Square Root Moving AverageAbstract
This script computes moving averages which the weighting of the recent quarter takes up about a half weight.
This script also provides their upper bands and lower bands.
You can apply moving average or band strategies with this script.
Introduction
Moving average is a popular indicator which can eliminate market noise and observe trend.
There are several moving average related strategies used by many traders.
The first one is trade when the price is far from moving average.
To measure if the price is far from moving average, traders may need a lower band and an upper band.
Bollinger bands use standard derivation and Keltner channels use average true range.
In up trend, moving average and lower band can be support.
In ranging market, lower band can be support and upper band can be resistance.
In down trend, moving average and upper band can be resistance.
An another group of moving average strategy is comparing short term moving average and long term moving average.
Moving average cross, Awesome oscillators and MACD belong to this group.
The period and weightings of moving averages are also topics.
Period, as known as length, means how many days are computed by moving averages.
Weighting means how much weight the price of a day takes up in moving averages.
For simple moving averages, the weightings of each day are equal.
For most of non-simple moving averages, the weightings of more recent days are higher than the weightings of less recent days.
Many trading courses say the concept of trading strategies is more important than the settings of moving averages.
However, we can observe some characteristics of price movement to design the weightings of moving averages and make them more meaningful.
In this research, we use the observation that when there are no significant events, when the time frame becomes 4 times, the average true range becomes about 2 times.
For example, the average true range in 4-hour chart is about 2 times of the average true range in 1-hour chart; the average true range in 1-hour chart is about 2 times of the average true range in 15-minute chart.
Therefore, the goal of design is making the weighting of the most recent quarter is close to the weighting of the rest recent three quarters.
For example, for the 24-day moving average, the weighting of the most recent 6 days is close to the weighting of the rest 18 days.
Computing the weighting
The formula of moving average is
sum ( price of day n * weighting of day n ) / sum ( weighting of day n )
Day 1 is the most recent day and day k+1 is the day before day k.
For more convenient explanation, we don't expect sum ( weighting of day n ) is equal to 1.
To make the weighting of the most recent quarter is close to the weighting of the rest recent three quarters, we have
sum ( weighting of day 4n ) = 2 * sum ( weighting of day n )
If when weighting of day 1 is 1, we have
sum ( weighting of day n ) = sqrt ( n )
weighting of day n = sqrt ( n ) - sqrt ( n-1 )
weighting of day 2 ≒ 1.414 - 1.000 = 0.414
weighting of day 3 ≒ 1.732 - 1.414 = 0.318
weighting of day 4 ≒ 2.000 - 1.732 = 0.268
If we follow this formula, the weighting of day 1 is too strong and the moving average may be not stable.
To reduce the weighting of day 1 and keep the spirit of the formula, we can add a parameter (we call it as x_1w2b).
The formula becomes
weighting of day n = sqrt ( n+x_1w2b ) - sqrt ( n-1+x_1w2b )
if x_1w2b is 0.25, then we have
weighting of day 1 = sqrt(1.25) - sqrt(0.25) ≒ 1.1 - 0.5 = 0.6
weighting of day 2 = sqrt(2.25) - sqrt(1.25) ≒ 1.5 - 1.1 = 0.4
weighting of day 3 = sqrt(3.25) - sqrt(2.25) ≒ 1.8 - 1.5 = 0.3
weighting of day 4 = sqrt(4.25) - sqrt(3.25) ≒ 2.06 - 1.8 = 0.26
weighting of day 5 = sqrt(5.25) - sqrt(4.25) ≒ 2.3 - 2.06 = 0.24
weighting of day 6 = sqrt(6.25) - sqrt(5.25) ≒ 2.5 - 2.3 = 0.2
weighting of day 7 = sqrt(7.25) - sqrt(6.25) ≒ 2.7 - 2.5 = 0.2
What you see and can adjust in this script
This script plots three moving averages described above.
The short term one is default magenta, 6 days and 1 atr.
The middle term one is default yellow, 24 days and 2 atr.
The long term one is default green, 96 days and 4 atr.
I arrange the short term 6 days to make it close to sma(5).
The other twos are arranged according to 4x length and 2x atr.
There are 9 curves plotted by this script. I made the lower bands and the upper bands less clear than moving averages so it is less possible misrecognizing lower or upper bands as moving averages.
x_src : how to compute the reference price of a day, using 1 to 4 of open, high, low and close.
len : how many days are computed by moving averages
atr : how many days are computed by average true range
multi : the distance from the moving average to the lower band and the distance from the moving average to the lower band are equal to multi * average true range.
x_1w2b : adjust this number to avoid the weighting of day 1 from being too strong.
Conclusion
There are moving averages which the weighting of the most recent quarter is close to the weighting of the rest recent three quarters.
We can apply strategies based on moving averages. Like most of indicators, oversold does not always means it is an opportunity to buy.
If the short term lower band is close to the middle term moving average or the middle term lower band is close to the long term moving average, it may be potential support value.
References
Computing FIR Filters Using Arrays
How to trade with moving averages : the eight trading signals concluded by Granville
How to trade with Bollinger bands
How to trade with double Bollinger bands
Buscar en scripts para "curve"
Tilson T3 and MavilimW Triple Combined StrategyInspired by truly greatful Kivanç Ozbilgic (www.tradingview.com).
The strategy tries to combined three different moving average strategies into one.
Strategies covered are:
1. Tillson T3 Moving Average Strategy
Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA, double EMA, triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend. Here is what the calculation looks like:
T3 = c1*e6 + c2*e5 + c3*e4 + c4*e3, where:
– e1 = EMA (Close, Period)
– e2 = EMA (e1, Period)
– e3 = EMA (e2, Period)
– e4 = EMA (e3, Period)
– e5 = EMA (e4, Period)
– e6 = EMA (e5, Period)
– a is the volume factor, default value is 0.7 but 0.618 can also be used
– c1 = – a^3
– c2 = 3*a^2 + 3*a^3
– c3 = – 6*a^2 – 3*a – 3*a^3
– c4 = 1 + 3*a + a^3 + 3*a^2
T3 MovingThe T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner.
Strategy for Tillson T3 is if the close crossovers T3 line and for at least five bars the close was under the T3
2. Tillson T3 Fibonacci Cross
Kivanc Ozbilgic added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the T3 Fibonacci Strategy input box.
Strategy for Tillson T3 Fibo is when the Fibo Line crossover the T3 it gives long signal vice versa.
3. MavilimW
MavilimW is originally a support and resistance indicator based on fibonacci injected weighted moving averages.
Strategy for MavilimW is is if the close crossovers T3 line and for at least five bars the close was under the T3
Hope you enjoy
[2020 Updated]Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth CurvesCredit goes to the original writer of the script, Quantadelic, who generously allowed anyone to copy/edit. I adjusted the value of the bottom/top intercept and slope to better fit the March 2020 coronavirus dip.
Use Bitstamp BTCUSD for better reading.
Bitcoin Block Height (Total Blocks)Bitcoin Block Height by RagingRocketBull 2020
Version 1.0
Differences between versions are listed below:
ver 1.0: compare QUANDL Difficulty vs Blockchain Difficulty sources, get total error estimate
ver 2.0: compare QUANDL Hash Rate vs Blockchain Hash Rate sources, get total error estimate
ver 3.0: Total Blocks estimate using different methods
--------------------------------
This indicator estimates Bitcoin Block Height (Total Blocks) using Difficulty and Hash Rate in the most accurate way possible, since
QUANDL doesn't provide a direct source for Bitcoin Block Height (neither QUANDL:BCHAIN, nor QUANDL:BITCOINWATCH/MINING).
Bitcoin Block Height can be used in other calculations, for instance, to estimate the next date of Bitcoin Halving.
Using this indicator I demonstrate:
- that QUANDL data is not accurate and differ from Blockchain source data (industry standard), but still can be used in calculations
- how to plot a series of data points from an external csv source and compare it with another source
- how to accurately estimate Bitcoin Block Height
Features:
- compare QUANDL Difficulty source (EOD, D1) with external Blockchain Difficulty csv source (EOD, D1, embedded)
- show/hide Quandl/Blockchain Difficulty curves
- show/hide Blockchain Difficulty candles
- show/hide differences (aqua vertical lines)
- show/hide time gaps (green vertical lines)
- count source differences within data range only or for the whole history
- multiply both sources by alpha to match before comparing
- floor/round both matched sources when comparing
- Blockchain Difficulty offset to align sequences, bars > 0
- count time gaps and missing bars (as result of time gaps)
WARNING:
- This indicator hits the max 1000 vars limit, adding more plots/vars/data points is not possible
- Both QUANDL/Blockchain provide daily EOD data and must be plotted on a daily D1 chart otherwise results will be incorrect
- current chart must not have any time gaps inside the range (time gaps outside the range don't affect the calculation). Time gaps check is provided.
Otherwise hardcoded Blockchain series will be shifted forward on gaps and the whole sequence become truncated at the end => data comparison/total blocks estimate will be incorrect
Examples of valid charts that can run this indicator: COINBASE:BTCUSD,D1 (has 8 time gaps, 34 missing bars outside the range), QUANDL:BCHAIN/DIFF,D1 (has no gaps)
Usage:
- Description of output plot values from left to right:
- c_shifted - 4x blockchain plotcandles ohlc, green/black (default na)
- diff - QUANDL Difficulty
- c_shifted - Blockchain Difficulty with offset
- QUANDL Difficulty multiplied by alpha and rounded
- Blockchain Difficulty multiplied by alpha and rounded
- is_different, bool - cur bar's source values are different (1) or not (0)
- count, number of differences
- bars, total number of bars/data points in the range
- QUANDL daily blocks
- Blockchain daily blocks
- QUANDL total blocks
- Blockchain total blocks
- total_error - difference between total_blocks estimated using both sources as of cur bar, blocks
- number_of_gaps - number of time gaps on a chart
- missing_bars - number of missing bars as result of time gaps on a chart
- Color coding:
- Blue - QUANDL data
- Red - Blockchain data
- Black - Is Different
- Aqua - number of differences
- Green - number of time gaps
- by default the indicator will show lots of vertical aqua lines, 138 differences, 928 bars, total error -370 blocks
- to compare the best match of the 2 sources shift Blockchain source 1 bar into the future by setting Blockchain Difficulty offset = 1, leave alpha = 0.01 =>
this results in no vertical aqua lines, 0 differences, total_error = 0 blocks
if you move the mouse inside the range some bars will show total_error = 1 blocks => total_error <= 1 blocks
- now uncheck Round Difficulty Values flag => some filled aqua areas, 218 differences.
- now set alpha = 1 (use raw source values) instead of 0.01 => lots of filled aqua areas, 871 differences.
although there are many differences this still doesn't affect the total_blocks estimate provided Difficulty offset = 1
Methodology:
To estimate Bitcoin Block Height we need 3 steps, each step has its own version:
- Step 1: Compare QUANDL Difficulty vs Blockchain Difficulty sources and estimate error based on differences
- Step 2: Compare QUANDL Hash Rate vs Blockchain Hash Rate sources and estimate error based on differences
- Step 3: Estimate Bitcoin Block Height (Total Blocks) using different methods in the most accurate way possible
QUANDL doesn't provide block time data, but we can calculate it using the Hash Rate approximation formula:
estimated Hash rate/sec H = 2^32 * D / T, where D - Difficulty, T - block time, sec
1. block time (T) can be derived from the formula, since we already know Difficulty (D) and Hash Rate (H) from QUANDL
2. using block time (T) we can estimate daily blocks as daily time / block time
3. block height (total blocks) = cumulative sum of daily blocks of all bars on the chart (that's why having no gaps is important)
Notes:
- This code uses Pinescript v3 compatibility framework
- hash rate is in THash/s, although QUANDL falsely states in description GHash/s! THash = 1000 GHash
- you can't read files, can only embed/hardcode raw data in script
- both QUANDL and Blockchain sources have no gaps
- QUANDL and Blockchain series are different in the following ways:
- all QUANDL data is already shifted 1 bar into the future, i.e. prev day's value is shown as cur day's value => Blockchain data must be shifted 1 bar forward to match
- all QUANDL diff data > 1 bn (10^12) are truncated and have last 1-2 digits as zeros, unlike Blockchain data => must multiply both values by 0.01 and floor/round the results
- QUANDL sometimes rounds, other times truncates those 1-2 last zero digits to get the 3rd last digit => must use both floor/round
- you can only shift sequences forward into the future (right), not back into the past (left) using positive offset => only Blockchain source can be shifted
- since total_blocks is already a cumulative sum of all prev values on each bar, total_error must be simple delta, can't be also int(cum()) or incremental
- all Blockchain values and total_error are na outside the range - move you mouse cursor on the last bar/inside the range to see them
TLDR, ver 1.0 Conclusion:
QUANDL/Blockchain Difficulty source differences don't affect total blocks estimate, total error <= 1 block with avg 150 blocks/day is negligible
Both QUANDL/Blockchain Difficulty sources are equally valid and can be used in calculations. QUANDL is a relatively good stand in for Blockchain industry standard data.
Links:
QUANDL difficulty source: www.quandl.com
QUANDL hash rate source: www.quandl.com
Blockchain difficulty source (export data as csv): www.blockchain.com
Dual_Spread_FTX[Schmittie]//This script displays 2 spreads between FTX perpetuals contracts and futures contracts.
//In the settings, you can choose which curves to display for direct comparison.
//It is based on Thojdid's Multi-Spread script, but loads faster as there are only 2 coins
//An high-low range can be added
Gann High Low StrategyGann High Low is a moving average based trend indicator consisting of two different simple moving averages.
The Gann High Low Activator Indicator was described by Robert Krausz in a 1998 issue of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. It is a simple moving average SMA of the previous n period's highs or lows.
The indicator tracks both curves (of the highs and the lows). The close of the bar defines which of the two gets plotted.
Bitcoin Logarithmic Growth Curves for intraday usersI wish to thank @Quantadelic who created this great indicator and leaving it open for others to improve.
I have made changes to make it user-friendly for the intraday traders.
The changes made have been;
1. Compartmentalized each area of the major Fibonacci level;
2. Added minor Fibonacci levels;
3. Color-coded the support and resistance levels, for better viewing;
4. Zoned each area of the major Fibonacci level; and
5. Created a time-frame display period for quicker loading of the indicator.
I have removed a few things to allow the indicator to run quicker;
1. Future projections; and
2. The major higher levels of the Fibonacci, which may be useful when Bitcoin reaches 100k.
Enjoy
Hull SuiteHull is its extremely responsive and smooth moving average created by Alan Hull in 2005.
Minimal lag and smooth curves made HMA extremely popular TA tool.
alanhull.com
Script was made to regroup multiple hull variants in one indicator,maintaining flexible customization and intuitive visualization
Option to chose between 3 Hull variations
Option to chose between 2 visualization modes ( Bands or single line)
Option to Paint hull and/or candlesticks according to hulls trend
Shortcut for personalizing Line/band thickness,instead of changing every object manually ,there is global option in inputs
HMA
THMA ( 3HMA)
EHMA
HMA:
Alan Hull
EHMA:
Slower than hull by default.
Raudys, Aistis & Lenčiauskas, Vaidotas & Malčius, Edmundas. (2013). Moving Averages for Financial Data Smoothing ( 403. 34-45. 10.1007/978-3-642-41947-8_4.) Vilnius University, Faculty of Mathematics and Informatics
3HMA (THMA) :
Documentation on link below
alexgrover
Gann High LowGann High Low is a moving average based trend indicator consisting of two different simple moving averages.
The Gann High Low Activator Indicator was described by Robert Krausz in a 1998 issue of Stocks & Commodities Magazine. It is a simple moving average SMA of the previous n period's highs or lows.
The indicator tracks both curves (of the highs and the lows). The close of the bar defines which of the two gets plotted.
This version is showing the channel that needs to be broken if the trend is going to be changed, and it allows you to chose from the 4 basic averages type for calculation (by definition, Gann High Low Activator uses only simple moving average, but some other averages can give you results that are probably more acceptable for trading in some conditions).
Increasing HPeriod and decreasing LPeriod better for short trades, vice versa for long positions.
Tillson T3 Moving Average MTFMULTIPLE TIME FRAME version of Tillson T3 Moving Average Indicator
Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior -1.60% to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA , double EMA , triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend.
The T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner. Here are several assumptions:
If the price action is above the T3 Moving Average and the indicator is headed upward, then we have a bullish trend and should only enter long trades (advisable for novice/intermediate traders). If the price is below the T3 Moving Average and it is edging lower, then we have a bearish trend and should limit entries to short. Below you can see it visualized in a trading platform.
Although the T3 MA is considered as one of the best swing following indicators that can be used on all time frames and in any market, it is still not advisable for novice/intermediate traders to increase their risk level and enter the market during trading ranges (especially tight ones). Thus, for the purposes of this article we will limit our entry signals only to such in trending conditions.
Once the market is displaying trending behavior, we can place with-trend entry orders as soon as the price pulls back to the moving average (undershooting or overshooting it will also work). As we know, moving averages are strong resistance/support levels, thus the price is more likely to rebound from them and resume its with-trend direction instead of penetrating it and reversing the trend.
And so, in a bull trend, if the market pulls back to the moving average, we can fairly safely assume that it will bounce off the T3 MA and resume upward momentum, thus we can go long. The same logic is in force during a bearish trend .
And last but not least, the T3 Moving Average can be used to generate entry signals upon crossing with another T3 MA with a longer trackback period (just like any other moving average crossover). When the fast T3 crosses the slower one from below and edges higher, this is called a Golden Cross and produces a bullish entry signal. When the faster T3 crosses the slower one from above and declines further, the scenario is called a Death Cross and signifies bearish conditions.
I Personally added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the box in the input section. traders can combine the two lines to have Buy/Sell signals from the crosses.
Developed by Tim Tillson
Tillson T3 Moving Average by KIVANÇ fr3762Developed by Tim Tillson, the T3 Moving Average is considered superior to traditional moving averages as it is smoother, more responsive and thus performs better in ranging market conditions as well. However, it bears the disadvantage of overshooting the price as it attempts to realign itself to current market conditions.
It incorporates a smoothing technique which allows it to plot curves more gradual than ordinary moving averages and with a smaller lag. Its smoothness is derived from the fact that it is a weighted sum of a single EMA , double EMA , triple EMA and so on. When a trend is formed, the price action will stay above or below the trend during most of its progression and will hardly be touched by any swings. Thus, a confirmed penetration of the T3 MA and the lack of a following reversal often indicates the end of a trend.
The T3 Moving Average generally produces entry signals similar to other moving averages and thus is traded largely in the same manner. Here are several assumptions:
If the price action is above the T3 Moving Average and the indicator is headed upward, then we have a bullish trend and should only enter long trades (advisable for novice/intermediate traders). If the price is below the T3 Moving Average and it is edging lower, then we have a bearish trend and should limit entries to short. Below you can see it visualized in a trading platform.
Although the T3 MA is considered as one of the best swing following indicators that can be used on all time frames and in any market, it is still not advisable for novice/intermediate traders to increase their risk level and enter the market during trading ranges (especially tight ones). Thus, for the purposes of this article we will limit our entry signals only to such in trending conditions.
Once the market is displaying trending behavior, we can place with-trend entry orders as soon as the price pulls back to the moving average (undershooting or overshooting it will also work). As we know, moving averages are strong resistance/support levels, thus the price is more likely to rebound from them and resume its with-trend direction instead of penetrating it and reversing the trend.
And so, in a bull trend, if the market pulls back to the moving average, we can fairly safely assume that it will bounce off the T3 MA and resume upward momentum, thus we can go long. The same logic is in force during a bearish trend .
And last but not least, the T3 Moving Average can be used to generate entry signals upon crossing with another T3 MA with a longer trackback period (just like any other moving average crossover). When the fast T3 crosses the slower one from below and edges higher, this is called a Golden Cross and produces a bullish entry signal. When the faster T3 crosses the slower one from above and declines further, the scenario is called a Death Cross and signifies bearish conditions.
I Personally added a second T3 line with a volume factor of 0.618 (Fibonacci Ratio) and length of 3 (fibonacci number) which can be added by selecting the box in the input section. traders can combine the two lines to have Buy/Sell signals from the crosses.
Developed by Tim Tillson
Topfinder Bottomfinder pivot matcher Midas- jayyMidas Technical Analysis: A VWAP Approach to Trading and Investing in Today’s Markets by
Andrew Coles, David G. Hawkins Copyright © 2011 by Andrew Coles and David G. Hawkins.
Appendix C: TradeStation Code for the MIDAS Topfinder/Bottomfinder Curves ported to tradingview
This code is used to assist in adjusting D volume to intersect pivot candle at a pivot candle when using this script: Top Bottom Finder Public version- Jayy found here:
The "n" number entered into the TB-F script is the topfinder/bottomfinder starting point or anchor
Be sure to enter the correct number in the "Topfinder bottomfinder initiation/anchor candle: 1 for CANDLE low - top finder, 2 for CANDLE high - bottom finder, 3 for CANDLE MIDPOINT (hl2) dialogue box
The location of the match point of the pivot candle is extremely important in the: "Match to PIVOT CANDLE: use 1 for CANDLE low, 2 for midtail of the candle below the BODY, 3 for candle BODY low, 4 for CANDLE HIGH, 5 for midpoint of candletail above body, 6 for candle BODY high". Do not
confuse body high with candle high. The body low will either be the candle open or close. The body high will be either the open or close.
If you expect a trend up the pivot candle is likely the low of the pivot candle ie 1 (2 and 3 are alternatives).
In a trend down the high of the pivot candle is often selected ie 4 (5 or 6 are alternatives)
If the candle body is aqua increase D volume if it is orange reduce D volume. Adjust iteratively until the candle body turns yellow. That will mean that the TB-F line passes through the pivot candle at the selected point.
Jayy
Vix FIX / StochRSI StrategyThis strategy is based off of Chris Moody's Vix Fix Indicator . I simply used his indicator and added some rules around it, specifically on entry and exits.
Rules :
Enter upon a filtered or aggressive entry
If there are multiple entry signals, allow pyramiding
Exit when there is Stochastic RSI crossover above 80
This works great on a number of stocks. I am keeping a list of stocks with decent Profit Factors and clean equity curves here .
Possible ways to use this:
Modify this script and setup alerts around the various entries
Use as is with different stocks or currency pairs
Modify entry / exit points to make it more profitable for even more symbols and currencies
UCS_Squeeze_Timing-V1There is an important information the Squeeze indicator is missing, which is the Pre Squeeze entry. While the Bollinger band begins to curves out of the KC, The breakout usually happens. There are many instances that the Squeeze indicator will fire, after the Major move, I cant blame the indicator, thats the nature (lagging) of all indicators, and we have to live with it.
Therefore pre-squeeze-fire Entry can be critical in timing your entry. Timing it too early could result in stoploss if it turns against you, ( or serious burn on options premium), because we never know when the squeeze will fire with the TTM squeeze, But now We know. Its a little timing tool. Managing position is critical when playing options.
I will code the timing signal when I get some time.
Updated Versions -
Debt-Cycle vs Bitcoin-CycleDebt-Cycle vs Bitcoin-Cycle Indicator
The Debt-Cycle vs Bitcoin-Cycle indicator is a macro-economic analysis tool that compares traditional financial market cycles (debt/credit cycles) against Bitcoin market cycles. It uses Z-score normalization to track the relative positioning of global financial conditions versus cryptocurrency market sentiment, helping identify potential turning points and divergences between traditional finance and digital assets.
Key Features
Dual-Cycle Analysis: Simultaneously tracks traditional financial cycles and Bitcoin-specific cycles
Z-Score Normalization: Standardizes diverse data sources for meaningful comparison
Multi-Asset Coverage: Analyzes currencies, commodities, bonds, monetary aggregates, and on-chain metrics
Divergence Detection: Identifies when Bitcoin cycles move independently from traditional finance
21-Day Timeframe: Optimized for Long-term cycle analysis
What It Measures
Finance-Cycle (White Line)
Tracks traditional financial market health through:
Currencies: USD strength (DXY), global currency weights (USDWCU, EURWCU)
Commodities: Oil, gold, natural gas, agricultural products, and Bitcoin price
Corporate Bonds: Investment-grade spreads, high-yield spreads, credit conditions
Monetary Aggregates: M2 money supply, foreign exchange reserves (weighted by currency)
Treasury Bonds: Yield curve (2Y/10Y, 3M/10Y), term premiums, long-term rates
Bitcoin-Cycle (Orange Line)
Tracks Bitcoin market positioning through:
On-Chain Metrics:
MVRV Ratio (Market Value to Realized Value)
NUPL (Net Unrealized Profit/Loss)
Profit/Loss Address Distribution
Technical Indicators:
Bitcoin price Z-score
Moving average deviation
Relative Strength:
ETH/BTC ratio (altcoin strength indicator)
Visual Elements
White Line: Finance-Cycle indicator (positive = expansionary conditions, negative = contractionary)
Orange Line: Bitcoin-Cycle indicator (positive = bullish positioning, negative = bearish)
Zero Line: Neutral reference point
Interpretation
Cycle Alignment
Both positive: Risk-on environment, favorable for crypto
Both negative: Risk-off environment, caution warranted
Divergence: Potential opportunities or warning signals
Divergence Signals
Finance positive, Bitcoin negative: Bitcoin may be undervalued relative to macro conditions
Finance negative, Bitcoin positive: Bitcoin may be overextended or decoupling from traditional finance
Important Limitations
This indicator uses some technical and macro data but still has significant gaps:
⚠️ Limited monetary data - missing:
Funding rates (repo, overnight markets)
Comprehensive bond spread analysis
Collateral velocity and quality metrics
Central bank balance sheet details
⚠️ Basic economic coverage - missing:
GDP growth rates
Inflation expectations
Employment data
Manufacturing indices
Consumer confidence
⚠️ Simplified on-chain analysis - missing:
Exchange flow data
Whale wallet movements
Mining difficulty adjustments
Hash rate trends
Network fee dynamics
⚠️ No sentiment data - missing:
Fear & Greed Index
Options positioning
Futures open interest
Social media sentiment
The indicator provides a high-level cycle comparison but should be combined with comprehensive fundamental analysis, detailed on-chain research, and proper risk management.
Settings
Offset: Adjust the horizontal positioning of the indicators (default: 0)
Timeframe: Fixed at 21 days for optimal cycle detection
Use Cases
Macro-crypto correlation analysis: Understand when Bitcoin moves with or against traditional markets
Cycle timing: Identify potential tops and bottoms in both cycles
Risk assessment: Gauge overall market conditions across asset classes
Divergence trading: Spot opportunities when cycles diverge significantly
Portfolio allocation: Balance traditional and crypto assets based on cycle positioning
Technical Notes
Uses Z-score normalization with varying lookback periods (40-60 bars)
Applies HMA (Hull Moving Average) smoothing to reduce noise
Asymmetric multipliers for upside/downside movements in certain metrics
Requires access to FRED economic data, Glassnode, CoinMetrics, and IntoTheBlock feeds
21-day timeframe optimized for cycle analysis
Strategy Applications
This indicator is particularly useful for:
Cross-asset allocation - Decide between traditional finance and crypto exposure
Cycle positioning - Identify where we are in credit/debt cycles vs. Bitcoin cycles
Regime changes - Detect shifts in market leadership and correlation patterns
Risk management - Reduce exposure when both cycles turn negative
Disclaimer: This indicator is a cycle analysis tool and should not be used as the sole basis for investment decisions. It has limited coverage of monetary conditions, economic fundamentals, and on-chain metrics. The indicator provides directional insight but cannot predict exact timing or magnitude of market moves. Always conduct thorough research, consider multiple data sources, and maintain proper risk management in all investment decisions.
2s10s Bull/Bear Steepener/Flattener (Intraday bars)A simple indicator that tracks the curve of the US2y and US10y
Kernel Channel [BackQuant]Kernel Channel
A non-parametric, kernel-weighted trend channel that adapts to local structure, smooths noise without lagging like moving averages, and highlights volatility compressions, expansions, and directional bias through a flexible choice of kernels, band types, and squeeze logic.
What this is
This indicator builds a full trend channel using kernel regression rather than classical averaging. Instead of a simple moving average or exponential weighting, the midline is computed as a kernel-weighted expectation of past values. This allows it to adapt to local shape, give more weight to nearby bars, and reduce distortion from outliers.
You can think of it as a sliding local smoother where you define both the “window” of influence (Window Length) and the “locality strength” (Bandwidth). The result is a flexible midline with optional upper and lower bands derived from kernel-weighted ATR or kernel-weighted standard deviation, letting you visualize volatility in a structurally consistent way.
Three plotting modes help demonstrate this difference:
When the midline is shown alone, you get a smooth, adaptive baseline that behaves almost like a regression moving average, as shown in this view:
When full channels are enabled, you see how standard deviation reacts to local structure with dynamically widening and tightening bands, a mode illustrated here:
When ATR mode is chosen instead of StdDev, band width reflects breadth of movement rather than variance, creating a volatility-aware envelope like the example here:
Why kernels
Classical moving averages allocate fixed weights. Kernels let the user define weighting shape:
Epanechnikov — emphasizes bars near the current bar, fades fast, stable and smooth.
Triangular — linear decay, simple and responsive.
Laplacian — exponential decay from the current point, sharper reactivity.
Cosine — gentle periodic decay, balanced smoothness for trend filters.
Using these in combination with a bandwidth parameter gives fine control over smoothness vs responsiveness. Smaller bandwidths give sharper local sensitivity, larger bandwidths give smoother curvature.
How it works (core logic)
The indicator computes three building blocks:
1) Kernel-weighted midline
For every bar, a sliding window looks back Window Length bars. Each bar in this window receives a kernel weight depending on:
its index distance from the present
the chosen kernel shape
the bandwidth parameter (locality)
Weights form the denominator, weighted values form the numerator, and the resulting ratio is the kernel regression mean. This midline is the central trend.
2) Kernel-based width
You choose one of two band types:
Kernel ATR — ATR values are kernel-averaged, producing a smooth, volatility-based width that is not dependent on variance. Ideal for directional trend channels and regime separation.
Kernel StdDev — local variance around the midline is computed through kernel weighting. This produces a true statistical envelope that narrows in quiet periods and widens in noisy areas.
Width is scaled using Band Multiplier , controlling how far the envelope extends.
3) Upper and lower channels
Provided midline and width exist, the channel edges are:
Upper = midline + bandMult × width
Lower = midline − bandMult × width
These create smooth structures around price that adapt continuously.
Plotting modes
The indicator supports multiple visual styles depending on what you want to emphasize.
When only the midline is displayed, you get a pure kernel trend: a smooth regression-like curve that reacts to local structure while filtering noise, demonstrated here: This provides a clean read on direction and slope.
With full channels enabled, the behavior of the bands becomes visible. Standard deviation mode creates elastic boundaries that tighten during compressions and widen during turbulence, which you can see in the band-focused demonstration: This helps identify expansion events, volatility clusters, and breakouts.
ATR mode shifts interpretation from statistical variance to raw movement amplitude. This makes channels less sensitive to outliers and more consistent across trend phases, as shown in this ATR variation example: This mode is particularly useful for breakout systems and bar-range regimes.
Regime detection and bar coloring
The slope of the midline defines directional bias:
Up-slope → green
Down-slope → red
Flat → gray
A secondary regime filter compares close to the channel:
Trend Up Strong — close above upper band and midline rising.
Trend Down Strong — close below lower band and midline falling.
Trend Up Weak — close between midline and upper band with rising slope.
Trend Down Weak — close between lower band and midline with falling slope.
Compression mode — squeeze conditions.
Bar coloring is optional and can be toggled for cleaner charts.
Squeeze logic
The indicator includes non-standard squeeze detection based on relative width , defined as:
width / |midline|
This gives a dimensionless measure of how “tight” or “loose” the channel is, normalized for trend level.
A rolling window evaluates the percentile rank of current width relative to past behavior. If the width is in the lowest X% of its last N observations, the script flags a squeeze environment. This highlights compression regions that may precede breakouts or regime shifts.
Deviation highlighting
When using Kernel StdDev mode, you may enable deviation flags that highlight bars where price moves outside the channel:
Above upper band → bullish momentum overextension
Below lower band → bearish momentum overextension
This is turned off in ATR mode because ATR widths do not represent distributional variance.
Alerts included
Kernel Channel Long — midline turns up.
Kernel Channel Short — midline turns down.
Price Crossed Midline — crossover or crossunder of the midline.
Price Above Upper — early momentum expansion.
Price Below Lower — downward volatility expansion.
These help automate regime changes and breakout detection.
How to use it
Trend identification
The midline acts as a bias filter. Rising midline means trend strength upward, falling midline means downward behavior. The channel width contextualizes confidence.
Breakout anticipation
Kernel StdDev compressions highlight areas where price is coiling. Breakouts often follow narrow relative width. ATR mode provides structural expansion cues that are smooth and robust.
Mean reversion
StdDev mode is suitable for fade setups. Moves to outer bands during low volatility often revert to the midline.
Continuation logic
If price breaks above the upper band while midline is rising, the indicator flags strong directional expansion. Same logic for breakdowns on the lower band.
Volatility characterization
Kernel ATR maps raw bar movements and is excellent for identifying regime shifts in markets where variance is unstable.
Tuning guidance
For smoother long-term trend tracking
Larger window (150–300).
Moderate bandwidth (1.0–2.0).
Epanechnikov or Cosine kernel.
ATR mode for stable envelopes.
For swing trading / short-term structure
Window length around 50–100.
Bandwidth 0.6–1.2.
Triangular for speed, Laplacian for sharper reactions.
StdDev bands for precise volatility compression.
For breakout systems
Smaller bandwidth for sharp local detection.
ATR mode for stable envelopes.
Enable squeeze highlighting for identifying setups early.
For mean-reversion systems
Use StdDev bands.
Moderate window length.
Highlight deviations to locate overextended bars.
Settings overview
Kernel Settings
Source
Window Length
Bandwidth
Kernel Type (Epanechnikov, Triangular, Laplacian, Cosine)
Channel Width
Band Type (Kernel ATR or Kernel StdDev)
Band Multiplier
Visuals
Show Bands
Color Bars By Regime
Highlight Squeeze Periods
Highlight Deviation
Lookback and Percentile settings
Colors for uptrend, downtrend, squeeze, flat
Trading applications
Trend filtering — trade only in direction of the midline slope.
Breakout confirmation — expansion outside the bands while slope agrees.
Squeeze timing — compression periods often precede the next directional leg.
Volatility-aware stops — ATR mode makes channel edges suitable for adaptive stop placement.
Structural swing mapping — StdDev bands help locate midline pullbacks vs distributional extremes.
Bias rotation — bar coloring highlights when regime shifts occur.
Notes
The Kernel Channel is not a signal generator by itself, but a structural map. It helps classify trend direction, volatility environment, distribution shape, and compression cycles. Combine it with your entry and exit framework, risk parameters, and higher-timeframe confirmation.
It is designed to behave consistently across markets, to avoid the bluntness of classical averages, and to reveal subtle curvature in price that traditional channels miss. Adjust kernel type, bandwidth, and band source to match the noise profile of your instrument, then use squeeze logic and deviation highlighting to guide timing.
Super momentum DBSISuper momentum DBSI: The Ultimate Guide
1. What is this Indicator?
The Super momentum DBSI is a "Consensus Engine." Instead of relying on a single line (like an RSI) to tell you where the market is going, this tool calculates 33 distinct technical indicators simultaneously for every single candle.
It treats the market like a democracy. It asks 33 mathematical "voters" (Momentum, Trend, Volume, Volatility) if they are Bullish or Bearish.
If 30 out of 33 say "Buy," the score is high (Yellow), and the trend is extremely strong.
If only 15 say "Buy," the score is low (Teal), and the trend is weak or choppy.
2. Visual Guide: How to Read the Numbers
The Scores
Top Number (Bears): Represents Selling Pressure.
Bottom Number (Bulls): Represents Buying Pressure.
The Colors (The Traffic Lights)
The colors are your primary signal. They tell you who is currently winning the war.
🟡 YELLOW (Dominance):
This indicates the Winning Side.
If the Bottom Number is Yellow, Bulls are in control.
If the Top Number is Yellow, Bears are in control.
🔴 RED (Weakness):
This appears on the Top. It means Bears are present but losing.
🔵 TEAL (Weakness):
This appears on the Bottom. It means Bulls are present but losing.
3. Trading Strategy
Scenario A: The "Strong Buy" (Long Entry)
The Setup: You are looking for a shift in momentum where Buyers overwhelm Sellers.
Watch the Bottom Number: Wait for it to turn Yellow.
Confirm Strength: Ensure the score is above 15 and rising (e.g., 12 → 18 → 22).
Check the Top: The Top Number should be Red and low (below 10).
Trigger: Enter on the candle close.
Scenario B: The "Strong Sell" (Short Entry)
The Setup: You are looking for Sellers to crush the Buyers.
Watch the Top Number: Wait for it to turn Yellow.
Confirm Strength: Ensure the score is above 15 and rising.
Check the Bottom: The Bottom Number should be Teal and low.
Trigger: Enter on the candle close.
Scenario C: The "No Trade Zone" (Choppy Market)
The Setup: The market is confused.
Visual: Top is Red, Bottom is Teal.
Meaning: NOBODY IS WINNING. There is no Yellow number.
Action: Do not trade. This usually happens during lunch hours, weekends, or right before big news. This filter alone will save you from many false breakouts.
4. What is Inside? (The 33 Indicators)
To give you confidence in the signals, here is exactly what the script is checking:
Group 1: Momentum (Oscillators)
Detects if price is moving fast.
RSI (Relative Strength Index)
CCI (Commodity Channel Index)
Stochastic
Williams %R
Momentum
Rate of Change (ROC)
Ultimate Oscillator
Awesome Oscillator
True Strength Index (TSI)
Stoch RSI
TRIX
Chande Momentum Oscillator
Group 2: Trend Direction
Detects the general path of the market.
13. MACD
14. Parabolic SAR
15. SuperTrend
16. ALMA (Moving Average)
17. Aroon
18. ADX (Directional Movement)
19. Coppock Curve
20. Ichimoku Conversion Line
21. Hull Moving Average
Group 3: Price Action
Detects where price is relative to averages.
22. Price vs EMA 20
23. Price vs EMA 50
24. Price vs EMA 200
Group 4: Volume & Force
Detects if there is money behind the move.
25. Money Flow Index (MFI)
26. On Balance Volume (OBV)
27. Chaikin Money Flow (CMF)
28. VWAP (Intraday)
29. Elder Force Index
30. Ease of Movement
Group 5: Volatility
Detects if price is pushing the outer limits.
31. Bollinger Bands
32. Keltner Channels
33. Donchian Channels
5. Pro Tips for Success
Don't Catch Knives: If the Bear score (Top) is Yellow and 25+, do not try to buy the dip. Wait for the Yellow score to break.
Exit Early: If you are Long and the Yellow Bull score drops from 28 to 15 in one candle, TAKE PROFIT. The momentum has died.
Use Higher Timeframes: This indicator works best on 15m, 1H, and 4H charts. On the 1m chart, it may be too volatile.
Advanced Market Profile & S/R Zones (Pro)Advanced Market Profile & S/R Zones
This indicator brings professional Auction Market Theory to your chart using a custom rolling Volume Profile algorithm. Unlike standard profiles that remain fixed, this tool dynamically calculates the "Fair Value" of the asset based on your specific lookback period (e.g., the last 100 bars).
It automatically highlights the Point of Control (POC), Value Area (VA), and suggests statistical Discount (Buy) and Premium (Sell) zones.
Key Features
Volume Splitting Algorithm:
Most basic scripts dump the entire volume of a candle into a single price point (the average). This script splits the volume across the candle's entire High-Low range. This results in a much smoother, higher-resolution bell curve that accurately reflects price action, especially on higher timeframes like Monthly charts.
Auto-generated Zones:
Green Zone (Discount): Prices below the Value Area Low (VAL). Statistically "cheap."
Red Zone (Premium): Prices above the Value Area High (VAH). Statistically "expensive."
Real-Time Dashboard:
A built-in panel displays the exact price levels for the POC, VAH, and VAL for precise limit order placement, along with the current Market Trend.
How to Use
For Intraday (Day Trading):
Settings: Set Lookback to 100 - 300.
Strategy: Watch for price to open outside the Value Area. If price breaks back inside the Value Area, target the POC (Red Line).
For Macro (Monthly/Weekly Charts):
Settings: Set Lookback to 12 (1 Year) or 60 (5 Years).
Strategy: Identify multi-year structural support. When a monthly candle enters the Green Discount Zone of a 5-year profile, it is often a high-probability institutional entry point.
Trend Logic
The Dashboard indicates trend based on price location relative to value:
Strong Bullish: Price is accepted ABOVE the Value Area.
Strong Bearish: Price is accepted BELOW the Value Area.
Neutral / In VA: Price is chopping inside the Value Area.
Disclaimer
This is a "Rolling Profile." It calculates the profile based on the current lookback window relative to the latest bar. As new bars form, the lookback window shifts, and the profile updates to reflect the new dataset.
Adaptive Trend Compression (Arjo)Adaptive Trend Mapper (ATM) is a multi-purpose trend and momentum tool designed to help traders study trend strength, identify compression phases, and observe shifts in buying and selling pressure. It helps identify emerging breakouts early
The script combines RSI-based momentum, ADX strength, bull/bear pressure indices, and a squeeze-style compression model. It also includes a smoothed trend line based on a SuperSmoother filter and an optional EMA-50 overlay for trend context.
Key Features
Bull & Bear Pressure Index
Derived using ADX and an inverse-RSI approach to highlight directional strength in a normalized scale.
Squeeze & Compression Detection
Detects periods where directional pressure converges while ADX remains weak, often marking low-volatility phases.
Adaptive Smoothing Engine
Bull/Bear indices can be smoothed using SMA/EMA/WMA/RMA, allowing traders to reduce noise when required.
SuperSmoother Trend Line
A filtered trend curve helps highlight short-term directional bias.
Includes color-coding based on trend slope and a wide underlying band for visual clarity.
EMA-50 Option
Standard trend context tool for higher-level direction.
Step-Based Scaling (Optional)
Bull and Bear indices can be rounded to custom step intervals, making them easier to visualize on smaller charts.
How to Use
Rising Bull Index indicates increasing upward pressure .
Rising Bear Index indicates increasing downward pressure .
A squeeze zone marks compression phases where directional conviction is low.
A breakout from a squeeze often aligns with the start of new strong directional movement.
The SuperSmoother trend line helps track micro-trend shifts, while EMA-50 provides macro context.
Disclaimer
This tool is intended for educational and analytical purposes.
It is not a buy/sell signal generator and doesn’t make predictions.
All trading decisions should be based on your own judgment and risk management.
Happy Trading (Arjo)
Advanced Linear Regression Pro [PointAlgo]Advanced Linear Regression Pro is an open-source tool designed to visualize market structure using linear regression, volatility bands, and optional volume-weighted calculations.
The indicator expands the concept of regression channels by adding higher-timeframe confluence, slope analysis, imbalance detection, and breakout highlighting.
Key Features
• Volume-Weighted Regression
Weights the regression curve based on volume to highlight periods of strong participation.
• Dynamic Standard-Deviation Bands
Upper and lower bands are derived from volatility to help visualize potential expansion or contraction zones.
• Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Regression
Plots higher-timeframe regression lines and bands for additional trend context.
• Slope Strength Analysis
Helps identify whether the current regression slope is trending upward, downward, or in a neutral range.
• Order Flow Imbalance Detection
Highlights bars where price and volume move unusually fast, which may indicate liquidity voids or imbalance zones.
• Breakout Markers
Shows simple visual markers when the price closes beyond volatility bands with volume confirmation.
These are visual signals only, not trading signals.
How to Use
This indicator is meant for visual market analysis, such as:
Observing trend direction through regression slope
Spotting volatility expansions
Comparing price against higher-timeframe regression structure
Identifying areas where price moves rapidly with volume
It can be used on any market or timeframe.
No part of this script is intended as financial advice or a complete trading system.
Global M2 ex-China MonitorGlobal M2 Monitor - Ultimate Edition
🎯 OVERVIEW
Advanced global M2 money supply monitoring indicator, offering a unique macroeconomic view of global liquidity. Real-time tracking of M2 evolution in major developed economies.
📊 KEY FEATURES
Global M2 Aggregation : USA, Japan, Canada, Eurozone, United Kingdom
Currency Conversion : All data converted to USD for consistent analysis
High Resolution Display : Daily curve by default
Technical Analysis : 50-period moving average (SMA/EMA/WMA)
Accurate YoY Calculation : Annual variation based on monthly data
Advanced Signal System : Multi-condition color codes
🎨 COLOR SYSTEM - DEFAULT SETTINGS
🟢 GREEN : YoY ≥ 7% AND M2 ≥ SMA → Strong growth + Bullish momentum
🔴 RED : YoY ≤ 2% AND M2 ≤ SMA → Weak growth + Bearish momentum
🟢 LIGHT GREEN : YoY ≥ 7% BUT M2 < SMA → Good fundamentals, temporarily weak momentum
🔴 LIGHT RED : YoY ≤ 2% BUT M2 > SMA → Weak fundamentals, price still supported
🔵 BLUE : YoY between 2% and 7% → Neutral zone of moderate growth
🇨🇳 WHY IS CHINA EXCLUDED BY DEFAULT?
Chinese M2 data presents methodological reliability and transparency issues. Exclusion allows for more consistent analysis of mature market economies.
Different M2 definition vs Western standards
Capital controls affecting real convertibility
Frequent monetary manipulations by authorities
✅ Available option : Can be activated in settings
⚙️ OPTIMIZED DEFAULT PARAMETERS
// DISPLAY SETTINGS
Candle Period: D (Daily)
// MOVING AVERAGE
MA Period: 50, Type: SMA
// BACKGROUND LOGIC
YoY Bullish: 7%, YoY Bearish: 2%
SMA Method: absolute, Threshold: 0.2%
// COLORS
Transparency: 5%
China M2: Disabled
📈 RECOMMENDED USAGE
Traders : Anticipate sector rotations
Investors : Identify abundant/restricted liquidity phases
Macro-analysts : Monitor monetary policy impacts
Portfolio managers : Understand inflationary pressures
🔍 ADVANCED INTERPRETATION
M2 ↗️ + YoY ≥ 7% → Favorable risk-on environment
M2 ↘️ + YoY ≤ 2% → Defensive risk-off environment
Divergences → Early warning signals for trend changes
💡 WHY THIS INDICATOR?
Global money supply is the lifeblood of the financial economy . Its growth or contraction typically precedes market movements by 6 to 12 months.
"Don't fight the Fed... nor the world's central banks"
🛠️ ADVANCED CUSTOMIZATION
All parameters are customizable:
YoY bullish/bearish thresholds
SMA comparison method (absolute/percentage)
Colors and transparency
Moving average period and type
Optional China inclusion
📋 TECHNICAL INFORMATION
YoY Calculation : Based on monthly data for consistency
Sources : FRED, ECONOMICS, official data
Updates : Real-time with publications
Currencies : Updated exchange rates
