GKD-C Loxx Volty Bands [Loxx]Giga Kaleidoscope Loxx Volty Bands is a Confirmation module included in Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System".
█ Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System
What is Loxx's "Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System"?
The Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System is a trading system built on the philosophy of the NNFX (No Nonsense Forex) algorithmic trading.
What is an NNFX algorithmic trading strategy?
The NNFX algorithm is built on the principles of trend, momentum, and volatility. There are six core components in the NNFX trading algorithm:
1. Volatility - price volatility; e.g., Average True Range, True Range Double, Close-to-Close, etc.
2. Baseline - a moving average to identify price trend
3. Confirmation 1 - a technical indicator used to identify trends.
4. Confirmation 2 - a technical indicator used to identify trends.
5. Continuation - a technical indicator used to identify trends.
6. Volatility/Volume - a technical indicator used to identify volatility/volume breakouts/breakdown.
7. Exit - a technical indicator used to determine when a trend is exhausted.
How does Loxx's GKD (Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System) implement the NNFX algorithm outlined above?
Loxx's GKD v1.0 system has five types of modules (indicators/strategies). These modules are:
1. GKD-BT - Backtesting module (Volatility, Number 1 in the NNFX algorithm)
2. GKD-B - Baseline module (Baseline and Volatility/Volume, Numbers 1 and 2 in the NNFX algorithm)
3. GKD-C - Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation module (Confirmation 1/2 and Continuation, Numbers 3, 4, and 5 in the NNFX algorithm)
4. GKD-V - Volatility/Volume module (Confirmation 1/2, Number 6 in the NNFX algorithm)
5. GKD-E - Exit module (Exit, Number 7 in the NNFX algorithm)
(additional module types will added in future releases)
Each module interacts with every module by passing data between modules. Data is passed between each module as described below:
GKD-B => GKD-V => GKD-C(1) => GKD-C(2) => GKD-C(Continuation) => GKD-E => GKD-BT
That is, the Baseline indicator passes its data to Volatility/Volume. The Volatility/Volume indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 1 indicator. The Confirmation 1 indicator passes its values to the Confirmation 2 indicator. The Confirmation 2 indicator passes its values to the Continuation indicator. The Continuation indicator passes its values to the Exit indicator, and finally, the Exit indicator passes its values to the Backtest strategy.
This chaining of indicators requires that each module conform to Loxx's GKD protocol, therefore allowing for the testing of every possible combination of technical indicators that make up the six components of the NNFX algorithm.
What does the application of the GKD trading system look like?
Example trading system:
Backtest: Strategy with 1-3 take profits, trailing stop loss, multiple types of PnL volatility, and 2 backtesting styles
Baseline: Hull Moving Average as shown on the chart above
Volatility/Volume: Volatility Ratio as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 1: Loxx Volty Bands as shown on the chart above
Confirmation 2: Williams Percent Range
Continuation: Fisher Transform
Exit: Rex Oscillator
Each GKD indicator is denoted with a module identifier of either: GKD-BT, GKD-B, GKD-C, GKD-V, or GKD-E. This allows traders to understand to which module each indicator belongs and where each indicator fits into the GKD protocol chain.
Giga Kaleidoscope Modularized Trading System Signals (based on the NNFX algorithm)
Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 Signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Continuation Entry
1. Standard Entry, Baseline Entry, or Pullback; entry triggered previously
2. GKD-B Baseline hasn't crossed since entry signal trigger
3. GKD-C Confirmation Continuation Indicator signals
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
5. GKD-B Baseline agrees
6. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
1-Candle Rule Standard Entry
1. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume agrees
1-Candle Rule Baseline Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
4. GKD-C Confirmation 1 signal was less than 7 candles prior
Next Candle:
1. Price retraced (Long: close < close or Short: close > close )
2. GKD-B Baseline agrees
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
PullBack Entry
1. GKD-B Baseline signal
2. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
3. Price is beyond 1.0x Volatility of Baseline
Next Candle:
1. Price is within a range of 0.2x Volatility and 1.0x Volatility of the Goldie Locks Mean
3. GKD-C Confirmation 1 agrees
4. GKD-C Confirmation 2 agrees
5. GKD-V Volatility/Volume Agrees
█ Loxx Volty Bands
What is Loxx Volty Bands?
Loxx Volty Bands uses an adaptive EMA, Kalman Filter, and Kauffman adaptive filter to calculate volatility. While this indicator would normally contain "bands", this one doesn't since the bands aren't used to create the output signals.
Requirements
Inputs
Confirmation 1 and Solo Confirmation: GKD-V Volatility / Volume indicator
Confirmation 2: GKD-C Confirmation indicator
Outputs
Confirmation 2 and Solo Confirmation: GKD-E Exit indicator
Confirmation 1: GKD-C Confirmation indicator
Continuation: GKD-E Exit indicator
Additional features will be added in future releases.
Buscar en scripts para "Volatility"
ATR - Average True Range + Dynamic Trend w/ Signals | by Octopu$↕ ATR - Average True Range + Dynamic Trend w/ Signals | by Octopu$
What is ATR?
ATR stands for Average True Range
A Technical Analysis Indicator that measures market volatility by decomposing the range of a Security Price in a specific period.
The ATR can be used as a High Low Spectrum,
As well as a variation of a Moving Average, considering the ranges on a timeframe, generally this being 14 days.
Shorter periods can be used (will generate more signals) or longer periods for steadier trends (for fewer signals)
A ticker on a high volatility has a high ATR.
A ticker on a low volatility has a low ATR.
It is an useful resource for a trading system:
Can be used to enter or exit trades and/or also measure the daily spectrum of a stock.
Does not necessarily points price direction, but takes into account gaps and strong legs.
Can also be used as trading positions confirmation,
Rather be it for stop losses or take profits,
As well as setting trailing stops or limit orders.
This tool offers a great Risk to Reward Ratio, considering the fact you will be aware of the possible moves that an asset can perform.
This indicator should not be used as a standalone tool.
(The combination of factors relies on your own knowledge about Confluence Factors along with your Due Diligence)
This indicator is not an advice to buy or sell securities.
www.tradingview.com
SPY
ANY Ticker. ANY Timeframe.
(Used SPY 5m as Example only)
Features:
• ATR ( Average True Range )
• Range UP and DOWN
• Movement from Price Line
• Dynamic ATR
• Cross/Test Signals
• Live and Last Close
Options:
• Specific Factors Setup
• Length Customization
• Toggle On/Off
• Color PIcker
• Styling Options
Notes:
v1.0
Indicator release.
Changes and updates can come in the future for additional functionalities or per requests. Follow and Stay Tuned!
Did you like it? Please Support and Shoot me a message! I'd appreciate if you dropped by to say thanks! Thank you.
- Octopu$
🐙
TradeChartist Volatizer™TradeChartist Volatizer (Volatility Visualizer) is an exceptionally well designed script that helps visualize Price Volatility and Momentum with the help of various Visual components including Volatizer Bands and Mean line, Support/Resistance levels, Trade Signals and much more. Volatizer's ability to filter trades based on Volatizer Bands, initial Support/Resistance breach, along with the use of External Filter makes it an extremely functional and a useful indicator in addition to its visually engaging design.
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™𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲𝗖𝗵𝗮𝗿𝘁𝗶𝘀𝘁 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗨𝘀𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗮𝗻𝘂𝗮𝗹
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𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗕𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀
Volatizer Bands comprises of an Upper Band, a Lower Band and a Mean line, that form the important components of this script. These bands are based on consolidation of various factors including comparison of volatility and Higher Time Frame (HTF) Momentum with that of the chart time frame. This helps visualize relative Volatility of the chart's price action in relation to the bands and the mean line. The width and the acceleration of the bands depend upon two of the only user inputs required in this script. They are
Volatizer Length - This is the lookback length required to plot the strength of the price action. This length also determines the Volatizer Levels and Fills that help visualize Volatility and Momentum of the asset observed/traded. Higher the length, longer the trend and higher the Risk:Reward ratio
Sensitivity - Users can choose one of 3 Sensitivity options ( Low , Optimal , High ) to adjust the degree of sensitivity of the Bands' reaction to the price action. High Sensitivity Bands react quicker to the price action based on underlying logic.
Example : 1hr chart of BINANCE:ETHUSDT using 24/High on the left and 24/Low on the right.
𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗠𝗲𝗮𝗻
Volatizer mean is a critical component of the Bands as it can determine the nature of the price action based on how the price tests the Volatizer Mean. When the price is extremely volatile or trending and when it is influenced by Bull or Bear momentum, the Mean line can be the magnet for Pull Backs or Throw Backs. Mean Touch Points can be enabled or disabled from the settings.
Example - 1hr chart of BINANCE:ETHUSDT clearly showing the use of the Mean line and Orange Mean Touch Points.
Example - 1hr chart of BINANCE:ETHUSDT with Volatizer Levels/Fills enabled on the left and disabled on the right.
𝗜𝗻𝗶𝘁𝗶𝗮𝗹 𝗦𝘂𝗽𝗽𝗼𝗿𝘁/𝗥𝗲𝘀𝗶𝘀𝘁𝗮𝗻𝗰𝗲 𝗟𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘀
Volatizer plots automatic Initial Support/Resistance Levels when this option is enabled. This is based on the user input of Length and Sensitivity.
Example - 1hr chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT with Initial Support/Resistance Levels enabled. Initial range for support/resistance is shown on the chart.
𝗣𝗿𝗼𝗳𝗶𝘁 𝗧𝗮𝗸𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗭𝗼𝗻𝗲𝘀
Volatizer uses a clever logic that helps detect volatility exhaustion prices and plots $ signs to help the trader take profits or move stop loss levels to secure gains or to exit trade position. This option can be enabled or disabled by checking or unchecking Display Profit Taking Zones . These zones can also be important support/resistance zones based on the trend volatility and momentum.
Example - 1hr chart of BINANCE:BTCUSDT (Setting - 24/Low) showing $ signs to help traders. (Green $ for Bull Zones and Red $ for Bear Zones)
𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗦𝗶𝗴𝗻𝗮𝗹𝘀 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗧𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲 𝗙𝗶𝗹𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀
The script can also be used to plot Trade Signals automatically with or without the use of Trade Filters. When the price shows bullish or bearish momentum when the price crosses above or below the mean, Bull or Bear plot appears on the chart to signal potential trend change. These signals can be filtered using one, two or all three filters listed below.
Filter Initial S/R Level Breakouts - Plots Signals only when the initial Support/Resistance levels get breached.
Filter using Volatizer Bands - Plots Signals only when the Upper/Lower bands get breached.
External Filter - Plots Signals only if crossover/breakout criteria of External Filter (Oscillatory or Non-Oscillatory Signal) is satisfied.
Example Charts for Trade Signals/ Filters using 1hr chart of NASDAQ:AMD (Setting - 24/Optimal)
1. Trade Signals without any filter
2. Trade Signals using Initial S/R Level Breakout Filter only
3. Trade Signals using Volatizer Bands Filter only
4. Trade Signals using External Filter - MDO (144) with 0 Filter values along with other 2 built in filters
𝗔𝗹𝗲𝗿𝘁𝘀
Alerts can be created using Trading View's Alert Creation box by choosing one of the following Volatizer Conditions.
Long - Alerts when Bull signal is generated. Use Once Per Bar Close
Long Take Profit - Alerts when $ signs are plotted during Bull Zone. Use Once Per Bar
Short - Alerts when Bear signal is generated. Use Once Per Bar Close
Short Take Profit - Alerts when $ signs are plotted during Bear Zone. Use Once Per Bar
Test of Mean - Alerts when price tests the Volatizer Mean line. Use Once Per Bar
Note: The indicator doesn't repaint even though a potential repaint warning appears when creating alerts. This can be confirmed by doing bar replay with vertical lines at various lines and trend change zones to get confidence using the indicator. The vertical lines will stay in the same place on both current time and when running a bar replay.
𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗩𝗶𝘀𝘂𝗮𝗹𝘀
Visual settings like Colour scheme, Colour Bars, Fill Transparency and Initial Support/Resistance Linewidth can be adjusted/changed from the settings under Volatizer Visuals section.
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗩𝗼𝗹𝗮𝘁𝗶𝘇𝗲𝗿 𝗟𝗲𝗻𝗴𝘁𝗵 𝗮𝗻𝗱 𝗦𝗲𝗻𝘀𝗶𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗶𝘁𝘆 𝗲𝗳𝗳𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗶𝘃𝗲𝗹𝘆
1. As mentioned in the manual above, higher the length, longer the trend and higher the Risk:Reward ratio.
2. Sensitivity affects the frequency of the signals in general. Low Sensitivity will generate less frequent signals and High Sensitivity will generate more frequent signals as the Sensitivity affects how quickly the Bands react to the price action.
3. As a rule of thumb, it is recommended to use relevant numbers that seem to work well as Volatizer Length. These can be Fibonacci numbers like 5, 8 , 13, 21, 34, 55, 89, 144 etc. These can also be chart timeframe multipliers that relate to Higher Time Frame (HTF). For example, using 24 on 1hr chart will help see Volatizer Bands based on Daily volatility and momentum, 72 on 15m chart for 4hr trend and so on.
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There are several combinations of settings that can be tested on the asset traded based on timeframe and risk/reward expectations. The indicator can be used for trade entries with filter combinations or can be used as standalone Visualizer for trend confirmations, levels etc.
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Best Practice: Test with different settings first using Paper Trades before trading with real money
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Risk Management: Position Size & Risk RewardHere is a Risk Management Indicator that calculates stop loss and position sizing based on the volatility of the stock. Most traders use a basic 1 or 2% Risk Rule, where they will not risk more than 1 or 2% of their capital on any one trade. I went further and applied four levels of risk: 0.25%, 0.50%, 1% and 2%. How you apply these different levels of risk is what makes this indicator extremely useful. Here are some common ways to apply this script:
• If the stock is extremely volatile and has a better than 50% chance of hitting the stop loss, then risk only 0.25% of your capital on that trade.
• If a stock has low volatility and has less than 20% change of hitting the stop loss, then risk 2% of your capital on that trade.
• Risking anywhere between 0.25% and 2% is purely based on your intuition and assessment of the market.
• If you are on a losing streak and you want to cut back on your position sizing, then lowering the Risk % can help you weather the storm.
• If you are on a winning streak and your entries are experiencing a higher level of success, then gradually increase the Risk % to reap bigger profits.
• If you want to trade outside the noise of the market or take on more noise/risk, you can adjust the ATR Factor.
• … and whatever else you can imagine using it to benefit your trading.
The position size is calculated using the Capital and Risk % fields, which is the percentage of your total trading capital (a.k.a net liquidity or Capital at Risk). If you instead want to calculate the position size based on a specific amount of money, then enter the amount in the Custom Risk Amt input box. Any amount greater than 0 in the Custom Risk Amt field will override the values in the Capital and Risk % fields.
The stop loss is calculated by using the ATR. The default setting is the 14 RMA, but you can change the length and smoothing of the true range moving average to your liking. Selecting a different length and smoothing affects the stop loss and position size, so choose these values very carefully.
The ATR Factor is a multiplier of the ATR. The ATR Factor can be used to adjust the stop loss and move it outside of the market noise. For the more volatile stock, increase the factor to lower the stop loss and reduce the chance of getting stopped out. For stocks with less volatility , you can lower the factor to raise the stop loss and increase position size. Adjusting the ATR Factor can also be useful when you want the stop loss to be at or below key levels of support.
The Market Session is the hours the market is open. The Market Session only affects the Opening Range Breakout (ORB) option, so it’s important to change these values if you’re trading the ORB and you’re outside of Eastern Standard Time or you’re trading in a foreign exchange.
The ORB is a bonus to the script. When enabled, the indicator will only appear in the first green candle of the day (09:30:00 or 09:30 AM EST or the start time specified in Market Session). When using the ORB, the stop loss is based on the spread of the first candle at the Open. The spread is the difference between the High and Low of the green candle. On 1-day or higher timeframes, the indicator will be the spread of the last (or current) candle.
The output of the indicator is a label overlaying the chart:
1. ATR (14 RMA x2) – This indicated that the stop loss is determined by the ATR. The x2 is the ATR Factor. If ORB is selected, then the first line will show SPREAD, instead of ATR.
2. Capital – This is your total capital or capital at risk.
3. Risk X% of Capital – The amount you’re risking on a % of the Capital. If a Custom Risk Amt is entered, then Risk Amount will be shown in place of Capital and Risk % of Capital.
4. Entry – The current price.
5. Stop Loss – The stop loss price.
6. -1R – The stop loss price and the amount that will be lost of the stop loss is hit.
7. – These are the target prices, or levels where you will want to take profit.
This script is primarily meant for people who are new to active trading and who are looking for a sound risk management strategy based on market volatility . This script can also be used by the more experienced trader who is using a similar system, but also wants to see it applied as an indicator on TradingView. I’m looking forward to maintaining this script and making it better in future revisions. If you want to include or change anything you believe will be a good change or feature, then please contact me in TradingView.
ATR Position Size Calc+Stop guessing your position size. This indicator automatically calculates the optimal number of contracts or shares for each trade.
It is designed for one purpose: to help you maintain consistent risk management by adjusting your trade size based on current market volatility (ATR) and your fixed monetary risk.
// KEY FEATURES
Consistent Risk : Set your max risk in dollars (e.g., $300), and the script calculates the exact position size to match it.
Volatility-Based Stops : Uses the ATR to define a logical stop loss that adapts to market conditions.
Stable Calculation : The calculation is based on the previous closed candle, so the value is reliable and doesn't change intra-bar.
// HOW TO USE
In the settings, simply define your max risk per trade ($) and your ATR parameters. The indicator does the rest.
The essential tool for disciplined trading.
Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster [BackQuant]Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster
Plain-English overview
This tool projects a cone of plausible future prices by combining two ideas that traders already use intuitively: seasonality and uncertainty. It watches how your market typically behaves around this calendar date, turns that seasonal tendency into a small daily “drift,” then runs many randomized price paths forward to estimate where price could land tomorrow, next week, or a month from now. The result is a probability cone with a clear expected path, plus optional overlays that show how past years tended to move from this point on the calendar. It is a planning tool, not a crystal ball: the goal is to quantify ranges and odds so you can size, place stops, set targets, and time entries with more realism.
What Monte Carlo is and why quants rely on it
• Definition . Monte Carlo simulation is a way to answer “what might happen next?” when there is randomness in the system. Instead of producing a single forecast, it generates thousands of alternate futures by repeatedly sampling random shocks and adding them to a model of how prices evolve.
• Why it is used . Markets are noisy. A single point forecast hides risk. Monte Carlo gives a distribution of outcomes so you can reason in probabilities: the median path, the 68% band, the 95% band, tail risks, and the chance of hitting a specific level within a horizon.
• Core strengths in quant finance .
– Path-dependent questions : “What is the probability we touch a stop before a target?” “What is the expected drawdown on the way to my objective?”
– Pricing and risk : Useful for path-dependent options, Value-at-Risk (VaR), expected shortfall (CVaR), stress paths, and scenario analysis when closed-form formulas are unrealistic.
– Planning under uncertainty : Portfolio construction and rebalancing rules can be tested against a cloud of plausible futures rather than a single guess.
• Why it fits trading workflows . It turns gut feel like “seasonality is supportive here” into quantitative ranges: “median path suggests +X% with a 68% band of ±Y%; stop at Z has only ~16% odds of being tagged in N days.”
How this indicator builds its probability cone
1) Seasonal pattern discovery
The script builds two day-of-year maps as new data arrives:
• A return map where each calendar day stores an exponentially smoothed average of that day’s log return (yesterday→today). The smoothing (90% old, 10% new) behaves like an EWMA, letting older seasons matter while adapting to new information.
• A volatility map that tracks the typical absolute return for the same calendar day.
It calculates the day-of-year carefully (with leap-year adjustment) and indexes into a 365-slot seasonal array so “March 18” is compared with past March 18ths. This becomes the seasonal bias that gently nudges simulations up or down on each forecast day.
2) Choice of randomness engine
You can pick how the future shocks are generated:
• Daily mode uses a Gaussian draw with the seasonal bias as the mean and a volatility that comes from realized returns, scaled down to avoid over-fitting. It relies on the Box–Muller transform internally to turn two uniform random numbers into one normal shock.
• Weekly mode uses bootstrap sampling from the seasonal return history (resampling actual historical daily drifts and then blending in a fraction of the seasonal bias). Bootstrapping is robust when the empirical distribution has asymmetry or fatter tails than a normal distribution.
Both modes seed their random draws deterministically per path and day, which makes plots reproducible bar-to-bar and avoids flickering bands.
3) Volatility scaling to current conditions
Markets do not always live in average volatility. The engine computes a simple volatility factor from ATR(20)/price and scales the simulated shocks up or down within sensible bounds (clamped between 0.5× and 2.0×). When the current regime is quiet, the cone narrows; when ranges expand, the cone widens. This prevents the classic mistake of projecting calm markets into a storm or vice versa.
4) Many futures, summarized by percentiles
The model generates a matrix of price paths (capped at 100 runs for performance inside TradingView), each path stepping forward for your selected horizon. For each forecast day it sorts the simulated prices and pulls key percentiles:
• 5th and 95th → approximate 95% band (outer cone).
• 16th and 84th → approximate 68% band (inner cone).
• 50th → the median or “expected path.”
These are drawn as polylines so you can immediately see central tendency and dispersion.
5) A historical overlay (optional)
Turn on the overlay to sketch a dotted path of what a purely seasonal projection would look like for the next ~30 days using only the return map, no randomness. This is not a forecast; it is a visual reminder of the seasonal drift you are biasing toward.
Inputs you control and how to think about them
Monte Carlo Simulation
• Price Series for Calculation . The source series, typically close.
• Enable Probability Forecasts . Master switch for simulation and drawing.
• Simulation Iterations . Requested number of paths to run. Internally capped at 100 to protect performance, which is generally enough to estimate the percentiles for a trading chart. If you need ultra-smooth bands, shorten the horizon.
• Forecast Days Ahead . The length of the cone. Longer horizons dilute seasonal signal and widen uncertainty.
• Probability Bands . Draw all bands, just 95%, just 68%, or a custom level (display logic remains 68/95 internally; the custom number is for labeling and color choice).
• Pattern Resolution . Daily leans on day-of-year effects like “turn-of-month” or holiday patterns. Weekly biases toward day-of-week tendencies and bootstraps from history.
• Volatility Scaling . On by default so the cone respects today’s range context.
Plotting & UI
• Probability Cone . Plots the outer and inner percentile envelopes.
• Expected Path . Plots the median line through the cone.
• Historical Overlay . Dotted seasonal-only projection for context.
• Band Transparency/Colors . Customize primary (outer) and secondary (inner) band colors and the mean path color. Use higher transparency for cleaner charts.
What appears on your chart
• A cone starting at the most recent bar, fanning outward. The outer lines are the ~95% band; the inner lines are the ~68% band.
• A median path (default blue) running through the center of the cone.
• An info panel on the final historical bar that summarizes simulation count, forecast days, number of seasonal patterns learned, the current day-of-year, expected percentage return to the median, and the approximate 95% half-range in percent.
• Optional historical seasonal path drawn as dotted segments for the next 30 bars.
How to use it in trading
1) Position sizing and stop logic
The cone translates “volatility plus seasonality” into distances.
• Put stops outside the inner band if you want only ~16% odds of a stop-out due to noise before your thesis can play.
• Size positions so that a test of the inner band is survivable and a test of the outer band is rare but acceptable.
• If your target sits inside the 68% band at your horizon, the payoff is likely modest; outside the 68% but inside the 95% can justify “one-good-push” trades; beyond the 95% band is a low-probability flyer—consider scaling plans or optionality.
2) Entry timing with seasonal bias
When the median path slopes up from this calendar date and the cone is relatively narrow, a pullback toward the lower inner band can be a high-quality entry with a tight invalidation. If the median slopes down, fade rallies toward the upper band or step aside if it clashes with your system.
3) Target selection
Project your time horizon to N bars ahead, then pick targets around the median or the opposite inner band depending on your style. You can also anchor dynamic take-profits to the moving median as new bars arrive.
4) Scenario planning & “what-ifs”
Before events, glance at the cone: if the 95% band already spans a huge range, trade smaller, expect whips, and avoid placing stops at obvious band edges. If the cone is unusually tight, consider breakout tactics and be ready to add if volatility expands beyond the inner band with follow-through.
5) Options and vol tactics
• When the cone is tight : Prefer long gamma structures (debit spreads) only if you expect a regime shift; otherwise premium selling may dominate.
• When the cone is wide : Debit structures benefit from range; credit spreads need wider wings or smaller size. Align with your separate IV metrics.
Reading the probability cone like a pro
• Cone slope = seasonal drift. Upward slope means the calendar has historically favored positive drift from this date, downward slope the opposite.
• Cone width = regime volatility. A widening fan tells you that uncertainty grows fast; a narrow cone says the market typically stays contained.
• Mean vs. price gap . If spot trades well above the median path and the upper band, mean-reversion risk is high. If spot presses the lower inner band in an up-sloping cone, you are in the “buy fear” zone.
• Touches and pierces . Touching the inner band is common noise; piercing it with momentum signals potential regime change; the outer band should be rare and often brings snap-backs unless there is a structural catalyst.
Methodological notes (what the code actually does)
• Log returns are used for additivity and better statistical behavior: sim_ret is applied via exp(sim_ret) to evolve price.
• Seasonal arrays are updated online with EWMA (90/10) so the model keeps learning as each bar arrives.
• Leap years are handled; indexing still normalizes into a 365-slot map so the seasonal pattern remains stable.
• Gaussian engine (Daily mode) centers shocks on the seasonal bias with a conservative standard deviation.
• Bootstrap engine (Weekly mode) resamples from observed seasonal returns and adds a fraction of the bias, which captures skew and fat tails better.
• Volatility adjustment multiplies each daily shock by a factor derived from ATR(20)/price, clamped between 0.5 and 2.0 to avoid extreme cones.
• Performance guardrails : simulations are capped at 100 paths; the probability cone uses polylines (no heavy fills) and only draws on the last confirmed bar to keep charts responsive.
• Prerequisite data : at least ~30 seasonal entries are required before the model will draw a cone; otherwise it waits for more history.
Strengths and limitations
• Strengths :
– Probabilistic thinking replaces single-point guessing.
– Seasonality adds a small but meaningful directional bias that many markets exhibit.
– Volatility scaling adapts to the current regime so the cone stays realistic.
• Limitations :
– Seasonality can break around structural changes, policy shifts, or one-off events.
– The number of paths is performance-limited; percentile estimates are good for trading, not for academic precision.
– The model assumes tomorrow’s randomness resembles recent randomness; if regime shifts violently, the cone will lag until the EWMA adapts.
– Holidays and missing sessions can thin the seasonal sample for some assets; be cautious with very short histories.
Tuning guide
• Horizon : 10–20 bars for tactical trades; 30+ for swing planning when you care more about broad ranges than precise targets.
• Iterations : The default 100 is enough for stable 5/16/50/84/95 percentiles. If you crave smoother lines, shorten the horizon or run on higher timeframes.
• Daily vs. Weekly : Daily for equities and crypto where month-end and turn-of-month effects matter; Weekly for futures and FX where day-of-week behavior is strong.
• Volatility scaling : Keep it on. Turn off only when you intentionally want a “pure seasonality” cone unaffected by current turbulence.
Workflow examples
• Swing continuation : Cone slopes up, price pulls into the lower inner band, your system fires. Enter near the band, stop just outside the outer line for the next 3–5 bars, target near the median or the opposite inner band.
• Fade extremes : Cone is flat or down, price gaps to the upper outer band on news, then stalls. Favor mean-reversion toward the median, size small if volatility scaling is elevated.
• Event play : Before CPI or earnings on a proxy index, check cone width. If the inner band is already wide, cut size or prefer options structures that benefit from range.
Good habits
• Pair the cone with your entry engine (breakout, pullback, order flow). Let Monte Carlo do range math; let your system do signal quality.
• Do not anchor blindly to the median; recalc after each bar. When the cone’s slope flips or width jumps, the plan should adapt.
• Validate seasonality for your symbol and timeframe; not every market has strong calendar effects.
Summary
The Seasonality Monte Carlo Forecaster wraps institutional risk planning into a single overlay: a data-driven seasonal drift, realistic volatility scaling, and a probabilistic cone that answers “where could we be, with what odds?” within your trading horizon. Use it to place stops where randomness is less likely to take you out, to set targets aligned with realistic travel, and to size positions with confidence born from distributions rather than hunches. It will not predict the future, but it will keep your decisions anchored to probabilities—the language markets actually speak.
Sudden MOVE Spikes Buy SignalThis Pine Script indicator, titled "Sudden MOVE Spikes Buy Signal", is designed for TradingView charts to identify potential buy opportunities in risk assets (e.g., BTC, stocks, or any charted symbol) based on spikes in the MOVE index (a measure of U.S. Treasury bond volatility, often called the "VIX for bonds"). It leverages the observation that sharp MOVE spikes above a threshold (indicating bond market stress or illiquidity) have historically preceded liquidity injections from the Fed or Treasury, leading to rallies in risk assets post-2020 (e.g.,
March 2020 COVID crash, October 2022 rate hike volatility, March 2023 banking crisis). The indicator filters out false positives, like the February 2022 geopolitical spike from the Russia-Ukraine invasion, using WTI crude oil price surges as a proxy.Key features:Signal Detection: Fires a "Buy" label when the daily MOVE index crosses above the threshold (default 130) with a sudden rate of change (ROC > 27% over 5 days), signaling potential liquidity-driven bottoms.
Geopolitical Filter: Excludes signals if oil ROC exceeds 20% over 5 days, to avoid non-macro events.
Time Restriction: Only shows signals from January 1, 2020, onward, as the strategy is tuned to the post-COVID regime.
Visuals: Plots a green "Buy" label below the bar on the chart and optionally highlights the bar with a green background (85% opacity) for emphasis.
Alerts: Supports alerts for new signals via TradingView's alert system.
The indicator is versatile and can be applied to any asset chart, though it's optimized for risk assets like cryptocurrencies or equities. Backtesting shows high hit rates for rallies in S&P 500 and BTC after valid signals, but it's a heuristic tool—combine with other analysis for trading decisions.
ATR Squeeze BackgroundThis simple but powerful indicator shades the background of your chart whenever volatility contracts, based on a custom comparison of fast and slow ATR (Average True Range) periods.
By visualizing low-volatility zones, you can:
* Identify moments of compression that may precede explosive price moves
* Stay out of choppy, low-momentum periods
* Adapt this as a component in a broader volatility or breakout strategy
🔧 How It Works
* A Fast ATR (default: 7 periods) and a Slow ATR (default: 40 periods) are calculated
* When the Fast ATR is lower than the Slow ATR, the background is shaded in blue
* This shading signals a contraction in volatility — a condition often seen before breakouts or strong directional moves
⚡️ Why This Matters
Many experienced traders pay close attention to volatility cycles. This background indicator helps visualize those cycles at a glance. It's minimal, non-intrusive, and easy to combine with your existing tools.
🙏 Credits
This script borrows core logic from the excellent “Relative Volume at Time” script by TradingView. Credit is given with appreciation.
⚠️ Disclaimer
This script is for educational purposes only.
It does not constitute financial advice, and past performance is not indicative of future results. Always do your own research and test strategies before making trading decisions.
VolCorrBeta [NariCapitalTrading]Indicator Overview: VolCorrBeta
The VolCorrBeta indicator is designed to analyze and interpret intermarket relationships. This indicator combines volatility, correlation, and beta calculations to provide a comprehensive view of how certain assets (BTC, DXY, CL) influence the ES futures contract (I tailored this indicator to the ES contract, but it will work for any symbol).
Functionality
Input Symbols
BTCUSD : Bitcoin to USD
DXY : US Dollar Index
CL1! : Crude Oil Futures
ES1! : S&P 500 Futures
These symbols can be customized according to user preferences. The main focus of the indicator is to analyze how the price movements of these assets correlate with and lead the price movements of the ES futures contract.
Parameters for Calculation
Correlation Length : Number of periods for calculating the correlation.
Standard Deviation Length : Number of periods for calculating the standard deviation.
Lookback Period for Beta : Number of periods for calculating beta.
Volatility Filter Length : Length of the volatility filter.
Volatility Threshold : Threshold for adjusting the lookback period based on volatility.
Key Calculations
Returns Calculation : Computes the daily returns for each input symbol.
Correlation Calculation : Computes the correlation between each input symbol's returns and the ES futures contract returns over the specified correlation length.
Standard Deviation Calculation : Computes the standard deviation for each input symbol's returns and the ES futures contract returns.
Beta Calculation : Computes the beta for each input symbol relative to the ES futures contract.
Weighted Returns Calculation : Computes the weighted returns based on the calculated betas.
Lead-Lag Indicator : Calculates a lead-lag indicator by averaging the weighted returns.
Volatility Filter : Smooths the lead-lag indicator using a simple moving average.
Price Target Estimation : Estimates the ES price target based on the lead-lag indicator (the yellow line on the chart).
Dynamic Stop Loss (SL) and Take Profit (TP) Levels : Calculates dynamic SL and TP levels using volatility bands.
Signal Generation
The indicator generates buy and sell signals based on the filtered lead-lag indicator and confirms them using higher timeframe analysis. Signals are debounced to reduce frequency, ensuring that only significant signals are considered.
Visualization
Background Coloring : The background color changes based on the buy and sell signals for easy visualization (user can toggle this on/off).
Signal Labels : Labels with arrows are plotted on the chart, showing the signal type (buy/sell), the entry price, TP, and SL levels.
Estimated ES Price Target : The estimated price target for ES futures is plotted on the chart.
Correlation and Beta Dashboard : A table displayed in the top right corner shows the current correlation and beta values for relative to the ES futures contract.
Customization
Traders can customize the following parameters to tailor the indicator to their specific needs:
Input Symbols : Change the symbols for BTC, DXY, CL, and ES.
Correlation Length : Adjust the number of periods used for calculating correlation.
Standard Deviation Length : Adjust the number of periods used for calculating standard deviation.
Lookback Period for Beta : Change the lookback period for calculating beta.
Volatility Filter Length : Modify the length of the volatility filter.
Volatility Threshold : Set a threshold for adjusting the lookback period based on volatility.
Plotting Options : Customize the colors and line widths of the plotted elements.
Volatility Adjusted Weighted DEMA [BackQuant]Volatility Adjusted Weighted DEMA
The Volatility Adjusted Weighted Double Exponential Moving Average (VAWDEMA) by BackQuant is a sophisticated technical analysis tool designed for traders seeking to integrate volatility into their moving average calculations. This innovative indicator adjusts the weighting of the Double Exponential Moving Average (DEMA) according to recent volatility levels, offering a more dynamic and responsive measure of market trends.
Primarily, the single Moving average is very noisy, but can be used in the context of strategy development, where as the crossover, is best used in the context of defining a trading zone/ macro uptrend on higher timeframes.
Why Volatility Adjustment is Beneficial
Volatility is a fundamental aspect of financial markets, reflecting the intensity of price changes. A volatility adjustment in moving averages is beneficial because it allows the indicator to adapt more quickly during periods of high volatility, providing signals that are more aligned with the current market conditions. This makes the VAWDEMA a versatile tool for identifying trend strength and potential reversal points in more volatile markets.
Understanding DEMA and Its Advantages
DEMA is an indicator that aims to reduce the lag associated with traditional moving averages by applying a double smoothing process. The primary benefit of DEMA is its sensitivity and quicker response to price changes, making it an excellent tool for trend following and momentum trading. Incorporating DEMA into your analysis can help capture trends earlier than with simple moving averages.
The Power of Combining Volatility Adjustment with DEMA
By adjusting the weight of the DEMA based on volatility, the VAWDEMA becomes a powerful hybrid indicator. This combination leverages the quick responsiveness of DEMA while dynamically adjusting its sensitivity based on current market volatility. This results in a moving average that is both swift and adaptive, capable of providing more relevant signals for entering and exiting trades.
Core Logic Behind VAWDEMA
The core logic of the VAWDEMA involves calculating the DEMA for a specified period and then adjusting its weighting based on a volatility measure, such as the average true range (ATR) or standard deviation of price changes. This results in a weighted DEMA that reflects both the direction and the volatility of the market, offering insights into potential trend continuations or reversals.
Utilizing the Crossover in a Trading System
The VAWDEMA crossover occurs when two VAWDEMAs of different lengths cross, signaling potential bullish or bearish market conditions. In a trading system, a crossover can be used as a trigger for entry or exit points:
Bullish Signal: When a shorter-period VAWDEMA crosses above a longer-period VAWDEMA, it may indicate an uptrend, suggesting a potential entry point for a long position.
Bearish Signal: Conversely, when a shorter-period VAWDEMA crosses below a longer-period VAWDEMA, it might signal a downtrend, indicating a possible exit point or a short entry.
Incorporating VAWDEMA crossovers into a trading strategy can enhance decision-making by providing timely and adaptive signals that account for both trend direction and market volatility. Traders should combine these signals with other forms of analysis and risk management techniques to develop a well-rounded trading strategy.
Alert Conditions For Trading
alertcondition(vwdema>vwdema , title="VWDEMA Long", message="VWDEMA Long - {{ticker}} - {{interval}}")
alertcondition(vwdema
Volatility Exponential Moving AverageVEMA is a custom indicator that enhances the traditional moving average by incorporating market volatility. Unlike standard moving averages that rely solely on price, VEMA integrates both the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and the Exponential Moving Average (EMA) of the closing price, alongside a measure of market volatility.
The unique aspect of VEMA is its approach. It calculates the standard deviation of the closing price and also computes the simple moving average of this volatility. This dual approach to understanding market fluctuations allows for a more nuanced understanding of market dynamics.
Key to VEMA's functionality is the dynamic weighting factor, which adjusts the influence of SMA and EMA based on current market volatility. This factor increases the weight of the EMA, which is more responsive to recent price changes, during periods of high volatility. Conversely, during periods of lower volatility, the SMA, which offers a smoother view of price trends, becomes more prominent.
The resultant is a hybrid moving average that responds adaptively to changes in market volatility. This adaptability makes VEMA particularly useful in dynamic markets, potentially offering more insightful trend analysis and reversal signals compared to traditional moving averages.
Simple RangeThe daily price range is a good proxy to judge an instrument’s volatility. I have combined multiple concepts in this indicator to display information regarding the daily price range & its volatility.
A trading period's range is simply the difference between its high and the low. This script shows the daily high-to-low range of the price as a column chart. It has 3 main components:
1. Narrow-range days (NR7) & Wide-range Days (WR20) - as plot columns
Original concept from Thomas Bulkowski
Modified from "NR4 & NR7 Indicator" script by theapextrader7
Modified from "WR - BC Identifier" script by wrpteam2020
Narrow range days mark price contractions that often precede price expansions. This script uses NR7 (narrow range 7) as a narrow-range day. This value can be changed by the user if, instead of an NR7, he or she wishes to use NR4 or NR21, or any other interval of his or her choice. NR7 is an indecisive trading day in which the range is narrower than any of the previous six days (a total of 7 days). This is a popular concept given by Thomas Bulkowski. A breakout is said to occur when price closes above the top or below the bottom of the NR7. Upside breakout of an NR 7 candle with high volumes indicates bullishness.
Similarly, highs & lows of wide-range bars (on big volumes) are also significant reference levels for price. Wide-range candle are identified by size of the body candle (open - close). The script compares the size of previous 20 candles to identify WR20 candles. This value can also be changed by the user.
The script shows NR7 & WR20 as orange & blue bars, respectively.
The user can also turn on the option to identify a big high-to-low range candle greater than a pre-defined threshold (default is 5%). These show up as green or red bars.
2. TTM Squeeze - as background
Original concept from John Carter's book "Mastering the Trade"
Based on "Squeeze Momentum Indicator" script by LazyBear
John Carter’s TTM Squeeze indicator looks at the relationship between Bollinger Bands and Keltner's Channels to help identify period of volatility contractions. Bollinger Bands being completely enclosed within the Keltner Channels is indicative of a very low volatility. This is a state of volatility contraction known as squeeze. Using different ATR lengths (1.0, 1.5 and 2.0) for Keltner Channels, we can differentiate between levels of squeeze (High, Mid & Low compression, respectively). Greater the compression, higher the potential for explosive moves.
In the script, the High, Mid & Low compression squeezes are depicted via the background color being red, orange, or yellow, respectively.
3. Average Daily Range - as table
Original idea by alpine_trader
Modified from "ADR% - Average Daily Range % by MikeC" script by TheScrutiniser
Average Day Range (ADR) tells how much the price moves between the high and low on a given day. This is the day Range, which is then averaged to create ADR. The script uses an average of the last 20 days to calculate the ADR. Unlike ATR (Average True Range), this excludes Gaps.
The script displays the ADR as a % value in a table.
If you want to find stocks that move a lot on an average on most days, then look for stocks that have ADR% of 5% or more.
If you prefer lower volatility stocks, focus on stocks with lower ADR% values, such as 2% or less.
How it comes together
For a bullish "momentum burst", or a velocity trade:
Select stocks with Average Day Range % (ADR) greater than 5
Identify significant reference price levels via highs & lows of WR20 bars (on big volumes)
Wait for a decent mid-to-high compression squeeze
Look for clusters of NR7 candles in the consolidation
Any breakout from this consolidation should be accompanied by more than average (preferably pocket pivot) volumes
trend_vol_forecastNote: The following description is copied from the script's comments. Since TradingView does not allow me to edit this description, please refer to the comments and release notes for the most up-to-date information.
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USAGE
This script compares trend trading with a volatility stop to "buy and hold".
Trades are taken with the trend, except when price exceeds a volatility
forecast. The trend is defined by a moving average crossover. The forecast
is based on projecting future volatility from historical volatility.
The trend is defined by two parameters:
- long: the length of a long ("slow") moving average.
- short: the length of a short ("fast") moving average.
The trend is up when the short moving average is above the long. Otherwise
it is down.
The volatility stop is defined by three parameters:
- volatility window: determines the number of periods in the historical
volatility calculation. More periods means a slower (smoother)
estimate of historical volatility.
- stop forecast periods: the number of periods in the volatility
forecast. For example, "7" on a daily chart means that the volatility
will be forecasted with a one week lag.
- stop forecast stdev: the number of standard deviations in the stop
forecast. For example, "2" means two standard deviations.
EXAMPLE
The default parameters are:
- long: 50
- short: 20
- volatility window: 30
- stop forecast periods: 7
- stop forecast standard deviations: 1
The trend will be up when the 20 period moving average is above the 50
period moving average. On each bar, the historical volatility will be
calculated from the previous 30 bars. If the historical volatility is 0.65
(65%), then a forecast will be drawn as a fuchsia line, subtracting
0.65 * sqrt(7 / 365) from the closing price. If price at any point falls
below the forecast, the volatility stop is in place, and the trend is
negated.
OUTPUTS
Plots:
- The trend is shown by painting the slow moving average green (up), red
(down), or black (none; volatility stop).
- The fast moving average is shown in faint blue
- The previous volatility forecasts are shown in faint fuchsia
- The current volatility forecast is shown as a fuchsia line, projecting
into the future as far as it is valid.
Tables:
- The current historical volatility is given in the top right corner, as a
whole number percentage.
- The performance table shows the mean, standard deviation, and sharpe
ratio of the volatility stop trend strategy, as well as buy and hold.
If the trend is up, each period's return is added to the sample (the
strategy is long). If the trend is down, the inverse of each period's
return is added to the sample (the strategy is short). If there is no
trend (the volatility stop is active), the period's return is excluded
from the sample. Every period is added to the buy-and-hold strategy's
sample. The total number of periods in each sample is also shown.
FXBABATRADING ~ ZRANGE IndicatorOur ZRange indicator is an outstanding indicator to measure Volatility , that is, how much price has deviated from the mean. This indicator is part of a bundle of 5 indicators which we call the ZScore Indicator Suite all based on the ZScore function of statistics.
In this particular mode (ZRange) you can see whether the actual Standard Deviation is above or below the mean average of the Standard Deviation (period of your choice) determined by a + or - value. The value itself represents a Standard Deviation multiplier. A reading below ZERO simulates the Bollinger Band Squeeze, a time of price consolidation that is bound to break. Ideally you want to enter trades when the value of ZRange is increasing and above the signal line.
Alerts are provided for when volatility is increasing and or decreasing. Alerts can be turned off in settings.
Strategies where price is trending sideways will benefit when the ZRange is decreasing as it signifies price entering consolidation.
Each indicator in the ZScore Suite has a particular function:
ZClassic: Measures the position of Price in relation to a set average in units of standard deviation.
ZRange: Measures the position of the Standard Deviation itself in relation to a set average, in units of standard deviation.
ZVolumeDelta: Measures the position of Volume Delta in relation to a set average, in units of standard deviation.
ZTrend: Its a custom mathematical function that allows to measure the strength and direction of the Trend in reference to a set average.
Circuit Breaker Table (NSE Style)🛡️ NSE Circuit Breaker Table – With Volatility-Based Band Support
This script displays a real-time circuit breaker table for any stock, showing the Upper and Lower circuit limits in a clean 2x2 grid. It’s especially useful for Indian traders monitoring NSE-listed stocks.
✅ Key Features:
📊 Upper & Lower Limits based on the previous day’s close
⚡ Optional ATR-based dynamic volatility band calculation
🎨 Customizable font sizes (Small / Medium / Large)
✅ Table neatly positioned on the top-right corner of your chart
🟢 Upper circuit shown in green, 🔴 lower circuit in red
Works on all NSE stocks and adapts automatically to charted symbols
⚙️ Customization Options:
Use static percentage bands (e.g., 10%)
Or enable ATR mode to reflect dynamic circuit potential based on recent volatility
This tool helps you stay aware of where a stock might get halted — useful for momentum traders, circuit breakout traders, and anyone monitoring volatility limits during intraday sessions.
Frahm Factor Position Size CalculatorThe Frahm Factor Position Size Calculator is a powerful evolution of the original Frahm Factor script, leveraging its volatility analysis to dynamically adjust trading risk. This Pine Script for TradingView uses the Frahm Factor’s volatility score (1-10) to set risk percentages (1.75% to 5%) for both Margin-Based and Equity-Based position sizing. A compact table on the main chart displays Risk per Trade, Frahm Factor, and Average Candle Size, making it an essential tool for traders aligning risk with market conditions.
Calculates a volatility score (1-10) using true range percentile rank over a customizable look-back window (default 24 hours).
Dynamically sets risk percentage based on volatility:
Low volatility (score ≤ 3): 5% risk for bolder trades.
High volatility (score ≥ 8): 1.75% risk for caution.
Medium volatility (score 4-7): Smoothly interpolated (e.g., 4 → 4.3%, 5 → 3.6%).
Adjustable sensitivity via Frahm Scale Multiplier (default 9) for tailored volatility response.
Position Sizing:
Margin-Based: Risk as a percentage of total margin (e.g., $175 for 1.75% of $10,000 at high volatility).
Equity-Based: Risk as a percentage of (equity - minimum balance) (e.g., $175 for 1.75% of ($15,000 - $5,000)).
Compact 1-3 row table shows:
Risk per Trade with Frahm score (e.g., “$175.00 (Frahm: 8)”).
Frahm Factor (e.g., “Frahm Factor: 8”).
Average Candle Size (e.g., “Avg Candle: 50 t”).
Toggles to show/hide Frahm Factor and Average Candle Size rows, with no empty backgrounds.
Four sizes: XL (18x7, large text), L (13x6, normal), M (9x5, small, default), S (8x4, tiny).
Repositionable (9 positions, default: top-right).
Customizable cell color, text color, and transparency.
Set Frahm Factor:
Frahm Window (hrs): Pick how far back to measure volatility (e.g., 24 hours). Shorter for fast markets, longer for chill ones.
Frahm Scale Multiplier: Set sensitivity (1-10, default 9). Higher makes the score jumpier; lower smooths it out.
Set Margin-Based:
Total Margin: Enter your account balance (e.g., $10,000). Risk auto-adjusts via Frahm Factor.
Set Equity-Based:
Total Equity: Enter your total account balance (e.g., $15,000).
Minimum Balance: Set to the lowest your account can go before liquidation (e.g., $5,000). Risk is based on the difference, auto-adjusted by Frahm Factor.
Customize Display:
Calculation Method: Pick Margin-Based or Equity-Based.
Table Position: Choose where the table sits (e.g., top_right).
Table Size: Select XL, L, M, or S (default M, small text).
Table Cell Color: Set background color (default blue).
Table Text Color: Set text color (default white).
Table Cell Transparency: Adjust transparency (0 = solid, 100 = invisible, default 80).
Show Frahm Factor & Show Avg Candle Size: Check to show these rows, uncheck to hide (default on).
OA - Sigma BandsDescription:
The OA - Sigma Bands indicator is a fully adaptive, volatility-sensitive dynamic band system designed to detect price expansion and potential breakouts. Unlike traditional fixed-width Bollinger Bands, OA - Sigma Bands adjust their boundaries based on a combination of standard deviation (σ) and Average Daily Range (ADR), making them more responsive to real market behavior and shifts in volatility.
Key Concepts & Logic
This tool constructs three distinct band regions:
Sigma Bands (±σ):
Calculated using the standard deviation of the closing price over a user-defined lookback period. This acts as the core volatility filter to identify statistically significant price deviations.
ADR Zones (±ADR):
These zones provide an additional layer based on the percentage average of daily price ranges over the last 20 bars. They help visualize intraday or short-term expected volatility.
Dynamic Adjustment Logic:
When price breaks outside the upper/lower sigma or ADR boundaries for a defined number of bars (user input), the system recalibrates. This ensures that the bands evolve with volatility and don’t remain outdated in trending markets.
Inputs & Customization
Sigma Multiplier: Set how wide the sigma bands should be (default: 1.5).
Lookback Period: Controls how many bars are used to calculate the standard deviation (default: 200).
Break Confirmation Bars: Determines how many candles must close beyond a boundary to trigger band recalibration.
ADR Period: Internally fixed at 20 bars for stable short-term volatility measurement.
Full Color Customization: Customize the band colors and fill transparency to suit your chart style.
Benefits & Use Cases
Breakout Trading: Detect when price exits statistically significant ranges, confirming trend expansion.
Mean Reversion: Use the outer bands as potential reversion zones in sideways or low-volatility markets.
Volatility Awareness: Visually identify when price is compressed or expanding.
Dynamic Structure: The auto-updating nature makes it more reliable than static historical zones.
Overlay-Ready: Designed to sit directly on price charts with minimal clutter.
Disclaimer
This script is intended for educational and informational purposes only. It does not constitute investment advice, financial guidance, or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always perform your own research and apply proper risk management before making trading decisions.
If you enjoy this script or find it useful, feel free to give it or leave a comment!
ConeCastConeCast is a forward-looking projection indicator that visualizes a future price range (or "cone") based on recent trend momentum and adaptive volatility. Unlike lagging bands or reactive channels, this tool plots a predictive zone 3–50 bars ahead, allowing traders to anticipate potential price behavior rather than merely react to it.
How It Works
The core of ConeCast is a dynamic trend-slope engine derived from a Linear Regression line fitted over a user-defined lookback window. The slope of this trend is projected forward, and the cone’s width adapts based on real-time market volatility. In calm markets, the cone is narrow and focused. In volatile regimes, it expands proportionally, using an ATR-based % of price to scale.
Key Features
📈 Predictive Cone Zone: Visualizes a forward range using trend slope × volatility width.
🔄 Auto-Adaptive Volatility Scaling: Expands or contracts based on market quiet/chaotic states.
📊 Regime Detection: Identifies Bull, Bear, or Neutral states using a tunable slope threshold.
🧭 Multi-Timeframe Compatible: Slope and volatility can be calculated from higher timeframes.
🔔 Smart Alerts: Detects price entering the cone, and signals trend regime changes in real time.
🖼️ Clean Visual Output: Optionally includes outer cones, trend-trail marker, and dashboard label.
How to Use It
Use on 15m–4H charts for best forward visibility.
Look for price entering the cone as a potential trend continuation setup.
Monitor regime changes and volatility expansion to filter choppy market zones.
Tune the slope sensitivity and ATR multiplier to match your symbol's behavior.
Use outer cones to anticipate aggressive swings and wick traps.
What Makes It Unique
ConeCast doesn’t follow price — it predicts a possible future price envelope using trend + volatility math, without relying on lagging indicators or repainting logic. It's a hybrid of regression-based forecasting and dynamic risk zoning, designed for swing traders, scalpers, and algo developers alike.
Limitations
ConeCast projects based on current trend and volatility — it does not "know" future price. Like all projection tools, accuracy depends on trend persistence and market conditions. Use this in combination with confirmation signals and risk management.
Quantile DEMA Trend | QuantEdgeB🚀 Introducing Quantile DEMA Trend (QDT) by QuantEdgeB
🛠️ Overview
Quantile DEMA Trend (QDT) is an advanced trend-following and momentum detection indicator designed to capture price trends with superior accuracy. Combining DEMA (Double Exponential Moving Average) with SuperTrend and Quantile Filtering, QDT identifies strong trends while maintaining the ability to adapt to various market conditions.
Unlike traditional trend indicators, QDT uses percentile filtering to adjust for volatility and provides dynamic thresholds, ensuring consistent signal performance across different assets and timeframes.
✨ Key Features
🔹 Trend Following with Adaptive Sensitivity
The DEMA component ensures quicker responses to price changes while reducing lag, offering a real-time reflection of market momentum.
🔹 Volatility-Adjusted Filtering
The SuperTrend logic incorporates quantile percentile filters and ATR (Average True Range) multipliers, allowing QDT to adapt to fluctuating market volatility.
🔹 Clear Signal Generation
QDT generates clear Long and Short signals using percentile thresholds, effectively identifying trend changes and market reversals.
🔹 Customizable Visual & Signal Settings
With multiple color modes and customizable settings, you can easily align the QDT indicator with your trading strategy, whether you're focused on trend-following or volatility adjustments.
📊 How It Works
1️⃣ DEMA Calculation
DEMA is used to reduce lag compared to traditional moving averages. It is calculated by applying a Double Exponential Moving Average to price data. This smoother trend-following mechanism ensures responsiveness to market movements without introducing excessive noise.
2️⃣ SuperTrend with Percentile Filtering
The SuperTrend component adapts the trend-following signal by incorporating quantile percentile filters. It identifies dynamic support and resistance levels based on historical price data:
• Upper Band: Calculated using the 75th percentile + ATR (adjusted with multiplier)
• Lower Band: Calculated using the 25th percentile - ATR (adjusted with multiplier)
These dynamic bands adjust to market conditions, filtering out noise while identifying the true direction.
3️⃣ Signal Generation
• Long Signal: Triggered when price crosses below the SuperTrend Lower Band
• Short Signal: Triggered when price crosses above the SuperTrend Upper Band
The indicator provides signals with corresponding trend direction based on these crossovers.
👁 Visual & Custom Features
• 🎨 Multiple Color Modes: Choose from "Strategy", "Solar", "Warm", "Cool", "Classic", and "Magic" color palettes to match your charting style.
• 🏷️ Long/Short Signal Labels: Optional labels for visual cueing when a long or short trend is triggered.
• 📉 Bar Color Customization: Bar colors dynamically adjust based on trend direction to visually distinguish the market bias.
👥 Who Should Use QDT?
✅ Trend Followers: Use QDT as a dynamic tool to confirm trends and capture profits in trending markets.
✅ Swing Traders: Use QDT to time entries based on confirmed breakouts or breakdowns.
✅ Volatility Traders: Identify market exhaustion or expansion points, especially during volatile periods.
✅ Systematic & Quant Traders: Integrate QDT into algorithmic strategies to enhance market detection with adaptive filtering.
⚙️ Customization & Default Settings
- DEMA Length(30): Controls the lookback period for DEMA calculation
- Percentile Length(10): Sets the lookback period for percentile filtering
- ATR Length(14): Defines the length for calculating ATR (used in SuperTrend)
- ATR Multiplier(1.2 ): Multiplier for ATR in SuperTrend calculation
- SuperTrend Length(30):Defines the length for SuperTrend calculations
📌 How to Use QDT in Trading
1️⃣ Trend-Following Strategy
✔ Enter Long positions when QDT signals a bullish breakout (price crosses below the SuperTrend lower band).
✔ Enter Short positions when QDT signals a bearish breakdown (price crosses above the SuperTrend upper band).
✔ Hold positions as long as QDT continues to provide the same direction.
2️⃣ Reversal Strategy
✔ Take profits when price reaches extreme levels (upper or lower percentile zones) that may indicate trend exhaustion or reversion.
3️⃣ Volatility-Driven Entries
✔ Use the percentile filtering to enter positions based on mean-reversion logic or breakout setups in volatile markets.
🧠 Why It Works
QDT combines the DEMA’s quick response to price changes with SuperTrend's volatility-adjusted thresholds, ensuring a responsive and adaptive indicator. The use of percentile filters and ATR multipliers helps adjust to varying market conditions, making QDT suitable for both trending and range-bound environments.
🔹 Conclusion
The Quantile DEMA Trend (QDT) by QuantEdgeB is a powerful, adaptive trend-following and momentum detection system. By integrating DEMA, SuperTrend, and quantile percentile filtering, it provides accurate and timely signals while adjusting to market volatility. Whether you are a trend follower or volatility trader, QDT offers a robust solution to identify high-probability entry and exit points.
🔹 Key Takeaways:
1️⃣ Trend Confirmation – Uses DEMA and SuperTrend for dynamic trend detection
2️⃣ Volatility Filtering – Adjusts to varying market conditions using percentile logic
3️⃣ Clear Signal Generation – Easy-to-read signals and visual cues for strategy implementation
📌 Disclaimer: Past performance is not indicative of future results. No trading strategy can guarantee success in financial markets.
📌 Strategic Advice: Always backtest, optimize, and align parameters with your trading objectives and risk tolerance before live trading.
Volatility-Driven CandleThis indicator identifies and highlights "volatility-driven candles" on a price chart, based on their body size relative to market volatility. It calculates the Average True Range (ATR) over a 14-period window to measure volatility. A candle is considered "volatility-driven" if its body (the difference between the close and open prices) exceeds a user-defined threshold, which is specified as a multiple of the ATR.
The script distinguishes between bullish and bearish volatility-driven candles:
Bullish volatility-driven candles (where the close is greater than the open) are marked with a blue label.
Bearish volatility-driven candles (where the close is less than the open) are marked with an orange label.
Additionally, the background color of the chart is shaded:
Blue for bullish volatility-driven candles.
Orange for bearish volatility-driven candles.
This script helps traders easily spot significant price movements relative to volatility, highlighting potential reversal points based on candle body size.
ATR Combined IndicatorHow to Use and Adjust the ATR Stop-Loss & Risk Manager Indicator in TradingView
The ATR Stop-Loss & Risk Manager indicator is designed to help traders visualize Average True Range (ATR)-based stop-loss levels and assess risk. Here's a step-by-step guide on how to use it and adjust its settings.
Adding the Indicator to Your Chart
Open TradingView and select your desired chart and time frame.
Click on the Pine Editor at the bottom of the screen.
Paste the provided script into the editor and click Add to Chart.
Once added, the indicator will appear on your chart with ATR values, stop-loss levels, and a risk table.
Indicator Outputs
ATR Line: A line representing the Average True Range (ATR) value, providing a measure of market volatility.
Stop-Loss Levels:
Stop Loss High: A green line above the current price, representing the suggested stop-loss level for long positions.
Stop Loss Low: A red line below the current price, representing the suggested stop-loss level for short positions.
Risk Table:
Displays the ATR value multiplied by a user-defined risk multiplier in a table on the chart.
Configuring the Settings
To customize the indicator for your trading strategy, click the gear icon next to the indicator’s name in the Indicators pane.
1. ATR Settings
ATR Period: Adjust the number of bars used to calculate the ATR. Common values include 14 (default) or 20. Shorter periods respond faster to price changes, while longer periods smooth volatility.
Smoothing Method:
Choose between RMA, SMA, EMA, or WMA for the ATR calculation:
RMA (default): A variation of the moving average commonly used in ATR.
SMA: Simple Moving Average, giving equal weight to all bars in the calculation.
EMA: Exponential Moving Average, which gives more weight to recent bars.
WMA: Weighted Moving Average, emphasizing recent prices linearly.
2. Multipliers
ATR Multiplier for Table: Adjust this to scale the ATR value displayed in the table. For example:
Set it to 1.0 to display the exact ATR.
Increase or decrease it to align with your risk tolerance.
Stop Loss Multiplier: Adjust this to change how far the stop-loss levels are plotted from the current price. For example:
Use 1.5 (default) for moderate levels.
Increase for wider stops or decrease for tighter stops.
3. Table Customization
Table Position: Select where the table appears on the chart:
Top Right (default), Top Left, Bottom Right, Bottom Left, Middle Right, or Middle Left.
Border Color: Choose the border color for the table.
Background Color: Set the table's background color.
Text Color: Customize the table text color for better visibility.
4. Visualization
Stop-Loss High and Low Lines:
Use these lines to determine potential stop-loss levels for your trades based on the ATR and stop-loss multiplier.
Green for Stop Loss High (long positions).
Red for Stop Loss Low (short positions).
Practical Use Cases
Volatility-Based Stop Losses:
Use the stop-loss lines to set dynamic stop-loss levels based on market volatility.
Adjust the multipliers to match your trading style:
Tight stops for scalping or day trading.
Wider stops for swing or position trading.
Risk Assessment:
Use the ATR value in the table to gauge market volatility before entering trades.
Higher ATR values indicate more volatile markets, requiring wider stops.
Position Sizing:
Incorporate the ATR value into your position-sizing strategy. For example:
Divide your account risk (e.g., 1% of equity) by the ATR to calculate position size.
Volatility and Tick Size DataThis indicator, titled "Tick Information & Standard Deviation Table," provides detailed insights into market microstructure, including tick size, point value, and standard deviation values calculated based on the True Range. It helps visualize essential trading parameters that influence transaction costs, risk management, and portfolio performance, including volatility measures that can guide investment strategies.
Why These Data Points Are Important for Portfolio Management
Tick Size and Point Value:
Tick size refers to the smallest possible price movement in a given asset. It defines the granularity of the price changes, affecting how precise the market price can be at any moment. Point value reflects the monetary value of a single price movement (one tick). These two data points are essential for understanding transaction costs and for evaluating how much capital is at risk per price movement. Smaller tick sizes may lead to more efficient pricing in high-frequency trading strategies (Hasbrouck, 2009).
Reference: Hasbrouck, J. (2009). Empirical Market Microstructure. Foundations and Trends® in Finance, 3(4), 169-272.
Standard Deviations and Volatility:
Standard deviation measures the variability or volatility of an asset's price over a set period. This data point is critical for portfolio management, as it helps to quantify risk and predict potential price movements. True Range and its standard deviations provide a more comprehensive measure of market volatility than just price fluctuations, as they include gaps and extreme price changes. Investors use volatility data to assess the potential risk and adjust portfolio allocations accordingly (Ang, 2006).
Reference: Ang, A. (2006). Asset Management: A Systematic Approach to Factor Investing. Oxford University Press.
Risk Management:
The ability to quantify risk through metrics like the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd standard deviations of the true range is essential for implementing risk controls within a portfolio. By incorporating volatility data, portfolio managers can adjust their strategies for different market conditions, potentially reducing exposure to high-risk environments. These volatility measures help in setting stop-loss levels, optimizing position sizes, and managing the portfolio’s overall risk-return profile (Black & Scholes, 1973).
Reference: Black, F., & Scholes, M. (1973). The Pricing of Options and Corporate Liabilities. Journal of Political Economy, 81(3), 637-654.
Portfolio Diversification and Hedging:
Understanding asset volatility and transaction costs is critical when constructing a diversified portfolio. By using the standard deviations from this indicator, investors can better identify assets that may provide diversification benefits, potentially reducing the overall portfolio risk. Moreover, the point values and tick sizes help assess the cost-effectiveness of various assets, enabling portfolio managers to implement more efficient hedging strategies (Markowitz, 1952).
Reference: Markowitz, H. (1952). Portfolio Selection. The Journal of Finance, 7(1), 77-91.
Conclusion
The Tick Information & Standard Deviation Table provides critical market data that informs the risk management, diversification, and pricing strategies used in portfolio management. By incorporating tick size, point value, and volatility metrics, investors can make more informed decisions, better manage risk, and optimize the returns on their portfolios. The data serves as an essential tool for aligning asset selection and portfolio allocations with the investor's risk tolerance and market conditions.
Custom ATR Trailing StopThis Script creates a custom ATR (Average True Range) trailing stop. It allows traders to set up automated stop-loss levels based on the ATR, which adjusts dynamically to market volatility. The script is designed to support both long and short trades, offering flexibility and precision in trade management.
When loading the indicator to your chart, simply click to set the trade begining time, confirm various settings and you are set.
Check tooltips for more details in the input settigns menu.
User Inputs
Trade Setup: Allows users to set the trade direction (Long or Short), the signal source for entries, and the specific bar time for the trade setup.
ATR Settings: Configurable ATR lookback period, ATR smoothing period, initial ATR multiplier for setting the stop-loss, breakeven ATR multiplier, and a manual breakeven level.
ATR Calculations
Computes the ATR and its moving average.
Determines initial and breakeven stop levels based on the ATR.
Signal Validation
Validates long or short trade signals based on the specified bar time and trade direction.
Triggers alerts when a valid trade signal is detected.
Trailing Stop Logic
For long trades, adjusts the stop-loss level dynamically based on the ATR.
For short trades, performs similar adjustments in the opposite direction.
Updates the trailing stop level to ensure it follows the price, moving closer as the price moves favorably.
Resets the trade state when the stop-loss is hit, triggering an alert.
Plotting
Plots the trailing stop levels on the chart.
Uses green for stop levels indicating profit and red for stop levels indicating a loss.
