Cumulative Value Coin Days DestroyedIndicator overview
CVDD stands for Cumulative Value Coin Days Destroyed.
Coin Days Destroyed is a term used for bitcoin to identify a value of sorts to UTXO’s (unspent transaction outputs). You can learn more about UTXO’s here. They can be thought of as coins moving between wallets.
When coins are sent between wallets, the transaction has:
a USD value
plus, it also destroys a time value in terms of how long the original investor held their coins
That value is Coin Days Destroyed (CDD).
CVDD tracks the cumulative sum of this value-time destruction as coins move from old hands into new hands as a ratio of the market age. It is then multiplied by 6 million, which is a somewhat arbitrary number as it is not linked to any relevant Bitcoin data.
The result is that it has historically correctly forecasted the major lows of Bitcoins price with good accuracy.
To creat a valuating of indicator was used normilized distance between price and CVDD, so the bigger distance of price from CVDD the lower will be value max -1 and vice versa the closes price to CVDD the biggest value max 1
(alert with value)
CVDD was created by @woonomic.
Buscar en scripts para "bitcoin"
Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL)Indicator Overview
This indicator is derived from Market Value and Realized Value, which can be defined as:
Market Value: The current price of Bitcoin multiplied by the number of coins in circulation. This is like market cap in traditional markets i.e. share price multiplied by number of shares.
Realized Value: Rather than taking the current price of Bitcoin, Realized Value takes the price of each Bitcoin when it was last moved i.e. the last time it was sent from one wallet to another wallet. It then adds up all those individual prices and takes an average of them. It then multiplies that average price by the total number of coins in circulation.
By subtracting Realized Value from Market Value we calculate Unrealized Profit/Loss.
Unrealized Profit/Loss estimates the total paper profits/losses in Bitcoin held by investors. This is interesting to know but of greater value is identifying how this changes relatively over time.
To do this we can divide Unrealized Profit/Loss by Market Cap. This creates Net Unrealized Profit/Loss, sometimes referred to as NUPL, which is very useful to track investor sentiment over time for Bitcoin.
Relative Unrealised Profit/Loss is another name used for this analysis.
How To View The Chart
The key principle of this tool is in the ratio between market cap and Bitcoin investors taking profit.
When market cap rises much faster than profit taking we see that the market is overheating, one could say due to investor greed (red band). For the strategic investor such times have historically been favourable to take profit.
We can break down different percentages of Bitcoin Relative Unrealized Profit/Loss to determine what stage of the market we are in. This can be advantageous for the long term strategic investor.
Created By
Tamas Blummer, Tuur Demeester and Michiel Lescrauwaet
ahr999 Index█ OVERVIEW
The ahr999 index is very suitable for long-term value investors in Bitcoin.
When the index is above 1.2, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is rising in a bull market.
When it is below 1.2, it indicates a reasonable cost averaging interval for investment.
When it is below 0.45, it indicates that the price of Bitcoin is underestimated and is a relatively high-certainty bottoming interval.
█ CONCEPTS
ahr999 is the product of two indices, one is Bitcoin's 200-day average price cost and the other is a price estimate fitted to Bitcoin's age.
The average cost is actually a geometric mean of bitcoin price in 200days.
and the estimate price was calculated by a log function based on the bitcoin price history since 2010.
finally we got the formula:
ahr999 Index = (close / GMA200) * (close / Estimate Price)
█ ACKNOWLEDGEMENT
This ahr999 index was originally created by Nine God in his book 《Bitcoin Accumulation》
Crypto Portfolio ManagementCrypto Portfolio Management
This is an indicator not like the other ones that you regularly see in tradingview. The main difference is that this indicator does not plot a value for each candle bar like you would see with RSI or MACD. Actually it is table and it just uses tradingview great database of assets to plot some valuebale information that can not be found elsewhere easily. These metrics are some basic one that is used by portfolio managers to decide what they want to hold in their portfolio. The basic idea is that you should hold assets in your basket that are less correlated to the benchmark.
Benchmark in traditional context refers to main market indices like S&P 500 of US market. But they already have a lot of tools available. My effort was for crypto investors who are trying to rebalance their portfolio every month or week to have some good metrics to make decision. Because of this I used Bitcoin as crypto market benchmark. So, everything is compared to bitcoin in this script. I’m gonna explain the terms that is used in the table’s columns below.
MAKE SURE YOU PUT YOUR CHART AT DAILY AND AT THE MAXIMUM AVAILABLE DATA EXCHANGE.
Y-Exp
This is yearly expected return of the asset. It is simply the mean of the yearly returns of the asset. (these calculations are not typical in Tradingview because mainly we calculate on each bar and give value at the same bar but here this value to change once a year). Remember that the higher this value is the better it is because historically the asset have shown good returns but there is a tip: Always check the available historical data in any asset that you are adding if you add an asset that has only 1 year of data available or you use an exchange data that recently added the coin you will get unsignificant results and the results can not be trusted. You should always selects coins and market (coins can be changed in setting) that have the largest data available.
Y-SDev
This is a little bit complicated than the previous. This is the standard deviation of the yearly returns. This is a classic measure of RISK in financial markets. The higher the value, the more risk is involved with the asset that you have added. If you added two assets that have same returns but different Standard deviations, the rational thinker should choose the asset with lower Standard deviation.
The standard deviation is a good place to start but there are some considerations to have -it is getting complicated and average user should not be involved with these terms and can ignore the next phrases- standard deviation and mean of the yearly returns are random variables, these variables have a theoretical probability density function and these functions are not gaussian normal distribution. Because of this in the professional usage these returns should be transformed to a normal distribution and have all these terms calculated there and then transform back to its own normal state and then be used for any serious investment decision. I think these calculations can be done on Tradingview but I need you support to do this in the form of like and share of my scripts and ideas.
M-Exp and M-SDev
These terms are like the previous ones but it is calculated on monthly returns. As it goes for yearly return, the monthly returns change once a monthly candle closes. So be patient to use this indicator.
I highly recommend not to make decisions on monthly data due to a lot of noise involved with this market but in long run it is ok. So go with yearly returns and wait at least for 3 years to see your results.
CorToBTC
Basically you want to buy something that is less correalted with the benchmark. this is the correlation of the asset to bitcoin.
Sharpe Ratio
This is one of the most used metric as a risk adjusted return measurment. you can google it for more information. The higher this value the better. remmeber with any invenstment it is important to understand risks associated with the assets that you are buying.
DownFromATH
This metric that I didn't see anywhere in the tradingview and is familiar in the platforms like coinmarketcap. this is a real calculation of precentage down from ATH (All Time High). it means how much percentage a coin is down from the maximum price that the asset has experienced until now.
***
Remember you can change all the asset except main asset. If you like this script to 500 I will update this continuously.
BTC HASHRATE DROP: OnchainWhy is the drop of hashrate important?
Drop of hashrate usually occurs because some miners in the mining network stop for working. There are several possible reasons for this. Such as new anti-mining regulations in some countries or a sharp drop in the price of bitcoin, which makes mining no longer affordable for some miners. So they turn off their devices
This reduces the supply of bitcoin in the market and according to the law of supply and demand can eventually lead to an increase in the price of bitcoin.
This oscillator is designed to detect hashrate drop. for this, we use the data of glassnode . Maroon color indicates decrease in hashrate and Red color indicates excessive hash rate drop. As can be seen on the chart, usually after this drop, we see an increase in the price of bitcoin
BTC NVM Ratio - Onchain AnalysisIt is an onchain oscillator and is designed to operate at weekly timeframes and is only for Bitcoin.
Network Value to Metcalfe Ratio (NVM Ratio) is defined as the ratio of the log of market capitalization divided by the log of the square of daily active addresses in the specified window.
This oscillator evaluates bitcoin price according to the Metcalfe Ratio to shows whether the current value of Bitcoin is higher or lower than the real price
I made this comparison using a moving average of 100. The areas that are red in the weekly timeframe indicate that bitcoin is Overvalued. and The areas that are blue in the weekly timeframe indicate that bitcoin is undervalued.
Anchored BTCIntroduce
When looking at altcoins and bitcoins together and seeing coupling and decoupling, we add a bitcoin chart in the "Compare" tab.
We checked where the coupling occurs in "Auto" mode, but if we move the chart, the overlapped position will change.
So I created the “Anchored BTC” indicator, which made the Bitcoin chart immovable.
How to use
First, add a bitcoin chart in the "Compare" tab and compare it with the altcoin chart.
And add the "Correlation Coefficient" built-in indicator to find the part where the correlation coefficient is 0.8 or higher.(it means finding well coupled part)
Among them, set the swing high or swing low part to Time1 and Time2.
Check if it looks the same as the existing BTC chart and you are done.
소개
알트코인과 비트코인을 함께 보며 커플링과 디커플링을 볼 때 우리는 비교 탭에서 비트코인 차트를 추가하여 봅니다.
"오토" 모드로 어느 부분에서 커플링이 일어나는지 체크했는데 차트를 옮기면 겹쳐놓아졌던 위치가 달라지게됩니다.
그래서 "Anchored BTC" 지표를 만들어, 비트코인 차트가 움직이지 못하게 만들었습니다.
사용법
우선 비교탭에서 비트코인차트를 추가하여 알트코인 차트와 비교해봅니다.
그리고 "상관계수" 빌트인 지표를 추가하여 상관계수가 0.8이상인 부분을 찾습니다.(커플링한 부분을 찾는겁니다)
이 중에서 스윙하이나 스윙로우인 부분을 Time1, Time2로 맞춰줍니다.
기존의 BTC차트와 동일하게 보여지는지 확인하면 끝납니다.
HYE Combo Market [Strategy] (Vwap Mean Reversion + Trend Hunter)In this strategy, I used a combination of trend hunter and vwap mean reversion strategies that I published before.
Trend Hunter Strategy:
Mean Reversion Vwap Strategy:
The results are quite impressive, especially for bitcoin.
While the hodl return for bitcoin was 13419%, the strategy's return in the same period was about 5 times (65000%) of this.
s3.tradingview.com
In this combo strategy, I made some changes to the original settings of the strategies used together and added some more new features.
Trend Hunter Strategy Settings: (Original / Combo)
- Slow Tenkansen Period : 9 / 9
- Slow Kijunsen Period : 26 / 13
- Fast Tenkansen Period : 5 / 3
- Fast Kijunsen Period : 13 / 7
- BB Length : 20 / 20
- BB Stdev : 2 / 2
- TSV Length : 13 / 20
- TSV Ema Length : 7 / 7
* I also added a "vidya moving average" to be used as a confirmation tool to open a long position. (Candle close must be above the vidya line.)
Vwap Mean Reversion Strategy Settings: (Original / Combo)
- Small Vwap : 2 / 8
- Big Vwap : 5 / 10
- Percent Below to Buy : 3 / 2
- RSI Period : 2 / 2
- RSI Ema Period : 5 / 5
- Maximum RSI Level for Buy : 30
* I also added a "mean vwap line" to be used for exits in this part of the strategy. In the original version, when small vwap crossovers big vwap, we close the position, but in this strategy we will wait for the close above the mean vwap.
TIPS AND WARNINGS
1-) The standard settings of this combo strategy is designed and tested with daily timeframe. For lower timeframes, you should change the strategy settings and find the best value for yourself.
2-) Only the mean vwap line is displayed on the graph. For a detailed view, you can delete the "//" marks from the plot codes in the strategy code.
3-) This is a strategy for educational and experimental purposes. It cannot be considered as investment advice. You should be careful and make your own risk assessment when opening real market trades using this strategy.
________________________________________________________
Bu stratejide, daha önce yayınladığım trend avcısı ve vwap ortalamaya geri dönüş stratejilerinin bir kombinasyonunu kullandım.
Sonuçlar özellikle bitcoin için oldukça etkileyici.
Bitcoin için hodl getirisi %13419 iken, stratejinin aynı dönemdeki getirisi bunun yaklaşık 5 katı (%65000) idi.
Bu kombo stratejide, birlikte kullanılan stratejilerin orijinal ayarlarında bazı değişiklikler yaptım ve bazı yeni özellikler ekledim.
Trend Avcısı Strateji Ayarları: (Orijinal / Combo)
- Yavaş Tenkansen Periyodu : 9 / 9
- Yavaş Kijunsen Periyodu : 26 / 13
- Hızlı Tenkansen Periyodu : 5 / 3
- Hızlı Kijunsen Periyodu : 13 / 7
- BB Uzunluğu : 20 / 20
- BB Standart Sapması : 2 / 2
- TSV Uzunluğu : 13 / 20
- TSV Ema Uzunluğu : 7 / 7
* Ayrıca long pozisyon açmak için onay aracı olarak kullanılmak üzere "vidya hareketli ortalama" ekledim. (Mum kapanışı vidya çizgisinin üzerinde olmalıdır.)
Vwap Ortalamaya Dönüş Stratejisi Ayarları: (Orijinal / Combo)
- Küçük Vwap : 2 / 8
- Büyük Vwap : 5 / 10
- Alış İçin Gerekli Fark Oranı : 3 / 2
- RSI Periyodu : 2 / 2
- RSI Ema Periyodu: 5 / 5
- Alış için gerekli maksimum RSI seviyesi : 30
* Stratejinin bu bölümünde pozisyondan çıkışlar için kullanılacak bir "ortalama vwap çizgisi" de ekledim. Orijinal versiyonda, küçük vwap, büyük vwap'ı yukarı kestiğinde pozisyonu kapatıyoruz, ancak bu stratejide, ortalama vwap'ın üzerindeki kapanışı bekleyeceğiz.
İPUÇLARI VE UYARILAR
1-) Bu birleşik stratejinin standart ayarları, günlük zaman dilimi ile tasarlanmış ve test edilmiştir. Daha düşük zaman dilimleri için strateji ayarlarını değiştirmeli ve kendiniz için en iyi değeri bulmalısınız.
2-) Grafikte sadece ortalama vwap çizgisi görüntülenir. Ayrıntılı bir görünüm için strateji kodundaki "plot" ile başlayan satırlarda grafikte görünmesini istediğiniz özelliğin önündeki "//" işaretlerini silebilirsiniz.
3-) Eğitim ve deneysel amaçlı bir stratejidir. Yatırım tavsiyesi olarak değerlendirilemez. Bu stratejiyi kullanarak gerçek piyasa işlem açarken dikkatli olmalı ve kendi risk değerlendirmenizi yapmalısınız.
888 BOT #backtest█ 888 BOT #backtest (open source)
This is an Expert Advisor 'EA' or Automated trading script for ‘longs’ and ‘shorts’, which uses only a Take Profit or, in the worst case, a Stop Loss to close the trade.
It's a much improved version of the previous ‘Repanocha’. It doesn`t use 'Trailing Stop' or 'security()' functions (although using a security function doesn`t mean that the script repaints) and all signals are confirmed, therefore the script doesn`t repaint in alert mode and is accurate in backtest mode.
Apart from the previous indicators, some more and other functions have been added for Stop-Loss, re-entry and leverage.
It uses 8 indicators, (many of you already know what they are, but in case there is someone new), these are the following:
1. Jurik Moving Average
It's a moving average created by Mark Jurik for professionals which eliminates the 'lag' or delay of the signal. It's better than other moving averages like EMA , DEMA , AMA or T3.
There are two ways to decrease noise using JMA . Increasing the 'LENGTH' parameter will cause JMA to move more slowly and therefore reduce noise at the expense of adding 'lag'
The 'JMA LENGTH', 'PHASE' and 'POWER' parameters offer a way to select the optimal balance between 'lag' and over boost.
Green: Bullish , Red: Bearish .
2. Range filter
Created by Donovan Wall, its function is to filter or eliminate noise and to better determine the price trend in the short term.
First, a uniform average price range 'SAMPLING PERIOD' is calculated for the filter base and multiplied by a specific quantity 'RANGE MULTIPLIER'.
The filter is then calculated by adjusting price movements that do not exceed the specified range.
Finally, the target ranges are plotted to show the prices that will trigger the filter movement.
Green: Bullish , Red: Bearish .
3. Average Directional Index ( ADX Classic) and ( ADX Masanakamura)
It's an indicator designed by Welles Wilder to measure the strength and direction of the market trend. The price movement is strong when the ADX has a positive slope and is above a certain minimum level 'ADX THRESHOLD' and for a given period 'ADX LENGTH'.
The green color of the bars indicates that the trend is bullish and that the ADX is above the level established by the threshold.
The red color of the bars indicates that the trend is down and that the ADX is above the threshold level.
The orange color of the bars indicates that the price is not strong and will surely lateralize.
You can choose between the classic option and the one created by a certain 'Masanakamura'. The main difference between the two is that in the first it uses RMA () and in the second SMA () in its calculation.
4. Parabolic SAR
This indicator, also created by Welles Wilder, places points that help define a trend. The Parabolic SAR can follow the price above or below, the peculiarity that it offers is that when the price touches the indicator, it jumps to the other side of the price (if the Parabolic SAR was below the price it jumps up and vice versa) to a distance predetermined by the indicator. At this time the indicator continues to follow the price, reducing the distance with each candle until it is finally touched again by the price and the process starts again. This procedure explains the name of the indicator: the Parabolic SAR follows the price generating a characteristic parabolic shape, when the price touches it, stops and turns ( SAR is the acronym for 'stop and reverse'), giving rise to a new cycle. When the points are below the price, the trend is up, while the points above the price indicate a downward trend.
5. RSI with Volume
This indicator was created by LazyBear from the popular RSI .
The RSI is an oscillator-type indicator used in technical analysis and also created by Welles Wilder that shows the strength of the price by comparing individual movements up or down in successive closing prices.
LazyBear added a volume parameter that makes it more accurate to the market movement.
A good way to use RSI is by considering the 50 'RSI CENTER LINE' centerline. When the oscillator is above, the trend is bullish and when it is below, the trend is bearish .
6. Moving Average Convergence Divergence ( MACD ) and ( MAC-Z )
It was created by Gerald Appel. Subsequently, the histogram was added to anticipate the crossing of MA. Broadly speaking, we can say that the MACD is an oscillator consisting of two moving averages that rotate around the zero line. The MACD line is the difference between a short moving average 'MACD FAST MA LENGTH' and a long moving average 'MACD SLOW MA LENGTH'. It's an indicator that allows us to have a reference on the trend of the asset on which it is operating, thus generating market entry and exit signals.
We can talk about a bull market when the MACD histogram is above the zero line, along with the signal line, while we are talking about a bear market when the MACD histogram is below the zero line.
There is the option of using the MAC-Z indicator created by LazyBear, which according to its author is more effective, by using the parameter VWAP ( volume weighted average price ) 'Z-VWAP LENGTH' together with a standard deviation 'STDEV LENGTH' in its calculation.
7. Volume Condition
Volume indicates the number of participants in this war between bulls and bears, the more volume the more likely the price will move in favor of the trend. A low trading volume indicates a lower number of participants and interest in the instrument in question. Low volumes may reveal weakness behind a price movement.
With this condition, those signals whose volume is less than the volume SMA for a period 'SMA VOLUME LENGTH' multiplied by a factor 'VOLUME FACTOR' are filtered. In addition, it determines the leverage used, the more volume , the more participants, the more probability that the price will move in our favor, that is, we can use more leverage. The leverage in this script is determined by how many times the volume is above the SMA line.
The maximum leverage is 8.
8. Bollinger Bands
This indicator was created by John Bollinger and consists of three bands that are drawn superimposed on the price evolution graph.
The central band is a moving average, normally a simple moving average calculated with 20 periods is used. ('BB LENGTH' Number of periods of the moving average)
The upper band is calculated by adding the value of the simple moving average X times the standard deviation of the moving average. ('BB MULTIPLIER' Number of times the standard deviation of the moving average)
The lower band is calculated by subtracting the simple moving average X times the standard deviation of the moving average.
the band between the upper and lower bands contains, statistically, almost 90% of the possible price variations, which means that any movement of the price outside the bands has special relevance.
In practical terms, Bollinger bands behave as if they were an elastic band so that, if the price touches them, it has a high probability of bouncing.
Sometimes, after the entry order is filled, the price is returned to the opposite side. If price touch the Bollinger band in the same previous conditions, another order is filled in the same direction of the position to improve the average entry price, (% MINIMUM BETTER PRICE ': Minimum price for the re-entry to be executed and that is better than the price of the previous position in a given %) in this way we give the trade a chance that the Take Profit is executed before. The downside is that the position is doubled in size. 'ACTIVATE DIVIDE TP': Divide the size of the TP in half. More probability of the trade closing but less profit.
█ STOP LOSS and RISK MANAGEMENT.
A good risk management is what can make your equity go up or be liquidated.
The % risk is the percentage of our capital that we are willing to lose by operation. This is recommended to be between 1-5%.
% Risk: (% Stop Loss x % Equity per trade x Leverage) / 100
First the strategy is calculated with Stop Loss, then the risk per operation is determined and from there, the amount per operation is calculated and not vice versa.
In this script you can use a normal Stop Loss or one according to the ATR. Also activate the option to trigger it earlier if the risk percentage is reached. '% RISK ALLOWED'
'STOP LOSS CONFIRMED': The Stop Loss is only activated if the closing of the previous bar is in the loss limit condition. It's useful to prevent the SL from triggering when they do a ‘pump’ to sweep Stops and then return the price to the previous state.
█ BACKTEST
The objective of the Backtest is to evaluate the effectiveness of our strategy. A good Backtest is determined by some parameters such as:
- RECOVERY FACTOR: It consists of dividing the 'net profit' by the 'drawdown’. An excellent trading system has a recovery factor of 10 or more; that is, it generates 10 times more net profit than drawdown.
- PROFIT FACTOR: The ‘Profit Factor’ is another popular measure of system performance. It's as simple as dividing what win trades earn by what loser trades lose. If the strategy is profitable then by definition the 'Profit Factor' is going to be greater than 1. Strategies that are not profitable produce profit factors less than one. A good system has a profit factor of 2 or more. The good thing about the ‘Profit Factor’ is that it tells us what we are going to earn for each dollar we lose. A profit factor of 2.5 tells us that for every dollar we lose operating we will earn 2.5.
- SHARPE: (Return system - Return without risk) / Deviation of returns.
When the variations of gains and losses are very high, the deviation is very high and that leads to a very poor ‘Sharpe’ ratio. If the operations are very close to the average (little deviation) the result is a fairly high 'Sharpe' ratio. If a strategy has a 'Sharpe' ratio greater than 1 it is a good strategy. If it has a 'Sharpe' ratio greater than 2, it is excellent. If it has a ‘Sharpe’ ratio less than 1 then we don't know if it is good or bad, we have to look at other parameters.
- MATHEMATICAL EXPECTATION: (% winning trades X average profit) + (% losing trades X average loss).
To earn money with a Trading system, it is not necessary to win all the operations, what is really important is the final result of the operation. A Trading system has to have positive mathematical expectation as is the case with this script: ME = (0.87 x 30.74$) - (0.13 x 56.16$) = (26.74 - 7.30) = 19.44$ > 0
The game of roulette, for example, has negative mathematical expectation for the player, it can have positive winning streaks, but in the long term, if you continue playing you will end up losing, and casinos know this very well.
PARAMETERS
'BACKTEST DAYS': Number of days back of historical data for the calculation of the Backtest.
'ENTRY TYPE': For '% EQUITY' if you have $ 10,000 of capital and select 7.5%, for example, your entry would be $ 750 without leverage. If you select CONTRACTS for the 'BTCUSDT' pair, for example, it would be the amount in 'Bitcoins' and if you select 'CASH' it would be the amount in $ dollars.
'QUANTITY (LEVERAGE 1X)': The amount for an entry with X1 leverage according to the previous section.
'MAXIMUM LEVERAGE': It's the maximum allowed multiplier of the quantity entered in the previous section according to the volume condition.
The settings are for Bitcoin at Binance Futures (BTC: USDTPERP) in 15 minutes.
For other pairs and other timeframes, the settings have to be adjusted again. And within a month, the settings will be different because we all know the market and the trend are changing.
BTC Volume Contango IndexBased on my previous script "BTC Contango Index" which was inspired by a Twitter post by Byzantine General:
This is a script that shows the contango between spot and futures volumes of Bitcoin to identify overbought and oversold conditions. When a market is in contango, the volume of a futures contract is higher than the spot volume. Conversely, when a market is in backwardation, the volume of the futures contract is lower than the spot volume.
The aggregate daily volumes on top exchanges are taken to obtain Total Spot Volume and Total Futures Volume. The script then plots (Total Futures Volume/Total Spot Volume) - 1 to illustrate the percent difference (contango) between spot and futures volumes of Bitcoin. This data by itself is useful, but because aggregate futures volumes are so much larger than spot volumes, no negative values are produced. To correct for this, the Z-score of contango is taken. The Z-score (z) of a data item x measures the distance (in standard deviations StdDev) and direction of the item from its mean (U):
Z-score = (x - U) / StDev
A value of zero indicates that the data item x is equal to the mean U, while positive or negative values show that the data item is above or below the mean (x Values of +2 and -2 show that the data item is two standard deviations above or below the chosen mean, respectively, and over 95.5% of all data items are contained within these two horizontal references). We substitute x with volume contango C, the mean U with simple moving average ( SMA ) of n periods (50), and StdDev with the standard deviation of closing contango for n periods (50), so the above formula becomes: Z-score = (C - SMA (50)) / StdDev(C,50).
When in contango, Bitcoin may be overbought.
When in backwardation, Bitcoin may be oversold.
The current bar calculation will always look incorrect due to TV plotting the Z-score before the bar closes.
BTC Contango IndexInspired by a Twitter post by Byzantine General:
This is a script that shows the contango between spot and futures prices of Bitcoin to identify overbought and oversold conditions. Contango and backwardation are terms used to define the structure of the forward curve. When a market is in contango, the forward price of a futures contract is higher than the spot price. Conversely, when a market is in backwardation, the forward price of the futures contract is lower than the spot price.
The aggregate prices on top exchanges are taken and then averaged to obtain a Spot Average and a Futures Average. The script then plots (Futures Average/Spot Average) - 1 to illustrate the percent difference (contango) between spot and futures prices of Bitcoin.
When in contango, Bitcoin may be overbought.
When in backwardation, Bitcoin may be oversold.
StonkBTC - autoswitch secondary series for scalpersSince the drop in March of 2020, the U.S. ETF , SPY, has been correlated with bitcoin's moves, especially during the NY session.
This tool is meant to help traders who want to take advantage of that without having to switch the secondary series between BTCUSD and (generally) SPY when changing the ticker they are viewing.
How this works:
The indicator will automatically switch between bitcoin or equity index depending on what ticker your current chart is. Ideally this tool would be very simple to use.
Options:
Show/hide a 'track price' line
Index choice of SP500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000. Further selection by ETF, futures, and CFD
Varied bitcoin price sources
Notes:
You will need a separate subscription to TradingView to view realtime CME futures data (if not, it will be delayed by 10 minutes). Because of this, the default option chosen is the CFD for the most complete chart when viewing bitcoin.
NY Core Trading Session: 9:30 a.m. to 4:00 p.m. ET
www.nyse.com
Stock to Flow Model with Standard Deviation BandsThis Study takes the Stock to Flow Model for Bitcoin as presented by 100trillionUSD and smoothes it using an SMA. Then it calculates the close's standard deviation from it and displays the 2-Sigma Bands.
The stock to flow model seems to be one of the best predictions of Bitcoins price.
The standard deviation bands are supposed to show situations in which Bitcoin is significantly over- or under-bought.
COT Commercial Positions (Updated)
This script aims to look at the markets from a manufacturer's point of view.
Producers or large enterprises gradually sell their goods as the price increases.
Because both the amount of product and position in their hands is too high, otherwise they can not find buyers, and they have to make a safe profit.
Therefore, I have shown short positions in green and long positions in red.
Blue is the net position formed by subtracting long positions from short positions.
This script is created with the latest Quandl data number codes.
Please let me know if you see a missing or a code update.
I recommend using it in a weekly (1W) time frame.
CAUTION : Since Bitcoin producer positions are very sparse, speculative long positions have been preferred in Bitcoin.
If you're looking for Bitcoin,
select Bitcoin from the menu.
Regards.
Mayer MultiplerThe ‘Mayer Multiple’ is one of the most popular metrics and derives from the current price divided by the 200-day moving average (200-MA). The average value is 1.39, and historically, when it becomes equal to or greater than 2.4 it will retrace to under 1.5.
Simulations performed by Trace Mayer determined that in the past, the best long-term results were achieved by accumulating Bitcoin whenever the Mayer Multiple was below 2.4.
Since the simulations were based on historical data, they are purely educational and should not be the basis of any financial decision.
Credit:
bitcoinist.com
mayermultiple.info
10/20 MA Cross-Over with Heikin-Ashi Signals by SchobbejakThe 10/20 MA Heikin-Ashi Strategy is the best I know. It's easy, it's elegant, it's effective.
It's particularly effective in markets that trend on the daily. You may lose some money when markets are choppy, but your loss will be more than compensated when you're aboard during the big moves at the beginning of a trend or after retraces. There's that, and you nearly eliminate the risk of losing your profit in the long run.
The results are good throughout most assets, and at their best when an asset is making new all-time highs.
It uses two simple moving averages: the 10 MA (blue), and the 20 MA (red), together with heikin-ashi candles. Now here's the great thing. This script does not change your regular candles into heikin-ashi ones, which would have been annoying; instead, it subtly prints either a blue dot or a red square around your normal candles, indicating a heikin-ashi change from red to green, or from green to red, respectively. This way, you get both regular and heikin ashi "candles" on your chart.
Here's how to use it.
Go LONG in case of ALL of the below:
1) A blue dot appeared under the last daily candle (meaning the heikin-ashi is now "green").
2) The blue MA-line is above the red MA-line.
3) Price has recently breached the blue MA-line upwards, and is now above.
COVER when one or more of the above is no longer the case. This is very important. You want to keep your profit.
Go SHORT in case of ALL of the below:
1) A red square appeared above the last daily candle (meaning the heikin-ashi is now "red").
2) The red MA-line is above the blue MA-line.
3) Price has recently breached the blue MA-line downwards, and is now below.
Again, COVER when one or more of the above is no longer the case. This is what gives you your edge.
It's that easy.
Now, why did I make the signal blue, and not green? Because blue looks much better with red than green does. It's my firm believe one does not become rich using ugly charts.
Good luck trading.
--You may tip me using bitcoin: bc1q9pc95v4kxh6rdxl737jg0j02dcxu23n5z78hq9 . Much appreciated!--
[Prod] SuperTrend with Stoploss+TrendZones - 1HHere, i'm using a SuperTrend (difference of moving averages) crossover strategy hybrid with stop-loss and trend-following to look at backtesting for the BCHUSD pair on the coinbase (GDAX) exchange.
Included in this script I've got some optimized parameters that seem to make a decent profit over ~35+ trades. The one thing that's bothering me here is that I get OCCASIONAL repaint issues with back-testing, but I can't figure out why for the life of me, because i'm using V3 in the start of the script. If someone could point out the mistake I may be making here , I feel like this could be a serious strategy to use against the BCHUSD pair on coinbase or other exchanges (with tuning of course).
I based this script off of with lots of modifications.
Trend LengthScript tries to capture the length of trends. It calculates an SMA and then determines the slope of the SMA using a simple momentum function. From there it counts bars from when the slope changed directions last. The lime green line is the count from when the slope changed. The yellow line is the average time of a trend. The white line is "trying" to capture the length of a full healthy pip running trend. Pick and SMA you like and then run through many currencies. I find that trends tend to be the same length. Not surprising as the markets are extremely correlated to each other. The trick is to find the most active pair for action. To do that look up my Pairs Range script.
Comments are welcome.
BTC - Power Law 1.5: Dynamic 50/50 Decay OVERVIEW
Most Bitcoin models treat the asset as if it exists in a vacuum of infinite exponential growth. The classical Power Law (v1.0) was a groundbreaking start, but as Bitcoin matures into a multi-trillion dollar institutional asset, our models must account for the laws of physics and liquidity. The Power Law 1.5: Dynamic 50/50 Decay is a second-generation structural engine. It doesn't just draw a line; it calculates the structural "Center of Gravity" of Bitcoin’s adoption curve while accounting for the natural maturation (decay) of the network’s growth speed.
THE MATHEMATICAL BACKBONE: QUANTILE MEDIAN CALCULATION
The "Fair Value" line (blue) is derived using a Log-Log Linear Regression focused on the 50th percentile (Median). The script first transforms the price and the time (days since the Genesis Block) into a logarithmic scale. It then calculates a power-law constant by finding the Absolute Least Deviation across the entire historical dataset since 2011. Specifically, it uses the formula: Price = 10^(Intercept + Slope * log10(Days)) . To ensure the line is a true median, the script calculates the Median Offset of every historical price point from the raw regression line. By shifting the intercept by this median value, we guarantee that exactly 50% of all weekly bars fall above the curve and 50% fall below it, creating a robust, non-biased structural center.
THE ALPHA SHADOW: DYNAMIC EXPONENT PROJECTION
Unlike standard power-law projections that rely on a static slope, the "Alpha Shadow" (the projection extending from the blue backbone) utilizes a Time-Varying Exponent Model . The model acknowledges that Bitcoin's growth speed—the exponent 'b'—is a decaying function of time, reflecting the diminishing returns of a maturing asset. The script recalculated the Instantaneous Slope on every single bar using the formula: Future_Slope = Initial_Slope - (Decay_Rate * log10(Total_Days_from_Genesis)) . While the Decay Rate (default 0.045) serves as a structural sensitivity constant, its application ensures the growth speed is a dynamic variable rather than a fixed number. Each segment of the dashed green "Shadow" is a unique power-law arc calculated for its specific future time window. This ensures the projection isn't just a straight line drawn on a log chart, but a mathematically tethered curve that "feels" the weight of increasing market capitalization and respects the reality of global liquidity constraints as we approach 2029.
HOW TO READ THE CHART
• The Backbone (Solid Blue): This is the 50/50 Fair Value. When price is below this line, Bitcoin is structurally "cheap." When price is far above it, the asset is in a state of cyclical expansion.
• The Alpha Shadow (Green): This is the mathematical projection of the current curve into 2029. It shows the path of "Fair Value" as the network continues to mature.
• The Regime Audit (Dashboard): A real-time table in the middle-right of your chart provides an audit of the model's integrity, including the current slope (b) and the projected Fair Price for Jan 1, 2029.
WHY THIS IS "FRESH"
Most open-source Power Law scripts on TradingView utilize a Static Linear Regression —calculating a single constant slope that is applied equally to 2011 and 2029. Furthermore, common community models often rely on "Outer Band" fitting (connecting historical cycle peaks to cycle lows). While visually appealing, these methods can be highly sensitive to "Black Swan" outliers and often assume Bitcoin’s growth velocity is a permanent constant.
This script stands out by introducing a Maturation Framework . Instead of fitting to volatile extremes, we anchor the logic to a 50/50 Quantile Median , creating a backbone that is mathematically centered regardless of cyclical noise. By then applying a Dynamic Decay Factor to the growth exponent, we move away from the "static bands" approach and toward a model that respects the physical reality of a maturing, multi-trillion-dollar asset class. This provides a structurally grounded, institutional-grade view of Bitcoin’s trajectory that accounts for the diminishing returns inherent in global adoption.
DISCLAIMER
This script is for educational and macro-analytical purposes only. It does not constitute financial advice. The 2029 projection is a mathematical extrapolation based on historical data and decay constants; it is not a guarantee of future price action.
TAGS
bitcoin, powerlaw, macro, regression, fairvalue, btc, projection, quantitative, math, structural, Rob Maths, robmaths, Rob_Maths
BTCUSD BOS & Liquidity MapBTCUSD is trading inside a high‑volume range after a clear series of Breaks of Structure (BOS) from the recent distribution zone into the current demand area. This chart highlights the key liquidity sweep, consolidation blocks and volume clusters that are likely to drive the next impulsive move.
Structure: Market shifted from a strong bullish leg into a clean bearish redistribution, confirmed by multiple BOS signals on the higher‑timeframe structure.
Liquidity: Price swept resting liquidity below prior lows and is now holding above the marked support band (89,270 – 88,300), suggesting absorption by buyers rather than continuation selling.
Volume profile: Visible Volume Profile shows heavy participation at the current range, reinforcing this zone as a potential accumulation area before a directional break.
Key levels:
Resistance zone: 97,950 – 98,300 (major supply and previous distribution ceiling).
Support zone: 89,270 – 88,300 (key demand and liquidity grab area).
Idea: As long as price holds above the support band, a reactive bullish leg back toward the resistance zone remains on the table. A clean break and acceptance below support would invalidate the bullish bias and open room for a deeper downside continuation.
This chart is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Use it as a framework for your own entries, confirmations and risk management on BTCUSD.
BTC/XAU Correlation Crossing Delay PerformanceOVERVIEW
The BTC/XAU Correlation Crossing Delay Performance indicator is a specialized macro-tool designed to track the structural relationship between Bitcoin (Digital Gold) and Physical Gold. In institutional finance, these two assets represent the "Scarcity Complex." While they are often viewed as similar, they move in distinct Regime Shifts . This script identifies the exact moments of correlation decoupling—historically a lead indicator for major Bitcoin volatility and catch-up rallies.
THE IDEA: THE DECOUPLING SIGNAL
Traditional safe havens like Gold often act as a "Smoke Alarm" for geopolitical fear. Bitcoin, however, functions more as a "Fire Department" for global liquidity expansion. When the 52-week correlation between the two drops to zero or below, it signals a structural divergence.
Data from the past can suggest that such "Zero-Cross" events occur when Gold has front-run a price move, leaving Bitcoin at a relative valuation discount. This script marks these "Regime Shifts" (M-Markers) and measures the subsequent performance during a customizable Alpha Window .
CALCULATIONS & METHODOLOGY
The script utilizes the following logic to generate its data points:
• Purchasing Power Ratio: Calculated as Bitcoin Price divided by Gold Price. This shows exactly how many ounces of gold 1 BTC can buy.
• Pearson Correlation: A rolling 52-week calculation measuring the linear relationship between BTC and Gold prices.
• Zero-Cross Signal: A logic trigger/Marker that fires when the correlation value drops from a positive state to zero or a negative value.(M1 - M-n)
• Alpha Performance: A secondary calculation that captures the BTC price at the signal bar and compares it to the price exactly N-weeks later.
HOW TO READ THE CHART
• Orange Line: The current BTC/Gold ratio. A rising line means Bitcoin is gaining purchasing power against Gold.
• Orange Vertical Shapes (M-n): These mark the "M-Signals" where correlation broke (correlation ratio turned from positive to 0 or below on that bar). This is the "coiled spring" phase.
• Blue Vertical Shapes (Result): These appear after your defined Alpha Window (e.g., 12 weeks). They display the percentage change for both the Ratio and BTC/USD price since the M-n-signal.
• Blue Area (middle Lane): A visualization of the raw correlation value. When this cloud disappears toward the zero-level, a regime shift is in progress.
USER INPUTS
• Tickers: Choose your preferred Bitcoin and Gold sources (e.g., INDEX:BTCUSD or TVC:GOLD).
• Correlation Lookback: Default is 52 weeks, the institutional standard for measuring annual macro cycles.
• Alpha Window: Define the number of weeks (e.g., 12) you wish to track after a decoupling signal to verify historical catch-up trends.
TIMEFRAME
I view the data on the weekly timeframe. The script is optimized to run on this timeframe.
DISCLAIMER
This script is provided for educational and research purposes only. Correlation shifts are indicators of market structure changes and do not guarantee future price direction. Past performance of the BTC/Gold ratio is not an indicator of future results. Always use comprehensive risk management when trading high-volatility assets.
TAGS
Rob Maths, robmaths, Rob_Maths, Bitcoin, Gold, Ratio, Correlation, Macro
Support/Resistance + Weekend CME Gaps (Full Fill + Text)This indicator shows Support and Resistance Level of Bitcoin.
It also shows WeekEnd CME Gaps (Gap between Friday Close and Sunday Open )
It has an option to delete the CME Gap box if it is filled.
CME Gap box is in yellow color.
Please Note: In order to use the CME Gap Feature, Your TradingView account should Show CME Gap Charts (CME: BTC1!)
CME Gap Settiings You Can Define
- CME Gap TimeFrame (60, 120) : 60 For 1 Hour and 120 for 4 hour
- Max CME Gap Boxes on Chart : This controls how many old CME gap zones are allowed to stay visible at the same time.
