Adaptive Mean Reversion IndicatorThe Adaptive Mean Reversion Indicator is a tool for identifying mean reversion trading opportunities in the market. The indicator employs a dynamic approach by adapting its parameters based on the detected market regime, ensuring optimal performance in different market conditions.
To determine the market regime, the indicator utilizes a volatility threshold. By comparing the average true range (ATR) over a 14-period to the specified threshold, it determines whether the market is trending or ranging. This information is crucial as it sets the foundation for parameter optimization.
The parameter optimization process is an essential step in the indicator's calculation. It dynamically adjusts the lookback period and threshold level based on the identified market regime. In trending markets, a longer lookback period and higher threshold level are chosen to capture extended trends. In ranging markets, a shorter lookback period and lower threshold level are used to identify mean reversion opportunities within a narrower price range.
The mean reversion calculation lies at the core of this indicator. It starts with computing the mean value using the simple moving average (SMA) over the selected lookback period. This represents the average price level. The deviation is then determined by calculating the standard deviation of the closing prices over the same lookback period. The upper and lower bands are derived by adding and subtracting the threshold level multiplied by the deviation from the mean, respectively. These bands serve as dynamic levels that define potential overbought and oversold areas.
In real-time, the indicator's adaptability shines through. If the market is trending, the adaptive mean is set to the calculated mean value. The adaptive upper and lower bands are adjusted by scaling the threshold level with a factor of 0.75. This adjustment allows the indicator to be less sensitive to minor price fluctuations during trending periods, providing more robust mean reversion signals. In ranging market conditions, the regular mean, upper band, and lower band are used as they are more suited to capture mean reversion within a confined price range.
The signal generation component of the indicator identifies potential trading opportunities based on the relationship between the current close price and the adaptive upper and lower bands. If the close price is above the adaptive upper band, it suggests a potential short entry opportunity (-1). Conversely, if the close price is below the adaptive lower band, it indicates a potential long entry opportunity (1). When the close price is within the range defined by the adaptive upper and lower bands, no clear trading signal is generated (0).
To further strengthen the quality of signals, the indicator introduces a confluence condition based on the RSI. When the RSI exceeds the threshold levels of 70 or falls below the threshold level of 30, it indicates a strong momentum condition. By incorporating this confluence condition, the indicator ensures that mean reversion signals align with the prevailing market momentum. It reduces the likelihood of false signals and provides traders with added confidence when entering trades.
The indicator offers alert conditions to notify traders of potential trading opportunities. Alert conditions are set to trigger when a potential long entry signal (1) or a potential short entry signal (-1) aligns with the confluence condition. These alerts allow traders to stay informed about favorable mean reversion setups, even when they are not actively monitoring the charts. By leveraging alerts, traders can efficiently manage their time and take advantage of market opportunities.
To enhance visual interpretation, the indicator incorporates background coloration that provides valuable insights into the prevailing market conditions. When the indicator generates a potential short entry signal (-1) that aligns with the confluence condition, the background color is set to lime. This color suggests a bullish trend that is potentially reaching an exhaustion point and about to revert downwards. Similarly, when the indicator generates a potential long entry signal (1) that aligns with the confluence condition, the background color is set to fuchsia. This color represents a bearish trend that is potentially reaching an exhaustion point and about to revert upwards. By employing background coloration, the indicator enables traders to quickly identify market conditions that may offer mean reversion opportunities with a directional bias.
The indicator further enhances visual clarity by incorporating bar coloring that aligns with the prevailing market conditions and signals. When the indicator generates a potential short entry signal (-1) that aligns with the confluence condition, the bar color is set to lime. This color signifies a bullish trend that is potentially reaching an exhaustion point, indicating a high probability of a downward reversion. Conversely, when the indicator generates a potential long entry signal (1) that aligns with the confluence condition, the bar color is set to fuchsia. This color represents a bearish trend that is potentially reaching an exhaustion point, indicating a high probability of an upward reversion. By using distinct bar colors, the indicator provides traders with a clear visual distinction between bullish and bearish trends, facilitating easier identification of mean reversion opportunities within the context of the broader trend.
While the "Adaptive Mean Reversion Indicator" offers a robust framework for identifying mean reversion opportunities, it's important to remember that no indicator is foolproof. Traders should exercise caution and employ risk management strategies. Additionally, it is recommended to use this indicator in conjunction with other technical analysis tools and fundamental factors to make well-informed trading decisions. Regular backtesting and refinement of the indicator's parameters are crucial to ensure its effectiveness in different market conditions.
Forecasting
Correlation TrackerCorrelation Tracker Indicator
The Correlation Tracker indicator calculates and visualizes the correlation between two symbols on a chart. It helps traders and investors understand the relationship and strength of correlation between the selected symbol and another symbol of their choice.
Indicator Features:
- Correlation Calculation: The indicator calculates the correlation between two symbols based on the provided lookback period.
- Correlation Scale: The correlation value is normalized to a scale ranging from 0 to 1 for easy interpretation.
- Table Display: A table is displayed on the chart showing the correlation value and a descriptive label indicating the strength of the correlation.
- Customization Options: Users can customize the text color, table background color, and choose whether to display the Pearson correlation value.
- The Correlation Tracker indicator utilizes a logarithmic scale calculation, making it particularly suitable for longer timeframes such as weekly charts, thereby providing a more accurate and balanced measure of correlations across a wide range of values.
How to Use:
1. Select the symbol for which you want to track the correlation (default symbol is "SPX").
2. Adjust the lookback period to define the historical data range for correlation calculation.
3. Customize the text color and table background color according to your preference.
4. Choose whether to display the Pearson correlation value or a descriptive label for correlation strength.
5. Observe the correlation line on the chart, which changes color based on the strength of the correlation.
6. Refer to the correlation table for the exact correlation value or the descriptive label indicating the correlation strength.
Note: The indicator can be applied to any time frame chart and is not limited to logarithmic scale.
US Market SentimentThe "US Market Sentiment" indicator is designed to provide insights into the sentiment of the US market. It is based on the calculation of an oscillator using data from the High Yield Ratio. This indicator can be helpful in assessing the overall sentiment and potential market trends.
Key Features:
Trend Direction: The indicator helps identify the general trend direction of market sentiment. Positive values indicate a bullish sentiment, while negative values indicate a bearish sentiment. Traders and investors can use this information to understand the prevailing market sentiment.
Overbought and Oversold Levels: The indicator can highlight overbought and oversold conditions in the market. When the oscillator reaches high positive levels, it suggests excessive optimism and a potential downside correction. Conversely, high negative levels indicate excessive pessimism and the possibility of an upside rebound.
Divergence Analysis: The indicator can reveal divergences between the sentiment oscillator and price movements. Divergences occur when the price reaches new highs or lows, but the sentiment oscillator fails to confirm the move. This can signal a potential trend reversal or weakening of the current trend.
Confirmation of Trading Signals: The "US Market Sentiment" indicator can be used to confirm other trading signals or indicators. For instance, if a momentum indicator generates a bullish signal, a positive reversal in the sentiment oscillator can provide additional confirmation for the trade.
Usage and Interpretation:
Positive values of the "US Market Sentiment" indicate a bullish sentiment, suggesting potential buying opportunities.
Negative values suggest a bearish sentiment, indicating potential selling or shorting opportunities.
Extreme positive or negative values may signal overbought or oversold conditions, respectively, and could precede a market reversal.
Divergences between the sentiment oscillator and price trends may suggest a potential change in the current market direction.
Traders and investors can combine the "US Market Sentiment" indicator with other technical analysis tools to enhance their decision-making process and gain deeper insights into the US market sentiment.
Enhanced Strategy (Buy/Sell Signals)The provided script is an enhanced strategy that combines multiple indicators to generate buy and sell signals. Here's a breakdown of its features and usage:
Indicators used:
1. Moving Averages (MA): It uses two moving averages, fast and slow, to identify trend direction.
2. Relative Strength Index (RSI): It measures the momentum and overbought/oversold conditions of the asset.
3. Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD): It indicates trend direction and potential trend reversals.
4. Stochastic Momentum Index (Stch Mtm): It identifies overbought and oversold conditions and potential reversals.
5. Awesome Oscillator: It helps to gauge the market momentum and potential trend changes.
How to use:
1. The strategy is designed to be used as a study on the TradingView platform.
2. Apply the script to your preferred chart and adjust the input parameters as desired.
3. The buy and sell signals will be plotted as green "Buy" and red "Sell" labels on the chart.
4. You can also observe the plotted indicators to gain insights into the market conditions.
Combination of indicators:
1. Buy Signal: The strategy generates a buy signal when the following conditions are met:
- The fast moving average crosses over the slow moving average (bullish crossover).
- RSI value is above the specified threshold (30 by default), indicating potential oversold conditions.
- MACD line is above the signal line, suggesting a bullish trend.
- Stch Mtm is above 50, indicating bullish momentum.
- The Awesome Oscillator is positive, implying bullish market sentiment.
2. Sell Signal: The strategy generates a sell signal when the following conditions are met:
- The fast moving average crosses under the slow moving average (bearish crossover).
- RSI value is below the specified threshold (100 - RSI threshold), indicating potential overbought conditions.
- MACD line is below the signal line, suggesting a bearish trend.
- Stch Mtm is below 50, indicating bearish momentum.
- The Awesome Oscillator is negative, implying bearish market sentiment.
Market conditions:
- The strategy aims to identify potential entry and exit points based on the combination of indicators.
- It can be used in various market conditions, but it's important to consider the overall market context, news events, and risk management principles.
- It's recommended to use this strategy as a tool for analysis and decision-making, and validate the signals with additional analysis before executing trades.
Please note that the effectiveness and profitability of any trading strategy can vary depending on various factors, including market conditions and individual trading preferences. It's always advisable to conduct thorough backtesting and consider risk management techniques before applying any strategy to live trading.
TGIF StatsTGIF - "Thank God it's Friday"
After a heavily bearish week (tuesday, wednesday and thursday) price sometimes looks for some retracement on fridays. Vice versa for bullish weeks.
This script shows how often that specific scenario happens and displays that data in a table.
The user has the option to input a starting year for the statistic and is able to filter between bearish or bullish weeks.
*disclaimer : if paired with a higher timeframe pd array taught by ICT the stats should be better, that's not included in the code though*
⚠️ Open Source ⚠️
Coders and TV users are authorized to copy this code base, but a paid distribution is prohibited. A mention to the original author is expected, and appreciated.
⚠️ Terms and Conditions ⚠️
This financial tool is for educational purposes only and not financial advice. Users assume responsibility for decisions made based on the tool's information. Past performance doesn't guarantee future results. By using this tool, users agree to these terms.
The Golden Candlestick PatternThe Golden pattern is a three-candlestick configuration based on a variation of the golden ratio (2.618) from the Fibonacci sequence.
The bullish Golden pattern is composed of a normal bullish candlestick with any type of body, followed by a bigger bullish candlestick with a close price that is at least 2.618 times the size of the first candlestick (high to low). Finally, there must be an important condition that is, a third candlestick that comes back to test the open of the second candlestick from where the entry is given.
The bearish Golden pattern is composed of a normal bearish candlestick with any type of body, followed by a bigger bearish candlestick with a close price that is at least 2.618 times the size of the first candlestick (high to low). Finally, there must be an important condition that is, a third candlestick that comes back to test the open of the second candlestick from where the entry is given.
Inverted ProjectionThe "Inverted Projection" indicator calculates the Simple Moving Average (SMA) and draws lines representing an inverted projection. The indicator swaps the highs and lows of the projection to provide a unique perspective on price movement.
This indicator is a simple study that should not be taken seriously as a tool for predicting future price movements; it is purely intended for exploratory purposes.
Pro Trading Art - Head And ShouldersHow the Script Works:
1. The script identifies potential Head and Shoulders patterns by searching for specific pivot highs and pivot lows in the price data.
2. It checks for the presence of a left shoulder, head, and right shoulder based on the conditions defined in the script.
3. If a valid Head and Shoulders pattern is found, the script plots lines and labels on the chart to visualize the pattern.
4. The script also identifies Inverted Head and Shoulders patterns using similar logic but with different conditions.
5. It plots lines and labels for the Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.
6. The script generates short and long conditions based on the patterns. Short conditions trigger when the close price crosses below the neck level of a Head and Shoulders pattern, while long conditions trigger when the close price crosses above the neck level of an Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern.
7. It plots sell and buy signal shapes on the chart when the short and long conditions are met, respectively.
8. The script can also trigger alerts to notify the user when a valid Head and Shoulders or Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is detected.
9. The script provides visual cues on the chart to help users identify potential trading opportunities.
10. The logic and parameters of the script can be modified by the user to customize the behavior and adapt it to different trading strategies.
How Users Can Make Profit Using This Script:
1. Identify potential short-selling opportunities: When a valid Head and Shoulders pattern is detected and a short condition is met, it indicates a potential trend reversal. Traders can consider opening short positions to profit from a downward price movement.
2. Identify potential long-buying opportunities: When a valid Inverted Head and Shoulders pattern is detected and a long condition is met, it suggests a potential trend reversal. Traders can consider opening long positions to profit from an upward price movement.
3. Combine with additional analysis: Users can utilize this script as a tool in their overall trading strategy. They can combine the signals generated by the script with other technical indicators, fundamental analysis, or market sentiment to make more informed trading decisions.
4. Define appropriate entry and exit points: Traders can use the lines and labels plotted by the script to determine entry and exit points for their trades. For example, they may choose to enter a short position after the price crosses below the neck level and exit when the price reaches a predetermined target or when the pattern is invalidated.
5. Set risk management measures: It is important for users to implement proper risk management strategies when trading based on the script's signals. They should define stop-loss orders to limit potential losses if the trade goes against them and consider setting profit targets to secure profits when the trade moves in their favor.
Ultimate Trend LineThe "Ultimate Trend Line" indicator, designed for overlay on financial charts, calculates and plots a global trend line. It works by first allowing users to input several parameters such as different lengths for up to 21 groups, a multiplier that defines the deviation from the linear regression line for calculating the upper and lower bands, and a color for the fill.
Using these inputs, it calculates the upper and lower bands for each length group based on a multiple of the standard deviation from the linear regression line. It then averages these bands to define the global trend line, which is plotted on the graph.
Although the code includes commented-out lines for plotting each individual upper and lower band, the indicator as it stands only displays the overall average trend line. The line's color and linewidth can be adjusted according to user preferences.
This indicator can be effectively used on both logarithmic and linear scales. This versatility allows it to be adaptable to various types of financial charts and trading styles, providing a flexible tool for users to assess and visualize trend patterns across different market conditions and time frames. It maintains its accuracy and relevance, regardless of the scale used, thus making it a comprehensive solution for trend line analysis in diverse scenarios.
It's important to note that the "Ultimate Trend Line" indicator requires a substantial amount of historical data to function properly. If insufficient historical data is available, the indicator may not display accurately or at all. This issue is particularly prevalent when using larger time units, such as weekly or monthly charts, where the available data may not stretch back far enough to satisfy the requirements of the indicator. As such, users should ensure they are operating on a time scale and data set that provides adequate historical depth for the reliable operation of this indicator.
Exponential ADR with Price TargetsThis script is designed to help you analyze price movements in the financial markets by calculating the Average Daily Range (ADR), adjusting it based on exponentiality and generating price targets based on that range.
The ADR represents the average range between the highest and lowest prices of a trading instrument during a specific period. It gives you an idea of how much the price typically moves in a day. In this script, we calculate the ADR using Simple Moving Averages (SMA) of the high and low prices over a certain length of time. You can customize this length according to your preference.
To make the ADR smoother and more responsive to recent price changes, we apply an Exponential Moving Average (EMA) to the ADR values. The EMA places more weight on recent data, giving you a more up-to-date measure of the ADR. The length of the EMA is also adjustable.
Once we have the Exponential ADR, we can generate price targets based on it. Price targets are potential levels where the price may reach in the future. We calculate these targets by adding or subtracting a certain multiple of the Exponential ADR from the current closing price. The multiple is determined by a parameter called the "Target Multiplier." You can adjust this value to control the distance of the price targets from the closing price.
In addition to plotting the Exponential ADR as a histogram on the chart, we create a table that displays the price targets. The table shows three bullish (positive) targets and three bearish (negative) targets. The targets are labeled as "Bull Target" or "Bear Target" followed by a number indicating the target's order. For each target, we display the corresponding price level.
To estimate the potential price levels, we used a formula that takes into account the current closing price and a value called the Exponential Average Daily Range (Exponential ADR). The Exponential ADR represents the average range of price movement over a specific period.
To calculate the price targets, we multiplied the Exponential ADR by a user-defined value called the target multiplier. This target multiplier allows traders to control the distance of the price targets from the current price. The resulting value indicates the desired distance from the current price for each target level.
For bullish targets, we added the calculated value to the current closing price. This suggests potential upward movement in the price. On the other hand, for bearish targets, we subtracted the calculated value from the current closing price. This indicates potential downward movement in the price.
By providing multiple target levels, such as level 1, level 2, and level 3, traders can assess different scenarios and potential price outcomes. These target levels help traders identify possible price levels where they might consider taking profit or adjusting their trading positions.
It's important to note that these price targets are not guaranteed to be reached, but they serve as reference points based on historical price behavior and the Exponential ADR. Traders can use them as part of their overall trading strategy and decision-making process.
Adjust the input parameters according to your desired settings, such as the ADR length, EMA length, target multiplier, table position, and table style. The indicator will then calculate and display the Exponential ADR and price targets on the chart, helping you identify potential levels of support and resistance for your trading decisions.
Matrix Momentum Expansion [IkkeOmar]The indicator consists of several features:
Candlestick chart: The indicator plots a candlestick chart based on the input parameters of the user. The candlesticks are colored blue or orange depending on whether the closing price is above or below the upper and lower bands.
Support and Resistance levels: The indicator also plots support and resistance levels based on the CCI (Commodity Channel Index) of the asset's price. These levels are dynamic and change based on the user's input parameters.
Momentum: The indicator calculates the momentum of the market based on the smoothed and standard deviation of the asset's price. It uses this momentum to calculate upper and lower bands that are plotted on the chart.
Warning signals: The indicator can also be used to identify potential warning signals. When the closing price of the asset moves above the upper band, it could indicate that the market is overbought and a potential reversal could occur. Conversely, when the closing price moves below the lower band, it could indicate that the market is oversold and a potential reversal could occur.
Contractions and expansions in the bands can provide important information to traders about potential price movements.
When the bands contract, it indicates that the market is experiencing low volatility and the price is likely to move sideways. During these periods, traders may look for other signals, such as support and resistance levels or price patterns, to determine potential entry and exit points.
On the other hand, when the bands expand, it indicates that the market is experiencing high volatility and the price is likely to move in a particular direction. Traders can use this information to identify potential trend reversals or continuation patterns. When the upper and lower bands move further apart, it indicates that the trend is becoming stronger, while when they move closer together, it indicates that the trend may be weakening.
When the price moves outside of the bands, it can also provide important information to traders. If the price moves above the upper band, it could indicate that the market is overbought and a potential reversal could occur. Conversely, if the price moves below the lower band, it could indicate that the market is oversold and a potential reversal could occur.
Very important note!
When you see contractions, please understand that it's a wonderful opportunity to pivot into position to catch a good trade because we will see an expansion after!
Bull Bear Correlation Tracker PaneThe Bull Bear Correlation Tracker is a versatile indicator designed to help traders identify the direction and strength of market trends by comparing the price action of multiple assets. It is particularly useful for those who are familiar with the carry trade principle, as it can detect when positively or negatively correlated assets move in favor or against the asset being traded. This indicator can be used for various markets, including crypto and forex, by simply adjusting the default options.
Key features of the Bull Bear Correlation Tracker include:
Multiple methods for determining trend direction: Supertrend, Pivot Point SuperTrend by LonesomeTheBlue, MACD - Zero Cross, and MACD - Grow/Shrink. These methods help traders identify the primary trend direction and potential trade opportunities.
Optional slow trend display for additional insights into market trends, allowing traders to analyze both short-term and long-term trends simultaneously.
Supports up to three symbols, enabling traders to analyze multiple assets simultaneously and better understand their correlation.
Assumed correlation settings to test traders' hypotheses about asset relationships, allowing traders to make informed decisions about potential correlations between different assets.
Customizable correlation period and smoothing settings to fine-tune the indicator's performance, providing traders with the ability to optimize the indicator based on their preferred trading style and market conditions.
Market hours filter to focus on specific trading hours, ensuring that the indicator only displays data during the hours specified.
Customizable color settings for easy visualization of trends, helping traders quickly identify the direction and strength of market trends.
Correlation histogram display to visualize asset relationships, providing traders with a clear visual representation of how different assets are correlated.
This indicator can be used to either force the correlation to be assumed positive or negative if the trader knows the correlation, or to use the actual data calculated between the traded asset and other assets if the correlation is broken often. This flexibility makes the Bull Bear Correlation Tracker suitable for trading various assets, including cryptocurrencies and forex, as well as for traders with different levels of experience.
By utilizing the Bull Bear Correlation Tracker, traders can gain valuable insights into market trends and correlations between different assets, helping them make more informed decisions and improve their trading strategies.
Note: I used back-testing for fine tuning do not base your trades on signals from the testing framework.
Price Action Color Forecast (Expo)█ Overview
The Price Action Color Forecast Indicator , is an innovative trading tool that uses the power of historical price action and candlestick patterns to predict potential future market movements. By analyzing the colors of the candlesticks and identifying specific price action events, this indicator provides traders with valuable insights into future market behavior based on past performance.
█ Calculations
The Price Action Color Forecast Indicator systematically analyzes historical price action events based on the colors of the candlesticks. Upon identifying a current price action coloring event, the indicator searches through its past data to find similar patterns that have happened before. By examining these past events and their outcomes, the indicator projects potential future price movements, offering traders valuable insights into how the market might react to the current price action event.
The indicator prioritizes the analysis of the most recent candlesticks before methodically progressing toward earlier data. This approach ensures that the generated candle forecast is based on the latest market dynamics.
The core functionality of the Price Action Color Forecast Indicator:
Analyzing historical price action events based on the colors of the candlesticks.
Identifying similar events from the past that correspond to the current price action coloring event.
Projecting potential future price action based on the outcomes of past similar events.
█ Example
In this example, we can see that the current price action pattern matches with a similar historical price action pattern that shares the same characteristics regarding candle coloring. The historical outcome is then projected into the future. This helps traders to understand how the past pattern evolved over time.
█ How to use
The indicator provides traders with valuable insights into how the market might react to the current price action event by examining similar historical patterns and projecting potential future price movements.
█ Settings
Candle series
The candle lookback length refers to the number of bars, starting from the current one, that will be examined in order to find a similar event in the past.
Forecast Candles
Number of candles to project into the future.
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Disclaimer
The information contained in my Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems does not constitute financial advice or a solicitation to buy or sell any securities of any type. I will not accept liability for any loss or damage, including without limitation any loss of profit, which may arise directly or indirectly from the use of or reliance on such information.
All investments involve risk, and the past performance of a security, industry, sector, market, financial product, trading strategy, backtest, or individual's trading does not guarantee future results or returns. Investors are fully responsible for any investment decisions they make. Such decisions should be based solely on an evaluation of their financial circumstances, investment objectives, risk tolerance, and liquidity needs.
My Scripts/Indicators/Ideas/Algos/Systems are only for educational purposes!
hidden & regular rsi divergenceThis is a divergence indicator that draws regular and hidden divergences based on the Zigzag indicator and RSI indicator. There are two degrees of Zigzag. So, in each Zigzag degree, there are two types of regular divergences and one type of hidden divergence.
👉(The logic is written in case of a bearish regular divergence. The opposite will apply for a bullish one.)
Type 1 of regular divergence (Logic 1):
Zigzag has to form a higher high. The highest RSI within both Zigzag legs must form lower highs, but the RSI values which are exactly at the Zigzag highs should not form lower highs.
Type 2 of regular divergence (Logic 2):
Zigzag has to form a higher high. The highest RSI within both Zigzag legs must form lower highs, and the RSI values which are exactly at the Zigzag highs should form lower highs.
👉(The logic is written in case of a bearish hidden divergence. The opposite will apply for a bullish one.)
Zigzag has to form a lower high. The highest RSI within both Zigzag legs must form higher highs.
👉There is also a filter that will be applied to all the divergences. It only shows the divergences whose corresponding RSI value was above/below a level (overbought level/oversold level).
Logic for regular divergences:
Bearish regular divergence's first high's (leftmost) RSI value should be greater than or equal to 70.
Bullish regular divergence's first low's (leftmost) RSI value should be less than or equal to 30.
Logic for hidden divergences:
Bearish hidden divergence's second high's (rightmost) RSI value should be greater than or equal to 70.
Bullish hidden divergence's second low's (rightmost) RSI value should be less than or equal to 30.
👉There is another feature also. This indicator colors the background based on whether the RSI is in a bullish or bearish range.
If it's within 80-60, the background will be colored green (this means that RSI is in a bullish range).
If it's within 40-20, the background will be colored red (this means that RSI is in a bearish range).
Weekly and daily separatorsThis script plots vertical line between each trading week (thick, solid) and smaller lines (dotted) between each trading day. This helps kepping a better overview on the aspect of time on the higher timeframes below 1D. The distance of the lines to the top and bottom of the chart is controlled by your chart settings menu under Appearance -> Margins.
ICT SessionsThis script plots the timewindows of the ICT killzones (for forex) and trading session + makros below the chart. Individual components can be switched of to your liking
ICT MakrosThis script highlights the ICT trading makros and silverbullet timewindows with different background colors on your chart. The drawings are only visible on the timeframe 1min - 5min because they become useless above and i didnt code the logic for below 1min
Simple Moving Average Extrapolation via Monte Carlo (SMAE)In this post, I will dive into my Moving Average Extrapolator, a tool that I created to help traders predict future price movements based on past data. I will discuss the underlying logic, its limitations, and the importance of accounting for delays in the moving average. The following code, my Moving Average Extrapolator, will serve as the basis for our discussion.
The Moving Average Extrapolator uses a simple moving average (SMA) to analyze past price movements and make predictions about future price movements. It uses a Monte Carlo simulation to generate possible future price movements based on historical probabilities.
Let's start by understanding the different components of the code:
The movement_probability function calculates the probability of green and red price movements, where green movements indicate an increase in price, and red movements indicate a decrease in price.
The monte function generates an array of potential price movements using a Monte Carlo simulation.
The sim function uses the generated Monte Carlo array to simulate potential future price movements based on the probabilities calculated earlier.
The draw_lines function draws lines connecting the current price to the extrapolated future price movements.
The extrapolate function calculates the extrapolated future price movements based on the provided source, length, and accuracy.
Limitations of My Moving Average Extrapolator:
Reliance on historical data: My Moving Average Extrapolator relies heavily on historical data to make future price predictions. This can be a limitation, as past performance does not guarantee future results. Market conditions can change, making the extrapolator less reliable in predicting future price movements.
Inherent randomness: The Monte Carlo simulation introduces an element of randomness in the extrapolator's predictions. While this can help in exploring various scenarios, it may not always accurately predict future price movements.
Delay in the moving average: Moving averages inherently have a delay, as they are based on past data. This delay can cause my Moving Average Extrapolator to be less accurate in predicting immediate price movements.
Accounting for Delays in the Moving Average:
It is essential to account for the delay in the moving average to improve the accuracy of my Moving Average Extrapolator. I have taken this into account by introducing a delay variable (delay) in the draw_lines function. The delay variable calculates the delay as half the moving average's length and adjusts the time axis accordingly.
This adjustment helps in reducing the lag in the extrapolator's predictions, making it more accurate and useful for traders. However, it is important to note that even with this adjustment, my Moving Average Extrapolator is still subject to the limitations discussed earlier.
Adding Custom Lookback Period to My Moving Average Extrapolator:
To enhance the functionality and adaptability of my Moving Average Extrapolator, I have implemented an option to set a custom lookback period. The lookback period determines how far back in the historical data the Moving Average Extrapolator should start its analysis.
To achieve this, I have included a method to obtain the current bar index and then calculate the starting bar index by subtracting the desired lookback period.
Here's how to implement the custom lookback period in the Moving Average Extrapolator:
Get the current bar index: I use the bar_index built-in variable to get the current bar index, which represents the current position in the historical data.
Set the start index: To set the start index, you can subtract the desired lookback period from the current bar index. In the code, I have defined a user-input number variable, which can be set to the desired lookback period. By default, it is set to 20800. The starting index for the Moving Average Extrapolator's analysis is calculated as bar_index - number.
Here's the relevant code snippet:
number = input.int(20800, "Bar Start")
And to conditionally run the calculations:
if bar_index > number
draw_lines(avg, extrapolate(close, length, 10), length, extrapolate)
By implementing this custom lookback period, users can easily adjust the starting point of the Moving Average Extrapolator based on their preferences and trading strategies. This allows for more flexibility and adaptability to different market scenarios and ensures that the Moving Average Extrapolator remains a valuable tool for traders.
Conclusion:
My Moving Average Extrapolator can be a valuable tool for traders looking to predict future price movements based on historical data. However, it is essential to understand its limitations and the need to account for the delay in the moving average. By considering these factors, traders can make better-informed decisions and use my Moving Average Extrapolator to complement their trading strategies effectively.
BankNifty targets using VIX Version 2Original Idea Credit: Verified Market Waves
Hi,
After watching different videos online on how to get targets of BankNifty & Nifty decided to write this small script using VIX.
Nothing great but I really like the concept of getting high and low targets for the day or weekly or monthly or yearly.
What does the script do
1. We get closing of India Vix & BankNifty and Nifty
2. We get square root of Daily (365 days) | Weekly (52) | Monthly (12) & Yearly (1)
3. We divide India Vix closing with different square root to get a decimal value.
4. We use the derived value from step 3 which is used as % to calculate high and low values on BankNifty close price.
Small explanation via below screen shot to understand how to use it.
As always it comes with source code so you can modify as per your requirement.
Hope it helps 👍
SuperTrend Long Strategy +TrendFilterThis strategy aims to identify long (buy) opportunities in the market using the SuperTrend indicator. It utilizes the Average True Range (ATR) and a multiplier to determine the dynamic support levels for entering long positions. This presentation will provide an overview of the strategy's components, explain its usage, and highlight that it focuses on long trades.
Components of the Strategy:
1. ATR Period: This input determines the period used for calculating the Average True Range (ATR). A higher value may result in smoother trend lines but may lag behind recent price changes.
2. Source (src): This input determines the price source used for calculations, with "hl2" (the average of high and low prices) set as the default.
3. ATR Multiplier: This input specifies the multiplier applied to the ATR value to determine the distance of the support levels from the source.
4. Change ATR Calculation Method: This input allows toggling between two methods of ATR calculation: the default method using atr() or a simple moving average (SMA) of ATR values (sma(tr, Periods)).
5. Show Buy/Sell Signals: This input enables or disables the display of buy and sell signals on the chart.
6. Highlighter On/Off: This input controls whether highlighting of up and down trends is displayed on the chart.
7. Bar Coloring On/Off: This input determines whether the bars on the chart are colored based on the trend direction.
8. The "SuperTrend Long STRATEGY" has been enhanced by incorporating a trend filter. A moving average is used as the filter to confirm the prevailing trend before executing trades. This addition effectively reduces false signals and improves the strategy's reliability, all while maintaining its original name.
Strategy Logic:
1. The strategy calculates the upper (up) and lower (dn) trend lines based on the ATR value and the chosen multiplier.
2. The trend variable keeps track of the current trend, with 1 indicating an uptrend and -1 indicating a downtrend.
3. Buy and sell signals are generated based on the change in trend direction.
4. The strategy includes an optional highlighting feature that colors the chart background based on the current trend.
5. Additionally, the bar coloring feature colors the bars based on the direction of the last trend change.
Usage:
1. ATR Period and ATR Multiplier can be adjusted based on the desired sensitivity and risk tolerance.
2. Buy and sell signals can be displayed using the Show Buy/Sell Signals input, providing clear indications of entry and exit points.
3. The Highlighter On/Off input allows users to visually identify the prevailing trend by coloring the chart background.
4. The Bar Coloring On/Off input offers a quick visual reference for the most recent trend change.
Long Strategy:
The SuperTrend Long Strategy is specifically designed to identify long (buy) opportunities. It generates buy signals when the current trend changes from a downtrend to an uptrend, indicating a potential entry point for long positions. The strategy aims to capture upward price movements and maximize profits during bullish market conditions.
The SuperTrend Long Strategy provides traders with a systematic approach to identifying long trade opportunities. By leveraging the SuperTrend indicator and dynamic support levels, this strategy aims to generate buy signals in uptrending markets. Traders can customize the inputs and utilize the visual features to adapt the strategy to their specific trading preferences.
The modification adds a trend filter to the "SuperTrend Long STRATEGY" to improve its effectiveness. The trend filter uses a moving average to confirm the prevailing trend before taking trades. This addition helps filter out false signals and enhances the strategy's reliability without changing its name.
Price Extrapolator with Std DeviationPrice Extrapolator with Deviation Cones - A Powerful Tool for Predicting Future Prices
Subtitle: Discover how this custom indicator can help you forecast potential price movements with greater accuracy, using historical data.
Introduction
Predicting future price movements is always a challenge for traders and investors. However, by using historical data and statistical analysis, it is possible to make educated guesses about the likelihood of certain outcomes. One such tool for predicting future prices is the Price Extrapolator with Standard Deviation Cones. This custom indicator, can help you visualize potential price movements and their associated risks.
In this post, we will explain how the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones works, how to adjust its settings to suit your needs, and how to interpret its output. By the end of this article, you should have a better understanding of how this powerful tool can help you make more informed decisions when trading or investing in financial markets.
Understanding the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a custom indicator that uses historical price data to calculate the average log return and standard deviation of log returns over a specified period. It then uses this information to extrapolate a series of future price points, as well as upper and lower standard deviation bands that form the "deviation cones."
The average log return represents the expected price change, while the standard deviation of log returns provides a measure of the uncertainty or risk associated with the prediction. The deviation cones can help you visualize the range of potential price movements and assess the likelihood of different outcomes.
Configuring the Indicator
To use the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, you will need to configure several input settings:
1. Length: This setting determines the number of historical data points used to calculate the average log return and standard deviation of log returns. A higher value will produce a smoother, less sensitive indicator, while a lower value will make the indicator more responsive to recent price changes.
2. Number of Future Price Points: This setting controls the number of future price points to extrapolate. Increasing this value will extend the deviation cones further into the future.
3. Multiplier: This setting adjusts the tightness of the deviation cones by controlling the standard deviation multiplier. A higher value will result in wider cones, indicating greater uncertainty, while a lower value will produce narrower cones, suggesting more confidence in the prediction.
Interpreting the Output
After configuring the indicator, you will see the following output on your chart:
1. Green Line: This line represents the extrapolated future price points based on the average log return. It provides a central estimate of potential price movements.
2. Red Lines: These lines form the upper and lower bounds of the deviation cones. They represent the range of potential price movements, taking into account the uncertainty associated with the prediction.
When using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, it is essential to remember that the output is only a prediction based on historical data and should not be taken as a guarantee of future price movements. However, by providing a visual representation of potential price movements and their associated risks, this indicator can help you make more informed decisions when trading or investing in financial markets.
The Extreme Limitations of the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones
While the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can be a valuable addition to your trading toolbox, it is essential to recognize its limitations. As with any forecasting tool, it is not infallible and should be used in conjunction with other forms of analysis. In this section, we will discuss the extreme limitations of this indicator and provide insight into how to use it effectively despite these constraints.
1. Reliance on Historical Data
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones relies heavily on historical price data to make its predictions. While this can provide valuable insights into past trends and patterns, it may not accurately predict future price movements in a constantly changing market.
Market conditions can change rapidly, and historical data may not be a reliable indicator of future performance. Economic events, geopolitical tensions, and changes in market sentiment can all influence price movements in ways that may not be captured by historical data alone.
2. Assumption of Lognormal Distribution
The indicator assumes that price returns follow a lognormal distribution, which may not always be the case. Financial markets can exhibit skewness and kurtosis, resulting in distributions that are not symmetrical or normally distributed. This can lead to inaccurate predictions and a false sense of security when relying on the deviation cones.
3. No Consideration of Fundamental Factors
The Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a purely technical analysis tool, meaning it does not take into account fundamental factors that can influence price movements. Changes in company earnings, interest rates, or economic data can significantly impact asset prices and may not be factored into the indicator's predictions.
4. Limited Time Horizon
The indicator only provides predictions for a limited number of future price points, which may not be sufficient for long-term investors or traders with longer holding periods. Additionally, the accuracy of the predictions may decrease as the time horizon extends, due to the compounding effects of uncertainty and the limitations of historical data.
5. Potential for Overfitting
When adjusting the settings of the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones, there is a risk of overfitting the model to the historical data. This can result in an indicator that appears to have excellent predictive power on past data but performs poorly on unseen, future data. It is crucial to be cautious when optimizing the settings and use out-of-sample testing to validate the indicator's performance.
Using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones Effectively
Despite these limitations, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can still be a valuable tool when used correctly. To use this indicator effectively, consider the following tips:
1. Supplement with Other Forms of Analysis: Use the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones alongside other technical and fundamental analysis methods to gain a more comprehensive understanding of potential price movements.
2. Diversify your Trading Strategies: Do not rely solely on the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones for your trading decisions. Instead, diversify your strategies and consider multiple indicators and methods to reduce the risk of overreliance on a single tool.
3. Be Cautious with Optimized Settings: When adjusting the indicator's settings, be mindful of the risk of overfitting and validate the performance with out-of-sample testing.
4. Keep an Eye on Market Conditions: Stay informed about current market conditions, economic events, and news that may impact your trading decisions. This will help you make more informed decisions when using the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones.
In conclusion, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones is a powerful and versatile tool that can aid traders and investors in predicting potential future price movements. However, it is crucial to remember that this indicator has its limitations, which stem from its reliance on historical data, the assumption of lognormal distribution, its disregard for fundamental factors, limited time horizons, and the potential for overfitting. Despite these constraints, when used correctly and in conjunction with other forms of analysis, the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones can provide valuable insights and assist in making more informed trading and investing decisions.
By understanding the underlying mechanics of the indicator, adjusting its settings according to your needs, and being aware of its limitations, you can incorporate the Price Extrapolator with Deviation Cones into your trading arsenal effectively. Always remember that no single tool or indicator is infallible, and it is essential to use a diverse range of analysis methods and strategies to navigate the ever-changing financial markets successfully. Happy trading!
Potential Gain/Loss IndicatorThis indicator calculates the gains and losses in percentage based on the highest high (ATH) and lowest low (ATL) of a given period. It takes the period as an input parameter and calculates the ATH and ATL within that period.
The indicator then calculates the potential gains in percentage if the price goes back to the ATH, as well as the potential losses in percentage if the price goes back to the ATL.
A filled area chart is plotted to show the difference between gains and losses (gains - losses) using a stepline, with green color when positive and red color when negative. The coefficient parameter allows for adjusting the scale of the gains and losses.
# Parameters
1. `period` (integer): The period used for calculating the highest high (ATH) and lowest low (ATL) within the given range. The default value is 50, and the user can select any value greater than or equal to 1.
2. `coef` (float): A coefficient to adjust the scale of the gains and losses. The default value is 0.5, and the user can select any value greater than or equal to 0.1.
Fibonacci Retracements & Trend Following Strategy Hello! This code creates a Fibonacci retracement indicator and a trend-following strategy indicator. Trading signals and price reversal targets are also calculated. The overall structure of the code is quite clear and readable. The purpose of the code is to calculate Fibonacci retracement levels and a trend-following indicator, display price levels on a chart, calculate trading signals, and calculate price reversal targets.
In the first section, Fibonacci levels are determined. Four different Fibonacci levels are defined: 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.786. These levels will be used as retracement levels.
Next, a trend-following indicator is calculated. This indicator calculates the averages of high and low prices over a certain period. This indicator can be used to determine the direction of the trend.
Then, price levels are calculated. These levels are determined by calculating the difference between the highest and lowest prices of the trend-following indicator. These levels are used in the calculation of Fibonacci retracement levels.
Next, Fibonacci levels are calculated. These levels are calculated by multiplying price levels with Fibonacci retracement levels. These levels are displayed on the chart.
Trading signals and price reversal targets are calculated. This can be used to trade using a Fibonacci retracement strategy.
Finally, price reversal targets are displayed as circles on the chart.
Usage Guide: Fibonacci Retracement Indicator and Trend Following Strategy
This indicator is used for calculating Fibonacci retracement levels and a trend following indicator, displaying price levels on the chart, calculating trading signals, and determining price targets for reversals. It is important to understand how the indicator works and what type of trading signals it generates before trading with it.
1.)Fibonacci Retracement Levels
Fibonacci retracement levels are used to measure the retracement levels of a trend on the chart. These levels can be used where traders are looking for a reversal signal in the market.
This indicator uses four different Fibonacci levels, which are 0.236, 0.382, 0.618, and 0.786. These levels will be used as retracement levels.
2.)Trend Following Indicator
The trend following indicator calculates the averages of high and low prices over a specific period. This indicator can be used to determine the direction of the trend. While showing a rising trend, it helps the prices stay high, and when showing a falling trend, it can help the prices stay low.
3.)Price Levels
Price levels are determined by calculating the difference between the highest and lowest prices of the trend following indicator. These levels are used to calculate Fibonacci retracement levels.
4.)Trading Signals and Price Reversal Targets
Trading signals and price reversal targets can be used to trade using a Fibonacci retracement strategy. The indicator can buy at Fibonacci levels where prices are retreating in an uptrend, and sell at Fibonacci levels where prices are retreating in a downtrend.
Price reversal targets are shown on the chart in circles.
5.)Fibonacci Retracement Targets
The Fibonacci retracement targets are shown in circles on the chart. These target price levels are calculated by applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the high and low price ranges. These levels can help determine buy or sell signals.
6.)Buy and Sell Signals
The most important feature of the indicator is to determine buy and sell signals. A buy signal is given when the trend-following indicator falls below one of the Fibonacci retracement levels and the price drops below it. A sell signal is given when the trend-following indicator rises and the price goes above one of the Fibonacci retracement levels.
7.)Target Price Levels
Using the retracement levels can be used to determine potential target price levels. Target price levels are determined based on Fibonacci retracement levels and positions can be closed when these levels are reached.
8.)Examples of Using the Indicator:
a) Buy Signal
If the trend-following indicator drops below the 0.618 Fibonacci retracement level and the price falls below it, a buy signal can be given. The target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels.
b) Sell Signal
If the trend-following indicator rises and the price goes above the 0.236 Fibonacci retracement level, a sell signal can be given. The target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.618 Fibonacci retracement levels.
c) Target Price Levels
When a position is opened, target price levels can be determined based on Fibonacci retracement levels. For example, when opening a buy position, the target price level can be between the 0.382 and 0.236 Fibonacci retracement levels.
The use of the indicator can be made more effective by using it together with other technical analysis tools. In addition, practical experimentation with the use of the indicator in different scenarios can help understand how the indicator works.
