reversal signals at entropy extremes.
🔶 Normalized Display Framework
Provides 0-100 scaled visualization using adaptive min-max normalization calculated from percentile analysis, ensuring consistent visual interpretation across different market conditions and instruments. The system transforms raw composite entropy into normalized space with dynamic thresholds, enabling cross-market and cross-timeframe entropy comparison.
🔶 Regime Strength Measurement
Calculates conviction scores measuring depth of entropy penetration into structure or chaos zones relative to historical ranges, quantifying how definitively current conditions favor trending versus ranging strategies. The system produces 0-1 strength values that modulate visual intensity and can inform position sizing or strategy allocation decisions.
🔶 Performance Optimization Framework
Utilizes efficient array operations with optimized histogram calculations and configurable lookback limits to balance accuracy with computational efficiency. The system includes intelligent caching of percentile calculations and streamlined probability summations for smooth real-time entropy updates across extended historical periods.
🔶 Why Choose Market Entropy ?
This indicator delivers sophisticated market regime analysis through pure information theory methodology measuring actual randomness versus structure in price behavior. Unlike traditional volatility or trend indicators that measure price movement characteristics, Market Entropy quantifies the fundamental predictability of market conditions using Shannon entropy calculations. The system's composite approach combining price, return, and volume distributions with adaptive thresholds, MTF confirmation, and gradient visualization makes it essential for traders seeking objective regime classification to optimize strategy selection. Low entropy (structure zone) indicates ordered, trending conditions favorable for directional strategies, while high entropy (chaos zone) signals random, ranging markets better suited for mean reversion or reduced exposure. The indicator excels at identifying regime transitions before they become obvious in price action across cryptocurrency, forex, and equity markets.
BTC - DCA vs HODL Calculator MatrixBTC - DCA vs. HODL Calculator Matrix | RM
Overview
The BTC - DCA vs. HODL Calculator Matrix is a high-performance telemetry laboratory designed to settle the ultimate debate in Bitcoin accumulation: Is it more efficient to deploy all capital at once ( Lump Sum & HODL ) or utilize a recurring purchase strategy ( DCA )? More importantly, if DCA is the choice, which exact frequency and weekday provides the mathematical edge?
The Calculator Matrix was engineered to solve a critical limitation in the current script ecosystem (at least I couldnt find such an indicator): the inability to compare multiple DCA frequencies and specific calendar days simultaneously within a single dashboard. While developing this tool, I found that existing calculators typically only permit testing one strategy at a time (e.g., a generic "Weekly" buy). This script fills that gap by utilizing a high-performance array-based "Telemetry Engine" to rank dozens of variables—including every individual weekday and specific monthly dates—against a HODL benchmark in real-time. This unique simultaneous comparison allows investors to mathematically identify "Weekday Alpha" across any user-defined timeframe.
Core Philosophy
The script utilizes a Normalized Capital Model . To ensure a true "apples-to-apples" comparison, your total capital (e.g., $10,000) is distributed with mathematical precision across the exact number of entries for each specific strategy. This eliminates the ROI skewing commonly found in basic scripts, ensuring that every strategy is judged on the same total dollar expenditure over the same "Race Track."
Key Features & Analytics
• The Podium System: An automated ranking algorithm that awards 🥇 Gold, 🥈 Silver, and 🥉 Bronze medals to the top three performing strategies. Spoiler: Regular Winner: 1-time HODL (Lump Sum)
• Simultaneous Strategy Testing: Compare Daily, 7 different Weekly days (Mon-Sun), and Monthly dates (1st–28th) all at once.
• Risk Telemetry: Integrated Max Drawdown (MDD) sensors for every strategy, revealing the "Emotional Cost" of your accumulation path.
• Race Track Visuals: Blue dashed "Green Flag" and "Checkered Flag" lines visually define the boundaries of your backtest.
• Dashboard Customization: Use the "Odd/Even" filter to keep the matrix sleek and readable on (nearly) any screen resolution.
The Strategies Tested
• 1-TIME HODL: The benchmark (Lump sum entry on Day 1 - meaning all the capital is deployed at the start date).
• DAILY DCA: High-frequency, day-by-day accumulation (the capital is split amongst the different entries).
• WEEKLY (SUN-SAT): Evaluates which specific day of the week historically captures the best entries (e.g., "Weekend Dips").(The capital is split amongst the different entries).
• MONTHLY (1-28 + END): Tests monthly date performance to optimize for beginning-of-month or end-of-month cycles. (The capital is split amongst the different entries).
Monte Carlo Simulation & Python Research
While this tool allows you to manually check any specific timeframe, manual testing is limited by "Start Date Bias." To find the Universal Winner , I have conducted a Monte Carlo Simulation using 100 random entry dates over the last 5 years via Python/Colab. This research reveals the statistical probability of a day (like Saturday) winning the Gold medal across all market conditions.
Access the Python Heatmap Research in my substack article (link for substack in Bio).
How to Use
1. Set the Race Track: Input Start and End dates in the settings.
2. Fuel the Engine: Set your Total Capital ($).
3. Analyze the Matrix: Compare ROI vs. MAX DD. The goal is not just the highest return, but the best Risk-Adjusted return.
Technical Implementation
This script utilizes an array-based telemetry engine to handle the simultaneous calculation of 30+ independent investment strategies. To ensure computational efficiency and bypass the limitations of standard security-based backtesting, I implemented a custom-built accumulator logic using array.new_float() and array.set() . The core calculation loop ( if in_race and is_new_day ) processes capital deployment on a per-bar basis, utilizing ta.change(time("D")) to ensure entry synchronization with the Daily UTC close. By decoupling the unit accumulation ( u_weekly , u_monthly ) from the final valuation logic ( f_get_stats ), the script maintains a Normalized Capital Model. This ensures that even with complex comparative logic across varying frequencies, the script provides a mathematically rigorous, reproducible result that matches real-world execution at the Daily UTC Midnight close.
Note: All calculations are made on the "close" bar, which means UTC 00:00. By creating a strategy or using the research, make sure to be aware of your time zone
Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. This tool is for educational and research purposes only. Rob Maths is not liable for any financial losses.
Tags:
robmaths, Rob Maths, DCA, HODL, Bitcoin, BTC, Backtest, RiskManagement, Investment, Strategy, Statistics
Contract Size OverviewNever second-guess your position size again. This indicator displays your pre-configured contract or lot sizes for all your frequently traded instruments, so you always know exactly how much to trade the moment you open a chart.
🎯 Why Use This?
Switching between ES futures, crypto pairs, and forex? Each instrument likely has a different position size based on your risk management. Instead of calculating or remembering sizes every time, configure them once and let the indicator do the work.
✨ Key Features
Configure up to 10 symbols with custom position sizes
Full support for fractional sizes (0.1 BTC, 0.25 ETH, etc.)
Automatic symbol detection — works with continuous contracts (ES1!, NQH2025, etc.)
Two display modes: current symbol only or full watchlist
Optional large on-chart label for instant visibility
Fully customizable colors and positioning
📖 How To Use
Add the indicator to your chart
Open settings and enter your traded symbols (ES, NQ, BTCUSDT, etc.)
Set your default position size for each
Switch between charts — your size appears automatically
⚙️ Display Options
Single Mode : Shows only the current chart's position size — clean and minimal
List Mode : Displays all configured symbols with the current one highlighted
Large Label : Optional prominent display directly on the price chart
💡 Perfect For
Futures traders managing multiple contracts (ES, NQ, CL, GC)
Crypto traders with fractional position sizes
Anyone who trades multiple instruments with different risk allocations
Traders who want to eliminate sizing mistakes when switching markets
⚠️ Note
This is an informational overlay only. It does not execute trades or connect to any broker.
Buy & Hold Compounded ValueBuy & Hold Compounded Value
This indicator calculates the cumulative compounded value of a buy-and-hold investment from the instrument’s inception. Starting from a user-defined initial investment (default $1000), it compounds returns using monthly price changes and displays the current portfolio value in the TradingView status line only.
Designed for use on monthly charts, it provides a clean, clutter-free way to evaluate long-term performance without adding any visuals to the chart.
Smart Money Confluence Heatmap [PhenLabs]📊 Smart Money Confluence Heatmap
Version: Pine Script™ v6
📌 Description
The Smart Money Confluence Heatmap is a professional‑grade Smart Money Concepts indicator designed to identify high‑probability institutional trading zones. It merges multiple advanced market factors into a single confluence score, allowing traders to focus only on areas that matter. By synthesizing Fair Value Gaps, Order Blocks, Liquidity Sweeps, Volume Strength, and Market Structure, this script removes subjective bias and replaces it with data‑driven confirmation.
🚀 Points of Innovation
Unified confluence scoring system combining five institutional concepts
Adaptive ATR‑based zone sizing for volatility‑adjusted precision
Automatic trend and structure alignment scoring
Volume‑validated Order Blocks and Liquidity Sweeps
Probability‑ranked zones instead of static levels
🔧 Core Components
Fair Value Gap detection with imbalance strength scoring
Order Block identification confirmed by displacement and volume
Liquidity sweep analysis using wick depth and volume expansion
Volume strength modeling for accumulation and distribution phases
Market structure confirmation using BOS and directional bias
🔥 Key Features
Confluence heatmap zones graded by bullish and bearish probability
Minimum score filtering to remove low‑quality setups
Automatic risk‑to‑reward based TP and SL projections
Entry alerts when price taps validated institutional zones
🎨 Visualization
Color‑graded heatmap zones representing probability strength
Percentage score labels with component icons
On‑chart dashboard displaying market bias and structure state
✅ Best Use Cases
Liquidity sweep reversals at key structure levels
Trend‑aligned pullbacks into institutional zones
Intraday and swing trading using confluence confirmation
⚠️ Limitations
Not designed for low‑liquidity or extremely ranging markets
Confluence does not guarantee outcomes and requires risk management
💡 What Makes This Unique
Objective probability scoring instead of subjective SMC interpretation
Multi‑layer institutional confirmation in a single indicator
Built for traders who demand clarity, not chart clutter
💡 Note:
This indicator is for educational purposes only and should always be used alongside proper risk management and higher‑timeframe context.
Correlation with BTCIt can be used to observe the correlation between the returns of various assets and Bitcoin.
可用來觀測各資產與比特幣的報酬率相關性
Half Closing CandleHalf Closing Candle
This indicator identifies candles whose closing price falls within the upper or lower half of the candle range, measured from the midpoint relative to the candle’s open. It helps traders quickly spot candles that close toward the open or high/low extremes, providing insight into momentum, indecision, or potential reversal areas.
The script highlights these candles with a subtle, non-intrusive overlay directly on the chart, without altering candle wicks or overall price representation, ensuring visual clarity and professional presentation.
ETH Trading bot H1 Money maker i dont know what i did but it is looking good ; make sure you arent in a trade before you start the bot
SNIPER ORB V4SNIPER ORB V4
### What It Does
Draws 5/15/30 minute Opening Range Breakout levels with confirmation patterns.
### Session Times
| Session | Hours (ET) |
|---------|------------|
| London | 3:00 - 9:30 |
| New York | 9:30 - 17:00 |
### Levels Drawn
| Level | Color Default | Purpose |
|-------|---------------|---------|
| 5m ORB H/L | Blue | Scalp levels |
| 15m ORB H/L | Cyan | Swing levels |
| 30m ORB H/L | Purple | **Primary levels** |
| Targets 1x-3x | Green/Red | Profit targets |
### Signals
| Signal | Meaning | Priority |
|--------|---------|----------|
| `ORB↑` | Confirmed breakout up | ⭐⭐ |
| `ORB↓` | Confirmed breakout down | ⭐⭐ |
| `RT↑` | Retest long entry | ⭐⭐⭐ **BEST** |
| `RT↓` | Retest short entry | ⭐⭐⭐ **BEST** |
| `FVG↑` | FVG zone long | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| `FVG↓` | FVG zone short | ⭐⭐⭐ |
| `ABS` | Absorption (caution) | ⚠️ Warning |
| `FK!` | Fakeout detected | ❌ Avoid |
### FVG Zones (Blue Boxes)
- **Bullish FVG** = Gap below price → Support zone
- **Bearish FVG** = Gap above price → Resistance zone
- **Best Entry** = Price touches FVG + Engulfing candle
### Bar Colors
| Color | Meaning |
|-------|---------|
| Bright Green | Bullish breakout confirmed |
| Bright Red | Bearish breakout confirmed |
| Light Green | Bullish retest entry |
| Light Red | Bearish retest entry |
### Info Table Key
| Field | Green = Good | Yellow/Orange = Caution |
|-------|--------------|-------------------------|
| Volume | HIGH VOL | Normal |
| Body | STRONG (70%+) | Normal/Weak |
| Status | BROKE HIGH/LOW | IN RANGE |
### Quick Trade Plan
```
LONG:
1. Wait for 30m ORB to complete
2. Watch for ORB↑ breakout
3. WAIT for pullback to ORB High
4. Enter on RT↑ or FVG↑ signal
5. SL = Below 30m ORB Low
6. TP = Target 1x or 2x
SHORT:
1. Wait for 30m ORB to complete
2. Watch for ORB↓ breakout
3. WAIT for pullback to ORB Low
4. Enter on RT↓ or FVG↓ signal
5. SL = Above 30m ORB High
6. TP = Target 1x or 2x
```
---
Global Macro Scanner & Relative PerformanceDescription: This indicator is an all-in-one Macro Dashboard that allows traders to track money flow across major global asset classes in real-time. It combines a floating data table with a normalized percentage-performance chart.
Features:
Macro Dashboard (Table): Displays the current value, daily % change, and status (Inflow/Outflow) for 9 key economic sectors:
US M2 Supply: Tracks monetary inflation/tightening.
DXY (US Dollar): Currency strength.
Bonds (AGG): US Aggregate Bond market.
Stocks (VT): Total World Stock Index.
Real Estate (VNQ): Vanguard Real Estate ETF.
Commodities: Oil (WTI), Gold, and Silver.
Crypto: Total Crypto Market Cap.
Relative Performance Chart (Lines): Instead of plotting raw prices (which have vastly different scales), this script plots the Percentage Return relative to a baseline.
Lookback Period: You can set a lookback (default 100 bars). The script sets the price 100 bars ago as "0%" and plots how much each asset has gained or lost since then.
Comparison: This allows you to visually see which assets are outperforming or underperforming relative to each other over the same time period.
Visual Aids:
Dynamic Labels: Each line is tagged with a label at the current candle so you can identify assets without needing a legend.
Colors: Each asset has a distinct, fixed color for consistency between the table and the chart.
How to use:
Add the script to your chart.
Adjust the "Lookback" setting in the inputs to change the starting point of the comparison (e.g., set it to the start of the year to see Year-to-Date performance).
Use the dashboard to spot daily money flow rotation (e.g., Money moving out of Stocks and into Gold).
V-Max: Crypto Scaling & Professional Risk Calculator (Public EdiOverview
The V-Max Crypto Scaling & Risk Calculator is a technical risk-management dashboard designed to automate the mathematics of trade execution. It serves as a "Physical Risk Engine," allowing traders to align their position sizing with objective market volatility rather than emotional impulse. This ensures that the dollar-risk per trade remains constant regardless of price volatility or leverage。
Core Technical Logic & Features
This script focuses on the quantitative aspects of capital preservation:
Quantitative Position Sizing Engine: Automatically calculates the precise trade quantity using the formula: $(Total Capital \times Risk \%) / SL Distance$. This keeps the loss exposure fixed for every trade。
Multi-Mode Volatility Stop-Loss: Provides three distinct algorithms for calculating risk boundaries:
3M Range: Based on short-term periodic price range averages。
ATR-Based: Utilizing the Average True Range for smoothed volatility assessment。
Structural Mode: Automatically identifying local swing highs/lows as defensive anchors。
Low-Volatility "Choke Zone" Monitor: The engine monitors current market range against a user-defined threshold. It provides a visual warning when the market enters a "Choke Zone," suggesting that the current volatility is too low for a favorable risk-reward ratio。
Real-time HUD Visualization: Renders a dynamic dashboard and on-chart execution lines (Entry & SL) for immediate tactical awareness。
How to Use
Risk Setup: Enter your total trading capital and preferred risk percentage (e.g., 1.5%) in the settings。
Logic Selection: Select your desired SL source (Range, ATR, or Structural) based on the current market environment。
Execution: Use the calculated "Suggested Quantity" displayed on the dashboard to input into your exchange interface。
產品概述
V-Max 加密貨幣風控計算機 是一款技術性風險管理儀表板，旨在自動化執行紀律所需的複雜計算。它作為一個實時的「物理風險引擎」，幫助交易者將倉位規模與客觀的市場波動率掛鉤，而非憑情緒操作。
核心技術邏輯
定量倉位計算：引擎精確計算交易數量，確保每筆交易的美元風險始終保持恆定。
多模式波動率止損：提供三種不同邏輯（3M Range, ATR, 結構高低點）來計算風險邊界。
低波動「窒息區」監控：當市場進入波動極低的「窒息區」時發出警告，提醒交易者目前的風險報酬比統計上不利。
Access & Support
This script is published as a Free Public Utility in the TradingView Library. Disclaimer: Past performance does not guarantee future results. This tool provides technical analysis only and does not offer financial advice.
V-Max Strategic Horizon: Cross-TF Coordinate Sync (Public EditioOverview
The V-Max Strategic Horizon is a technical visualization utility designed to solve the problem of coordinate drift during multi-timeframe analysis. It serves as a "Physical Coordinate Anchor," ensuring that high-level resistance and support boundaries from macro timeframes (e.g., 1H, 4H, or 1D) remain strictly locked and visible even when the trader scales down to 1M or 3M execution charts.
Core Technical Logic
Timeframe Anchoring Engine: The script utilizes request.security with a fixed lookback_cnt to pull the absolute highest and lowest price points from a specified anchor timeframe.
Absolute Coordinate Locking (Zero-Drift): Unlike manual horizontal lines that may become misaligned, this tool employs the line.new system with extend.both logic. This ensures the horizons are mathematically tied to the price scale, providing a consistent strategic reference across all chart resolutions.
High-Speed Computational Logic: To prevent the "Script Timeout" errors common in multi-timeframe indicators, the v11.0 engine eliminates iterative loops, favoring vectorized calculations for real-time responsiveness.
Dynamic Metadata Labeling: The script features an automated labeling system that dynamically identifies the source of the data (e.g., "1H Anchor") and displays the precise price coordinate, reducing cognitive load during high-frequency trading.
How to Use
Set Your Anchor: Choose your strategic timeframe (e.g., 1H for day trading, 1D for swing trading) in the settings.
Define the Scan Range: Adjust the lookback count to determine the "strength" of the historical horizon.
Execute with Context: Watch how the price interacts with the "Red" (Resistance) and "Green" (Support) horizons on your 3M chart to identify macro-rejections or breakouts.
產品概述
V-Max 戰略地平線 是一款解決多時框分析中座標位移問題的技術工具。它作為「物理座標錨點」，確保大週期（如 1H、4H 或 1D）的壓力與支撐邊界，在交易者切換至 1M 或 3M 執行圖表時，依然嚴格鎖定且清晰可見。
核心技術邏輯
時框錨定引擎：利用跨時框數據抓取技術，獲取指定基準時區的絕對價格極值。
絕對座標鎖定（零位移）：採用 line 渲染系統配合同步延伸邏輯，確保地平線在數學上與價格刻度綁定，提供一致的戰略參考。
極速運算邏輯：v11.0 引擎優化了跨時框數據處理，消除了複雜迴圈，確保在短線圖表上實現零延遲性能。
Access & Support
This script is published as a Free Public Utility in the TradingView Library. Disclaimer: For technical analysis purposes only.
Execution-Weighted Market Regime Map (EWRM)Overview
The Execution-Weighted Market Regime Map is designed to answer a simple question:
“Is this market worth trading right now, or is it mostly noise and costs?”
Instead of focusing only on trend vs range, it evaluates whether conditions are likely to:
offer clean, follow-through price movement
chop back and forth
be dominated by costs like spread and slippage
It is meant for day traders and swing traders who want to choose when to trade, not just where to enter .
Core idea
Most indicators try to predict direction.
EWRM focuses on tradability.
It highlights:
when the market moves cleanly and is easier to execute
when volatility is unstable and unreliable
when “cost of trading” (spread and slippage) eats potential profit
The indicator shows this using:
a visual dashboard
background color changes
clear regime labels
Key concepts in plain language
SRR – Spread-to-Range Ratio
How big the trading costs are compared to how much price is moving.
High SRR = the market moves little but costs you a lot → bad environment.
Low SRR = price moves much more than it costs to trade → better environment.
PEI – Pullback Efficiency Index
Measures how “clean” trends are.
If pullbacks lead to smooth continuation, PEI is high.
If pullbacks constantly fail and reverse, PEI is low.
SRP – Slippage Risk Proxy
Estimates how likely you are to get worse fills than expected.
Fast spikes, thin liquidity zones, and whipsaw behavior increase SRP.
What EWRM helps you do
avoid overtrading during messy conditions
size up when conditions are smooth and directional
identify when volatility is expanding or collapsing
adapt behavior by time of day (open, midday, close)
How it works at a high level
It measures how much the market is moving
It checks whether volatility is stable or chaotic
It estimates how expensive and difficult execution is
It breaks the day into premarket, open, midday, and power hour
It combines all of this into an overall “regime” label
It colors the background or dashboard so you can read the state instantly
There are no buy/sell arrows. It is a decision-support tool, not a signal generator.
How to use it
trade more when conditions are clean and execution-friendly
stand aside when cost and noise dominate movement
prefer trend setups when trend regimes are detected
stay cautious when regime flips frequently
Think of it as a weather map for the market, not a GPS.
Inputs and parameters
Core settings
Realized Volatility Length – how fast the tool reacts to volatility changes
Volatility Stability Length – how stable/unstable volatility appears
ATR Length – used to scale and normalize movement
General Lookback – how much history is analyzed
Session settings
Premarket
Opening drive
Midday
Power hour
These let the tool treat each time window differently, since behavior changes through the day.
Cost settings
Estimated Spread – approximate buy/sell price difference
Estimated Slippage – expected extra cost from fast movement
These make the tool focus on realistic, after-cost trading conditions .
Visual settings
toggle dashboard
toggle background shading
toggle regime labels
choose X/Y position of the panel
Limitations
uses estimates of spread and slippage, not live order-book data
cannot remove all uncertainty
best used as a filter, not a trading system
Suggested use
filter out bad environments
increase selectivity
align position size with regime quality
combine with your own strategy or entries
Options Gamma Flip Zones [BackQuant]Options Gamma Flip Zones
A market-structure style “gamma flip” mapper that builds adaptive strike-like zones, scores how price interacts with them, then promotes the strongest candidates into confirmed flip zones. Designed to highlight pinning, failed breaks, and rotational behavior without needing live options chain data.
What this indicator does
This script identifies price levels that behave like “strike magnets” during conditions that resemble options pinning, then draws dynamic zones around those levels.
Instead of assuming every round number matters, it:
Creates a strike ladder (auto or manual step).
Applies a regime filter that looks for “pin-friendly” market conditions.
Tracks and scores repeated interactions with the level.
Upgrades a zone from candidate to confirmed when enough evidence accumulates.
Invalidates zones when price achieves sustained acceptance away from them.
The output is a set of shaded boxes (zones) centered on strike-like levels, with text readouts that show the current state of each zone.
Key concept: “Gamma proxy”
A true gamma flip requires options positioning data. This indicator does not use options chain gamma.
Instead, it uses a proxy approach:
When markets have elevated volatility relative to their recent baseline AND trend strength is weak, price often behaves “sticky” around key levels.
In those conditions, repeated touches and failed escapes around a level behave similarly to pinning around strikes.
So this tool is best read as:
“Where would a strike-like magnet likely exist right now, based on price behavior and regime conditions?”
How zones are created
Zones only start forming when the script detects a pin-friendly regime.
1) Strike Ladder (level selection)
Auto Strike Step selects a step size based on current price magnitude (bigger price, bigger step).
Manual Strike Step lets you force a fixed increment.
The current “active level” is the nearest rounded level to price.
Major Level Every optionally marks major ladder levels (multiples of step).
2) Band construction (zone thickness)
Each zone is a symmetric band around the level, using one of two modes:
ATR mode scales thickness with volatility.
Percent mode scales thickness as a fraction of price.
This matters because “pin behavior” is not a single tick. It’s a region where price repeatedly probes and rejects.
Regime filter (when the script is allowed to believe in pinning)
A zone is only eligible to form and strengthen when Pin Regime is active. Pin Regime is a conjunction of:
1) IV proxy (ATR z-score)
Uses ATR as a volatility proxy.
Converts ATR% into a z-score relative to a long lookback.
IV Proxy Threshold controls how elevated volatility must be before the script considers pinning likely.
2) Weak trend requirement
The script also requires price action to be non-trending:
EMA spread must be small (fast vs slow EMA not diverging strongly).
ADX must be below a ceiling, confirming weak directional trend strength.
Interpretation:
High “IV proxy” + weak trend is where pin-like behavior is most common.
If trend is strong, zones are less meaningful because price is more likely to accept away from levels.
Flip confirmation logic (what upgrades a zone)
A zone is not “confirmed” just because price is near it once. The script builds conviction via evidence accumulation.
Evidence types:
Touches : price comes close to the level within tolerance.
Failed escapes : price pushes outside the band but closes back inside (rejection).
Acceptance run : consecutive closes outside the band, suggesting price is accepting away from the zone.
Protections:
Touch Cooldown prevents counting the same micro-chop as multiple touches.
Acceptance Bars defines what “real acceptance” means, so the zone does not get invalidated by one noisy bar.
A zone becomes confirmed when:
Touches meet the “evidence” requirement.
Failed escapes meet the “rejection” requirement.
The regime filter still says the market is pin-friendly.
That is important, it avoids promoting levels that only worked briefly in a trending tape.
Zone scoring and lifecycle
Each zone maintains a score that evolves over time. Think of score as “how much this level has recently behaved like a magnet.”
Score dynamics:
Decay per bar : score fades over time if price stops respecting the zone.
+ per touch : repeated proximity increases score.
+ per failed escape : rejections add stronger reinforcement.
- per acceptance bar : sustained trading outside reduces score.
Min score to draw : prevents clutter from weak, low-confidence zones.
Invalidation:
If the score becomes very weak AND price achieves sustained acceptance away from the zone, the zone is deleted.
This keeps the chart clean and ensures zones represent current market behavior, not ancient levels.
How to read the plot on chart
1) Zone fill and border
Each zone is drawn as a box extended to the right.
Fill opacity adapts to zone strength, strong zones are visually more prominent.
Border color encodes the current directional context and special events.
2) Bullish vs bearish coloring
A zone is colored bullish when price is currently trading above the zone’s mid-level.
A zone is colored bearish when price is currently trading below it.
This is not a trade signal by itself, it is a state cue for “which side is in control around the level.”
3) Failed escape highlighting
If price attempts to break above the band and fails, the border temporarily highlights as a failed up escape.
If price attempts to break below the band and fails, the border temporarily highlights as a failed down escape.
These are the moments where pin behavior is most visible:
Break attempt.
Immediate rejection.
Return to the band.
4) Midline (optional)
The zone midline is the strike-like level itself.
It is dotted to distinguish it from price structure lines.
5) Optional strike ladder overlay
When enabled, the script draws major and minor ladder lines near current price.
Major levels are thicker and less transparent.
This is a visualization aid for “where the algorithm is rounding,” not a prediction tool.
On-chart text readout (what the box text means)
Each box prints a compact state summary, designed for fast scanning:
Γ CANDIDATE means the zone is being tracked but not yet validated.
Γ FLIP (PROXY) means the zone has met confirmation requirements.
BULL/BEAR indicates which side price is on relative to the mid-level.
L prints the level value.
T is touch count, repeated proximity events.
F is fail count, rejected escape attempts.
IVz is the volatility proxy z-score at the moment.
ADX is the trend strength context.
Practical use cases
1) Pinning and range trading context
Confirmed zones often act like gravity wells in sideways or rotational regimes.
When price repeatedly fails to escape, fading outer edges can be reasonable context for mean reversion workflows.
2) Breakout validation
If price achieves acceptance outside the band for multiple bars, that is stronger breakout context than a single wick.
Zones that invalidate cleanly can mark transitions from pinning to directional move.
3) Time your “do nothing” periods
When Pin Regime is active and a zone is confirmed, the tape often becomes sticky and inefficient for trend chasing.
This helps avoid taking trend entries into a pin environment.
Alerts
Standalone alertconditions are included:
Zone Confirmed : a candidate becomes confirmed.
Zone Touch : price touches an active zone within tolerance.
Zone Invalidated : the zone loses relevance and is removed.
Tuning guidelines
Sensitivity vs quality
Lower Touches Needed and Failed Escapes Needed creates more zones faster, but with lower quality.
Higher values create fewer zones, but the ones that remain are more behaviorally “proven.”
Band width
ATR mode adapts to volatility and is typically safer across assets.
Percent mode is consistent visually but can feel too tight in high vol or too wide in low vol if not tuned.
Regime thresholds
If you want fewer zones, raise IV proxy threshold and tighten weak-trend filters.
If you want more zones, lower IV proxy threshold and loosen weak-trend filters.
Limitations
This is a proxy model, not live options gamma.
In strong trends, pinning assumptions can break, the regime filter is there to reduce that risk, but not eliminate it.
Auto strike step is designed for typical market ranges, manual step is recommended for niche tick sizes or custom markets.
Disclaimer
Educational and informational only, not financial advice.
Not a complete trading system.
Always validate settings per asset and timeframe.
