Steven Primo's bollinger bands strategyHi, this strategy is taken from a video made by Steven Primo. You can look it up on YouTube if you want to know about it.
It is a mean-reversion strategy based on the Bollinger Bands, in which we wait for 5 consecutive closes above the upper band, and for a short-term top. Once it happens, we place an entry order on this top, with a stop at the nearest bottom before the movement started, and use the difference from the stop and entry point to determine the target. For shorting, it's the same process, but for the downside. From my testing, only long orders were profitable, but you can configure whichever you want.
It works well for directional markets with a low level of noise, as you can see with the BTCUSD chart. One of its caveats is the short number of occurrences, and the long stop loss and target. You can enable a trailing stop, but from my testings, it just made the results worse.
I made some modifications, like removing the MA requirement, since the entry point was above it almost all the time, and I forced the BB to use a log version of the prices, so that discrepancies are eliminated. You'll also notice that you can't select an extension that is lower than 100, and that is intentional, since you're not supposed to enter a trade in which you can lose more than what you can earn.
I chose not to implement any kind of risk management, but I might do that in the future. You can leave your suggestions in the comments.
Meanreversion
R3 ETF StrategyThis strategy is a modification of the “R3 Strategy” from the book "High Probability ETF Trading" by Larry Connors and Cesar Alvarez. This RSI strategy is for a 1-day time-frame and has these 3 simple rules:
Criteria:
The price must be above the 200 day moving average.
The 2-period (day) RSI drops 3 days in a row.
The 2-period RSI must have been below 60 3 days ago and below 10 today.
Entry and Exit:
If the 3 rules above are true, then buy on the close of the current day.
Exit on the day's close when the RSI crosses above 70.
How it works :
The Strategy will buy when the buy conditions above are true. The strategy will sell when the RSI crosses above 70. The RSI period/length, and RSI entry/exit criteria thresholds have all been coded to be adjustable with inputs.
Plots :
Blue line = 200 Day EMA (Used as Entry Criteria)
Disclaimer: Open-source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. If you would like to implement a version of any script, I would recommend making significant additions/modifications to the strategy & risk management functions. If you don’t know how to program in Pine, then hire a Pine-coder. We can help!
Outside DayThis strategy is taken from Perry Kaufman's book "Trading System and Methods".
You can enter on the direction of the candle, or opposite to it. I find that the opposite tends to yield better results in volatile assets, allowing a better reward to risk ratio. There is no stop loss in this strategy, only a fixed take profit and a time limitation.
Low-High-Trend StrategyWhen asked what the key to successful investing was, Warren Buffet famously said “buy low, sell high.” Was he onto something? Today I am sharing with the community a simple “buy low, sell high” strategy with an optional trend filter and take-profit target. I’ve found that this strategy works well in a variety of markets but has a higher tendency to out-perform buy & hold in markets that are ranging sideways.
How it works:
The strategy tracks the highest and lowest price over the last X number of bars (you select the look-back period). The highest price line is plotted in green and the lowest price line is potted in red. If the price crosses over the lowest price in the last X number of bars, then a buy signal is generated. Exit options include a take-profit % or selling when the price crosses over the highest price in the last X amount of bars. I.e. “Buy low, sell high.” An EMA is also plotted as a blue trend line, and there is an option to only trade if the price is above the EMA trend line.
Disclaimer: Open source scripts I publish in the community are largely meant to spark ideas that can be used as building blocks for part of a more robust trade management strategy. Even though this example script beats buy and hold over the back-test time-frame, I wouldn't advise using it as a stand-alone strategy without significant additions/modifications to the strategy and risk management functions. In this example the script is being used as a medium-term strategy with just 10% leverage over account equity, a $25k start balance, and back-testing 10+ years. Modifiable slippage and commissions are included in the model.
Green line = Highest price in the look-back period
Red line = Lowest price in the look-back period
Blue line = EMA Trend
Mean Reversion Strategy v2 [KL]Description :
This strategy will enter a position when the following conditions are met:
a) Main signal: When source data (ATR) diverts from its moving average value, and
b) Confirmation: If predicted direction of trend is favorable.
Assumptions :
During periods of high price volatility, ATR diverts from its moving average value. Eventually, ATR should revert. But since just knowing the magnitude of increase/decrease of ATR does not indicate a trend signal, we need to introduce a model to predict the current trend.
In short:
• Trend Prediction : This strategy calculates the expected logarithmic return of the security (the "Drift") and considers prices to be moving in uptrend if the drift curve is upward sloping.
• Assessment of ATR diversion : To determine "yes/no" regarding whether ATR at a given point in time has diverted, this script conducts a two-tailed hypothesis test at each candlestick period. The null hypothesis (H0) is that the fast moving average value should equal the slow moving average value (say, denoted as H0: atr14 == atr28; it is assumed that atr28 is more meaningful for the purpose of describing the current trend because it has a larger sample size). Investopedia has an article summarizing this topic .
Exit Condition :
When trailing stop loss hits.
Previous version :
This strategy is based on Version 1 published back in September . This older version considers +/- one standard deviation to be the critical values relative to average ATR when testing whether ATR has diverted from the mean. This does not take Standard Error ("SE") into account. As a result, the threshold is often too wide and it generates too many entry signals.
[KL] Mean Reversion (ATR) StrategyThis strategy will enter into a position when price volatility is relative high, betting that price will subsequently trend in a favourable direction.
Hypothesis : During periods of high price volatility, ATR will divert from its moving average by at least +/- one standard deviation. Eventually, ATR will revert back to the mean. However, just knowing the magnitude of increase/decrease of ATR does not give a trend signal, so we need to introduce a model in this script to predict whether the next bars will be up/down.
Trend Prediction : This strategy calculates the expected logarithmic return of the security (the "Drift") and considers prices to be moving in uptrend if the drift curve is upward sloping or if the drift value is positive.
Entry Conditions : Long position is entered when:
(a) ATR has diverted from mean by one standard deviation, and
(b) trend is predicted to move in our favor.
Exit Condition : When trailing stop loss is hit.
Results from backtesting against VOO (1H timeframe):
- approx 46% win rate over 491 trades, on average holding for 20 hours per trade
- price at the beginning of backtest (Jan. 2015) was $187.52, giving holding period return of ~120% had we not sold in between ("HPR of HODL'ing")
- this strategy gained ~159%, exceeding ~120% HPR of HODL'ing
HYE Combo Market [Strategy] (Vwap Mean Reversion + Trend Hunter)In this strategy, I used a combination of trend hunter and vwap mean reversion strategies that I published before.
Trend Hunter Strategy:
Mean Reversion Vwap Strategy:
The results are quite impressive, especially for bitcoin.
While the hodl return for bitcoin was 13419%, the strategy's return in the same period was about 5 times (65000%) of this.
s3.tradingview.com
In this combo strategy, I made some changes to the original settings of the strategies used together and added some more new features.
Trend Hunter Strategy Settings: (Original / Combo)
- Slow Tenkansen Period : 9 / 9
- Slow Kijunsen Period : 26 / 13
- Fast Tenkansen Period : 5 / 3
- Fast Kijunsen Period : 13 / 7
- BB Length : 20 / 20
- BB Stdev : 2 / 2
- TSV Length : 13 / 20
- TSV Ema Length : 7 / 7
* I also added a "vidya moving average" to be used as a confirmation tool to open a long position. (Candle close must be above the vidya line.)
Vwap Mean Reversion Strategy Settings: (Original / Combo)
- Small Vwap : 2 / 8
- Big Vwap : 5 / 10
- Percent Below to Buy : 3 / 2
- RSI Period : 2 / 2
- RSI Ema Period : 5 / 5
- Maximum RSI Level for Buy : 30
* I also added a "mean vwap line" to be used for exits in this part of the strategy. In the original version, when small vwap crossovers big vwap, we close the position, but in this strategy we will wait for the close above the mean vwap.
TIPS AND WARNINGS
1-) The standard settings of this combo strategy is designed and tested with daily timeframe. For lower timeframes, you should change the strategy settings and find the best value for yourself.
2-) Only the mean vwap line is displayed on the graph. For a detailed view, you can delete the "//" marks from the plot codes in the strategy code.
3-) This is a strategy for educational and experimental purposes. It cannot be considered as investment advice. You should be careful and make your own risk assessment when opening real market trades using this strategy.
________________________________________________________
Bu stratejide, daha önce yayınladığım trend avcısı ve vwap ortalamaya geri dönüş stratejilerinin bir kombinasyonunu kullandım.
Sonuçlar özellikle bitcoin için oldukça etkileyici.
Bitcoin için hodl getirisi %13419 iken, stratejinin aynı dönemdeki getirisi bunun yaklaşık 5 katı (%65000) idi.
Bu kombo stratejide, birlikte kullanılan stratejilerin orijinal ayarlarında bazı değişiklikler yaptım ve bazı yeni özellikler ekledim.
Trend Avcısı Strateji Ayarları: (Orijinal / Combo)
- Yavaş Tenkansen Periyodu : 9 / 9
- Yavaş Kijunsen Periyodu : 26 / 13
- Hızlı Tenkansen Periyodu : 5 / 3
- Hızlı Kijunsen Periyodu : 13 / 7
- BB Uzunluğu : 20 / 20
- BB Standart Sapması : 2 / 2
- TSV Uzunluğu : 13 / 20
- TSV Ema Uzunluğu : 7 / 7
* Ayrıca long pozisyon açmak için onay aracı olarak kullanılmak üzere "vidya hareketli ortalama" ekledim. (Mum kapanışı vidya çizgisinin üzerinde olmalıdır.)
Vwap Ortalamaya Dönüş Stratejisi Ayarları: (Orijinal / Combo)
- Küçük Vwap : 2 / 8
- Büyük Vwap : 5 / 10
- Alış İçin Gerekli Fark Oranı : 3 / 2
- RSI Periyodu : 2 / 2
- RSI Ema Periyodu: 5 / 5
- Alış için gerekli maksimum RSI seviyesi : 30
* Stratejinin bu bölümünde pozisyondan çıkışlar için kullanılacak bir "ortalama vwap çizgisi" de ekledim. Orijinal versiyonda, küçük vwap, büyük vwap'ı yukarı kestiğinde pozisyonu kapatıyoruz, ancak bu stratejide, ortalama vwap'ın üzerindeki kapanışı bekleyeceğiz.
İPUÇLARI VE UYARILAR
1-) Bu birleşik stratejinin standart ayarları, günlük zaman dilimi ile tasarlanmış ve test edilmiştir. Daha düşük zaman dilimleri için strateji ayarlarını değiştirmeli ve kendiniz için en iyi değeri bulmalısınız.
2-) Grafikte sadece ortalama vwap çizgisi görüntülenir. Ayrıntılı bir görünüm için strateji kodundaki "plot" ile başlayan satırlarda grafikte görünmesini istediğiniz özelliğin önündeki "//" işaretlerini silebilirsiniz.
3-) Eğitim ve deneysel amaçlı bir stratejidir. Yatırım tavsiyesi olarak değerlendirilemez. Bu stratejiyi kullanarak gerçek piyasa işlem açarken dikkatli olmalı ve kendi risk değerlendirmenizi yapmalısınız.
Mean Reversion Strategy (Double EMA) w Stop LossOne of the strategy inspired by John F. Carter in his book - Mastering the trade. The idea is simple, once the price cross the fast MA (open trade), it will most likely approach the slow MA (close trade). I added an optional filter, which you can turn on to only open position when the distance between the 2 MA is higher or equal than a minimum % that you indicate. Suitable for volatile stocks/markets. Best use when the market is ranging, like any other mean reversion strategy.
Stop Loss feature is also added, with the option to choose from Percentage Stop Loss, Percentage Trailing Stop Loss, ATR Stop Loss or ATR Trailing Stop Loss.
dirt cheap yet elegant RSI StrategyFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets. This is a good way to show off a good looking strategy, atleast in paper, with minimal effort involved in the making and usage. It can be made with the most minimal lines of code if needed to bring shame unto others. It only works in a few markets and who knows if it will actually rebound from the overbought or oversold levels but in case it doesn't I put in a time-based stop to exit in case of that worst case scenario. There's not much to it, good for trolling others, or serious business, you decide.
Bollinger Bands Strategy with Intraday Intensity IndexFor Educational Purposes. Results can differ on different markets and can fail at any time. Profit is not guaranteed.
This only works in a few markets and in certain situations. Changing the settings can give better or worse results for other markets.
This is a mean reversion strategy based on Bollinger Bands and the Intraday Intensity Index (a volume indicator). John Bollinger mentions that the Intraday Intensity Index can be used with Bollinger Bands and is one of the top indicators he recommends in his book. It seems he prefers it over the other volume indicators that he compares to for some reason. III looks a lot like Chaikin Money Flow but without the denominator in that calculation. On the default settings of the BBs, the III helps give off better entry signals. John Bollinger however is vague on how to use the BBs and it's hard to say if one should enter when it is below/above the bands or when the price crosses them. I find that with many indicators and strategies it's best to wait for a confirmation of some sort, in this case by waiting for some crossover of a band. Like most mean reversion strategies, the exit is very loose if using BBs alone. Usually the plan to exit is when the price finally reverts back to the mean or in this case the middle band. This can potentially lead to huge drawdowns and/or losses. Mean reversion strategies can have high win/loss ratios but can still end up unprofitable because of the huge losses that can occur. These drawdowns/losses that mean reversion strategies suffer from can potentially eat away at a large chunk of all that was previously made or perhaps up to all of it in the worst cases, can occur weeks or perhaps up to months after being profitable trading such a strategy, and will take a while and several trades to make it all back or keep a profitable track record. It is important to have a stop loss, trailing stop, or some sort of stop plan with these types of strategies. For this one, in addition to exiting the trade when price reverts to the middle band, I included a time-based stop plan that exits with a gain or with a loss to avoid potentially large losses, and to exit after only a few periods after taking the trade if in profit instead of waiting for the price to revert back to the mean.
GMS: Mean Reversion StrategyThis is based on my GMS: Mean Reversion Indicator ()
Features:
- % Based Profit Target and Stop Loss
- SMA Trend Filter
- Can choose trade exit based off a moving average or linear regression curve
- Filter for long only trades, short only trades, or both at the same time.
Source code is open, so feel free to take a look!
I hope it helps,
Andre
MA strategyTrading strategy on moving averages. Based on Mean reversion. These algorithmic strategies are based on a concept that assumes a regular return of the price to a certain average level, provided that a sufficiently long time distance is considered. The main objective of such strategies is to determine the expected level of price return. Interconnected with Envelopes.
Trend Following or Mean RevertingThe strategy checks nature of the instruments. It Buys if the close is greater than yesterday's high, reverse the position if the close is lower than yesterday's low and repeat the process.
1. If it is trend following then the equity curve will be in uptrend
2. If it is mean reverting then the equity curve will be downtrend
Thanks to Rayner Teo.
Mean Reversion Strategy by KrisWatersThis is a type of mean reversion strategy. It only generates long signals when the price is far away from the mean. It tries buy from the dip. Use it with BTC/USDT pair on 4 hour timeframe.
Global Market Signals: Is the Trend Your Friend? AlgorithmWelcome!
This is a fully customizable strategy to help generate great trade signals as well as provide basic analysis on any market of your choice. All the trades occur at the open of a candle.
Settings:
1. Long or Short
2. Look back length
3. New Highs or New Lows?
4. Trade Duration
5. Trend SMA Length
6. Above or Below Trend SMA
Example:
Using a Daily SPY chart.
The Default Settings are:
1. Long
2. 10
3. New Lows
4. 5
5. 200
6. Above
What this means is that you will be going long when there is a new 10 day lowest close, you'll hold the trade for 5 days, and the trades only occur above the 200 day simple moving average.
**When you test your settings, make sure that in the Properties tab, you have the "Order Size" set at 100 and in the drop down menu to the right, make sure "% of equity" is selected.**
Bollinger Band Strategy (Basic) Version 1 This strategy is for learning purposes only. Pay special attention to these strategies on longer aggregation periods (like 1 hr chart or more). Don't expect accurate results when you set a limit to 10 cents above your entry to be accurate. For example if you set the chart to 1 day, the price may move down and hit a stop 10 times then tag your limit. If this doesn't make sense, just don't use strategies here. Learn more first. That being said, I don't have specific recommendations for each aggregation period, backtesting isn't always perfect.
Now then, this strategy can be used as the traditional BB method by setting the "Stop" and "Limit Out" to like 10000, check "Reversal Entry" and uncheck "Limit Time of Day" This will keep the strategy running just reverse your position when price crosses outside each band.
INPUTS:
Length - length of WMA that I used for mean of Bollinger Band (this may suppose to be SMA, too bad)
Source - O-H-L-C basis for WMA
Deviation - normal Standard deviation that would be set when using Bollinger Band
Trailing stop check box - your stop value will be either a hard stop or trailing stop for an exit
Stop - the stop value - remember you can set this really high and it won't stop out
Limit Out - the limit value for exit
Reversal Entry check box - This changes each entry from a reversal (traditional idea of BB) to enter a trend trade - hopefully version 2 will have choice to trend one direction and reversal in the other.
Limit Time of Day - Especially when trading futures, you may want to only trade a specific time of day, when this box is checked, you can set the entry times below, exit will still only occur based on limit/stop or a flip entry order (the opposite entry condition is met)
Tips:
when I don't know a thing about a price range, like gold. I can set the limit out to 10000 and play with a trailing stop to get a better idea of what is even possible before tuning further.
Fibonacci Camarilla Pivot Points Strategy Prototype
Camarilla pivot points with level 5 and another level 3 based on 1.618 added
Option to toggle regular Camarilla or Fibonacci based Camarilla pivot points
Option to toggle labels, candle overlay, levels, and more
Camarilla pivot points have greatly interested me due to the extremely choppy nature of the cryptocurrency market when it isn't going through a bull run. Camarilla pivot points aren't traditional pivots; the hlc3 of the previous candle close is the basis for each level, as the inventor felt that mean reversion to that previous value was likely.
Farooq: Bollinger Bands StrategyBollinger Band Strategy developed as a service and published for customer verification and acceptance.
If you are interested in development sevices, please either DM me or visit the Backtest Rookies webiste. If you are looking for free and open source scripts, there are some avaible both on the site and our Tradingview profile.
Overview
Bollinger Strategy base
Added additional, customizable 2nd and 3rd deviation levels
Added ability to switch between long only, short only or long & short strategies
Added option to select which deviation level to buy at
Added option to select which deviation level to sell at
Mean-Reversion Swing Trading Strategy v1A port of the TradeStation EasyLanguage code for a mean-revision strategy described at
traders.com
"In “Mean-Reversion Swing Trading,” which appeared in the December 2016 issue of STOCKS & COMMODITIES, author Ken Calhoun
describes a trading methodology where the trader attempts to enter an existing trend after there has been a pullback.
He suggests looking for 50% pullbacks in strong trends and waiting for price to move back in the direction of the trend
before entering the trade."
See Also:
- 9 Mistakes Quants Make that Cause Backtests to Lie (blog.quantopian.com)
- When Backtests Meet Reality (financial-hacker.com)
- Why MT4 backtesting does not work (www.stevehopwoodforex.com)
EMA, SMA Mean ReversionInvite Only: But everyone will be accepted
Invite-only in order to understand demand and interest in this type of strategy. All requests are welcome and will be accepted.
Full Source is available
A blog post containing full source code and commentary of the strategy is available on the backtest-rookies website. To comply with house rules, I cannot post a direct link here. (Hint add ".com" to backtest-rookies)
Overview
The strategy uses two moving averages to represent the historical mean and a slightly smoothed version of the current price action. It will place long or short trades when the fast EMA moves far away from the historical mean (the slow SMA).
Features
Set Backtest Date ranges
Enter when EMA is x% away from the mean
Independent inputs for the long and short side
Only enter when the EMA has started to reverse. (Input)
Optional Stop loss
Limit trades to a single direction to "Buy the dip" or "Sell the top"
Forex Master v4.0 (EUR/USD Mean-Reversion Algorithm)DESCRIPTION
Forex Master v4.0 is a mean-reversion algorithm currently optimized for trading the EUR/USD pair on the 5M chart interval. All indicator inputs use the period's closing price and all trades are executed at the open of the period following the period where the trade signal was generated.
There are 3 main components that make up Forex Master v4.0:
I. Trend Filter
The algorithm uses a version of the ADX indicator as a trend filter to trade only in certain time periods where price is more likely to be range-bound (i.e., mean-reverting). This indicator is composed of a Fast ADX and a Slow ADX, both using the same look-back period of 50. However, the Fast ADX is smoothed with a 6-period EMA and the Slow ADX is smoothed with a 12-period EMA. When the Fast ADX is above the Slow ADX, the algorithm does not trade because this indicates that price is likelier to trend, which is bad for a mean-reversion system. Conversely, when the Fast ADX is below the Slow ADX, price is likelier to be ranging so this is the only time when the algorithm is allowed to trade.
II. Bollinger Bands
When allowed to trade by the Trend Filter, the algorithm uses the Bollinger Bands indicator to enter long and short positions. The Bolliger Bands indicator has a look-back period of 20 and a standard deviation of 1.5 for both upper and lower bands. When price crosses over the lower band, a Long Signal is generated and a long position is entered. When price crosses under the upper band, a Short Signal is generated and a short position is entered.
III. Money Management
Rule 1 - Each trade will use a limit order for a fixed quantity of 50,000 contracts (0.50 lot). The only exception is Rule
Rule 2 - Order pyramiding is enabled and up to 10 consecutive orders of the same signal can be executed (for example: 14 consecutive Long Signals are generated over 8 hours and the algorithm sends in 10 different buy orders at various prices for a total of 350,000 contracts).
Rule 3 - Every order will include a bracket with both TP and SL set at 50 pips (note: the algorithm only closes the current open position and does not enter the opposite trade once a TP or SL has been hit).
Rule 4 - When a new opposite trade signal is generated, the algorithm sends in a larger order to close the current open position as well as open a new one (for example: 14 consecutive Long Signals are generated over 8 hours and the algorithm sends in 10 different buy orders at various prices for a total of 350,000 contracts. A Short Signal is generated shortly after the 14th Long Signal. The algorithm then sends in a sell order for 400,000 contracts to close the 350,000 contracts long position and open a new short position of 50,000 contracts).