First presented FVG (w/stats) w/statistical hourly ranges & biasOverview
This indicator identifies the first Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms during each hourly session and provides comprehensive statistical analysis based on 12 years of historical NASDAQ (NQ) data. It combines price action analysis with probability-based statistics to help traders make informed decisions.
⚠️ IMPORTANT - Compatibility
Market: This indicator is designed exclusively for NASDAQ futures (NQ/MNQ)
Timeframe: Statistical data is based on FVGs formed on the 5-minute timeframe
FVG Detection: Works on any timeframe, but use 5-minute for accuracy matching the statistical analysis
All hardcoded statistics are derived from 12 years of NQ historical data
What It Does
1. FVG Detection & Visualization
Automatically detects the first FVG (bullish or bearish) that forms each hour
Draws colored boxes around FVGs:
Blue boxes = Bullish FVG (gap up)
Red boxes = Bearish FVG (gap down)
FVG boxes extend to the end of the hour
Optional midpoint lines show the center of each FVG
Uses volume imbalance logic (outside prints) to refine FVG boundaries
2. Hourly Reference Lines
Vertical Delimiter: Marks the start of each hour
Hourly Open Line: Shows where the current hour opened
Expected Range Lines: Projects the anticipated high/low based on historical data
Choose between Mean (average) or Median (middle value) statistics
Upper range line (teal/green)
Lower range line (red)
All lines span exactly one hour from the moment it opens
Optional labels show price values at line ends
3. Real-Time Statistics Table
The table displays live data for the current hour only:
Hour: Current hour in 12-hour format (AM/PM)
FVG Status: Shows if a Bull FVG, Bear FVG, or no FVG has formed yet
Green background = Bullish FVG detected
Red background = Bearish FVG detected
1st 15min: Direction of the first 15 minutes (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral/Pending)
Continuation %: Historical probability that the hour continues in the first 15-minute direction
Color-coded: Green for bullish, red for bearish
Avg Range %: Expected percentage range for the current hour (based on 12-year mean)
FVG Effect %: Historical probability that FVG direction predicts hourly close direction
Shows BISI→Bull % for bullish FVGs
Shows SIBI→Bear % for bearish FVGs
Blank if no FVG has formed yet
Time Left: Countdown timer showing MM:SS remaining in the hour (updates in real-time)
Hourly Bias: Historical directional tendency (bullish % or bearish %)
H Open: Current hour's opening price
Exp Range: Projected price range (Low - High) based on historical average
Customization Options
Detection Settings:
Lower Timeframe Selection (15S, 1min, 5min) - controls FVG detection granularity
Display Settings:
FVG box colors (bullish/bearish)
Midpoint lines (show/hide, color, style)
Table Settings:
Position (9 locations: corners, edges, center)
Text size (Tiny, Small, Normal, Large)
Hourly Lines:
Toggle each line type on/off
Hour delimiter (color, width)
Open line (color, width, style)
Range lines (color, width, style)
Choose Mean or Median statistics for range calculation
Show/hide labels with customizable text size
How to Use
Apply to NQ futures chart (NQ1! or MNQ1!)
Set chart to 5-minute timeframe for optimal FVG detection matching the statistical data
Watch for the first FVG to form each hour
Reference the table for probability-based decision support:
High continuation % = strong directional bias
FVG Effect % shows reliability of the FVG signal
Time Left helps manage entries/exits within the hour
Use range lines as potential targets or reversal zones
Statistical Foundation
All statistics are derived from:
12 years of NASDAQ (NQ) historical data
Hourly analysis of FVG formation patterns
First 15-minute directional analysis
Mean and Median calculations for range expectations
Data encompasses 2,400+ samples per hour
Best Practices
✅ Use on NQ/MNQ futures only
✅ Best on 5-minute charts (matches statistical data)
✅ Combine FVG signals with continuation probabilities
✅ Use range lines as potential profit targets
✅ Watch the countdown timer for hour-end setups
❌ Do not use on other markets (statistics won't apply)
❌ Avoid using during low-liquidity hours (5PM ET has minimal data)
Technical Notes
Timezone: America/New_York (EST/EDT)
Weekend filtering: Automatically hides data during market closure
Updates in real-time on live bars
Maximum 500 boxes/lines for performance
FVG detection includes volume imbalance (body gap) refinement
Credits
Statistical analysis based on 12 years of NASDAQ historical data. FVG detection methodology follows ICT concepts with volume imbalance refinement.
Disclaimer: This indicator provides statistical analysis based on historical data. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management.
Would you like me to adjust any section or add/remove anything?6-9 Session & Levels - Customizable Range Analysis Indicator
Description:
This indicator provides comprehensive session-based range analysis designed for intraday traders. It calculates and displays key levels based on a customizable session period (default 6:00-9:00 AM ET).
Core Features:
Sespastedthis is a summary for another indicator- i was hoping for something more like this in terms of content etc22:23Architected comprehensive indicator summary matching professional documentation style.The user wants me to rewrite the summary for their FVG indicator in a similar style to the example provided. The example is more structured, detailed, and professional. Let me create a comprehensive summary that follows that format:
Clear title
Description/Overview
Core Features (broken down into sections)
Input Settings Explained (detailed breakdown of all customization options)
How It Works section
Use Case
Note/Disclaimer
Let me make it thorough and match the style while being accurate to their indicator's functionality.Here's a detailed summary in that format:
Every Hour 1st FVG with Statistical Analysis - NASDAQ Hourly Trading Intelligence
Description:
This indicator identifies the first Fair Value Gap (FVG) that forms during each hourly session and provides comprehensive probability-based statistical analysis derived from 12 years of NASDAQ (NQ) historical data. It combines real-time FVG detection with hardcoded statistical probabilities to help intraday traders make informed decisions based on historical patterns and hourly price action dynamics.
IMPORTANT: This indicator is specifically calibrated for NASDAQ futures (NQ/MNQ) only. All statistical data is derived from 12 years of NQ historical analysis with FVGs detected on the 5-minute timeframe. Using this indicator on other markets will produce invalid statistical results.
Core Features:
FVG Detection & Visualization
Automatically detects and displays the first Fair Value Gap (bullish or bearish) that forms within each hourly session
Color-coded boxes mark FVG zones: Blue for bullish FVGs (gap up), Red for bearish FVGs (gap down)
FVG boxes extend precisely to the end of the hour boundary
Optional midpoint lines show the center point of each FVG
Uses volume imbalance logic (outside prints) to refine FVG boundaries beyond simple wick-to-wick gaps
Supports both chart timeframe detection and lower timeframe detection via request.security_lower_tf
Hourly Reference Lines
Vertical Hour Delimiter: Marks the exact start of each new hour with an extendable vertical line
Hourly Open Line: Displays the opening price of the current hour
Expected Range Lines: Projects anticipated high and low levels based on 12 years of statistical data
Choose between Mean (average) or Median (middle value) calculations
Upper range line shows expected high
Lower range line shows expected low
All lines span exactly one hour from open to close
Optional labels display exact price values at the end of each line
Real-Time Statistics Table
Displays comprehensive live data for the current hour only:
Hour: Current hour in 12-hour format (e.g., "9AM", "2PM")
FVG Status: Shows detection state with color coding
"None Yet" (white background) - No FVG detected
"Bull FVG" (green background) - Bullish FVG identified
"Bear FVG" (red background) - Bearish FVG identified
1st 15min: Direction of first 15 minutes (Bullish/Bearish/Neutral/Pending)
Continuation %: Historical probability that the hour closes in the direction of the first 15 minutes
Green background with up arrow (↑) for bullish continuation probability
Red background with down arrow (↓) for bearish continuation probability
Avg Range %: Expected percentage range for the current hour based on 12-year mean
FVG Effect %: Historical effectiveness of FVG directional prediction
Shows "BISI→Bull %" for bullish FVGs (gap up predicting bullish hourly close)
Shows "SIBI→Bear %" for bearish FVGs (gap down predicting bearish hourly close)
Displays blank if no FVG has formed yet
Time Left: Real-time countdown timer showing minutes and seconds remaining in the hour (MM:SS format)
Hourly Bias: Historical directional tendency showing bullish or bearish percentage bias
H Open: Current hour's opening price
Exp Range: Projected price range showing "Low - High" based on selected statistic (mean or median)
Input Settings Explained:
Detection Settings
Lower Timeframe: Select the base timeframe for FVG detection
Options: 15S (15 seconds), 1 (1 minute), 5 (5 minutes)
Recommendation: Use 5-minute to match the statistical data sample
The indicator uses this timeframe to scan for FVG patterns even when viewing higher timeframes
Display Settings
Bullish FVG Color: Set the color and transparency for bullish (upward) FVG boxes
Bearish FVG Color: Set the color and transparency for bearish (downward) FVG boxes
Show Midpoint Lines: Toggle horizontal lines at the center of each FVG box
Midpoint Line Color: Customize the midpoint line color
Midpoint Line Style: Choose between Solid, Dotted, or Dashed line styles
Table Settings
Table Position: Choose from 9 locations:
Top: Left, Center, Right
Middle: Left, Center, Right
Bottom: Left, Center, Right
Table Text Size: Select from Tiny, Small, Normal, or Large for readability on different screen sizes
Hourly Lines Settings
Show Hourly Lines: Master toggle for all hourly reference lines
Show Hour Delimiter: Toggle the vertical line marking each hour's start
Delimiter Color: Customize color and transparency
Delimiter Width: Set line thickness (1-5)
Show Hourly Open: Toggle the horizontal line at the hour's opening price
Open Line Color: Customize color
Open Line Width: Set thickness (1-5)
Open Line Style: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
Show Range Lines: Toggle the expected high/low projection lines
Range Statistic: Choose "Mean" (12-year average) or "Median" (12-year middle value)
Range High Color: Customize upper range line color and transparency
Range Low Color: Customize lower range line color and transparency
Range Line Width: Set thickness (1-5)
Range Line Style: Choose Solid, Dashed, or Dotted
Show Line Labels: Toggle price labels at the end of all horizontal lines
Label Text Size: Choose Tiny, Small, or Normal
How It Works:
FVG Detection Logic:
The indicator scans price action on the selected lower timeframe (default: 1-minute) looking for Fair Value Gaps using a 3-candle pattern:
Bullish FVG: Formed when candle 's high is below candle 's low, creating an upward gap
Bearish FVG: Formed when candle 's low is above candle 's high, creating a downward gap
The detection is refined using volume imbalance logic by checking for body gaps (outside prints) on both sides of the middle candle. This narrows the FVG zone to areas where bodies don't touch, indicating stronger imbalances.
Only the first FVG that forms during each hour is displayed. If a bullish FVG forms first, it takes priority. The FVG box is drawn from the formation time through to the end of the hour.
Statistical Analysis:
All probability statistics are hardcoded from 12 years (2,400+ samples per hour) of NASDAQ futures analysis:
First 15-Minute Direction: At 15 minutes into each hour, the indicator determines if price closed above, below, or equal to the hour's opening price
Continuation Probability: Historical analysis shows the likelihood that the hour closes in the same direction as the first 15 minutes
Example: If 9AM's first 15 minutes are bullish, there's a 60.1% chance the entire 9AM hour closes bullish (lowest continuation hour)
4PM shows the highest continuation at 86.1% for bullish first 15 minutes
FVG Effectiveness: Tracks how often the first FVG's direction correctly predicts the hourly close direction
BISI (Bullish Imbalance/Sell-side Inefficiency) → Bullish close probability
SIBI (Bearish Imbalance/Buy-side Inefficiency) → Bearish close probability
Range Expectations: Mean and median values represent typical price movement percentage for each hour
9AM and 10AM show the largest ranges (~0.6%)
5PM shows minimal range (~0.06%) due to low liquidity
Hourly Reference Lines:
When each new hour begins:
Vertical delimiter marks the hour's start
Hourly open line plots at the first bar's opening price
Range projection lines calculate expected high/low:
Upper Range = Hourly Open + (Range% / 100 × Hourly Open)
Lower Range = Hourly Open - (Range% / 100 × Hourly Open)
Lines extend exactly to the hour's end time
Labels appear at line endpoints showing exact prices
Real-Time Updates:
FVG Status: Updates immediately when the first FVG forms
First 15min Direction: Locked in at the 15-minute mark
Countdown Timer: Uses timenow to update every second
Table Statistics: Refresh on every bar close
Timezone Handling:
All times are in America/New_York (Eastern Time)
Automatically filters weekend periods (Saturday and Sunday before 6PM)
Hour detection accounts for daylight saving time changes
Use Cases:
Intraday Trading Strategy Development:
FVG Entry Signals: Use the first hourly FVG as a directional bias
Bullish FVG + High continuation % = Strong long setup
Bearish FVG + High continuation % = Strong short setup
First 15-Minute Breakout: Combine first 15-min direction with continuation probabilities
Wait for first 15 minutes to complete
If continuation % is above 70%, trade in that direction
Example: 4PM bullish first 15 min = 86.1% chance hour closes bullish
Range Targeting: Use expected high/low lines as profit targets or reversal zones
Price approaching mean high = potential resistance
Price approaching mean low = potential support
Compare mean vs median for different risk tolerance (median is more conservative)
Hour Selection: Focus trading on hours with:
High FVG effectiveness (11AM: 81.5% BISI→Bull)
High continuation rates (4PM: 86.1% bull continuation)
Avoid low-continuation hours like 9AM (60.1%)
Time Management: Use the countdown timer to:
Enter early in the hour when FVG forms
Exit before hour-end if no follow-through
Avoid late-hour entries with <15 minutes remaining
Statistical Edge Identification:
Compare current hour's FVG against historical effectiveness
Identify when first 15-min direction contradicts FVG direction (conflict = caution)
Use hourly bias to confirm or contradict FVG signals
Monitor if price stays within expected range or breaks out (outlier moves)
Risk Management:
Expected range lines provide logical stop-loss placement
FVG Effect % helps size positions (higher % = larger position)
Time Left countdown aids in time-based stop management
Avoid trading hours with neutral bias or low continuation rates
Statistical Foundation:
All embedded statistics are derived from:
12 years of NASDAQ futures (NQ) continuous contract data
5-minute timeframe FVG detection methodology
24 hours per day analysis (excluding weekends)
2,400+ samples per hour for robust statistical validity
America/New_York timezone for session alignment
Data includes:
Hourly range analysis (mean, median, standard deviation)
First 15-minute directional analysis
FVG formation frequency and effectiveness
Continuation probability matrices
Bullish/bearish bias percentages
Best Practices:
✅ Do:
Use exclusively on NASDAQ futures (NQ1! or MNQ1!)
Apply on 5-minute charts for optimal FVG detection matching statistical samples
Wait for first 15 minutes to complete before acting on continuation probabilities
Combine FVG signals with continuation % and FVG Effect % for confluence
Use expected range lines as initial profit targets
Monitor the countdown timer for time-based trade management
Focus on hours with high statistical edges (4PM, 11AM, 10AM)
❌ Don't:
Use on other markets (ES, RTY, YM, stocks, forex, crypto) - statistics will be invalid
Rely solely on FVG without confirming with continuation probabilities
Trade during low-liquidity hours (5PM shows only 0.06% average range)
Ignore the first 15-minute direction when it conflicts with FVG direction
Apply to timeframes significantly different from 5-minute for FVG detection
Use median range expectations aggressively (they're conservative)
Technical Implementation Notes:
Timezone: Fixed to America/New_York with automatic DST adjustment
Weekend Filtering: Automatically hides data Saturday and Sunday before 6PM ET
Performance: Maximum 500 boxes and 500 lines for optimal chart rendering
Update Frequency: Table updates on every bar close; timer updates every second using timenow
FVG Priority: Bullish FVGs take precedence when both form simultaneously
Lower Timeframe Detection: Uses request.security_lower_tf for accurate sub-chart-timeframe FVG detection
Precision: All price labels use format.mintick for appropriate decimal precision
Big thanks to @Trades-Dont-Lie for the FPFVG code in his excellent indicator that I've used here
Buscar en scripts para "bear"
MACD + Divergence Indicator [Dynamic Filter]Title: MACD + Divergence
Description: This is an enhanced momentum analysis suite based on the classic Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD). It addresses the common weakness of the standard MACD—false signals during low-volatility consolidation—by integrating a Dynamic Volatility Filter and a Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Dashboard.
The Problem It Solves: Standard MACD indicators often generate "whipsaw" crossovers when the market is ranging (moving sideways). Traders often struggle to identify these consolidation zones until it is too late. This script solves this by calculating a dynamic "Consolidation Zone" based on Standard Deviation, visually warning traders when momentum is too weak to be reliable.
Key Features:
1. Dynamic Consolidation Filter (The Grey Zone)
The script calculates Upper and Lower bands around the MACD line using Standard Deviation (Volatility).
Grey Fill: When the MACD line is inside the grey bands, the market is in a "Squeeze" or low-volatility consolidation. Crossovers in this zone are often lower probability.
Breakout: When the MACD line exits the bands, it indicates a volatility expansion and a potentially stronger trend.
2. Automated Divergence Detection
Automatically scans for both Regular (Reversal) and Hidden (Continuation) divergences between Price and Momentum.
Bullish: Marked with Green lines/labels.
Bearish: Marked with Red lines/labels.
Customization: You can choose to calculate divergence based on the MACD Line or the Histogram via settings.
3. Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Dashboard
A customizable information table (optional) displays the MACD state across 4 different timeframes (e.g., 15m, 1H, 4H, Daily).
It checks for Trend Alignment (e.g., are all timeframes Bullish?) to help you trade in the direction of the higher timeframes.
4. Enhanced Visuals
4-Color Histogram: Visualizes momentum growing (bright) vs. momentum fading (pale) for both bullish and bearish phases.
Line Highlights: The MACD and Signal lines are clearly distinct, with configurable smoothing options (EMA/SMA).
Settings Guide:
Consolidation Filter: Increase the Dynamic Filter Multiplier (Default: 0.5) to widen the grey zone if you want to filter out more noise.
Oscillator Source: Switch between "MACD Line" or "Histogram" for divergence detection depending on your strategy.
Table: You can toggle the dashboard on/off or change its position to fit your chart layout.
Credits: Base MACD logic derived from standard technical analysis concepts. Dynamic filtering logic adapted from volatility band theories.
Quasimodo (QML) Pattern [Kodexius]Quasimodo (QML) Pattern is a market structure indicator that automatically detects Bullish and Bearish Quasimodo formations using confirmed swing pivots, then visualizes the full structure directly on the chart. The script focuses on the classic liquidity-grab narrative of the QML: a sweep beyond a prior swing (the Head) followed by a decisive market structure break (MSB), leaving behind a clearly defined reaction zone between the Left Shoulder and the Head.
Detection is built on pivot highs and lows, so patterns are evaluated only after swing points are validated. Once a valid 4 pivot sequence is identified, the indicator draws the pattern legs, highlights the internal triangle area to emphasize the grab, marks the MSB leg, and projects a QML zone that can be used as a potential area of interest for retests.
This tool is designed for traders who work with structure, liquidity concepts, and reversal/continuation triggers, and who want a clean, repeatable QML visualization without manually marking swings.
🔹 Features
🔸 Confirmed Pivot Based Structure Mapping
The script uses classic built-in pivot logic to detect swing highs and swing lows.
🔸 Automatic Bullish and Bearish QML Detection
The indicator evaluates the most recent 4 pivots and checks for a valid alternating sequence (High-Low-High-Low or Low-High-Low-High). When the sequence matches QML requirements, the script classifies the setup as bullish or bearish:
Bullish logic (structure reversal up):
- Left Shoulder is a pivot Low
- Head is a lower Low than the Left Shoulder (liquidity sweep)
- MSB pivot exceeds the Reaction pivot
Bearish logic (structure reversal down):
- Left Shoulder is a pivot High
- Head is a higher High than the Left Shoulder (liquidity sweep)
- MSB pivot breaks below the Reaction pivot
🔸 Full Pattern Visualization (Legs + Highlighted Core)
When a pattern triggers, the script draws:
Three main legs: Left Shoulder to Reaction, Reaction to Head, Head to MSB
A shaded triangular highlight over the internal structure to make the liquidity-grab shape easy to spot at a glance
🔸 QML Zone Projection
A QML Zone box is drawn using the price range defined between the Left Shoulder and the Head, then extended to the right to remain visible as price develops. This zone is intended to act as a practical reference area for potential retests and reaction planning after MSB confirmation.
🔸 MSB Emphasis
A dotted MSB line is drawn between the Reaction point and the MSB point to visually emphasize the confirmation leg that completes the pattern logic.
🔸 Clean Point Tagging and Directional Labeling
Key points are labeled directly on the chart:
- “LS” at the Left Shoulder
- “Head” at the sweep pivot
- “MSB” at the break pivot
A directional label (“Bullish QML” or “Bearish QML”) is also printed to quickly identify the detected bias.
🔸 Configurable Visual Style
All main visual components are user configurable:
- Bullish and bearish colors
- Line width
- Label size
🔸 Efficient Update Logic
Pattern checks are only performed when a new pivot is confirmed, avoiding unnecessary repeated calculations on every bar. The most recent pattern’s projected elements (zone and label positioning) are updated as new bars print to keep the latest setup readable.
🔹 Calculations
This section summarizes the core logic used for detection and plotting.
1. Pivot Detection (Swing Highs and Lows)
The script relies on confirmed pivots using the user inputs:
Left Bars: how many bars must exist to the left of the pivot
Right Bars: how many bars must exist to the right to confirm it
float ph = ta.pivothigh(leftLen, rightLen)
float pl = ta.pivotlow(leftLen, rightLen)
When a pivot is confirmed, its true bar index is the pivot bar, not the current bar, so the script stores:
bar_index
2. Pivot Storage and History Window
Each pivot is stored as a structured object containing:
- price
- index
- isHigh (true for pivot high, false for pivot low)
A rolling history is maintained (up to 50 pivots) to keep processing stable and memory usage controlled.
3. Sequence Validation (Alternation Check)
The pattern evaluation always uses the latest 4 pivots:
p0: Left Shoulder candidate
p1: Reaction candidate
p2: Head candidate
p3: MSB candidate
Before checking bullish/bearish rules, the script enforces alternating pivot types:
bool correctSequence =
(p0.isHigh != p1.isHigh) and
(p1.isHigh != p2.isHigh) and
(p2.isHigh != p3.isHigh)
This prevents invalid structures like consecutive highs or consecutive lows from being interpreted as QML.
4. Bullish QML Conditions
A bullish QML is evaluated when the Left Shoulder is a Low:
Head must be lower than Left Shoulder (sweep)
MSB must be higher than Reaction (break)
if not p0.isHigh
if p2.price < p0.price and p3.price > p1.price
// Bullish QML confirmed
Interpretation:
p2 < p0 represents the liquidity grab below the prior swing low
p3 > p1 represents the market structure break above the reaction high
5. Bearish QML Conditions
A bearish QML is evaluated when the Left Shoulder is a High:
Head must be higher than Left Shoulder (sweep)
MSB must be lower than Reaction (break)
if p0.isHigh
if p2.price > p0.price and p3.price < p1.price
// Bearish QML confirmed
Interpretation:
p2 > p0 represents the liquidity grab above the prior swing high
p3 < p1 represents the market structure break below the reaction low
6. Drawing Logic (Structure, Highlight, Zone, Labels)
When confirmed, the script draws:
Three connecting legs (LS to Reaction, Reaction to Head, Head to MSB)
A shaded triangle using a transparent “ghost” line to enable filling
A dotted MSB emphasis line between Reaction and MSB
A QML Zone box spanning the LS to Head price range and projecting to the right
Point labels: LS, Head, MSB
A direction label: “Bullish QML” or “Bearish QML”
7. Latest Pattern Extension
To keep the newest setup readable, the script updates the most recently detected pattern by extending its projected elements as new bars print:
QML zone right edge is pushed forward
The main label x position is pushed forward
This keeps the last identified QML zone visible as price evolves, without having to redraw historical patterns on every bar.
EURUSD | Yield Curve Flip Strategy (2s10s State Flips)Strategy Core (Concept)
The strategy trades EURUSD exclusively when the US yield curve regime (2Y/10Y) flips into a new, clearly bullish or bearish regime. The core assumption is that re-pricing in the US yield curve (rather than individual data points) is a robust driver of USD strength or weakness and can act as a structural trigger for trend changes.
⸻
Data Basis
• Uses US 2Y Yield (TVC:US02Y) and US 10Y Yield (TVC:US10Y).
• The 2s10s curve is calculated as:
curveUS = US10Y – US2Y
• Regime assessment is based on the N-day change (default: 5 days), calculated on true rates bars (not intraday noise).
⸻
Regime Detection (Correct Bond Logic)
First, the strategy checks whether the curve has significantly steepened or flattened over the lookback period:
• Steepener if Δ(2s10s) > thrCurve (default: +0.10 percentage points = 10 bp)
• Flattener if Δ(2s10s) < −thrCurve
Next, a leg confirmation determines the specific type of steepener/flattener (default thrLeg = 5 bp):
Bull Steepener
• Curve steepens because yields fall, with the 2Y falling more (risk-off / rate-cut pricing)
Bear Steepener
• Curve steepens because yields rise, with the 10Y rising more (reflation / term-premium move)
Bull Flattener
• Curve flattens because yields fall, with the 10Y falling more (growth shock / long-end rally)
Bear Flattener
• Curve flattens because yields rise, with the 2Y rising more (hawkish repricing / front-end up)
Important: By default, a Bear Steepener is not treated as a bearish signal, unless allowBearSteepForShort is enabled.
⸻
State Machine (Memory + Flip Triggers)
The strategy maintains a persistent state variable curveState:
• +1 = bullish
• −1 = bearish
• 0 = neutral
The state is updated only on a new rates bar (daily rates when tfRates = "D"), avoiding intraday noise.
A trade is generated only on a true regime flip:
• flipToBull: new state turns bullish and the previous state was bearish (or neutral, if allowed)
• flipToBear: new state turns bearish and the previous state was bullish (or neutral, if allowed)
The option enterFromNeutral controls whether the first clear regime emerging from neutral is traded.
The option onlyOnNewRatesBar ensures signals occur only when a new rates bar is printed, providing clean timing.
⸻
Trading Rules (Entry / Exit)
There are no stops, targets, or trailing mechanisms. The strategy is a pure regime-switching / reversal system:
• On flipToBull
• Close short (“S”)
• Open long (“L”)
• On flipToBear
• Close long (“L”)
• Open short (“S”)
Positions are therefore held until the next regime flip.
⸻
Parameter Interpretation
• N: Smoothing / inertia. Smaller = faster but noisier; larger = more stable but later.
• thrCurve: Minimum curve move required to define a regime.
• thrLeg: Minimum move of the confirming leg (2Y or 10Y) to reduce misclassification.
• allowBearSteepForShort: Makes the system more aggressive (more bearish signals), but represents a different macro case.
• enterFromNeutral: Increases trade frequency by trading the first regime impulse.
⸻
What You See on the Chart
• Background shading:
• Green for bullish state
• Red for bearish state
• The curve and Δ-curve are plotted but hidden (display=none), mainly for debugging and analysis.
Adaptive Z-Score Oscillator [QuantAlgo]🟢 Overview
The Adaptive Z-Score Oscillator transforms price action into statistical significance measurements by calculating how many standard deviations the current price deviates from its moving average baseline, then dynamically adjusting threshold levels based on historical distribution patterns. Unlike traditional oscillators that rely on fixed overbought/oversold levels, this indicator employs percentile-based adaptive thresholds that automatically calibrate to changing market volatility regimes and statistical characteristics. By offering both adaptive and fixed threshold modes alongside multiple moving average types and customizable smoothing, the indicator provides traders and investors with a robust framework for identifying extreme price deviations, mean reversion opportunities, and underlying trend conditions through the visualization of price behavior within a statistical distribution context.
🟢 How It Works
The indicator begins by establishing a dynamic baseline using a user-selected moving average type applied to closing prices over the specified length period, then calculates the standard deviation to measure price dispersion:
basis = ma(close, length, maType)
stdev = ta.stdev(close, length)
The core Z-Score calculation quantifies how many standard deviations the current price sits above or below the moving average basis, creating a normalized oscillator that facilitates cross-asset and cross-timeframe comparisons:
zScore = stdev != 0 ? (close - basis) / stdev : 0
smoothedZ = ma(zScore, smooth, maType)
The adaptive threshold mechanism employs percentile calculations over a historical lookback period to determine statistically significant extreme zones. Rather than using fixed levels like ±2.0, the indicator identifies where a specified percentage of historical Z-Score readings have fallen, automatically adjusting to market regime changes:
upperThreshold = adaptive ? ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(smoothedZ, percentilePeriod, upperPercentile) : fixedUpper
lowerThreshold = adaptive ? ta.percentile_linear_interpolation(smoothedZ, percentilePeriod, lowerPercentile) : fixedLower
The visualization architecture creates a four-tier coloring system that distinguishes between extreme conditions (beyond the adaptive thresholds) and moderate conditions (between the midpoint and threshold levels), providing visual gradation of statistical significance through opacity variations and immediate recognition of distribution extremes.
🟢 How to Use This Indicator
▶ Overbought and Oversold Identification:
The indicator identifies potential overbought conditions when the smoothed Z-Score crosses above the upper threshold, indicating that price has deviated to a statistically extreme level above its mean. Conversely, oversold conditions emerge when the Z-Score crosses below the lower threshold, signaling statistically significant downward deviation. In adaptive mode (default), these thresholds automatically adjust to the asset's historical behavior, i.e., during high volatility periods, the thresholds expand to accommodate wider price swings, while during low volatility regimes, they contract to capture smaller deviations as significant. This dynamic calibration reduce false signals that plague fixed-level oscillators when market character shifts between volatile and ranging conditions.
▶ Mean Reversion Trading Applications:
The Z-Score framework excels at identifying mean reversion opportunities by highlighting when price has stretched too far from its statistical equilibrium. When the oscillator reaches extreme bearish levels (below the lower threshold with deep red coloring), it suggests price has become statistically oversold and may snap back toward the mean, presenting potential long entry opportunities for mean reversion traders. Symmetrically, extreme bullish readings (above the upper threshold with bright green coloring) indicate potential short opportunities or long exit points as price becomes statistically overbought. The moderate zones (lighter colors between midpoint and threshold) serve as early warning areas where traders can prepare for potential reversals, while exits from extreme zones (crossing back inside the thresholds) often provide confirmation that mean reversion is underway.
▶ Trend and Distribution Analysis:
Beyond discrete overbought/oversold signals, the histogram's color pattern and shape reveal the underlying trend structure and distribution characteristics. Sustained periods where the Z-Score oscillates primarily in positive territory (green bars) indicate a bullish trend where price consistently trades above its moving average baseline, even if not reaching extreme levels. Conversely, predominant negative readings (red bars) suggest bearish trend conditions. The distribution shape itself provides insight into market behavior, e.g., a narrow, centered distribution clustering near zero indicates tight ranging conditions with price respecting the mean, while a wide distribution with frequent extreme readings reveals volatile trending or choppy conditions. Asymmetric distributions skewed heavily toward one side demonstrate persistent directional bias, whereas balanced distributions suggest equilibrium between bulls and bears.
▶ Built-in Alerts:
Seven alert conditions enable automated monitoring of statistical extremes and trend transitions. Enter Overbought and Enter Oversold alerts trigger when the Z-Score crosses into extreme zones, providing early warnings of potential reversal setups. Exit Overbought and Exit Oversold alerts signal when price begins reverting from extremes, offering confirmation that mean reversion has initiated. Zero Cross Up and Zero Cross Down alerts identify transitions through the neutral line, indicating shifts between above-mean and below-mean price action that can signal trend changes. The Extreme Zone Entry alert fires on any extreme threshold penetration regardless of direction, allowing unified monitoring of both overbought and oversold opportunities.
▶ Color Customization:
Six visual themes (Classic, Aqua, Cosmic, Ember, Neon, plus Custom) accommodate different chart backgrounds and aesthetic preferences, ensuring optimal contrast and readability across trading platforms. The bar transparency control (0-90%) allows fine-tuning of visual prominence, with minimal transparency creating bold, attention-grabbing bars for primary analysis, while higher transparency values produce subtle background context when using the oscillator alongside other indicators. The extreme and moderate zone coloring system uses automatic opacity variation to create instant visual hierarchy, with darkest colors highlight the most statistically significant deviations demanding immediate attention, while lighter shades mark developing conditions that warrant monitoring but may not yet justify action. Optional candle coloring extends the Z-Score color scheme directly to the price candles on the main chart, enabling traders to instantly recognize statistical extremes and trend conditions without needing to reference the oscillator panel, creating a unified visual experience where both price action and statistical analysis share the same color language.
ORB Fusion🎯 CORE INNOVATION: INSTITUTIONAL ORB FRAMEWORK WITH FAILED BREAKOUT INTELLIGENCE
ORB Fusion represents a complete institutional-grade Opening Range Breakout system combining classic Market Profile concepts (Initial Balance, day type classification) with modern algorithmic breakout detection, failed breakout reversal logic, and comprehensive statistical tracking. Rather than simply drawing lines at opening range extremes, this system implements the full trading methodology used by professional floor traders and market makers—including the critical concept that failed breakouts are often higher-probability setups than successful breakouts .
The Opening Range Hypothesis:
The first 30-60 minutes of trading establishes the day's value area —the price range where the majority of participants agree on fair value. This range is formed during peak information flow (overnight news digestion, gap reactions, early institutional positioning). Breakouts from this range signal directional conviction; failures to hold breakouts signal trapped participants and create exploitable reversals.
Why Opening Range Matters:
1. Information Aggregation : Opening range reflects overnight news, pre-market sentiment, and early institutional orders. It's the market's initial "consensus" on value.
2. Liquidity Concentration : Stop losses cluster just outside opening range. Breakouts trigger these stops, creating momentum. Failed breakouts trap traders, forcing reversals.
3. Statistical Persistence : Markets exhibit range expansion tendency —when price accepts above/below opening range with volume, it often extends 1.0-2.0x the opening range size before mean reversion.
4. Institutional Behavior : Large players (market makers, institutions) use opening range as reference for the day's trading plan. They fade extremes in rotation days and follow breakouts in trend days.
Historical Context:
Opening Range Breakout methodology originated in commodity futures pits (1970s-80s) where floor traders noticed consistent patterns: the first 30-60 minutes established a "fair value zone," and directional moves occurred when this zone was violated with conviction. J. Peter Steidlmayer formalized this observation in Market Profile theory, introducing the "Initial Balance" concept—the first hour (two 30-minute periods) defining market structure.
📊 OPENING RANGE CONSTRUCTION
Four ORB Timeframe Options:
1. 5-Minute ORB (0930-0935 ET):
Captures immediate market direction during "opening drive"—the explosive first few minutes when overnight orders hit the tape.
Use Case:
• Scalping strategies
• High-frequency breakout trading
• Extremely liquid instruments (ES, NQ, SPY)
Characteristics:
• Very tight range (often 0.2-0.5% of price)
• Early breakouts common (7 of 10 days break within first hour)
• Higher false breakout rate (50-60%)
• Requires sub-minute chart monitoring
Psychology: Captures panic buyers/sellers reacting to overnight news. Range is small because sample size is minimal—only 5 minutes of price discovery. Early breakouts often fail because they're driven by retail FOMO rather than institutional conviction.
2. 15-Minute ORB (0930-0945 ET):
Balances responsiveness with statistical validity. Captures opening drive plus initial reaction to that drive.
Use Case:
• Day trading strategies
• Balanced scalping/swing hybrid
• Most liquid instruments
Characteristics:
• Moderate range (0.4-0.8% of price typically)
• Breakout rate ~60% of days
• False breakout rate ~40-45%
• Good balance of opportunity and reliability
Psychology: Includes opening panic AND the first retest/consolidation. Sophisticated traders (institutions, algos) start expressing directional bias. This is the "Goldilocks" timeframe—not too reactive, not too slow.
3. 30-Minute ORB (0930-1000 ET):
Classic ORB timeframe. Default for most professional implementations.
Use Case:
• Standard intraday trading
• Position sizing for full-day trades
• All liquid instruments (equities, indices, futures)
Characteristics:
• Substantial range (0.6-1.2% of price)
• Breakout rate ~55% of days
• False breakout rate ~35-40%
• Statistical sweet spot for extensions
Psychology: Full opening auction + first institutional repositioning complete. By 10:00 AM ET, headlines are digested, early stops are hit, and "real" directional players reveal themselves. This is when institutional programs typically finish their opening positioning.
Statistical Advantage: 30-minute ORB shows highest correlation with daily range. When price breaks and holds outside 30m ORB, probability of reaching 1.0x extension (doubling the opening range) exceeds 60% historically.
4. 60-Minute ORB (0930-1030 ET) - Initial Balance:
Steidlmayer's "Initial Balance"—the foundation of Market Profile theory.
Use Case:
• Swing trading entries
• Day type classification
• Low-frequency institutional setups
Characteristics:
• Wide range (0.8-1.5% of price)
• Breakout rate ~45% of days
• False breakout rate ~25-30% (lowest)
• Best for trend day identification
Psychology: Full first hour captures A-period (0930-1000) and B-period (1000-1030). By 10:30 AM ET, all early positioning is complete. Market has "voted" on value. Subsequent price action confirms (trend day) or rejects (rotation day) this value assessment.
Initial Balance Theory:
IB represents the market's accepted value area . When price extends significantly beyond IB (>1.5x IB range), it signals a Trend Day —strong directional conviction. When price remains within 1.0x IB, it signals a Rotation Day —mean reversion environment. This classification completely changes trading strategy.
🔬 LTF PRECISION TECHNOLOGY
The Chart Timeframe Problem:
Traditional ORB indicators calculate range using the chart's current timeframe. This creates critical inaccuracies:
Example:
• You're on a 5-minute chart
• ORB period is 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET)
• Indicator sees only 6 bars (30min ÷ 5min/bar = 6 bars)
• If any 5-minute bar has extreme wick, entire ORB is distorted
The Problem Amplifies:
• On 15-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 2 bars sampled
• On 30-minute chart with 30-minute ORB: Only 1 bar sampled
• Opening spike or single large wick defines entire range (invalid)
Solution: Lower Timeframe (LTF) Precision:
ORB Fusion uses `request.security_lower_tf()` to sample 1-minute bars regardless of chart timeframe:
```
For 30-minute ORB on 15-minute chart:
- Traditional method: Uses 2 bars (15min × 2 = 30min)
- LTF Precision: Requests thirty 1-minute bars, calculates true high/low
```
Why This Matters:
Scenario: ES futures, 15-minute chart, 30-minute ORB
• Traditional ORB: High = 5850.00, Low = 5842.00 (range = 8 points)
• LTF Precision ORB: High = 5848.50, Low = 5843.25 (range = 5.25 points)
Difference: 2.75 points distortion from single 15-minute wick hitting 5850.00 at 9:31 AM then immediately reversing. LTF precision filters this out by seeing it was a fleeting wick, not a sustained high.
Impact on Extensions:
With inflated range (8 points vs 5.25 points):
• 1.5x extension projects +12 points instead of +7.875 points
• Difference: 4.125 points (nearly $200 per ES contract)
• Breakout signals trigger late; extension targets unreachable
Implementation:
```pinescript
getLtfHighLow() =>
float ha = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", high)
float la = request.security_lower_tf(syminfo.tickerid, "1", low)
```
Function returns arrays of 1-minute high/low values, then finds true maximum and minimum across all samples.
When LTF Precision Activates:
Only when chart timeframe exceeds ORB session window:
• 5-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF used (chart TF > session bars needed)
• 1-minute chart + 30-minute ORB: LTF not needed (direct sampling sufficient)
Recommendation: Always enable LTF Precision unless you're on 1-minute charts. The computational overhead is negligible, and accuracy improvement is substantial.
⚖️ INITIAL BALANCE (IB) FRAMEWORK
Steidlmayer's Market Profile Innovation:
J. Peter Steidlmayer developed Market Profile in the 1980s for the Chicago Board of Trade. His key insight: market structure is best understood through time-at-price (value area) rather than just price-over-time (traditional charts).
Initial Balance Definition:
IB is the price range established during the first hour of trading, subdivided into:
• A-Period : First 30 minutes (0930-1000 ET for US equities)
• B-Period : Second 30 minutes (1000-1030 ET)
A-Period vs B-Period Comparison:
The relationship between A and B periods forecasts the day:
B-Period Expansion (Bullish):
• B-period high > A-period high
• B-period low ≥ A-period low
• Interpretation: Buyers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bullish continuation likely
• Strategy: Buy pullbacks to A-period high (now support)
B-Period Expansion (Bearish):
• B-period low < A-period low
• B-period high ≤ A-period high
• Interpretation: Sellers stepping in after opening assessed
• Implication: Bearish continuation likely
• Strategy: Sell rallies to A-period low (now resistance)
B-Period Contraction:
• B-period stays within A-period range
• Interpretation: Market indecisive, digesting A-period information
• Implication: Rotation day likely, stay range-bound
• Strategy: Fade extremes, sell high/buy low within IB
IB Extensions:
Professional traders use IB as a ruler to project price targets:
Extension Levels:
• 0.5x IB : Initial probe outside value (minor target)
• 1.0x IB : Full extension (major target for normal days)
• 1.5x IB : Trend day threshold (classifies as trending)
• 2.0x IB : Strong trend day (rare, ~10-15% of days)
Calculation:
```
IB Range = IB High - IB Low
Bull Extension 1.0x = IB High + (IB Range × 1.0)
Bear Extension 1.0x = IB Low - (IB Range × 1.0)
```
Example:
ES futures:
• IB High: 5850.00
• IB Low: 5842.00
• IB Range: 8.00 points
Extensions:
• 1.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 8 = 5858.00
• 1.5x Bull Target: 5850 + 12 = 5862.00
• 2.0x Bull Target: 5850 + 16 = 5866.00
If price reaches 5862.00 (1.5x), day is classified as Trend Day —strategy shifts from mean reversion to trend following.
📈 DAY TYPE CLASSIFICATION SYSTEM
Four Day Types (Market Profile Framework):
1. TREND DAY:
Definition: Price extends ≥1.5x IB range in one direction and stays there.
Characteristics:
• Opens and never returns to IB
• Persistent directional movement
• Volume increases as day progresses (conviction building)
• News-driven or strong institutional flow
Frequency: ~20-25% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Follow the trend, trail stops, let winners run
• DON'T: Fade extremes, take early profits
• Key: Add to position on pullbacks to previous extension level
• Risk: Getting chopped in false trend (see Failed Breakout section)
Example: FOMC decision, payroll report, earnings surprise—anything creating one-sided conviction.
2. NORMAL DAY:
Definition: Price extends 0.5-1.5x IB, tests both sides, returns to IB.
Characteristics:
• Two-sided trading
• Extensions occur but don't persist
• Volume balanced throughout day
• Most common day type
Frequency: ~45-50% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Take profits at extension levels, expect reversals
• DON'T: Hold for massive moves
• Key: Treat each extension as a profit-taking opportunity
• Risk: Holding too long when momentum shifts
Example: Typical day with no major catalysts—market balancing supply and demand.
3. ROTATION DAY:
Definition: Price stays within IB all day, rotating between high and low.
Characteristics:
• Never accepts outside IB
• Multiple tests of IB high/low
• Decreasing volume (no conviction)
• Classic range-bound action
Frequency: ~25-30% of trading days
Trading Strategy:
• DO: Fade extremes (sell IB high, buy IB low)
• DON'T: Chase breakouts
• Key: Enter at extremes with tight stops just outside IB
• Risk: Breakout finally occurs after multiple failures
Example: [/b> Pre-holiday trading, summer doldrums, consolidation after big move.
4. DEVELOPING:
Definition: Day type not yet determined (early in session).
Usage: Classification before 12:00 PM ET when IB extension pattern unclear.
ORB Fusion's Classification Algorithm:
```pinescript
if close > ibHigh:
ibExtension = (close - ibHigh) / ibRange
direction = "BULLISH"
else if close < ibLow:
ibExtension = (ibLow - close) / ibRange
direction = "BEARISH"
if ibExtension >= 1.5:
dayType = "TREND DAY"
else if ibExtension >= 0.5:
dayType = "NORMAL DAY"
else if close within IB:
dayType = "ROTATION DAY"
```
Why Classification Matters:
Same setup (bullish ORB breakout) has opposite implications:
• Trend Day : Hold for 2.0x extension, trail stops aggressively
• Normal Day : Take profits at 1.0x extension, watch for reversal
• Rotation Day : Fade the breakout immediately (likely false)
Knowing day type prevents catastrophic errors like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
🚀 BREAKOUT DETECTION & CONFIRMATION
Three Confirmation Methods:
1. Close Beyond Level (Recommended):
Logic: Candle must close above ORB high (bull) or below ORB low (bear).
Why:
• Filters out wicks (temporary liquidity grabs)
• Ensures sustained acceptance above/below range
• Reduces false breakout rate by ~20-30%
Example:
• ORB High: 5850.00
• Bar high touches 5850.50 (wick above)
• Bar closes at 5848.00 (inside range)
• Result: NO breakout signal
vs.
• Bar high touches 5850.50
• Bar closes at 5851.00 (outside range)
• Result: BREAKOUT signal confirmed
Trade-off: Slightly delayed entry (wait for close) but much higher reliability.
2. Wick Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Any touch of ORB high/low triggers breakout.
Why:
• Earliest possible entry
• Captures aggressive momentum moves
Risk:
• High false breakout rate (60-70%)
• Stop runs trigger signals
• Requires very tight stops (difficult to manage)
Use Case: Scalping with 1-2 point profit targets where any penetration = trade.
3. Body Beyond Level:
Logic: [/b> Candle body (close vs open) must be entirely outside range.
Why:
• Strictest confirmation
• Ensures directional conviction (not just momentum)
• Lowest false breakout rate
Example: Trade-off: [/b> Very conservative—misses some valid breakouts but rarely triggers on false ones.
Volume Confirmation Layer:
All confirmation methods can require volume validation:
Volume Multiplier Logic: Rationale: [/b> True breakouts are driven by institutional activity (large size). Volume spike confirms real conviction vs. stop-run manipulation.
Statistical Impact: [/b>
• Breakouts with volume confirmation: ~65% success rate
• Breakouts without volume: ~45% success rate
• Difference: 20 percentage points edge
Implementation Note: [/b>
Volume confirmation adds complexity—you'll miss breakouts that work but lack volume. However, when targeting 1.5x+ extensions (ambitious goals), volume confirmation becomes critical because those moves require sustained institutional participation.
Recommended Settings by Strategy: [/b>
Scalping (1-2 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: OFF
• Rationale: Quick in/out doesn't need perfection
Intraday Swing (5-10 point targets): [/b>
• Method: Close
• Volume: ON (1.5x multiplier)
• Rationale: Balance reliability and opportunity
Position Trading (full-day holds): [/b>
• Method: Body
• Volume: ON (2.0x multiplier)
• Rationale: Must be certain—large stops require high win rate
🔥 FAILED BREAKOUT SYSTEM
The Core Insight: [/b>
Failed breakouts are often more profitable [/b> than successful breakouts because they create trapped traders with predictable behavior.
Failed Breakout Definition: [/b>
A breakout that:
1. Initially penetrates ORB level with confirmation
2. Attracts participants (volume spike, momentum)
3. Fails to extend (stalls or immediately reverses)
4. Returns inside ORB range within N bars
Psychology of Failure: [/b>
When breakout fails:
• Breakout buyers are trapped [/b>: Bought at ORB high, now underwater
• Early longs reduce: Take profit, fearful of reversal
• Shorts smell blood: See failed breakout as reversal signal
• Result: Cascade of selling as trapped bulls exit + new shorts enter
Mirror image for failed bearish breakouts (trapped shorts cover + new longs enter).
Failure Detection Parameters: [/b>
1. Failure Confirmation Bars (default: 3): [/b>
How many bars after breakout to confirm failure?
Logic: Settings: [/b>
• 2 bars: Aggressive failure detection (more signals, more false failures)
• 3 bars Balanced (default)
• 5-10 bars: Conservative (wait for clear reversal)
Why This Matters:
Too few bars: You call "failed breakout" when price is just consolidating before next leg.
Too many bars: You miss the reversal entry (price already back in range).
2. Failure Buffer (default: 0.1 ATR): [/b>
How far inside ORB must price return to confirm failure?
Formula: Why Buffer Matters: clear rejection [/b> (not just hovering at level).
Settings: [/b>
• 0.0 ATR: No buffer, immediate failure signal
• 0.1 ATR: Small buffer (default) - filters noise
• [b>0.2-0.3 ATR: Large buffer - only dramatic failures count
Example: Reversal Entry System: [/b>
When failure confirmed, system generates complete reversal trade:
For Failed Bull Breakout (Short Reversal): [/b>
Entry: [/b> Current close when failure confirmed
Stop Loss: [/b> Extreme high since breakout + 0.10 ATR padding
Target 1: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 0.5)
Target 2: Target 3: [/b> ORB High - (ORB Range × 1.5)
Example:
• ORB High: 5850, ORB Low: 5842, Range: 8 points
• Breakout to 5853, fails, reverses to 5848 (entry)
• Stop: 5853 + 1 = 5854 (6 point risk)
• T1: 5850 - 4 = 5846 (-2 points, 1:3 R:R)
• T2: 5850 - 8 = 5842 (-6 points, 1:1 R:R)
• T3: 5850 - 12 = 5838 (-10 points, 1.67:1 R:R)
[b>Why These Targets? [/b>
• T1 (0.5x ORB below high): Trapped bulls start panic
• T2 (1.0x ORB = ORB Mid): Major retracement, momentum fully reversed
• T3 (1.5x ORB): Reversal extended, now targeting opposite side
Historical Performance: [/b>
Failed breakout reversals in ORB Fusion's tracking system show:
• Win Rate: 65-75% (significantly higher than initial breakouts)
• Average Winner: 1.2x ORB range
• Average Loser: 0.5x ORB range (protected by stop at extreme)
• Expectancy: Strongly positive even with <70% win rate
Why Failed Breakouts Outperform: [/b>
1. Information Advantage: You now know what price did (failed to extend). Initial breakout trades are speculative; reversal trades are reactive to confirmed failure.
2. Trapped Participant Pressure: Every trapped bull becomes a seller. This creates sustained pressure.
3. Stop Loss Clarity: Extreme high is obvious stop (just beyond recent high). Breakout trades have ambiguous stops (ORB mid? Recent low? Too wide or too tight).
4. Mean Reversion Edge: Failed breakouts return to value (ORB mid). Initial breakouts try to escape value (harder to sustain).
Critical Insight: [/b>
"The best trade is often the one that trapped everyone else."
Failed breakouts create asymmetric opportunity because you're trading against [/b> trapped participants rather than with [/b> them. When you see a failed breakout signal, you're seeing real-time evidence that the market rejected directional conviction—that's exploitable.
📐 FIBONACCI EXTENSION SYSTEM
Six Extension Levels: [/b>
Extensions project how far price will travel after ORB breakout. Based on Fibonacci ratios + empirical market behavior.
1. 1.272x (27.2% Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.272)
Psychology: [/b> Initial probe beyond ORB. Early momentum + trapped shorts (on bull side) covering.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~75-80% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• First resistance/support after breakout
• Partial profit target (take 30-50% off)
• Watch for rejection here (could signal failure in progress)
Why 1.272? [/b> Related to harmonic patterns (1.272 is √1.618). Empirically, markets often stall at 25-30% extension before deciding whether to continue or fail.
2. 1.5x (50% Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.5)
Psychology: [/b> Breakout gaining conviction. Requires sustained buying/selling (not just momentum spike).
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~60-65% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Major partial profit (take 50-70% off)
• Move stops to breakeven
• Trail remaining position
Why 1.5x? [/b> Classic halfway point to 2.0x. Markets often consolidate here before final push. If day type is "Normal," this is likely the high/low for the day.
3. 1.618x (Golden Ratio Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 0.618)
Psychology: [/b> Strong directional day. Institutional conviction + retail FOMO.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~45-50% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Final partial profit (close 80-90%)
• Trail remainder with wide stop (allow breathing room)
Why 1.618? [/b> Fibonacci golden ratio. Appears consistently in market geometry. When price reaches 1.618x extension, move is "mature" and reversal risk increases.
4. 2.0x (100% Extension): [/b>
Formula: ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.0)
Psychology: [/b> Trend day confirmed. Opening range completely duplicated.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~30-35% after confirmed breakout
Trading: Why 2.0x? [/b> Psychological level—range doubled. Also corresponds to typical daily ATR in many instruments (opening range ~ 0.5 ATR, daily range ~ 1.0 ATR).
5. 2.618x (Super Extension):
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 1.618)
Psychology: [/b> Parabolic move. News-driven or squeeze.
Probability of Reach: [/b> ~10-15% after confirmed breakout
[b>Trading: Why 2.618? [/b> Fibonacci ratio (1.618²). Rare to reach—when it does, move is extreme. Often precedes multi-day consolidation or reversal.
6. 3.0x (Extreme Extension): [/b>
Formula: [/b> ORB High/Low + (ORB Range × 2.0)
Psychology: [/b> Market melt-up/crash. Only in extreme events.
[b>Probability of Reach: [/b> <5% after confirmed breakout
Trading: [/b>
• Close immediately if reached
• These are outlier events (black swans, flash crashes, squeeze-outs)
• Holding for more is greed—take windfall profit
Why 3.0x? [/b> Triple opening range. So rare it's statistical noise. When it happens, it's headline news.
Visual Example:
ES futures, ORB 5842-5850 (8 point range), Bullish breakout:
• ORB High : 5850.00 (entry zone)
• 1.272x : 5850 + 2.18 = 5852.18 (first resistance)
• 1.5x : 5850 + 4.00 = 5854.00 (major target)
• 1.618x : 5850 + 4.94 = 5854.94 (strong target)
• 2.0x : 5850 + 8.00 = 5858.00 (trend day)
• 2.618x : 5850 + 12.94 = 5862.94 (extreme)
• 3.0x : 5850 + 16.00 = 5866.00 (parabolic)
Profit-Taking Strategy:
Optimal scaling out at extensions:
• Breakout entry at 5850.50
• 30% off at 1.272x (5852.18) → +1.68 points
• 40% off at 1.5x (5854.00) → +3.50 points
• 20% off at 1.618x (5854.94) → +4.44 points
• 10% off at 2.0x (5858.00) → +7.50 points
[b>Average Exit: Conclusion: [/b> Scaling out at extensions produces 40% higher expectancy than holding for home runs.
📊 GAP ANALYSIS & FILL PSYCHOLOGY
[b>Gap Definition: [/b>
Price discontinuity between previous close and current open:
• Gap Up : Open > Previous Close + noise threshold (0.1 ATR)
• Gap Down : Open < Previous Close - noise threshold
Why Gaps Matter: [/b>
Gaps represent unfilled orders [/b>. When market gaps up, all limit buy orders between yesterday's close and today's open are never filled. Those buyers are "left behind." Psychology: they wait for price to return ("fill the gap") so they can enter. This creates magnetic pull [/b> toward gap level.
Gap Fill Statistics (Empirical): [/b>
• Gaps <0.5% [/b>: 85-90% fill within same day
• Gaps 0.5-1.0% [/b>: 70-75% fill within same day, 90%+ within week
• Gaps >1.0% [/b>: 50-60% fill within same day (major news often prevents fill)
Gap Fill Strategy: [/b>
Setup 1: Gap-and-Go
Gap opens, extends away from gap (doesn't fill).
• ORB confirms direction away from gap
• Trade WITH ORB breakout direction
• Expectation: Gap won't fill today (momentum too strong)
Setup 2: Gap-Fill Fade
Gap opens, but fails to extend. Price drifts back toward gap.
• ORB breakout TOWARD gap (not away)
• Trade toward gap fill level
• Target: Previous close (gap fill complete)
Setup 3: Gap-Fill Rejection
Gap fills (touches previous close) then rejects.
• ORB breakout AWAY from gap after fill
• Trade away from gap direction
• Thesis: Gap filled (orders executed), now resume original direction
[b>Example: Scenario A (Gap-and-Go):
• ORB breaks upward to $454 (away from gap)
• Trade: LONG breakout, expect continued rally
• Gap becomes support ($452)
Scenario B (Gap-Fill):
• ORB breaks downward through $452.50 (toward gap)
• Trade: SHORT toward gap fill at $450.00
• Target: $450.00 (gap filled), close position
Scenario C (Gap-Fill Rejection):
• Price drifts to $450.00 (gap filled) early in session
• ORB establishes $450-$451 after gap fill
• ORB breaks upward to $451.50
• Trade: LONG breakout (gap is filled, now resume rally)
ORB Fusion Integration: [/b>
Dashboard shows:
• Gap type (Up/Down/None)
• Gap size (percentage)
• Gap fill status (Filled ✓ / Open)
This informs setup confidence:
• ORB breakout AWAY from unfilled gap: +10% confidence (gap becomes support/resistance)
• ORB breakout TOWARD unfilled gap: -10% confidence (gap fill may override ORB)
[b>📈 VWAP & INSTITUTIONAL BIAS [/b>
[b>Volume-Weighted Average Price (VWAP): [/b>
Average price weighted by volume at each price level. Represents true "average" cost for the day.
[b>Calculation: Institutional Benchmark [/b>: Institutions (mutual funds, pension funds) use VWAP as performance benchmark. If they buy above VWAP, they underperformed; below VWAP, they outperformed.
2. [b>Algorithmic Target [/b>: Many algos are programmed to buy below VWAP and sell above VWAP to achieve "fair" execution.
3. [b>Support/Resistance [/b>: VWAP acts as dynamic support (price above) or resistance (price below).
[b>VWAP Bands (Standard Deviations): [/b>
• [b>1σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 1 standard deviation
- Contains ~68% of volume
- Normal trading range
- Bounces common
• [b>2σ Band [/b>: VWAP ± 2 standard deviations
- Contains ~95% of volume
- Extreme extension
- Mean reversion likely
ORB + VWAP Confluence: [/b>
Highest-probability setups occur when ORB and VWAP align:
Bullish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout upward (bullish signal)
• Price above VWAP (institutional buying)
• Confidence boost: +15%
Bearish Confluence: [/b>
• ORB breakout downward (bearish signal)
• Price below VWAP (institutional selling)
• Confidence boost: +15%
[b>Divergence Warning:
• ORB breakout upward BUT price below VWAP
• Conflict: Breakout says "buy," VWAP says "sell"
• Confidence penalty: -10%
• Interpretation: Retail buying but institutions not participating (lower quality breakout)
📊 MOMENTUM CONTEXT SYSTEM
[b>Innovation: Candle Coloring by Position
Rather than fixed support/resistance lines, ORB Fusion colors candles based on their [b>relationship to ORB :
[b>Three Zones: [/b>
1. Inside ORB (Blue Boxes): [/b>
[b>Calculation:
• Darker blue: Near extremes of ORB (potential breakout imminent)
• Lighter blue: Near ORB mid (consolidation)
[b>Trading: [/b> Coiled spring—await breakout.
[b>2. Above ORB (Green Boxes):
[b>Calculation: 3. Below ORB (Red Boxes):
Mirror of above ORB logic.
[b>Special Contexts: [/b>
[b>Breakout Bar (Darkest Green/Red): [/b>
The specific bar where breakout occurs gets maximum color intensity regardless of distance. This highlights the pivotal moment.
[b>Failed Breakout Bar (Orange/Warning): [/b>
When failed breakout is confirmed, that bar gets orange/warning color. Visual alert: "reversal opportunity here."
[b>Near Extension (Cyan/Magenta Tint): [/b>
When price is within 0.5 ATR of an extension level, candle gets tinted cyan (bull) or magenta (bear). Indicates "target approaching—prepare to take profit."
[b>Why Visual Context? [/b>
Traditional indicators show lines. ORB Fusion shows [b>context-aware momentum [/b>. Glance at chart:
• Lots of blue? Consolidation day (fade extremes).
• Progressive green? Trend day (follow).
• Green then orange? Failed breakout (reversal setup).
This visual language communicates market state instantly—no interpretation needed.
🎯 TRADE SETUP GENERATION & GRADING [/b>
[b>Algorithmic Setup Detection: [/b>
ORB Fusion continuously evaluates market state and generates current best trade setup with:
• Action (LONG / SHORT / FADE HIGH / FADE LOW / WAIT)
• Entry price
• Stop loss
• Three targets
• Risk:Reward ratio
• Confidence score (0-100)
• Grade (A+ to D)
[b>Setup Types: [/b>
[b>1. ORB LONG (Bullish Breakout): [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bullish ORB breakout confirmed
• Not failed
[b>Parameters:
• Entry: Current close
• Stop: ORB mid (protects against failure)
• T1: ORB High + 0.5x range (1.5x extension)
• T2: ORB High + 1.0x range (2.0x extension)
• T3: ORB High + 1.618x range (2.618x extension)
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• Bearish breakout occurred
• Failed (returned inside ORB)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: Close when failure confirmed
• Stop: Extreme low since breakout + 0.10 ATR
• T1: ORB Low + 0.5x range
• T2: ORB Low + 1.0x range (ORB mid)
• T3: ORB Low + 1.5x range
[b>Confidence Scoring:
[b>Trigger:
• Inside ORB
• Close > ORB mid (near high)
[b>Parameters: [/b>
• Entry: ORB High (limit order)
• Stop: ORB High + 0.2x range
• T1: ORB Mid
• T2: ORB Low
[b>Confidence Scoring: [/b>
Base: 40 points (lower base—range fading is lower probability than breakout/reversal)
[b>Use Case: [/b> Rotation days. Not recommended on normal/trend days.
[b>6. FADE LOW (Range Trade):
Mirror of FADE HIGH.
[b>7. WAIT:
[b>Trigger: [/b>
• ORB not complete yet OR
• No clear setup (price in no-man's-land)
[b>Action: [/b> Observe, don't trade.
[b>Confidence: [/b> 0 points
[b>Grading System:
```
Confidence → Grade
85-100 → A+
75-84 → A
65-74 → B+
55-64 → B
45-54 → C
0-44 → D
```
[b>Grade Interpretation: [/b>
• [b>A+ / A: High probability setup. Take these trades.
• [b>B+ / B [/b>: Decent setup. Trade if fits system rules.
• [b>C [/b>: Marginal setup. Only if very experienced.
• [b>D [/b>: Poor setup or no setup. Don't trade.
[b>Example Scenario: [/b>
ES futures:
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 point range)
• Bullish breakout to 5851 confirmed
• Volume: 2.0x average (confirmed)
• VWAP: 5845 (price above VWAP ✓)
• Day type: Developing (too early, no bonus)
• Gap: None
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Action: LONG
• Entry: 5851
• Stop: 5846 (ORB mid, -5 point risk)
• T1: 5854 (+3 points, 1:0.6 R:R)
• T2: 5858 (+7 points, 1:1.4 R:R)
• T3: 5862.94 (+11.94 points, 1:2.4 R:R)
[b>Confidence: LONG with 55% confidence.
Interpretation: Solid setup, not perfect. Trade it if your system allows B-grade signals.
[b>📊 STATISTICS TRACKING & PERFORMANCE ANALYSIS [/b>
[b>Real-Time Performance Metrics: [/b>
ORB Fusion tracks comprehensive statistics over user-defined lookback (default 50 days):
[b>Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Bull Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
• [b>Bear Breakouts: [/b> Total count, wins, losses, win rate
[b>Win Definition: [/b> Breakout reaches ≥1.0x extension (doubles the opening range) before end of day.
[b>Example: [/b>
• ORB: 5842-5850 (8 points)
• Bull breakout at 5851
• Reaches 5858 (1.0x extension) by close
• Result: WIN
[b>Failed Breakout Performance: [/b>
• [b>Total Failed Breakouts [/b>: Count of breakouts that failed
• [b>Reversal Wins [/b>: Count where reversal trade reached target
• [b>Failed Reversal Win Rate [/b>: Wins / Total Failed
[b>Win Definition for Reversals: [/b>
• Failed bull → reversal short reaches ORB mid
• Failed bear → reversal long reaches ORB mid
[b>Extension Tracking: [/b>
• [b>Average Extension Reached [/b>: Mean of maximum extension achieved across all breakout days
• [b>Max Extension Overall [/b>: Largest extension ever achieved in lookback period
[b>Example: 🎨 THREE DISPLAY MODES
[b>Design Philosophy: [/b>
Not all traders need all features. Beginners want simplicity. Professionals want everything. ORB Fusion adapts.
[b>SIMPLE MODE: [/b>
[b>Shows: [/b>
• Primary ORB levels (High, Mid, Low)
• ORB box
• Breakout signals (triangles)
• Failed breakout signals (crosses)
• Basic dashboard (ORB status, breakout status, setup)
• VWAP
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels and extensions
• ORB extensions beyond basic levels
• Gap analysis visuals
• Statistics dashboard
• Momentum candle coloring
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Traders who want clean chart
• Focus on core ORB concept only
• Mobile trading (less screen space)
[b>STANDARD MODE:
[b>Shows Everything in Simple Plus: [/b>
• Session ORBs (Asian, London, NY)
• IB levels (high, low, mid)
• IB extensions
• ORB extensions (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x)
• Gap analysis and fill targets
• VWAP bands (1σ and 2σ)
• Momentum candle coloring
• Context section in dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
[b>Hides: [/b>
• Advanced extensions (2.618x, 3.0x)
• Detailed statistics dashboard
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Most traders
• Balance between information and clarity
• Covers 90% of use cases
[b>ADVANCED MODE:
[b>Shows Everything:
• All session ORBs
• All IB levels and extensions
• All ORB extensions (including 2.618x and 3.0x)
• Full gap analysis
• VWAP with both 1σ and 2σ bands
• Momentum candle coloring
• Complete statistics dashboard
• Narrative dashboard
• All context metrics
[b>Use Case: [/b>
• Professional traders
• System developers
• Those who want maximum information density
[b>Switching Modes: [/b>
Single dropdown input: "Display Mode" → Simple / Standard / Advanced
Entire indicator adapts instantly. No need to toggle 20 individual settings.
📖 NARRATIVE DASHBOARD
[b>Innovation: Plain-English Market State [/b>
Most indicators show data. ORB Fusion explains what the data [b>means [/b>.
[b>Narrative Components: [/b>
[b>1. Phase: [/b>
• "📍 Building ORB..." (during ORB session)
• "📊 Trading Phase" (after ORB complete)
• "⏳ Pre-Market" (before ORB session)
[b>2. Status (Current Observation): [/b>
• "⚠️ Failed breakout - reversal likely"
• "🚀 Bullish momentum in play"
• "📉 Bearish momentum in play"
• "⚖️ Consolidating in range"
• "👀 Monitoring for setup"
[b>3. Next Level:
Tells you what to watch for:
• "🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00" (next extension target)
• "Watch ORB levels" (inside range, await breakout)
[b>4. Setup: [/b>
Current trade setup + grade:
• "LONG " (bullish breakout, A-grade)
• "🔥 SHORT REVERSAL " (failed bull breakout, A+-grade)
• "WAIT " (no setup)
[b>5. Reason: [/b>
Why this setup exists:
• "ORB Bullish Breakout"
• "Failed Bear Breakout - High Probability Reversal"
• "Range Fade - Near High"
[b>6. Tip (Market Insight):
Contextual advice:
• "🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops" (day type is trending)
• "🔄 ROTATION - Fade extremes" (day type is rotating)
• "📊 Gap unfilled - magnet level" (gap creates target)
• "📈 Normal conditions" (no special context)
[b>Example Narrative:
```
📖 ORB Narrative
━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━━
Phase | 📊 Trading Phase
Status | 🚀 Bullish momentum in play
Next | 🎯 1.5x @ 5854.00
📈 Setup | LONG
Reason | ORB Bullish Breakout
💡 Tip | 🔥 TREND DAY - Trail stops
```
[b>Glance Interpretation: [/b>
"We're in trading phase. Bullish breakout happened (momentum in play). Next target is 1.5x extension at 5854. Current setup is LONG with A-grade. It's a trend day, so trail stops (don't take early profits)."
Complete market state communicated in 6 lines. No interpretation needed.
[b>Why This Matters:
Beginner traders struggle with "So what?" question. Indicators show lines and signals, but what does it mean [/b>? Narrative dashboard bridges this gap.
Professional traders benefit too—rapid context assessment during fast-moving markets. No time to analyze; glance at narrative, get action plan.
🔔 INTELLIGENT ALERT SYSTEM
[b>Four Alert Types: [/b>
[b>1. Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> ORB breakout confirmed (bull or bear)
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🚀 ORB BULLISH BREAKOUT
Price: 5851.00
Volume Confirmed
Grade: A
```
[b>Frequency: [/b> Once per bar (prevents spam)
[b>2. Failed Breakout Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Breakout fails, reversal setup generated
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🔥 FAILED BULLISH BREAKOUT!
HIGH PROBABILITY SHORT REVERSAL
Entry: 5848.00
Stop: 5854.00
T1: 5846.00
T2: 5842.00
Historical Win Rate: 73%
```
[b>Why Comprehensive? [/b> Failed breakout alerts include complete trade plan. You can execute immediately from alert—no need to check chart.
[b>3. Extension Alert:
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price reaches extension level for first time
[b>Message: [/b>
```
🎯 Bull Extension 1.5x reached @ 5854.00
```
[b>Use: [/b> Profit-taking reminder. When extension hit, consider scaling out.
[b>4. IB Break Alert: [/b>
[b>Trigger: [/b> Price breaks above IB high or below IB low
[b>Message: [/b>
```
📊 IB HIGH BROKEN - Potential Trend Day
```
[b>Use: [/b> Day type classification. IB break suggests trend day developing—adjust strategy to trend-following mode.
[b>Alert Management: [/b>
Each alert type can be enabled/disabled independently. Prevents notification overload.
[b>Cooldown Logic: [/b>
Alerts won't fire if same alert type triggered within last bar. Prevents:
• "Breakout" alert every tick during choppy breakout
• Multiple "extension" alerts if price oscillates at level
Ensures: One clean alert per event.
⚙️ KEY PARAMETERS EXPLAINED
[b>Opening Range Settings: [/b>
• [b>ORB Timeframe [/b> (5/15/30/60 min): Duration of opening range window
- 30 min recommended for most traders
• [b>Use RTH Only [/b> (ON/OFF): Only trade during regular trading hours
- ON recommended (avoids thin overnight markets)
• [b>Use LTF Precision [/b> (ON/OFF): Sample 1-minute bars for accuracy
- ON recommended (critical for charts >1 minute)
• [b>Precision TF [/b> (1/5 min): Timeframe for LTF sampling
- 1 min recommended (most accurate)
[b>Session ORBs: [/b>
• [b>Show Asian/London/NY ORB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display multi-session ranges
- OFF in Simple mode
- ON in Standard/Advanced if trading 24hr markets
• [b>Session Windows [/b>: Time ranges for each session ORB
- Defaults align with major session opens
[b>Initial Balance: [/b>
• [b>Show IB [/b> (ON/OFF): Display Initial Balance levels
- ON recommended for day type classification
• [b>IB Session Window [/b> (0930-1030): First hour of trading
- Default is standard for US equities
• [b>Show IB Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project IB extension targets
- ON recommended (identifies trend days)
• [b>IB Extensions 1-4 [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x, 2.0x): Extension multipliers
- Defaults are Market Profile standard
[b>ORB Extensions: [/b>
• [b>Show Extensions [/b> (ON/OFF): Project ORB extension targets
- ON recommended (defines profit targets)
• [b>Enable Individual Extensions [/b> (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, 2.618x, 3.0x)
- Enable 1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x minimum
- Disable 2.618x and 3.0x unless trading very volatile instruments
[b>Breakout Detection:
• [b>Confirmation Method [/b> (Close/Wick/Body):
- Close recommended (best balance)
- Wick for scalping
- Body for conservative
• [b>Require Volume Confirmation [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (increases reliability)
• [b>Volume Multiplier [/b> (1.0-3.0):
- 1.5x recommended
- Lower for thin instruments
- Higher for heavy volume instruments
[b>Failed Breakout System: [/b>
• [b>Enable Failed Breakouts [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON strongly recommended (highest edge)
• [b>Bars to Confirm Failure [/b> (2-10):
- 3 bars recommended
- 2 for aggressive (more signals, more false failures)
- 5+ for conservative (fewer signals, higher quality)
• [b>Failure Buffer [/b> (0.0-0.5 ATR):
- 0.1 ATR recommended
- Filters noise during consolidation near ORB level
• [b>Show Reversal Targets [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (visualizes trade plan)
• [b>Reversal Target Mults [/b> (0.5x, 1.0x, 1.5x):
- Defaults are tested values
- Adjust based on average daily range
[b>Gap Analysis:
• [b>Show Gap Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON if trading instruments that gap frequently
- OFF for 24hr markets (forex, crypto—no gaps)
• [b>Gap Fill Target [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON to visualize previous close (gap fill level)
[b>VWAP:
• [b>Show VWAP [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (key institutional level)
• [b>Show VWAP Bands [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON in Standard/Advanced
- OFF in Simple
• [b>Band Multipliers (1.0σ, 2.0σ):
- Defaults are standard
- 1σ = normal range, 2σ = extreme
[b>Day Type: [/b>
• [b>Show Day Type Analysis [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON recommended (critical for strategy adaptation)
• [b>Trend Day Threshold [/b> (1.0-2.5 IB mult):
- 1.5x recommended
- When price extends >1.5x IB, classifies as Trend Day
[b>Enhanced Visuals:
• [b>Show Momentum Candles [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for visual context
- OFF if chart gets too colorful
• [b>Show Gradient Zone Fills [/b> (ON/OFF):
- ON for professional look
- OFF for minimalist chart
• [b>Label Display Mode [/b> (All/Adaptive/Minimal):
- Adaptive recommended (shows nearby labels only)
- All for information density
- Minimal for clean chart
• [b>Label Proximity [/b> (1.0-5.0 ATR):
- 3.0 ATR recommended
- Labels beyond this distance are hidden (Adaptive mode)
[b>🎓 PROFESSIONAL USAGE PROTOCOL [/b>
[b>Phase 1: Learning the System (Week 1) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Understand ORB concepts and dashboard interpretation
[b>Setup: [/b>
• Display Mode: STANDARD
• ORB Timeframe: 30 minutes
• Enable ALL features (IB, extensions, failed breakouts, VWAP, gap analysis)
• Enable statistics tracking
[b>Actions: [/b>
• Paper trade ONLY—no real money
• Observe ORB formation every day (9:30-10:00 AM ET for US markets)
• Note when ORB breakouts occur and if they extend
• Note when breakouts fail and reversals happen
• Watch day type classification evolve during session
• Track statistics—which setups are working?
[b>Key Learning: [/b>
• How often do breakouts reach 1.5x extension? (typically 50-60% of confirmed breakouts)
• How often do breakouts fail? (typically 30-40%)
• Which setup grade (A/B/C) actually performs best? (should see A-grade outperforming)
• What day type produces best results? (trend days favor breakouts, rotation days favor fades)
[b>Phase 2: Parameter Optimization (Week 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Tune system to your instrument and timeframe
[b>ORB Timeframe Selection:
• Run 5 days with 15-minute ORB
• Run 5 days with 30-minute ORB
• Compare: Which captures better breakouts on your instrument?
• Typically: 30-minute optimal for most, 15-minute for very liquid (ES, SPY)
[b>Volume Confirmation Testing:
• Run 5 days WITH volume confirmation
• Run 5 days WITHOUT volume confirmation
• Compare: Does volume confirmation increase win rate?
• If win rate improves by >5%: Keep volume confirmation ON
• If no improvement: Turn OFF (avoid missing valid breakouts)
[b>Failed Breakout Bars:
[b>Goal: [/b> Develop personal trading rules based on system signals
[b>Setup Selection Rules: [/b>
Define which setups you'll trade:
• [b>Conservative: [/b> Only A+ and A grades
• [b>Balanced: [/b> A+, A, B+ grades
• [b>Aggressive: [/b> All grades B and above
Test each approach for 5-10 trades, compare results.
[b>Position Sizing by Grade: [/b>
Consider risk-weighting by setup quality:
• A+ grade: 100% position size
• A grade: 75% position size
• B+ grade: 50% position size
• B grade: 25% position size
Example: If max risk is $1000/trade:
• A+ setup: Risk $1000
• A setup: Risk $750
• B+ setup: Risk $500
This matches bet sizing to edge.
[b>Day Type Adaptation: [/b>
Create rules for different day types:
Trend Days:
• Take ALL breakout signals (A/B/C grades)
• Hold for 2.0x extension minimum
• Trail stops aggressively (1.0 ATR trail)
• DON'T fade—reversals unlikely
Rotation Days:
• ONLY take failed breakout reversals
• Ignore initial breakout signals (likely to fail)
• Take profits quickly (0.5x extension)
• Focus on fade setups (Fade High/Fade Low)
Normal Days:
• Take A/A+ breakout signals only
• Take ALL failed breakout reversals (high probability)
• Target 1.0-1.5x extensions
• Partial profit-taking at extensions
Time-of-Day Rules: [/b>
Breakouts at different times have different probabilities:
10:00-10:30 AM (Early Breakout):
• ORB just completed
• Fresh breakout
• Probability: Moderate (50-55% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Conservative position sizing
10:30-12:00 PM (Mid-Morning):
• Momentum established
• Volume still healthy
• Probability: High (60-65% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Standard position sizing
12:00-2:00 PM (Lunch Doldrums):
• Volume dries up
• Whipsaw risk increases
• Probability: Low (40-45% reach 1.0x)
• Strategy: Avoid new entries OR reduce size 50%
2:00-4:00 PM (Afternoon Session):
• Late-day positioning
• EOD squeezes possible
• Probability: Moderate-High (55-60%)
• Strategy: Watch for IB break—if trending all day, follow
[b>Phase 4: Live Micro-Sizing (Month 2) [/b>
[b>Goal: [/b> Validate paper trading results with minimal risk
[b>Setup: [/b>
• 10-20% of intended full position size
• Take ONLY A+ and A grade setups
• Follow stop loss and targets religiously
[b>Execution: [/b>
• Execute from alerts OR from dashboard setup box
• Entry: Close of signal bar OR next bar market order
• Stop: Use exact stop from setup (don't widen)
• Targets: Scale out at T1/T2/T3 as indicated
[b>Tracking: [/b>
• Log every trade: Entry, Exit, Grade, Outcome, Day Type
• Calculate: Win rate, Average R-multiple, Max consecutive losses
• Compare to paper trading results (should be within 15%)
[b>Red Flags: [/b>
• Win rate <45%: System not suitable for this instrument/timeframe
• Major divergence from paper trading: Execution issues (slippage, late entries, emotional exits)
• Max consecutive losses >8: Hitting rough patch OR market regime changed
[b>Phase 5: Scaling Up (Months 3-6)
[b>Goal: [/b> Gradually increase to full position size
[b>Progression: [/b>
• Month 3: 25-40% size (if micro-sizing profitable)
• Month 4: 40-60% size
• Month 5: 60-80% size
• Month 6: 80-100% size
[b>Milestones Required to Scale Up: [/b>
• Minimum 30 trades at current size
• Win rate ≥48%
• Profit factor ≥1.2
• Max drawdown <20%
• Emotional control (no revenge trading, no FOMO)
[b>Advanced Techniques:
[b>Multi-Timeframe ORB: Assumes first 30-60 minutes establish value. Violation: Market opens after major news, price discovery continues for hours (opening range meaningless).
2. [b>Volume Indicates Conviction: ES, NQ, RTY, SPY, QQQ—high liquidity, clean ORB formation, reliable extensions
• [b>Large-Cap Stocks: AAPL, MSFT, TSLA, NVDA (>$5B market cap, >5M daily volume)
• [b>Liquid Futures: CL (crude oil), GC (gold), 6E (EUR/USD), ZB (bonds)—24hr markets benefit from session ORBs
• [b>Major Forex Pairs: [/b> EUR/USD, GBP/USD, USD/JPY—London/NY session ORBs work well
[b>Performs Poorly On: [/b>
• [b>Illiquid Stocks: <$1M daily volume, wide spreads, gappy price action
• [b>Penny Stocks: [/b> Manipulated, pump-and-dump, no real price discovery
• [b>Low-Volume ETFs: Exotic sector ETFs, leveraged products with thin volume
• [b>Crypto on Sketchy Exchanges: Wash trading, spoofing invalidates volume analysis
• [b>Earnings Days: [/b> ORB completes before earnings release, then completely resets (useless)
• Binary Event Days: FDA approvals, court rulings—discontinuous price action
[b>Known Weaknesses: [/b>
• [b>Slow Starts: ORB doesn't complete until 10:00 AM (30-min ORB). Early morning traders have no signals for 30 minutes. Consider using 15-minute ORB if this is problematic.
• [b>Failure Detection Lag: [/b> Failed breakout requires 3+ bars to confirm. By the time system signals reversal, price may have already moved significantly back inside range. Manual traders watching in real-time can enter earlier.
• [b>Extension Overshoot: [/b> System projects extensions mathematically (1.5x, 2.0x, etc.). Actual moves may stop short (1.3x) or overshoot (2.2x). Extensions are targets, not magnets.
• [b>Day Type Misclassification: [/b> Early in session, day type is "Developing." By the time it's classified definitively (often 11:00 AM+), half the day is over. Strategy adjustments happen late.
• [b>Gap Assumptions: [/b> System assumes gaps want to fill. Strong trend days never fill gaps (gap becomes support/resistance forever). Blindly trading toward gaps can backfire on trend days.
• [b>Volume Data Quality: Forex doesn't have centralized volume (uses tick volume as proxy—less reliable). Crypto volume is often fake (wash trading). Volume confirmation less effective on these instruments.
• [b>Multi-Session Complexity: [/b> When using Asian/London/NY ORBs simultaneously, chart becomes cluttered. Requires discipline to focus on relevant session for current time.
[b>Risk Factors: [/b>
• [b>Opening Gaps: Large gaps (>2%) can create distorted ORBs. Opening range might be unusually wide or narrow, making extensions unreliable.
• [b>Low Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX <12, opening ranges can be tiny (0.2-0.3%). Extensions are equally tiny. Profit targets don't justify commission/slippage.
• [b>High Volatility Environments:[/b> When VIX >30, opening ranges are huge (2-3%+). Extensions project unrealistic targets. Failed breakouts happen faster (volatility whipsaw).
• [b>Algorithm Dominance:[/b> In heavily algorithmic markets (ES during overnight session), ORB levels can be manipulated—algos pin price to ORB high/low intentionally. Breakouts become stop-runs rather than genuine directional moves.
[b>⚠️ RISK DISCLOSURE[/b>
Trading futures, stocks, options, forex, and cryptocurrencies involves substantial risk of loss and is not suitable for all investors. Opening Range Breakout strategies, while based on sound market structure principles, do not guarantee profits and can result in significant losses.
The ORB Fusion indicator implements professional trading concepts including Opening Range theory, Market Profile Initial Balance analysis, Fibonacci extensions, and failed breakout reversal logic. These methodologies have theoretical foundations but past performance—whether backtested or live—is not indicative of future results.
Opening Range theory assumes the first 30-60 minutes of trading establish a meaningful value area and that breakouts from this range signal directional conviction. This assumption may not hold during:
• Major news events (FOMC, NFP, earnings surprises)
• Market structure changes (circuit breakers, trading halts)
• Low liquidity periods (holidays, early closures)
• Algorithmic manipulation or spoofing
Failed breakout detection relies on patterns of trapped participant behavior. While historically these patterns have shown statistical edges, market conditions change. Institutional algorithms, changing market structure, or regime shifts can reduce or eliminate edges that existed historically.
Initial Balance classification (trend day vs rotation day vs normal day) is a heuristic framework, not a deterministic prediction. Day type can change mid-session. Early classification may prove incorrect as the day develops.
Extension projections (1.272x, 1.5x, 1.618x, 2.0x, etc.) are probabilistic targets derived from Fibonacci ratios and empirical market behavior. They are not "support and resistance levels" that price must reach or respect. Markets can stop short of extensions, overshoot them, or ignore them entirely.
Volume confirmation assumes high volume indicates institutional participation and conviction. In algorithmic markets, volume can be artificially high (HFT activity) or artificially low (dark pools, internalization). Volume is a proxy, not a guarantee of conviction.
LTF precision sampling improves ORB accuracy by using 1-minute bars but introduces additional data dependencies. If 1-minute data is unavailable, inaccurate, or delayed, ORB calculations will be incorrect.
The grading system (A+/A/B+/B/C/D) and confidence scores aggregate multiple factors (volume, VWAP, day type, IB expansion, gap context) into a single assessment. This is a mechanical calculation, not artificial intelligence. The system cannot adapt to unprecedented market conditions or events outside its programmed logic.
Real trading involves slippage, commissions, latency, partial fills, and rejected orders not present in indicator calculations. ORB Fusion generates signals at bar close; actual fills occur with delay. Opening range forms during highest volatility (first 30 minutes)—spreads widen, slippage increases. Execution quality significantly impacts realized results.
Statistics tracking (win rates, extension levels reached, day type distribution) is based on historical bars in your lookback window. If lookback is small (<50 bars) or market regime changed, statistics may not represent future probabilities.
Users must independently validate system performance on their specific instruments, timeframes, and broker execution environment. Paper trade extensively (100+ trades minimum) before risking capital. Start with micro position sizing (5-10% of intended size) for 50+ trades to validate execution quality matches expectations.
Never risk more than you can afford to lose completely. Use proper position sizing (0.5-2% risk per trade maximum). Implement stop losses on every single trade without exception. Understand that most retail traders lose money—sophisticated indicators do not change this fundamental reality. They systematize analysis but cannot eliminate risk.
The developer makes no warranties regarding profitability, suitability, accuracy, reliability, or fitness for any purpose. Users assume full responsibility for all trading decisions, parameter selections, risk management, and outcomes.
By using this indicator, you acknowledge that you have read, understood, and accepted these risk disclosures and limitations, and you accept full responsibility for all trading activity and potential losses.
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
[b>CLOSING STATEMENT[/b>
[b>═══════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════════[/b>
Opening Range Breakout is not a trick. It's a framework. The first 30-60 minutes reveal where participants believe value lies. Breakouts signal directional conviction. Failures signal trapped participants. Extensions define profit targets. Day types dictate strategy. Failed breakouts create the highest-probability reversals.
ORB Fusion doesn't predict the future—it identifies [b>structure[/b>, detects [b>breakouts[/b>, recognizes [b>failures[/b>, and generates [b>probabilistic trade plans[/b> with defined risk and reward.
The edge is not in the opening range itself. The edge is in recognizing when the market respects structure (follow breakouts) versus when it violates structure (fade breakouts). The edge is in detecting failures faster than discretionary traders. The edge is in systematic classification that prevents catastrophic errors—like fading a trend day or holding through rotation.
Most indicators draw lines. ORB Fusion implements a complete institutional trading methodology: Opening Range theory, Market Profile classification, failed breakout intelligence, Fibonacci projections, volume confirmation, gap psychology, and real-time performance tracking.
Whether you're a beginner learning market structure or a professional seeking systematic ORB implementation, this system provides the framework.
"The market's first word is its opening range. Everything after is commentary." — ORB Fusion
Microstructure Participation & Acceptance Indicator📊 Microstructure Participation & Acceptance Indicator
An advanced participation-based filter combining VWAP distance analysis, volume delta detection, and real-time acceptance/rejection state identification—designed for smaller timeframe trading.
📊 FEATURES
VWAP Distance Normalization
Context-aware fair value measurement:
Automatically resets based on selected anchor (Session/Week/Month)
ATR-normalized distance calculation for universal application
Identifies when price is extended or compressed relative to equilibrium
Configurable extreme distance threshold (default: 1.5 ATR)
Adjustable source input (default: HLC3)
Volume Delta Proxy
Bull vs Bear participation tracking:
Calculates volume imbalance between bullish and bearish candles
EMA smoothing for cleaner signal generation (default: 9 periods)
Delta ratio measurement to identify dominant side
Expansion/compression detection to gauge momentum commitment
Configurable expansion threshold (default: 1.3x)
Acceptance/Rejection State Machine
Real-time market regime identification with six distinct states:
🟢 Accepted Long
Price moving away from VWAP with expanding bullish delta
Distance from VWAP increasing
Volume confirming the move
Indicates real buying pressure—trade WITH the move
🟢 Accepted Short
Price moving away from VWAP with expanding bearish delta
Distance from VWAP increasing
Volume confirming the move
Indicates real selling pressure—trade WITH the move
🟠 Fade Long
Price extended beyond threshold (>1.5 ATR above VWAP)
Delta not supporting the extension
Volume participation absent or diminishing
Potential mean-reversion short setup
🟠 Fade Short
Price extended beyond threshold (>1.5 ATR below VWAP)
Delta not supporting the extension
Volume participation absent or diminishing
Potential mean-reversion long setup
⚪ Chop
Price compressed near VWAP
Bollinger Bands tight (width compressed)
Delta neutral—no clear commitment
NO TRADE ZONE—wait for expansion
⚪ Neutral
Transitional state between regimes
Momentum shifting but not yet confirmed
Monitor for next acceptance signal
Bollinger Bands
Standard volatility measurement with TradingView default styling:
Adjustable period length (default: 20)
Configurable standard deviation multiplier (default: 2.0)
Visual fill between bands for volatility context
Used internally for chop/compression detection
Live Dashboard
Real-time metrics display (top-right corner):
Current market state with color coding
VWAP distance in ATR units
Delta ratio (bull/bear volume balance)
Delta state (Expanding/Compressing)
High-contrast design for instant readability
🎯 HOW TO USE
For Trend Trading:
Accepted Long/Short backgrounds indicate confirmed participation—stay with the trend
Strong moves typically travel 1-1.5 ATR from VWAP with delta support
Use VWAP as dynamic support/resistance
Combine with momentum indicators (MACD, RSI) for confluence
Price above VWAP + Accepted Long state = bullish bias
Price below VWAP + Accepted Short state = bearish bias
For Mean Reversion:
Fade Long/Short states signal overextension without participation
Price beyond 1.5 ATR from VWAP with weak delta = potential reversal
Look for price return to VWAP when extended
Bollinger Band extremes + Fade state = high-probability mean reversion setup
VWAP acts as mean reversion anchor during range-bound sessions
For Risk Management:
Chop state = avoid new entries
Bollinger Band compression + Chop = pre-expansion zone (wait for breakout)
Delta compression after strong move = early exhaustion warning
State transitions (Accepted → Neutral → Fade) = tighten stops
Signal Confirmation:
Strongest setups occur when multiple factors align:
BB breakout + Accepted state + price above/below VWAP
Price rejection at BB bands + Fade state
VWAP support/resistance hold + state transition
Delta expansion + distance increasing + trend direction
⚙️ SETTINGS
All components are fully customizable through organized input groups:
VWAP Distance Group:
VWAP source (default: HLC3)
Anchor period (Session/Week/Month)
ATR length for normalization (default: 14)
Extreme distance threshold in ATR multiples (default: 1.5)
Volume Delta Group:
Delta EMA length (default: 9)
Delta expansion threshold (default: 1.3)
Acceptance Logic Group:
Acceptance lookback period (default: 5)
Chop threshold in VWAP/ATR units (default: 0.3)
Bollinger Bands Group:
BB length (default: 20)
Standard deviation multiplier (default: 2.0)
Display Group:
Toggle state backgrounds
Toggle state change labels
Toggle VWAP line
Toggle Bollinger Bands
💡 EDUCATIONAL VALUE
This indicator teaches important concepts:
How institutional money identifies fair value (VWAP)
The difference between price movement and market acceptance
Why volume participation matters more than price action alone
How to distinguish between noise and committed directional moves
The relationship between volatility compression and expansion cycles
Why distance from equilibrium predicts mean reversion probability
⚠️ IMPORTANT NOTES
This indicator is for educational and informational purposes only
This is a filter, not a standalone trading system
No indicator is perfect—always use proper risk management
Past performance does not guarantee future results
Combine with your own analysis and risk tolerance
Test thoroughly on historical data before live trading
This is not financial advice—use at your own risk
🔧 TECHNICAL DETAILS
Pine Script Version 6
Overlay indicator (displays on price chart)
All calculations use standard, well-documented formulas
No repainting—all signals are confirmed on bar close
Compatible with all timeframes and instruments
Optimized for smaller timeframes (1-5 minute charts)
Minimal computational overhead
📝 CHANGELOG
Version 1.0
Initial release
VWAP distance normalization with ATR scaling
Volume delta proxy system (bull/bear EMA)
6-state acceptance/rejection state machine
Bollinger Bands integration
Real-time dashboard with live metrics
State change labels and background coloring
Full customization options
Developed for traders who need objective participation filters to distinguish high-probability setups from low-quality noise—without cluttering their charts with multiple indicator panels.
AI-based Price action confluence dashboard# **AI-Based Price Action Confluence Dashboard - Publication Guide**
Here's a comprehensive introduction guide for your TradingView indicator publication:
***
## **📊 TITLE**
**AI-Based Price Action Confluence Dashboard**
***
## **🎯 SHORT DESCRIPTION** (For the summary field)
A sophisticated real-time confluence scoring system that analyzes multiple price action signals across 15-minute timeframes, providing traders with an AI-weighted scoring mechanism (0-6 scale) to identify high-probability trade setups through visual signal panels and intelligent path detection.
***
## **📝 FULL DESCRIPTION**
### **Overview**
The AI-Based Price Action Confluence Dashboard is an advanced technical indicator designed to eliminate guesswork in intraday trading by systematically scoring and displaying multiple price action signals in real-time. Unlike traditional single-indicator approaches, this dashboard employs a confluence methodology that combines multiple independent signals to provide stronger trade confirmations and reduce false signals.
This indicator is specifically optimized for **1-minute chart analysis** while monitoring **15-minute price structure**, making it ideal for day traders and scalpers who need precise entry timing with larger timeframe context.
***
### **🔑 Key Features**
**✅ Real-Time AI Confluence Scoring**
- Dynamic scoring system (0-6 points) for both bullish and bearish setups
- Visual meter display shows signal strength at a glance
- Color-coded backgrounds indicate confluence levels (strong, moderate, mixed)
**✅ Multi-Signal Analysis**
The dashboard tracks 6 distinct signal types:
1. **FTFC (First to Finish Close)** - Base & Bonus signals
2. **Long/Short Grab** - Liquidity sweep patterns (Path A)
3. **High/Low Hold** - Extended momentum confirmation (+2 bonus)
4. **2-Up/2-Down** - Clean breakout patterns (Path B)
5. **Breakaway** - First candle gap strategies
**✅ Intelligent Path Detection**
- Mutually exclusive path logic prevents signal conflicts
- Automatically identifies whether price is following a "sweep path" or "clean path"
- Unavailable paths are clearly marked with gray indicators
**✅ Visual Signal Panels**
- 🟢 Green Light = Bullish signal ACTIVE
- 🔴 Red Light = Bearish signal ACTIVE
- 🟡 Yellow Light = Signal BUILDING (conditions partially met)
- ⚪ White Light = Signal OFF
- ▪️ Gray Square = Path UNAVAILABLE (mutually exclusive)
**✅ Comprehensive Alert System**
- 10 different alert conditions covering all major signals
- Strong confluence alerts (5+ points)
- Individual signal completion alerts
- Customizable alert messages
***
### **📐 How It Works**
#### **The Confluence Methodology**
This indicator implements a sophisticated confluence trading approach where multiple independent price action signals are combined to identify high-probability setups. Each signal type contributes points to either the bullish or bearish score, with a maximum of 6 points per direction.
**Scoring Breakdown:**
**BULLISH SIGNALS:**
- FTFC Base (15m close > previous 15m close) = +1
- FTFC Bonus (price clears 15th candle high) = +1
- **PATH A (Sweep):** Long Grab = +1, High Hold Bonus = +2
- **PATH B (Clean):** 2-Up = +1, 2-Up Bonus = +1
- Breakaway (gap above first candle) = +1
**BEARISH SIGNALS:**
- FTFC Base (15m close < previous 15m close) = +1
- FTFC Bonus (price clears 15th candle low) = +1
- **PATH A (Sweep):** Short Grab = +1, Low Hold Bonus = +2
- **PATH B (Clean):** 2-Down = +1, 2-Down Bonus = +1
- Breakaway (gap below first candle) = +1
#### **Path Detection Logic**
The indicator automatically determines which path the market is following:
**PATH A: SWEEP PATH**
- Activated when previous 15m low (bull) or high (bear) is breached
- Indicates liquidity grab before reversal
- Includes powerful +2 bonus for "Hold" confirmations
- Mutually exclusive with Path B
**PATH B: CLEAN PATH**
- Activated when previous 15m low (bull) or high (bear) holds
- Indicates strong directional momentum without sweep
- Cleaner price action but smaller point potential
- Mutually exclusive with Path A
This mutual exclusivity prevents double-counting and ensures signal accuracy.
***
### **🎨 How to Use**
#### **Installation**
1. Add indicator to your 1-minute chart
2. The dashboard appears as a table overlay (default: top right)
3. No additional indicators required - this is a complete system
#### **Reading the Dashboard**
**Top Section - Confluence Meter:**
- Shows current bull/bear scores with visual dot meters
- Background color changes based on confluence strength:
- **Bright Green/Red** = 5+ points (strong directional bias)
- **Medium Green/Red** = 3+ points (moderate bias)
- **Orange** = 3+ points both sides (conflicting signals)
- **Gray** = Low confluence (choppy conditions)
**Signal Panels Section:**
- Each row shows a signal type with bull/bear lights side-by-side
- Active signals (🟢🔴) contribute to the total score
- Building signals (🟡) indicate potential setups forming
- Unavailable paths (▪️) show which exclusive path is blocked
#### **Trading Strategy**
**High-Probability Long Entries:**
- Bull score ≥ 5 AND bear score ≤ 1
- Multiple green lights active in signal panels
- PATH A or PATH B showing full completion
- Consider entry on pullback to key 15m level
**High-Probability Short Entries:**
- Bear score ≥ 5 AND bull score ≤ 1
- Multiple red lights active in signal panels
- PATH A or PATH B showing full completion
- Consider entry on rally to key 15m level
**Avoid Trading When:**
- Both scores are 3+ (conflicting signals)
- No path is showing active/building status
- Score is below 3 on both sides (low confluence)
#### **Risk Management**
- Use 15m swing high/low for stop placement
- Target opposing 15m level or previous session extremes
- Scale out at partial targets when confluence decreases
- Best results when combined with proper position sizing
***
### **⚙️ Customization**
**Dashboard Settings:**
- **Table Location:** Top Left, Top Right, Bottom Left, Bottom Right
- **Text Size:** Tiny, Small, Normal, Large
**Color Scheme:**
- **Bullish Color:** Customize green for bull signals (default: #00cc66)
- **Bearish Color:** Customize red for bear signals (default: #ff4444)
- **Building Color:** Customize yellow for forming signals (default: #ffaa00)
- **Inactive Color:** Customize gray for off signals (default: #555555)
- **Unavailable Color:** Customize dark gray for blocked paths (default: #333333)
All colors can be adjusted to match your chart theme or visual preferences.
***
### **🎯 Best Practices**
1. **Use on 1-minute charts only** - The indicator is calibrated for this timeframe
2. **Trade during liquid sessions** - Best results during NY/London overlap
3. **Wait for 3+ confluence** - Minimum threshold for trade consideration
4. **Watch path transitions** - Signal strength changes when paths flip
5. **Use alerts strategically** - Set alerts for 5+ confluence to catch strong setups
6. **Combine with volume** - High volume confirms signal validity
7. **Respect 15m structure** - Don't fight the larger timeframe bias
***
### **⚠️ Important Notes**
- This indicator is designed for **intraday trading only**
- Requires active monitoring during trading sessions
- Works best on liquid instruments (major forex pairs, indices, large-cap stocks)
- Not suitable for swing trading or position trading
- Past performance does not guarantee future results
- Always use proper risk management and position sizing
***
### **🏷️ Category**
**Oscillators** or **Volatility** (choose based on TradingView categories)
***
### **🏷️ Suggested Tags**
- confluence
- price action
- day trading
- scalping
- intraday
- signals
- dashboard
- multi-timeframe
- 1-minute
- 15-minute
***
### **📜 Disclaimer**
This indicator is a tool for technical analysis and should not be used as the sole basis for trading decisions. All trading involves risk, and you should never risk more than you can afford to lose. The developer assumes no responsibility for trading losses incurred through the use of this indicator. Always practice proper risk management and consider your own risk tolerance before trading.
Hybrid Strategy: Trend/ORB/MTFHybrid Strategy: Trend + ORB + Multi-Timeframe Matrix
This script is a comprehensive "Trading Manager" designed to filter out noise and identify high-probability breakout setups. It combines three powerful concepts into a single, clean chart interface: Trend Alignment, Opening Range Breakout (ORB), and Multi-Timeframe (MTF) Analysis.
It is designed to prevent "analysis paralysis" by providing a unified Dashboard that confirms if the trend is aligned across 5 different timeframes before you take a trade.
How it Works
The strategy relies on the "Golden Trio" of confluence:
1. Trend Definition (The Setup) Before looking for entries, the script analyzes the immediate trend. A bullish trend is defined as:
Price is above the Session VWAP.
The fast EMA (9) is above the slow EMA (21). (The inverse applies for bearish trends).
2. The Signal (The Trigger) The script draws the Opening Range (default: first 15 minutes of the session).
Buy Signal: Price breaks above the Opening Range High while the Trend is Bullish.
Sell Signal: Price breaks below the Opening Range Low while the Trend is Bearish.
3. The Confirmation (The Filter) A signal is only valid if the Higher Timeframe (default: 60m) agrees with the direction. If the 1m chart says "Buy" but the 60m chart is bearish, the signal is filtered out to prevent false breakouts.
Key Features
The Matrix Dashboard A zero-lag, real-time table in the corner of your screen that monitors 5 user-defined timeframes (e.g., 5m, 15m, 30m, 60m, 4H).
Trend: Checks if Price > EMA 21.
VWAP: Checks if Price > VWAP.
ORB: Checks if Price is currently above/below the Opening Range of that session.
D H/L: Warns if price is near the Daily High or Low.
PD H/L: Warns if price is near the Previous Daily High or Low.
Visual Order Blocks The script automatically identifies valid Order Blocks (sequences of consecutive candles followed by a strong explosive move).
Chart: Draws Green/Red zones extending to the right, showing where price may react.
Dashboard: Displays the exact High, Low, and Average price of the most recent Order Blocks for precision planning.
Risk Management (Trailing Stop) Once a trade is active, the script plots Chandelier Exit dots (ATR-based trailing stop) to help you manage the trade and lock in profits during trend runs.
Visual Guide (Chart Legend)
⬜ Gray Box: Represents the Opening Range (first 15 minutes). This is your "No Trade Zone." Wait for price to break out of this box.
🟢 Green Line: The Opening Range High. A break above this line signals potential Bullish momentum.
🔴 Red Line: The Opening Range Low. A break below this line signals potential Bearish momentum.
🟢 Green / 🔴 Red Zones (Boxes): These are Order Blocks.
🟢 Green Zone: A Bullish Order Block (Demand). Expect price to potentially bounce up from here.
🔴 Red Zone: A Bearish Order Block (Supply). Expect price to potentially reject down from here.
⚪ Dots (Trailing Stop):
🟢 Green Dots: These appear below price during a Bullish trend. They represent your suggested Stop Loss.
🔴 Red Dots: These appear above price during a Bearish trend.
🏷️ Buy / Sell Labels:
BUY: Triggers when Price breaks the Green Line + Trend is Bullish + HTF is Bullish.
SELL: Triggers when Price breaks the Red Line + Trend is Bearish + HTF is Bearish.
Settings
Session: Customizable RTH (Regular Trading Hours) to filter out pre-market noise.
Matrix Timeframes: 5 fixed slots to choose which timeframes you want to monitor.
Order Blocks: Adjust the sensitivity and lookback period for Order Block detection.
Risk: Customize the ATR multiplier for the trailing stop.
Disclaimer
This tool is for educational purposes only. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always manage your risk properly.
VR Volume Ratio + Divergence (Pro)成交量比率 (Volume Ratio, VR) 是一項通過分析股價上漲與下跌日的成交量，來研判市場資金氣氛的技術指標。本腳本基於傳統 VR 公式進行了優化，增加了**「趨勢變色」與「自動背離偵測」**功能，幫助交易者更精準地捕捉量價轉折點。
Introduction
Volume Ratio (VR) is a technical indicator that measures the strength of a trend by comparing the volume on up-days versus down-days. This script enhances the classic VR formula with "Trend Color Coding" and "Auto-Divergence Detection", helping traders identify volume-price reversals more accurately.
核心功能與參數
公式原理： VR = (Qu + Qf/2) / (Qd + Qf/2) * 100
Qu: 上漲日成交量 (Up volume)
Qd: 下跌日成交量 (Down volume)
Qf: 平盤日成交量 (Flat volume)
參數 (Length)：預設為 26 日，這是市場公認最有效的短中線參數。
關鍵水位線 (Key Levels)：
< 40% (底部區)：量縮極致，市場情緒冰點，常對應股價底部，適合尋找買點。
100% (中軸)：多空分界線。
> 260% (多頭警戒)：進入強勢多頭行情，但需注意過熱。
> 450% (頭部區)：成交量過大，市場情緒亢奮，通常為頭部訊號。
視覺優化 (Visuals)：
紅漲綠跌：當 VR 數值大於前一日顯示為紅色（動能增強）；小於前一日顯示為綠色（動能退潮）。
背離訊號 (Divergence)：自動標記量價背離。
▲ 底背離 (Bullish)：股價創新低，但 VR 指標墊高（主力吸籌）。
▼ 頂背離 (Bearish)：股價創新高，但 VR 指標走弱（買氣衰竭）。
Features & Settings
Formula Logic: Calculated as VR = (Qu + Qf/2) / (Qd + Qf/2) * 100.
Default Length: 26, widely regarded as the optimal setting for short-to-medium term analysis.
Key Zones:
< 40% (Oversold/Bottom): Extreme low volume, often indicating a market bottom and potential buying opportunity.
100% (Neutral): The balance point between bulls and bears.
> 260% (Bullish Zone): Strong uptrend, volume is expanding.
> 450% (Overbought/Top): Extreme high volume, often indicating a market top and potential reversal.
Visual Enhancements:
Color Coding: Line turns Red when VR rises (Momentum Up) and Green when VR falls (Momentum Down).
Divergence Signals: Automatically marks divergence points on the chart.
▲ Bullish Divergence: Price makes a lower low, but VR makes a higher low (Accumulation).
▼ Bearish Divergence: Price makes a higher high, but VR makes a lower high (Distribution).
應用策略建議
抄底策略：當 VR 跌破 40% 後，指標線由綠翻紅，或出現「▲底背離」訊號時，為極佳的波段進場點。
逃頂策略：當 VR 衝過 450% 進入高檔區，一旦指標線由紅翻綠，或出現「▼頂背離」訊號時，建議分批獲利了結。
Strategy Guide
Bottom Fishing: Look for entries when VR drops below 40% and turns red, or when a "▲ Bullish Divergence" label appears.
Taking Profit: Consider selling when VR exceeds 450% and turns green, or when a "▼ Bearish Divergence" label appears.
Disclaimer: This tool is for informational purposes only and does not constitute financial advice. / 本腳本僅供參考，不構成投資建議。
Market Regime# MARKET REGIME IDENTIFICATION & TRADING SYSTEM
## Complete User Guide
---
## 📋 TABLE OF CONTENTS
1. (#overview)
2. (#regimes)
3. (#indicator-usage)
4. (#entry-signals)
5. (#exit-signals)
6. (#regime-strategies)
7. (#confluence)
8. (#backtesting)
9. (#optimization)
10. (#examples)
---
## OVERVIEW
### What This System Does
This is a **complete market regime identification and trading system** that:
1. **Identifies 6 distinct market regimes** automatically
2. **Adapts trading tactics** to each regime
3. **Provides high-probability entry signals** with confluence scoring
4. **Shows optimal exit points** for each trade
5. **Can be backtested** to validate performance
### Two Components Provided
1. **Indicator** (`market_regime_indicator.pine`)
- Visual regime identification
- Entry/exit signals on chart
- Dynamic support/resistance
- Info tables with live data
- Use for manual trading
2. **Strategy** (`market_regime_strategy.pine`)
- Fully automated backtestable version
- Same logic as indicator
- Position sizing and risk management
- Performance metrics
- Use for backtesting and automation
---
## THE 6 MARKET REGIMES
### 1. 🟢 BULL TRENDING
**Characteristics:**
- Strong uptrend
- Price above SMA50 and SMA200
- ADX > 25 (strong trend)
- Higher highs and higher lows
- DI+ > DI- (bullish momentum)
**What It Means:**
- Market has clear upward direction
- Buyers in control
- Pullbacks are buying opportunities
- Strongest regime for long positions
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **BUY dips to EMA20 or SMA20**
- ✅ Enter when RSI < 60 on pullback
- ✅ Hold through minor corrections
- ❌ Don't short against the trend
- ❌ Don't sell too early
**Expected Behavior:**
- Pullbacks are shallow (5-10%)
- Bounces are strong
- Support at moving averages holds
- Volume increases on rallies
---
### 2. 🔴 BEAR TRENDING
**Characteristics:**
- Strong downtrend
- Price below SMA50 and SMA200
- ADX > 25 (strong trend)
- Lower highs and lower lows
- DI- > DI+ (bearish momentum)
**What It Means:**
- Market has clear downward direction
- Sellers in control
- Rallies are selling opportunities
- Strongest regime for short positions
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **SELL rallies to EMA20 or SMA20**
- ✅ Enter when RSI > 40 on bounce
- ✅ Hold through minor bounces
- ❌ Don't buy against the trend
- ❌ Don't cover shorts too early
**Expected Behavior:**
- Rallies are weak (5-10%)
- Selloffs are strong
- Resistance at moving averages holds
- Volume increases on declines
---
### 3. 🔵 BULL RANGING
**Characteristics:**
- Bullish bias but consolidating
- Price near or above SMA50
- ADX < 20 (weak trend)
- Trading in range
- Choppy price action
**What It Means:**
- Uptrend is pausing
- Accumulation phase
- Support and resistance zones clear
- Lower volatility
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **BUY at support zone**
- ✅ Enter when RSI < 40
- ✅ Take profits at resistance
- ⚠️ Smaller position sizes
- ⚠️ Tighter stops
**Expected Behavior:**
- Range-bound oscillations
- Support bounces repeatedly
- Resistance rejections common
- Eventually breaks higher (usually)
---
### 4. 🟠 BEAR RANGING
**Characteristics:**
- Bearish bias but consolidating
- Price near or below SMA50
- ADX < 20 (weak trend)
- Trading in range
- Choppy price action
**What It Means:**
- Downtrend is pausing
- Distribution phase
- Support and resistance zones clear
- Lower volatility
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **SELL at resistance zone**
- ✅ Enter when RSI > 60
- ✅ Take profits at support
- ⚠️ Smaller position sizes
- ⚠️ Tighter stops
**Expected Behavior:**
- Range-bound oscillations
- Resistance holds repeatedly
- Support bounces are weak
- Eventually breaks lower (usually)
---
### 5. ⚪ CONSOLIDATION
**Characteristics:**
- No clear direction
- Range compression
- Very low ADX (< 15 often)
- Price inside tight range
- Neutral sentiment
**What It Means:**
- Market is coiling
- Building energy for next move
- Indecision between buyers/sellers
- Calm before the storm
**How to Trade:**
- ✅ **WAIT for breakout direction**
- ✅ Enter on high-volume breakout
- ✅ Direction becomes clear
- ❌ Don't trade inside the range
- ❌ Avoid choppy scalping
**Expected Behavior:**
- Narrow range
- Low volume
- False breakouts possible
- Explosive move when it breaks
---
### 6. 🟣 CHAOS (High Volatility)
**Characteristics:**
- Extreme volatility
- No clear direction
- Erratic price swings
- ATR > 2x average
- Unpredictable
**What It Means:**
- Market panic or euphoria
- News-driven moves
- Emotion dominates logic
- Highest risk environment
**How to Trade:**
- ❌ **STAY OUT!**
- ❌ No positions
- ❌ Wait for stability
- ✅ Protect existing positions
- ✅ Reduce risk
**Expected Behavior:**
- Large intraday swings
- Gaps up/down
- Stop hunts
- Whipsaws
- Eventually calms down
---
## INDICATOR USAGE
### Visual Elements
#### 1. Background Colors
- **Light Green** = Bull Trending (go long)
- **Light Red** = Bear Trending (go short)
- **Light Teal** = Bull Ranging (buy dips)
- **Light Orange** = Bear Ranging (sell rallies)
- **Light Gray** = Consolidation (wait)
- **Purple** = Chaos (stay out!)
#### 2. Regime Labels
- Appear when regime changes
- Show new regime name
- Positioned at highs (bullish) or lows (bearish)
#### 3. Entry Signals
- **Green "LONG"** labels = Buy here
- **Red "SHORT"** labels = Sell here
- Number shows confluence score (X/5 signals)
- Hover for details (stop, target, RSI, etc.)
#### 4. Exit Signals
- **Orange "EXIT LONG"** = Close long position
- **Orange "EXIT SHORT"** = Close short position
- Shows exit reason in tooltip
#### 5. Support/Resistance Lines
- **Green line** = Dynamic support (buy zone)
- **Red line** = Dynamic resistance (sell zone)
- Adapts to regime automatically
#### 6. Moving Averages
- **Blue** = SMA 20 (short-term trend)
- **Orange** = SMA 50 (medium-term trend)
- **Purple** = SMA 200 (long-term trend)
### Information Tables
#### Top Right Table (Main Info)
Shows real-time market conditions:
- **Current Regime** - What regime we're in
- **Bias** - Long, Short, Breakout, or Stay Out
- **ADX** - Trend strength (>25 = strong)
- **Trend** - Strong, Moderate, or Weak
- **Volatility** - High or Normal
- **Vol Ratio** - Current vs average volatility
- **RSI** - Momentum (>70 overbought, <30 oversold)
- **vs SMA50/200** - Price position relative to MAs
- **Support/Resistance** - Exact price levels
- **Long/Short Signals** - Confluence scores (X/5)
#### Bottom Right Table (Regime Guide)
Quick reference for each regime:
- What action to take
- What strategy to use
- Color-coded for quick identification
---
## ENTRY SIGNALS EXPLAINED
### Confluence Scoring System (5 Factors)
Each entry signal is scored 0-5 based on how many factors align:
#### For LONG Entries:
1. ✅ **Regime Alignment** - In Bull Trending or Bull Ranging
2. ✅ **RSI Pullback** - RSI between 35-50 (not overbought)
3. ✅ **Near Support** - Price within 2% of dynamic support
4. ✅ **MACD Turning Up** - Momentum shifting bullish
5. ✅ **Volume Confirmation** - Above average volume
#### For SHORT Entries:
1. ✅ **Regime Alignment** - In Bear Trending or Bear Ranging
2. ✅ **RSI Rejection** - RSI between 50-65 (not oversold)
3. ✅ **Near Resistance** - Price within 2% of dynamic resistance
4. ✅ **MACD Turning Down** - Momentum shifting bearish
5. ✅ **Volume Confirmation** - Above average volume
### Confluence Requirements
**Minimum Confluence** (default = 2):
- 2/5 = Entry signal triggered
- 3/5 = Good signal
- 4/5 = Strong signal
- 5/5 = Excellent signal (rare)
**Higher confluence = Higher probability = Better trades**
### Specific Entry Patterns
#### 1. Bull Trending Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bull Trending
- Price pulls back to EMA20
- Close above EMA20 (bounce)
- Up candle (close > open)
- RSI < 60
- Confluence ≥ 2
```
#### 2. Bear Trending Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bear Trending
- Price rallies to EMA20
- Close below EMA20 (rejection)
- Down candle (close < open)
- RSI > 40
- Confluence ≥ 2
```
#### 3. Bull Ranging Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bull Ranging
- RSI < 40 (oversold)
- Price at or below support
- Up candle (reversal)
- Confluence ≥ 1 (more lenient)
```
#### 4. Bear Ranging Entry
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Bear Ranging
- RSI > 60 (overbought)
- Price at or above resistance
- Down candle (rejection)
- Confluence ≥ 1 (more lenient)
```
#### 5. Consolidation Breakout
```
Requirements:
- Regime = Consolidation
- Price breaks above/below range
- Volume > 1.5x average (explosive)
- Strong directional candle
```
---
## EXIT SIGNALS EXPLAINED
### Three Types of Exits
#### 1. Regime Change Exits (Automatic)
- **Long Exit**: Regime changes to Bear Trending or Chaos
- **Short Exit**: Regime changes to Bull Trending or Chaos
- **Reason**: Market character changed, strategy no longer valid
#### 2. Support/Resistance Break Exits
- **Long Exit**: Price breaks below support by 2%
- **Short Exit**: Price breaks above resistance by 2%
- **Reason**: Key level violated, trend may be reversing
#### 3. Momentum Exits
- **Long Exit**: RSI > 70 (overbought) AND down candle
- **Short Exit**: RSI < 30 (oversold) AND up candle
- **Reason**: Overextension, take profits
### Stop Loss & Take Profit
**Stop Loss** (Automatic in strategy):
- Placed at Entry - (ATR × 2)
- Adapts to volatility
- Protected from whipsaws
- Typically 2-4% for stocks, 5-10% for crypto
**Take Profit** (Automatic in strategy):
- Placed at Entry + (Stop Distance × R:R Ratio)
- Default 2.5:1 reward:risk
- Example: $2 risk = $5 reward target
- Allows winners to run
---
## TRADING EACH REGIME
### BULL TRENDING - Most Profitable Long Environment
**Strategy: Buy Every Dip**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for pullback to EMA20 or SMA20
2. Look for RSI < 60
3. Enter when candle closes above MA
4. Confluence should be 2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Below the recent swing low
- Or 2 × ATR below entry
**Take Profit:**
- At previous high
- Or 2.5:1 R:R minimum
**Position Size:**
- Can use full size (2% risk)
- High win rate regime
**Example Trade:**
```
Price: $100, pulls back to $98 (EMA20)
Entry: $98.50 (close above EMA)
Stop: $96.50 (2 ATR)
Target: $103.50 (2.5:1)
Risk: $2, Reward: $5
```
---
### BEAR TRENDING - Most Profitable Short Environment
**Strategy: Sell Every Rally**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for bounce to EMA20 or SMA20
2. Look for RSI > 40
3. Enter when candle closes below MA
4. Confluence should be 2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Above the recent swing high
- Or 2 × ATR above entry
**Take Profit:**
- At previous low
- Or 2.5:1 R:R minimum
**Position Size:**
- Can use full size (2% risk)
- High win rate regime
**Example Trade:**
```
Price: $100, rallies to $102 (EMA20)
Entry: $101.50 (close below EMA)
Stop: $103.50 (2 ATR)
Target: $96.50 (2.5:1)
Risk: $2, Reward: $5
```
---
### BULL RANGING - Buy Low, Sell High
**Strategy: Range Trading (Long Bias)**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for price at support zone
2. Look for RSI < 40
3. Enter on reversal candle
4. Confluence should be 1-2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Below support zone
- Tighter than trending (1.5 ATR)
**Take Profit:**
- At resistance zone
- Don't hold through resistance
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1-1.5% risk
- Lower win rate than trending
**Example Trade:**
```
Range: $95-$105
Entry: $96 (at support, RSI 35)
Stop: $94 (below support)
Target: $104 (at resistance)
Risk: $2, Reward: $8 (4:1)
```
---
### BEAR RANGING - Sell High, Buy Low
**Strategy: Range Trading (Short Bias)**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Wait for price at resistance zone
2. Look for RSI > 60
3. Enter on rejection candle
4. Confluence should be 1-2+
**Stop Loss:**
- Above resistance zone
- Tighter than trending (1.5 ATR)
**Take Profit:**
- At support zone
- Don't hold through support
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1-1.5% risk
- Lower win rate than trending
**Example Trade:**
```
Range: $95-$105
Entry: $104 (at resistance, RSI 65)
Stop: $106 (above resistance)
Target: $96 (at support)
Risk: $2, Reward: $8 (4:1)
```
---
### CONSOLIDATION - Wait for Breakout
**Strategy: Breakout Trading**
**Entry Rules:**
1. Identify consolidation range
2. Wait for VOLUME SURGE (1.5x+ avg)
3. Enter on close outside range
4. Direction must be clear
**Stop Loss:**
- Opposite side of range
- Or 2 ATR
**Take Profit:**
- Measure range height, project it
- Example: $10 range = $10 move expected
**Position Size:**
- Reduce to 1% risk
- 50% false breakout rate
**Example Trade:**
```
Consolidation: $98-$102 (4-point range)
Breakout: $102.50 (high volume)
Entry: $103
Stop: $100 (back in range)
Target: $107 (4-point range projected)
Risk: $3, Reward: $4
```
---
### CHAOS - STAY OUT!
**Strategy: Preservation**
**What to Do:**
- ❌ NO new positions
- ✅ Close existing positions if near entry
- ✅ Tighten stops on profitable trades
- ✅ Reduce position sizes dramatically
- ✅ Wait for regime to stabilize
**Why It's Dangerous:**
- Stop hunts are common
- Whipsaws everywhere
- News-driven volatility
- No technical reliability
- Even "perfect" setups fail
**When Does It End:**
- Volatility ratio drops < 1.5
- ADX starts rising (direction appears)
- Price respects support/resistance again
- Usually 1-5 days
---
## CONFLUENCE SYSTEM
### How It Works
The system scores each potential entry on 5 factors. More factors aligning = higher probability.
### Confluence Requirements by Regime
**Trending Regimes** (strictest):
- Minimum 2/5 required
- 3/5 = Good
- 4-5/5 = Excellent
**Ranging Regimes** (moderate):
- Minimum 1-2/5 required
- 2/5 = Good
- 3+/5 = Excellent
**Consolidation** (breakout only):
- Volume is most critical
- Direction confirmation
- Less confluence needed
### Adjusting Minimum Confluence
**If too few signals:**
- Lower from 2 to 1
- More trades, lower quality
**If too many false signals:**
- Raise from 2 to 3
- Fewer trades, higher quality
**Recommendation:**
- Start at 2
- Adjust based on win rate
- Aim for 55-65% win rate
---
## STRATEGY BACKTESTING
### Loading the Strategy
1. Copy `market_regime_strategy.pine`
2. Open Pine Editor in TradingView
3. Paste and "Add to Chart"
4. Strategy Tester tab opens at bottom
### Initial Settings
```
Risk Per Trade: 2%
ATR Stop Multiplier: 2.0
Reward:Risk Ratio: 2.5
Trade Longs: ✓
Trade Shorts: ✓
Trade Trending Only: ✗ (test both)
Avoid Chaos: ✓
Minimum Confluence: 2
```
### What to Look For
**Good Results:**
- Win Rate: 50-60%
- Profit Factor: 1.8-2.5
- Net Profit: Positive
- Max Drawdown: <20%
- Consistent equity curve
**Warning Signs:**
- Win Rate: <45% (too many losses)
- Profit Factor: <1.5 (barely profitable)
- Max Drawdown: >30% (too risky)
- Erratic equity curve (unstable)
### Testing Different Regimes
**Test 1: Trending Only**
```
Trade Trending Only: ✓
Result: Higher win rate, fewer trades
```
**Test 2: All Regimes**
```
Trade Trending Only: ✗
Result: More trades, potentially lower win rate
```
**Test 3: Long Only**
```
Trade Longs: ✓
Trade Shorts: ✗
Result: Works in bull markets
```
**Test 4: Short Only**
```
Trade Longs: ✗
Trade Shorts: ✓
Result: Works in bear markets
```
---
## SETTINGS OPTIMIZATION
### Key Parameters to Adjust
#### 1. Risk Per Trade (Most Important)
- **0.5%** = Very conservative
- **1.0%** = Conservative (recommended for beginners)
- **2.0%** = Moderate (recommended)
- **3.0%** = Aggressive
- **5.0%** = Very aggressive (not recommended)
**Impact:** Higher risk = higher returns BUT bigger drawdowns
#### 2. Reward:Risk Ratio
- **2:1** = More wins needed, hit target faster
- **2.5:1** = Balanced (recommended)
- **3:1** = Fewer wins needed, hold longer
- **4:1** = Very patient, best in trending
**Impact:** Higher R:R = can have lower win rate
#### 3. Minimum Confluence
- **1** = More signals, lower quality
- **2** = Balanced (recommended)
- **3** = Fewer signals, higher quality
- **4** = Very selective
- **5** = Almost never triggers
**Impact:** Higher = fewer but better trades
#### 4. ADX Thresholds
- **Trending: 20-30** (default 25)
- Lower = detect trends earlier
- Higher = only strong trends
- **Ranging: 15-25** (default 20)
- Lower = identify ranging earlier
- Higher = only weak trends
#### 5. Trend Period (SMA)
- **20-50** = Short-term trends
- **50** = Medium-term (default, recommended)
- **100-200** = Long-term trends
**Impact:** Longer period = slower regime changes, more stable
### Optimization Workflow
**Step 1: Baseline**
- Use all default settings
- Test on 3+ years
- Record: Win Rate, PF, Drawdown
**Step 2: Risk Optimization**
- Test 1%, 1.5%, 2%, 2.5%
- Find best risk-adjusted return
- Balance profit vs drawdown
**Step 3: R:R Optimization**
- Test 2:1, 2.5:1, 3:1
- Check which maximizes profit factor
- Consider holding time
**Step 4: Confluence Optimization**
- Test 1, 2, 3
- Find sweet spot for win rate
- Aim for 55-65% win rate
**Step 5: Regime Filter**
- Test with/without trend filter
- Test with/without chaos filter
- Find what works for your asset
---
## REAL TRADING EXAMPLES
### Example 1: Bull Trending - SPY
**Setup:**
- Regime: BULL TRENDING
- Price pulls back from $450 to $445
- EMA20 at $444
- RSI drops to 45
- Confluence: 4/5
**Entry:**
- Price closes at $445.50 (above EMA20)
- LONG signal appears
- Enter at $445.50
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $443 (2 ATR = $2.50)
- Target: $451.75 (2.5:1 = $6.25)
- Risk: $2.50 per share
- Position: 80 shares (2% of $10k = $200 risk)
**Outcome:**
- Price rallies to $452 in 3 days
- Target hit
- Profit: $6.50 × 80 = $520
- Return: 2.6 × risk (excellent)
---
### Example 2: Bear Ranging - AAPL
**Setup:**
- Regime: BEAR RANGING
- Range: $165-$175
- Price rallies to $174
- Resistance at $175
- RSI at 68
- Confluence: 3/5
**Entry:**
- Rejection candle at $174
- SHORT signal appears
- Enter at $173.50
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $176 (above resistance)
- Target: $166 (support)
- Risk: $2.50
- Position: 80 shares
**Outcome:**
- Price drops to $167 in 2 days
- Target hit
- Profit: $6.50 × 80 = $520
- Return: 2.6 × risk
---
### Example 3: Consolidation Breakout - BTC
**Setup:**
- Regime: CONSOLIDATION
- Range: $28,000 - $30,000
- Compressed for 2 weeks
- Volume declining
**Breakout:**
- Price breaks $30,000
- Volume surges 200%
- Close at $30,500
- LONG signal
**Entry:**
- Enter at $30,500
**Risk Management:**
- Stop: $29,500 (back in range)
- Target: $32,000 (range height = $2k)
- Risk: $1,000
- Position: 0.2 BTC ($200 risk on $10k)
**Outcome:**
- Price runs to $33,000
- Target exceeded
- Profit: $2,500 × 0.2 = $500
- Return: 2.5 × risk
---
### Example 4: Avoiding Chaos - Tesla
**Setup:**
- Regime: BULL TRENDING
- LONG position from $240
- Elon tweets something crazy
- Regime changes to CHAOS
**Action:**
- EXIT signal appears
- Close position immediately
- Current price: $242 (small profit)
**Outcome:**
- Next 3 days: wild swings
- High $255, Low $230
- By staying out, avoided:
- Potential stop out
- Whipsaw losses
- Stress
**Result:**
- Small profit preserved
- Capital protected
- Re-enter when regime stabilizes
---
## ALERTS SETUP
### Available Alerts
1. **Bull Trending Regime** - Market goes bullish
2. **Bear Trending Regime** - Market goes bearish
3. **Chaos Regime** - High volatility, stay out
4. **Long Entry Signal** - Buy opportunity
5. **Short Entry Signal** - Sell opportunity
6. **Long Exit Signal** - Close long
7. **Short Exit Signal** - Close short
### How to Set Up
1. Click **⏰ (Alert)** icon in TradingView
2. Select **Condition**: Choose indicator + alert type
3. **Options**: Popup, Email, Webhook, etc.
4. **Message**: Customize notification
5. Click **Create**
### Recommended Alert Strategy
**For Active Traders:**
- Long Entry Signal
- Short Entry Signal
- Long Exit Signal
- Short Exit Signal
**For Position Traders:**
- Bull Trending Regime (enter longs)
- Bear Trending Regime (enter shorts)
- Chaos Regime (exit all)
**For Conservative:**
- Only regime change alerts
- Manually review entries
- More selective
---
## TIPS FOR SUCCESS
### 1. Start Small
- Paper trade first
- Then 0.5% risk
- Build to 1-2% over time
### 2. Follow the Regime
- Don't fight it
- Adapt your style
- Different tactics for each
### 3. Trust the Confluence
- 4-5/5 = Best trades
- 2-3/5 = Good trades
- 1/5 = Skip unless desperate
### 4. Respect Exits
- Don't hope and hold
- Cut losses quickly
- Take profits at targets
### 5. Avoid Chaos
- Seriously, just stay out
- Protect your capital
- Wait for clarity
### 6. Keep a Journal
- Record every trade
- Note regime and confluence
- Review weekly
- Learn patterns
### 7. Backtest Thoroughly
- 3+ years minimum
- Multiple market conditions
- Different assets
- Walk-forward test
### 8. Be Patient
- Best setups are rare
- 1-3 trades per week is normal
- Quality over quantity
- Compound over time
---
## COMMON QUESTIONS
**Q: How many trades per month should I expect?**
A: Depends on timeframe and settings. Daily chart: 5-15 trades/month. 4H chart: 15-30 trades/month.
**Q: What's a good win rate?**
A: 55-65% is excellent. 50-55% is good. Below 50% needs adjustment.
**Q: Should I trade all regimes?**
A: Beginners: Only trending. Intermediate: Trending + ranging. Advanced: All except chaos.
**Q: Can I use this on any timeframe?**
A: Best on Daily and 4H. Works on 1H with more noise. Not recommended <1H.
**Q: What if I'm in a trade and regime changes?**
A: Exit immediately (if using indicator) or let strategy handle it automatically.
**Q: How do I know if I'm over-optimizing?**
A: If results are perfect on one period but fail on another. Use walk-forward testing.
**Q: Should I always take 5/5 confluence trades?**
A: Yes, but they're rare (1-2/month). Don't wait only for these.
**Q: Can I combine this with other indicators?**
A: Yes, but keep it simple. RSI, MACD already included. Maybe add volume profile.
**Q: What assets work best?**
A: Liquid stocks, major crypto, futures. Avoid forex spot (use futures), penny stocks.
**Q: How long to hold positions?**
A: Trending: Days to weeks. Ranging: Hours to days. Breakout: Days. Let the regime guide you.
---
## FINAL THOUGHTS
This system gives you:
- ✅ Clear market context (regime)
- ✅ High-probability entries (confluence)
- ✅ Defined exits (automatic signals)
- ✅ Adaptable tactics (regime-specific)
- ✅ Backtestable results (strategy version)
**Success requires:**
- 📚 Understanding each regime
- 🎯 Following the signals
- 💪 Discipline to wait
- 🧠 Emotional control
- 📊 Proper risk management
**Start your journey:**
1. Load the indicator
2. Watch for 1 week (no trading)
3. Identify regime patterns
4. Paper trade for 1 month
5. Go live with small size
6. Scale up as you gain confidence
**Remember:** The market will always be here. There's no rush. Master one regime at a time, and you'll be profitable in all conditions!
Good luck! 🚀
Relative Volume Bollinger Band %
The Relative Volume Bollinger Band % indicator is a powerful tool designed for traders seeking insights into volume, Bollinger band and relative strength dynamics. This indicator assesses the deviation of a security's trading volume relative to the Bollinger band % indicator and the RSI moving average. Together, these shed light on potential zones of interests where market shifts have a high probability of occurring.
Key Features:
Period: Tailor the indicator's sensitivity by adjusting the period of the smooth moving average and/or the period of the Bollinger band.
How it Works:
Moving Average Calculation: The script computes the simple moving average (SMA) of the relative strength over a defined period. When the higher SMA (orange line) is in the top grey zone, the security is in a zone where it has a high probability of becoming bullish. When the higher SMA is in the lower grey zone, the security is in a zone where it has a high probability of becoming bearish.
-Bollinger Band %: The script also computes the BB% which is primarily used to confirm overbought and oversold areas. When overbought, it turns white and remains white until the overbuying pressure is released indicating that the security is about to become bearish. The script indicates a bearish reversal when the BB% and RVOL bars are both red or when there are no more yellow RVOL bars, if present. When the BB% is<0 and rising, it will also appear white with yellow RVOL bars above. This is a good indication that bulls are beginning to enter buying positions. Confirmation here is indicated when the yellow RVOL bars change to green.
Relative Volume: The indicator then also normalizes the difference volume to indicate areas of high and low volatility. This shows where higher than normal volumes are being traded and can be used as a good indication of when to enter or exit a trade when the above criterions are met.
Visual Representation: The result is visually represented on the chart using columns. Bright green columns signify bullish relative volume values that are much greater than normal. Green columns signify bullish relative volume values that are significant. Red columns represent bearish values that are significant. Blue columns on the BB% indicator represent significant bullish buying in overbought areas. Red columns on the BB% indicator that are < 0 represent a bearish trend that is in an oversold area. This is there to prevent early entry into the market.
Enhancements:
Areas of Interest: Optionally, Areas of interest are represented by red, yellow and green circles on the higher SMA line, aiding in the identification of significant deviations.
able FRVP Reversal# able FRVP Reversal - Complete User Guide
## 📌 Overview
**able FRVP Reversal** is a professional-grade Volume Profile indicator with an integrated reversal detection system. It combines Fixed Range Volume Profile (FRVP) analysis with a confluence-based reversal scoring system to identify high-probability turning points at key volume levels.
---
## ✨ Key Features
| Feature | Description |
|---------|-------------|
| **Session-Based Volume Profile** | Automatically resets at the beginning of each regular trading session |
| **POC (Point of Control)** | Highest volume price level - strongest support/resistance |
| **VAH (Value Area High)** | Upper boundary of the 70% value area - resistance zone |
| **VAL (Value Area Low)** | Lower boundary of the 70% value area - support zone |
| **Confluence Scoring System** | 5-point scoring system for reversal detection |
| **Smart Cooldown** | Prevents signal spam with customizable cooldown period |
| **Real-time Info Table** | Displays all key metrics in a retro-style dashboard |
---
## 🔧 Installation
1. Open TradingView and go to **Pine Editor**
2. Delete any existing code and paste the indicator code
3. Click **"Add to Chart"**
4. Configure settings as needed
---
## ⚙️ Settings Explained
### 📊 Volume Profile Settings
| Setting | Default | Description |
|---------|---------|-------------|
| **Number of Rows** | 50 | Resolution of the volume profile (more rows = finer detail) |
| **Value Area %** | 70 | Percentage of volume to include in Value Area (industry standard: 70%) |
| **Profile Width** | 40 | Visual width of the histogram on chart |
| **Show Histogram** | ✓ | Display volume histogram bars |
| **Show POC/VAH/VAL** | ✓ | Display the three key levels |
| **Show Labels** | ✓ | Display price labels for each level |
| **Extend Lines** | ✓ | Extend levels to the right of current price |
| **Extend Length** | 100 | How far to extend the lines (in bars) |
### 🔄 Reversal Detection Settings
| Setting | Default | Description |
|---------|---------|-------------|
| **Enable Reversal Detection** | ✓ | Turn reversal signals on/off |
| **Min Confluence Score** | 3 | Minimum score required to trigger signal (1-5) |
| **Cooldown Bars** | 10 | Minimum bars between signals to prevent spam |
#### Understanding Min Confluence Score:
- **Score 1-2**: Very sensitive, many signals (not recommended)
- **Score 3**: Balanced - good for most traders ⭐ Recommended
- **Score 4**: Conservative - fewer but higher quality signals
- **Score 5**: Very strict - only strongest reversals
### 🎨 Color Settings
All colors are fully customizable:
- **POC Line**: Default Gold (#FFD700)
- **VAH Line**: Default Coral Red (#FF6B6B)
- **VAL Line**: Default Teal (#4ECDC4)
- **Bullish Reversal**: Default Green (#00E676)
- **Bearish Reversal**: Default Red (#FF5252)
---
## 📖 How to Read the Indicator
### Volume Profile Histogram
```
█████████████ ← High volume = Strong S/R
████████ ← Medium volume
████ ← Low volume = Weak S/R
██
```
- **Darker/Longer bars** = More trading activity at that price
- **Inside Value Area** = Colored based on session direction (Bull/Bear)
- **Outside Value Area** = Muted gray color
### Key Levels
| Level | Color | Meaning |
|-------|-------|---------|
| **POC** | Yellow | Price with highest volume - Strongest magnet |
| **VAH** | Red | Upper resistance - Look for bearish reversals |
| **VAL** | Teal | Lower support - Look for bullish reversals |
---
## 🔄 Reversal Detection System
### How the Scoring System Works
The indicator uses a **5-point confluence scoring system**. Each condition adds 1 point:
#### 🟢 Bullish Reversal Score (at VAL)
| Condition | Points | Description |
|-----------|--------|-------------|
| Price at VAL Zone | +1 | Price is within VAL ± 0.2 ATR |
| Bullish Candle | +1 | Close > Open (green candle) |
| RSI Oversold | +1 | RSI < 35 |
| Rejection Wick | +1 | Lower wick > 1.5× body size |
| Failed Breakdown | +1 | Touched below VAL but closed above |
#### 🔴 Bearish Reversal Score (at VAH)
| Condition | Points | Description |
|-----------|--------|-------------|
| Price at VAH Zone | +1 | Price is within VAH ± 0.2 ATR |
| Bearish Candle | +1 | Close < Open (red candle) |
| RSI Overbought | +1 | RSI > 65 |
| Rejection Wick | +1 | Upper wick > 1.5× body size |
| Failed Breakout | +1 | Touched above VAH but closed below |
### Signal Quality Ratings
| Score | Rating | Meaning |
|-------|--------|---------|
| 5/5 | ★★★ | Excellent - Highest probability |
| 4/5 | ★★ | Good - High probability |
| 3/5 | ★ | Acceptable - Moderate probability |
| <3 | - | No signal triggered |
---
## 📋 Info Table Explained
```
╔═ able-REV ═╗ 15 ████████ SCR
─────────────────────────────────────
ZONE UPPER VA ▒▒▓▓████ ▲
POC 4272.680 ██████·· ▲
VAH 4322.745 ████···· ·
VAL 4264.977 ██████·· ·
═ SCORE ═════════════════════════════
BULL 0/5 ········ ·
BEAR 1/5 ░······· ·
RSI 49 ▒▒▓▓···· ·
◄SIGNAL► WAIT ········ ·
```
| Row | Description |
|-----|-------------|
| **ZONE** | Current price position relative to Value Area |
| **POC/VAH/VAL** | Price levels with distance indicators |
| **BULL Score** | Current bullish confluence score |
| **BEAR Score** | Current bearish confluence score |
| **RSI** | RSI value with OB/OS status |
| **SIGNAL** | Current signal status (BUY/SELL/WAIT) |
### Zone Types
| Zone | Meaning | Bias |
|------|---------|------|
| ABOVE VAH | Price broke above resistance | Bullish (but watch for rejection) |
| ⚠ AT VAH | Price testing resistance | Watch for bearish reversal |
| UPPER VA | Price in upper value area | Slight bullish bias |
| LOWER VA | Price in lower value area | Slight bearish bias |
| ⚠ AT VAL | Price testing support | Watch for bullish reversal |
| BELOW VAL | Price broke below support | Bearish (but watch for rejection) |
---
## 📈 Trading Strategies
### Strategy 1: VAH Rejection (Bearish Reversal)
**Setup:**
1. Price approaches or touches VAH (red dashed line)
2. BEAR score reaches 3+ (or your minimum setting)
3. REV signal appears above the candle
**Entry:**
- Enter SHORT on signal candle close
- Or wait for confirmation candle
**Stop Loss:**
- Above the signal candle high
- Or above VAH + 0.5 ATR
**Take Profit:**
- First target: POC (yellow line)
- Second target: VAL (teal line)
---
### Strategy 2: VAL Bounce (Bullish Reversal)
**Setup:**
1. Price approaches or touches VAL (teal dashed line)
2. BULL score reaches 3+ (or your minimum setting)
3. REV signal appears below the candle
**Entry:**
- Enter LONG on signal candle close
- Or wait for confirmation candle
**Stop Loss:**
- Below the signal candle low
- Or below VAL - 0.5 ATR
**Take Profit:**
- First target: POC (yellow line)
- Second target: VAH (red line)
---
### Strategy 3: POC Bounce
**Setup:**
1. Price pulls back to POC after trending
2. POC acts as support/resistance
3. Watch for reversal candle patterns
**Entry:**
- Long if bullish candle at POC from below
- Short if bearish candle at POC from above
**Stop Loss:**
- Other side of POC ± buffer
---
## ⚠️ Important Notes
### When Signals Work Best
✅ **High Probability Setups:**
- Score 4-5 with clear rejection wick
- RSI confirms (oversold for long, overbought for short)
- First test of VAH/VAL in the session
- Clear trend before reversal
❌ **Low Probability Setups:**
- Score barely meeting minimum (3/5)
- Multiple tests of same level (level weakening)
- Low volume/choppy market
- News events pending
### Risk Management Rules
1. **Never risk more than 1-2% per trade**
2. **Always use stop loss** - place beyond the level
3. **Wait for candle close** - don't enter on wick touches
4. **Respect the cooldown** - avoid overtrading
5. **Consider the trend** - counter-trend reversals are riskier
---
## 🔔 Alerts
The indicator includes built-in alerts:
| Alert | Trigger |
|-------|---------|
| VAL Bullish Reversal | BULL score meets minimum at VAL |
| VAH Bearish Reversal | BEAR score meets minimum at VAH |
### Setting Up Alerts:
1. Right-click on the chart
2. Select "Add Alert"
3. Choose "able FRVP Reversal" as condition
4. Select desired alert type
5. Configure notification method
---
## 💡 Pro Tips
1. **Combine with trend analysis** - Reversals in trend direction are more reliable
2. **Watch for confluence with other S/R** - If VAH/VAL aligns with round numbers, previous highs/lows, or fib levels, the level is stronger
3. **Volume confirmation** - Higher volume on reversal candle = stronger signal
4. **Time of day matters** - Reversals during active trading hours are more reliable
5. **Adjust sensitivity by market** - Volatile assets may need higher Min Confluence Score
6. **Use multiple timeframes** - Check if reversal level aligns with higher timeframe levels
---
## 🔧 Recommended Settings by Trading Style
| Style | Min Confluence | Cooldown | Best For |
|-------|----------------|----------|----------|
| Scalping | 3 | 5-7 | Quick trades, more signals |
| Day Trading | 3-4 | 10-15 | Balanced approach |
| Swing Trading | 4-5 | 20+ | Fewer, higher quality signals |
---
## ❓ Troubleshooting
| Issue | Solution |
|-------|----------|
| No signals appearing | Lower Min Confluence Score or check if market is ranging |
| Too many signals | Increase Min Confluence Score or Cooldown Bars |
| Levels not showing | Enable Show POC/VAH/VAL in settings |
| Histogram too wide/narrow | Adjust Profile Width setting |
---
## 📞 Support
For questions, suggestions, or bug reports, please contact the developer.
---
**Version:** 1.0
**Last Updated:** 2024
**Platform:** TradingView (Pine Script v6)
Structure Pivot (LL-HL / HH-LH)Structure Pivot (LL-HL / HH-LH) - Indicator Guide
This indicator scans for market structure pivot patterns—specifically the bullish Higher Low (LL–HL) and the bearish Lower High (HH–LH) —across multiple lengths simultaneously.
It automatically selects the most optimal pattern based on a "Priority Mode" and plots the structure and breakout/breakdown levels on the chart.
1. Basic Calculation Method
The indicator builds upon TradingView’s ta.pivotlow and ta.pivothigh functions to identify structural points.
Bullish Structure (LL–HL)
1.LL (Lowest Low): A standard Pivot Low is identified.
2.HL (Higher Low): A subsequent Pivot Low forms higher than the previous LL. This completes the setup.
3.Pivot Line (Resistance): The indicator finds the highest price (High) that occurred between the LL and the HL. This level becomes the breakout trigger.
Bearish Structure (HH–LH)
1.HH (Highest High): A standard Pivot High is identified.
2.LH (Lower High): A subsequent Pivot High forms lower than the previous HH. This completes the setup.
3.Pivot Line (Support): The indicator finds the lowest price (Low) that occurred between the HH and the LH. This level becomes the breakdown trigger.
2. Multi-Length Scanning
Unlike standard indicators that use a single fixed length (e.g., Length = 5), this indicator scans a range of lengths simultaneously.
・Settings: Defined by Min Length and Max Length.
・Mechanism: If set to Min=2 and Max=10, the indicator internally runs 9 separate calculations (Length 2 through 10) in parallel.
This allows it to capture everything from small, short-term pullbacks to larger, significant structural pivots without manual adjustment.
3. Priority Mode System
Since multiple lengths are scanned, multiple valid patterns may appear at the same time. The Priority Mode determines which single pattern is the "winner" and gets displayed.
A. Tightest Structure (Default)
・For Bullish (Long): Selects the pattern with the lowest Pivot Line (Resistance).
・For Bearish (Short): Selects the pattern with the highest Pivot Line (Support).
・Advantage: It finds the "tightest" contraction (like a VCP). This offers the entry point closest to the stop-loss level, providing the best Risk/Reward ratio.
B. Longest Length
・Selects the pattern detected by the longest length setting.
・Advantage: Focuses on major structural points, filtering out short-term noise. Best for trend confirmation.
C. Shortest Length
・Selects the pattern detected by the shortest length setting.
・Advantage: Extremely sensitive. Best for scalping or catching immediate micro-pullbacks.
4. Real-Time Logic & Features
Structure Invalidation (Failure)
・Bullish: If the current price drops below the HL (the support of the structure), the setup is considered failed.
・Bearish: If the current price rises above the LH (the resistance of the structure), the setup is considered failed.
・Result: All lines and labels for that structure are immediately deleted to keep the chart clean.
Pivot Line Extension
・As long as the structure remains valid (price hasn't violated the HL or LH), the Pivot Line extends to the right, acting as a live reference for breakouts or breakdowns.
Alerts
・Bullish Breakout: Triggered when the Close price crosses over the Pivot Line.
・Bearish Breakdown: Triggered when the Close price crosses under the Pivot Line.
TedAlpha – Structure / FVG / OB Sessions:
Only looks for trades when price is inside your defined London or NY time blocks.
CHOCH:
Uses pivots to track swing highs/lows, then flags a bullish CHOCH when structure flips from LL/LH to HH/HL, and vice versa for bearish.
FVG:
Detects 3-candle imbalance and keeps the zone “active” for fvgLookback bars, then checks if price trades back into it.
Order Blocks:
On a CHOCH, grabs the last opposite candle (bearish before bull CHOCH = bullish OB, bullish before bear CHOCH = bearish OB) and marks its body as the OB zone.
Signal:
A valid long = bull CHOCH + in session + (price inside bullish FVG and/or bullish OB, depending on toggles).
Short is the mirror image.
RR 1:3:
SL uses the last swing low (for longs) or last swing high (for shorts), TP is auto-set at 3× that distance and plotted as lines.
FANBLASTERFANBLASTER
Methodology & Rules (Live Trading Version)
Purpose
Catch the exact moment the market flips from chop into a high-conviction trending move using a clean, stacked Fib EMA ribbon + volatility + volume confirmation.
Core Idea
When the 5-8-13-21-34-55 EMA stack suddenly “fans out” in perfect order with significant separation, a real trend is being born. Most retail traders chase late – FANBLASTER alerts you on the very first bar the fan opens.
What Triggers a “FAN BLAST” Alert
Perfect EMA Alignment
Bullish: 5 > 8 > 13 > 21 > 34 > 55
Bearish: 5 < 8 < 13 < 21 < 34 < 55
(Has to flip from NOT aligned on the previous bar → aligned on this bar)
Significant Separation
Distance between EMA 5 and EMA 55 ≥ 1.3 × ATR(14)
(1.3 is the ES sweet spot – filters fake little wiggles)
Trend Strength Confirmation
ADX(14) ≥ 22
(Ensures the move isn’t just noise; ES trends explode while ADX is still climbing)
Volume Conviction
Current volume > 1.4 × 20-period EMA of volume
(Real moves have real participation)
When ALL FOUR conditions are true on the same bar → you get the green or red circle + phone alert.
How to Trade It (Live Rules)
Alert fires → look at the chart immediately
If price is pulling back to the 8 or 13 EMA in the direction of the fan → enter on touch or close above/below
Initial stop: opposite side of the fan (below the 55 for longs, above the 55 for shorts)
Target: 2–4 R minimum, trail with the 21 or 34 once in profit
No alert = stay flat. This is a “trend birth” sniper, not a scalping tool.
Best Instruments & Timeframes (2025)
ES & NQ futures
2 min, 5 min, 15 min (all work with the exact same settings)
Works on MES/MNQ too (same params)
Bottom Line
FANBLASTER sits silent 90 % of the day and only screams when the market is actually about to run 20–100+ points.
One alert = one high-probability trend. That’s it.
Lock it, load it, and let the phone do the hunting.
Good luck, stay disciplined, and stack those points.
— Your edge is now live.
Intermarket Swing Projection [LuxAlgo]The Intermarket Swing Projection allows traders to plot price movement swings from any user-selected asset directly onto the chart in the form of zigzags and/or horizontal support and resistance levels.
This tool rescale the external asset price on the user chart, enabling traders to make direct comparisons.
It answers the question of how different the price behavior is between two assets, accounting for each asset's volatility.
🔶 USAGE
This tool is based on swing detection of two different assets: the chart and a user-selected asset. It allows traders to compare two assets on an equal footing while accounting for volatility and price behavior.
Traders can customize the detection by selecting a custom ticker, timeframe, the number of swings and length for swing detection. This makes the tool a Swiss army knife for asset comparison.
As we can see in the image below, the Show Last, Pivot Length, and Spread parameters are key to defining the final output of the tool.
"Show Last" defines how many pivots are displayed. "Pivot Length" is used for pivot detection; a larger value will detect larger market structures. "Spread" defines how far apart the horizontal levels will be from their original location in terms of volatility.
🔹 Comparing different assets
This image shows the Nasdaq 100 futures contract compared to four other futures contracts: S&P 500, gold, bitcoin, and euro/U.S. dollar.
Plotting all of these assets in Nasdaq 100 terms makes it easy to compare and analyze price behaviors and identify key levels.
In the top left chart, we have NQ vs. ES. It's no surprise that they are practically an exact match; a large portion of the S&P 500 is technology.
In the top right chart, NQ vs. GC, we see totally different behaviors. We can clearly see the summer consolidation in gold and the resumption of the uptrend, which took gold above 29,200 NQ points, up from 21,200.
In the bottom right chart, we see bitcoin making new highs, way above the Nasdaq in May, July, and October. However, the last high was way below the Nasdaq prices on October 27—the first lower high in a while. Sellers are pushing down.
Finally, the bottom left chart is NQ vs. 6E. We can see large volatility in the uptrend since February, with NQ unable to catch up until now. The last swing low was almost a match, and 6E is in a range.
As we can see, this tool allows us to perform intermarket analysis properly by accounting for each asset's volatility and price behavior. Then, we plot them on the same scale on equal terms, which makes performing this kind of analysis easy.
As we can see in the chart above, the assets are the same as in the previous image, but the timeframe is 1H with different settings.
Note the horizontal levels acting as support and resistance, as well as how NQ prices react to the zones marked with white circles. These levels are derived from custom assets selected by the user.
🔹 Displaying Elements
Zig-zag allows traders to clearly see the path that the selected asset's price took, as well as its turning points.
Horizontal levels are displayed from those turning points to the present and can be used as support or resistance. Traders can adjust the spread parameter in the settings panel to expand or contract those levels' volatility.
There are two color modes for the levels: average and pivots. In the first mode, green is used for levels below the average and red for levels above the average. The second uses green for swing lows and red for swing highs.
The backpaint feature is enabled by default and allows the swings to be displayed in the correct location. With this feature disabled, the swings will be displayed in the current location when a new swing is detected.
🔶 DETAILS
On a more technical note, the rescaling is formed by calculating three main elements from all the swings detected on the custom and chart assets:
The chart asset's average of all swing points
The chart asset's standard deviation of all swing points
The custom asset's z-score for each swing point
Then, the re-scaled swing point is calculated as the average plus the z-score multiplied by the standard deviation. This makes it possible to plot AAPL swings on an NQ chart, for example.
Thanks to re-scaling, we can directly compare the price behavior of two assets with different price ranges and volatility on the same chart.
🔶 SETTINGS
🔹 Trendlines
Ticker: Select the custom ticker.
Timeframe: Select a custom timeframe.
Show Last: Select how many swing points to display.
Pivot Length: Select the size for swing point detection.
Spread: Volatility multiplier for horizontal levels. Larger values mean the levels are farther apart.
Backpaint: Enable or disable the backpaint feature. When enabled, the drawings will be displayed where they were detected. When disabled, the drawings will be displayed at the moment of detection.
🔹 Style
Show ZigZag: Enable or disable the ZigZag display and choose a line style.
Show Levels: Enable or disable the levels display and choose a line style.
Color Mode: Choose between Average Mode, which colors all levels below the average bullish and all levels above bearish, and Pivot Mode, which colors swing highs bearish and swing lows bullish.
Bullish: Select a bullish color.
Bearish: Select a bearish color.
ZigZag: Select the ZigZag color.
Fractal MTF MA System Overview Unlock the fractal nature of the market with a single, clean indicator. This tool allows you to visualize the exact same Moving Average length (default: 50) across 5 different timeframes simultaneously. By comparing "apples to apples" across time dimensions, you get a clear, immediate view of the overall market trend and momentum health.
No more switching charts or manually adding 5 different indicators. This script does it all with a single global setting.
Key Features
🧩 Fractal Logic: Applies one consistent calculation (e.g., 50 Period) to 15m, 30m, 1H, 2H, and 4H timeframes.
🎛️ Global Control: Change the Length or MA Type once, and it instantly updates all 5 lines. No need to adjust each line individually.
🚀 3 Calculation Modes: Switch between DEMA (Double Exponential - Default/Fast), EMA (Standard), or SMA (Smooth) to fit your trading style.
🎨 Visual Clarity: Choose between Step mode (for precise MTF levels) or Line mode (for a smoother, cleaner look).
How to Use This Indicator
1. Trend Following (The Fan) When the market is trending strongly, the lines will stack in perfect order:
Bullish: Price > 15m > 30m > 1H > 2H > 4H.
Bearish: Price < 15m < 30m < 1H < 2H < 4H.
Strategy: Ride the trend as long as the "Fan" is open and orderly.
2. Mean Reversion (The Snap-Back) When the price moves too far from the anchor line (the 4H line) and the gaps between the lines become extreme, the market is "overextended" (like a stretched rubber band).
Strategy: Watch for price to stall and cross back over the fastest line (15m) as an early sign of a correction towards the slower averages.
3. Dynamic Support & Resistance During a trend, price often pulls back to test the 1H or 2H lines before continuing. These lines act as dynamic support zones.
Settings
Global Length: Sets the lookback period for ALL lines (Default: 50).
MA Type: Select DEMA, EMA, or SMA.
Line Style: Toggle between Step (precise) or Line (smooth).
Individual Toggles: You can hide specific timeframes via the settings menu if you want a cleaner chart.
Enjoy the clean charts! Feedback and likes are appreciated. 🚀
LiquidityPulse Higher Timeframe Consecutive Candle Run LevelsLiquidityPulse Higher Timeframe Consecutive Candle Run Levels
Research suggests that financial markets can alternate between trend-persistence and mean-reversion regimes, particularly at short (intraday) or very long timeframes. Extended directional moves, whether prolonged intraday rallies or sell-offs, also carry a statistically higher chance of retracing or reversing (Safari & Schmidhuber, 2025). In addition, studies examining support and resistance behaviour show that swing highs or lows formed after strong directional moves may act as structurally and psychologically important price levels, where subsequent price interactions have an increased likelihood of stalling or bouncing rather than passing through directly (Chung & Bellotti, 2021). By highlighting higher-timeframe candle runs and marking their extremal levels, this indicator aims to display areas where directional momentum previously stopped, providing contextual "watch levels" that traders may incorporate into their broader analysis.
How this information is used in the indicator:
When a sequence of consecutive higher-timeframe candles prints in the same direction, the indicator highlights the lower-timeframe chart with a green or red background, depending on whether the higher-timeframe run was bullish or bearish. The highest high (for a bull run) or lowest low (for a bear run) of that sequence forms a recent extremum, and this value is plotted as a swing-high or swing-low level. These levels appear only after the required number of consecutive higher-timeframe candles (set by the user) have closed, and they continue updating as long as the higher-timeframe streak remains intact. A level "freezes" and stops updating only when an opposite-colour higher-timeframe candle closes (e.g., a red candle ending a bull run, or a green candle ending a bear run). Once frozen, the level remains fixed to preserve that structural information for future analysis or retests. The number of past bull/bear levels displayed on the chart is also adjustable in the settings.
Why capture a level after a long directional run:
When price moves in one direction for several consecutive candles (e.g. 4, 5, or more), it reflects strong directional bias, often associated with momentum, liquidity imbalance, or liquidity grabs. Once that sequence breaks, the final level reached marks a point of exhaustion or structural resistance/support, where that bias failed to continue. These inflection points are often used by traders and trading algorithms to assess potential reversals, retests, or breakout setups. By freezing these levels once the run ends, the indicator creates a map of historically significant price zones, allowing traders to observe how price behaves around them over time.
Additional information displayed by the indicator:
Each detected run includes a label showing the run length (the number of consecutive higher-timeframe candles in the streak) along with the source timeframe used for detection. The indicator also displays an overstretch marker: this numerical value appears when the total size of the candle bodies within the run exceeds a user-defined multiple of the average higher-timeframe body size (default: 1.5x). This helps highlight runs that were unusually strong or extended relative to typical volatility. You can also enable alerts that trigger when this overstretch ratio exceeds a higher threshold.
Key Settings
Timeframe: Choose which HTF to analyse (e.g., 15m, 1h, 4h)
Minimum Candle Run Length: Define how many consecutive candles are needed to trigger a level (e.g., 4)
Overstretch Settings: Customize detection threshold and alert trigger (in multiples of average body size)
Background Tints: Enable/disable visual highlights for bull and bear runs
Display Capacity: Choose how many past bull/bear levels to show
How Traders Can Use This Indicator
Traders can:
-Watch levels for retests, reversals, breakouts, or consolidation
-Identify areas where price showed strong directional conviction
-Spot extended or aggressive moves based on overstretch detection
-Monitor how price reacts when retesting prior run levels
-Build confluence with your existing levels, zones, or indicators
Disclaimer
This tool does not reflect true order flow, liquidity, or institutional positioning. It is a visual aid that highlights specific candle behaviour patterns and does not produce predictive signals. All analysis is subject to interpretation, and past price behaviour does not imply future outcomes.
References:
Trends and Reversion in Financial Markets on Time Scales from Minutes to Decades (Sara A. Safari & Christof Schmidhuber, 2025)
Evidence and Behaviour of Support and Resistance Levels in Financial Time Series (Chung & Bellotti, 2021)
FVG Maxing - Fair Value Gaps, Equilibrium, and Candle Patterns
What this script does
This open-source indicator highlights 3-candle fair value gaps (FVGs) on the active chart timeframe, draws their midpoint ("equilibrium") line, tracks when each gap is mitigated, and optionally marks simple candle patterns (engulfing and doji) for confluence. It is intended as an educational tool to study how price interacts with imbalances.
3-candle bullish and bearish FVG zones drawn as forward-extending boxes.
Equilibrium line at 50% of each gap.
Different styling for mitigated vs unmitigated gaps.
Compact statistics panel showing how many gaps are currently active and filled.
Optional overlays for bullish/bearish engulfing patterns and doji candles.
1. FVG logic (3-candle gaps)
The script focuses on a strict 3-candle definition of a fair value gap:
Three consecutive candles with the same body direction.
The wick of candle 3 is separated from the wick of candle 1 (no overlap).
A bullish gap is created when price moves up fast enough to leave a gap between candle 1 and 3. A bearish gap is the mirror case to the downside.
In Pine, the core detection looks like this:
// Three candles with the same body direction
bull_seq = close > open and close > open and close > open
bear_seq = close < open and close < open and close < open
// Wick gap between candle 1 and candle 3
bull_gap = bull_seq and low > high
bear_gap = bear_seq and high < low
// Final FVG flags
is_bull_fvg = bull_gap
is_bear_fvg = bear_gap
For each detected FVG:
Bullish FVG range: from high up to low (gap below current price).
Bearish FVG range: from low down to high (gap above current price).
Each zone is stored in a custom FVGData structure so it can be updated when price later trades back inside it.
2. Equilibrium line (0.5 of the gap)
Every FVG box gets an optional equilibrium line plotted at the midpoint between its top and bottom:
eq_level = (top + bottom) / 2.0
right_index = extend_boxes ? bar_index + extend_length_bars : bar_index
bx = box.new(bar_index - 2, top, right_index, bottom)
eq_ln = line.new(bar_index - 2, eq_level, right_index, eq_level)
line.set_style(eq_ln, line.style_dashed)
line.set_color(eq_ln, eq_color)
You can use this line as a neutral “fair value” reference inside the zone, or as a simple way to think in terms of premium/discount within each gap.
3. Mitigation rules and styling
Each FVG stays active until price trades back into the gap:
Bullish FVG is considered mitigated when the low touches or moves below the top of the gap.
Bearish FVG is considered mitigated when the high touches or moves above the bottom of the gap.
When that happens, the script:
Marks the internal FVGData entry as mitigated.
Softens the box fill and border colors.
Optionally updates the label text from "BULL EQ / BEAR EQ" to "BULL FILLED / BEAR FILLED".
Can hide mitigated zones almost completely if you only want to see unfilled imbalances.
This allows you to distinguish between current areas of interest and zones that have already been traded through.
4. Candle pattern overlays (engulfing and doji)
For additional confluence, the script can mark simple candle patterns on top of the FVG view:
Bullish engulfing — current candle body fully wraps the previous bearish body and is larger in size.
Bearish engulfing — current candle body fully wraps the previous bullish body and is larger in size.
Doji — candles where the real body is small relative to the full range (high–low).
The detection is based on basic body and range geometry:
curr_body = math.abs(close - open)
prev_body = math.abs(close - open )
curr_range = high - low
body_ratio = curr_range > 0 ? curr_body / curr_range : 1.0
bull_engulfing = close > open and close < open and open <= close and close >= open and curr_body > prev_body
bear_engulfing = close < open and close > open and open >= close and close <= open and curr_body > prev_body
is_doji = curr_range > 0 and body_ratio <= doji_body_ratio
On the chart, they appear as:
Small triangle markers below bullish engulfing candles.
Small triangle markers above bearish engulfing candles.
Small circles above doji candles.
All three overlays are optional and can be turned on or off and recolored in the CANDLE PATTERNS group of inputs.
5. Inputs overview
The script organizes settings into clear groups:
DISPLAY SETTINGS : Show bullish/bearish FVGs, show/hide mitigated zones, box extension length, box border width, and maximum number of boxes.
EQUILIBRIUM : Toggle equilibrium lines, color, and line width.
LABELS : Enable labels, choose whether to label unmitigated and/or mitigated zones, and select label size.
BULLISH COLORS / BEARISH COLORS : Separate fill and border colors for bullish and bearish gaps.
MITIGATED STYLE : Opacity used when a gap is marked as mitigated.
STATISTICS : Toggle the on-chart FVG statistics panel.
CANDLE PATTERNS : Show engulfing patterns, show dojis, colors, and the body-to-range threshold that defines a doji.
6. Statistics panel
An optional table in the corner of the chart summarizes the current state of all tracked gaps:
Total number of FVGs still being tracked.
Number of bullish vs bearish FVGs.
Number of unfilled vs mitigated FVGs.
Simple fill rate: percentage of tracked FVGs that have been marked as mitigated.
This can help you study how a particular market tends to treat gaps over time.
7. How you might use it (examples)
These are usage ideas only, not recommendations:
Study how often your symbol mitigates gaps and where inside the zone price tends to react.
Use higher-timeframe context and then refine entries near the equilibrium line on your trading timeframe.
Combine FVG zones with basic candle patterns (engulfing/doji) as an extra visual anchor, if that fits your process.
Hope you enjoy, give your feedback in the comments!
- officialjackofalltrades
Ultimate Trend System — FINAL MASTER EDITIONUltimate Trend System — FINAL MASTER EDITION
A complete, multi‑layered trend‑detection engine designed for precision execution and clarity.
This final edition fuses trend, momentum, volatility, and filtering into one symmetrical logic system — enabling traders to instantly visualize directional strength and avoid false signals during choppy markets.
🔹 System Overview
The Ultimate Trend System consolidates several classic trading frameworks into a unified model.
It dynamically generates BUY, SELL, and STOP tags directly on the chart — each derived from clean, interlinked conditions that measure both momentum and structure.
In addition, a built‑in information panel summarizes live indicator states for quick decision‑making without checking multiple indicators.
⚙️ Core Logic Components
SMA (20‑period): Identifies trend slope; rising → bullish bias, falling → bearish bias.
VWAP: Defines fair‑value position — Above, Below, or Inside volume‑weighted average price.
QQE‑Lite (RSI): Tracks internal momentum shifts by comparing RSI to its EMA smoothing.
ATR Strength: Classifies current volatility regime as Turbo, Strong, or Weak.
SuperTrend: Confirms structural trend direction using an ATR‑based trailing model.
Choppiness Filter: Suppresses signals when short‑term volatility contracts or range noise dominates.
Fakeout Detection: Prevents false triggers after deceptive breakouts or reversals.
🧩 Execution Logic
BUY Signal: All major trend engines align bullishly, with clean structure and momentum.
SELL Signal: All major engines align bearishly, with clean structure and momentum.
STOP Phase: Appears once per cycle to mark neutral or transition zones; automatically locks further stops until a new entry signal is confirmed.
🟩🟥 Visual Elements
Green Labels: Confirmed bullish entry (BUY).
Red Labels: Confirmed bearish entry (SELL).
Yellow Labels: STOP state (trend exhaustion or consolidation).
Panel: Displays live readings for VWAP, SMA, QQE, ATR regime, and SuperTrend direction.
🧠 Design Philosophy
Built for simplicity, speed, and precision — the Final Master Edition strips away noise without losing analytical depth.
It can serve as a standalone trend system or foundation layer for more advanced frameworks like auto‑execution or multi‑engine HUDs.
One Point Global Net Liquidity The "Fuel" Behind the MarketMost traders look at price action, but price is often just a reflection of the money supply available in the system. This indicator tracks Global Net Liquidity—the actual amount of fiat currency available to flow into risk assets like Crypto and Equities.
Unlike standard "Money Supply" (M2) charts, this indicator focuses on Central Bank Balance Sheets, which is a more direct proxy for "Quantitative Easing" (QE) and "Quantitative Tightening" (QT).
How It Works (The Formula)
This script aggregates the balance sheets of the "Big 4" Central Banks, which represent ~90% of global liquidity. It automatically converts all values to USD Trillions for a standardized view.
{Global Liquidity} = {US Net Liquidity} + {ECB} + {PBoC} + {BoJ}
1. US Net Liquidity (The "Trader's" Formula) We do not just use the Fed's Total Assets. We subtract the money that is "stuck" outside the private economy:
(+) Fed Balance Sheet: Total Assets.
(-) TGA (Treasury General Account): The government's checking account. When this goes up, liquidity is drained from markets.
(-) RRP (Reverse Repo): Money parked by banks at the Fed overnight. When this goes up, liquidity is removed from the system.
2. Global Additions
ECB (Eurozone): Converted to USD.
PBoC (China): Converted to USD.
BoJ (Japan): Converted to USD.
How to Use This Indicator This indicator is designed as an Overlay on the main chart (using the Left Scale).
Correlation: Generally, when the Orange Line (Liquidity) trends up, Bitcoin and the S&P 500 trend up. When Central Banks tighten (line down), risk assets struggle.
The "Divergence" Signal (Alpha):
Bullish: If Price makes a Lower Low but Liquidity makes a Higher Low, it often signals seller exhaustion and a potential bottom.
Bearish: If Price makes a New High but Liquidity fails to follow (or drops), the rally may be unsupported and prone to a reversal.
Settings
Scale: This indicator is pinned to the Scale Left to allow it to overlay price action without distortion.
Data: Uses daily data from ECONOMICS and FRED feeds.
Options Scalper v2 - SPY/QQQHere's a comprehensive description of the Options Scalper v2 strategy:
---
## Options Scalper v2 - SPY/QQQ
### Overview
A multi-indicator confluence-based scalping strategy designed for trading SPY and QQQ options on short timeframes (1-5 minute charts). The strategy uses a scoring system to generate high-probability CALL and PUT signals by requiring alignment across multiple technical indicators before triggering entries.
---
### Core Logic
The strategy operates on a **scoring system (0-9 points)** where both bullish (CALL) and bearish (PUT) conditions are evaluated independently. A signal only fires when:
1. A recent EMA crossover occurred (within the last 3 bars)
2. The direction's score meets the minimum threshold (default: 4 points)
3. The signal's score is higher than the opposite direction
4. Enough bars have passed since the last signal (cooldown period)
5. Price action occurs during valid trading sessions
---
### Indicators Used
| Indicator | Purpose | CALL Condition | PUT Condition |
|-----------|---------|----------------|---------------|
| **9/21 EMA Cross** | Primary trigger | Fast EMA crosses above slow | Fast EMA crosses below slow |
| **200 EMA** | Trend filter | Price above 200 EMA | Price below 200 EMA |
| **RSI (14)** | Momentum filter | RSI between 45-65 | RSI between 35-55 |
| **VWAP** | Institutional level | Price above VWAP | Price below VWAP |
| **MACD (12,26,9)** | Momentum confirmation | MACD line > Signal line | MACD line < Signal line |
| **Stochastic (14,3)** | Overbought/Oversold | Oversold or K > D | Overbought or K < D |
| **Volume** | Participation confirmation | Spike on green candle | Spike on red candle |
| **Price Structure** | Breakout detection | Higher high formed | Lower low formed |
---
### Scoring Breakdown
**CALL Score (Max 9 points):**
- Recent EMA cross up: +2 pts
- EMA alignment (fast > slow): +1 pt
- RSI in bullish range: +1 pt
- Above VWAP: +1 pt
- MACD bullish: +1 pt
- Volume spike on green candle: +1 pt
- Stochastic setup: +1 pt
- Above 200 EMA: +1 pt
- Breaking higher high: +1 pt
**PUT Score (Max 9 points):**
- Recent EMA cross down: +2 pts
- EMA alignment (fast < slow): +1 pt
- RSI in bearish range: +1 pt
- Below VWAP: +1 pt
- MACD bearish: +1 pt
- Volume spike on red candle: +1 pt
- Stochastic setup: +1 pt
- Below 200 EMA: +1 pt
- Breaking lower low: +1 pt
---
### Risk Management
The strategy uses **ATR-based dynamic stops and targets**:
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Stop Loss | 1.5x ATR | Distance below entry for longs, above for shorts |
| Take Profit | 2.0x ATR | Creates a 1:1.33 risk-reward ratio |
Positions are also closed on:
- Opposite direction signal (flip trade)
- Take profit or stop loss hit
---
### Session Filtering
Trades are restricted to high-liquidity periods by default:
- **Morning Session:** 9:30 AM - 11:00 AM EST
- **Afternoon Session:** 2:30 PM - 3:55 PM EST
This avoids choppy midday price action and captures the highest volume periods.
---
### Input Parameters
| Parameter | Default | Description |
|-----------|---------|-------------|
| Fast EMA | 9 | Fast moving average period |
| Slow EMA | 21 | Slow moving average period |
| Trend EMA | 200 | Long-term trend filter |
| RSI Length | 14 | RSI calculation period |
| RSI Overbought | 65 | Upper RSI threshold |
| RSI Oversold | 35 | Lower RSI threshold |
| Volume Multiplier | 1.2x | Volume spike detection threshold |
| Min Signal Strength | 4 | Minimum score required to trigger |
| Crossover Lookback | 3 | Bars to consider crossover "recent" |
| Min Bars Between Signals | 5 | Cooldown period between signals |
---
### Visual Elements
**Chart Plots:**
- Green line: 9 EMA (fast)
- Red line: 21 EMA (slow)
- Gray line: 200 EMA (trend)
- Purple dots: VWAP
**Signal Markers:**
- Green triangle up + "CALL" label: Buy call signal
- Red triangle down + "PUT" label: Buy put signal
- Small circles: EMA crossover reference points
**Info Table (Top Right):**
- Real-time CALL and PUT scores
- RSI, MACD, Stochastic values
- VWAP and 200 EMA position
- Recent crossover status
- Current signal state
---
### Alerts
| Alert Name | Trigger |
|------------|---------|
| CALL Entry | Standard call signal fires |
| PUT Entry | Standard put signal fires |
| Strong CALL | Call signal with score ≥ 6 |
| Strong PUT | Put signal with score ≥ 6 |
---
### Recommended Usage
| Setting | 0DTE Scalping | Intraday Swings |
|---------|---------------|-----------------|
| Timeframe | 1-2 min | 5 min |
| Min Signal Strength | 5-6 | 4 |
| ATR Stop Mult | 1.0 | 1.5 |
| ATR TP Mult | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Option Delta | 0.40-0.50 | 0.30-0.40 |
---
### Key Improvements Over v1
1. **Requires actual crossover** - Eliminates false signals from simple trend continuation
2. **Balanced scoring** - Both directions evaluated equally, highest score wins
3. **Signal cooldown** - Prevents overtrading with minimum bar spacing
4. **Multi-indicator confluence** - 8 factors must align for signal generation
5. **Volume-candle alignment** - Volume spikes only count when matching candle direction
---
### Disclaimer
This strategy is for educational purposes. Backtest thoroughly before live trading. Options trading involves significant risk of loss. Past performance does not guarantee future results.
