RTH Breaks + Midnight ConfluenceWHAT IT DOES
RTH Breaks classifies each trading day at the 9:30 AM ET open into one of three scenarios based on where price opens relative to yesterday's Regular Trading Hours (RTH) range:
- Gap Up: RTH opens above prior RTH high
- Gap Down: RTH opens below prior RTH low
- Inside Day: RTH opens within prior RTH range
It then checks the midnight open (00:00 ET) as a confluence filter to determine whether the overnight session confirms or conflicts with the day's scenario. The combination produces a directional bias with a conviction rating.
LEVELS PLOTTED
- Prior RTH High and Low (horizontal lines)
- Prior RTH Midline (midpoint of yesterday's RTH range)
- Midnight Open (00:00 ET price)
- Prior RTH Session Box (shaded rectangle showing yesterday's 9:30-16:00 range)
- Current RTH Session Box (developing box for today's session)
All levels, labels, boxes, and styles are fully configurable through inputs.
HOW THE CONFLUENCE WORKS
The indicator evaluates midnight alignment for each scenario:
Gap Up days:
- Midnight above prior RTH high = confirms (overnight participated in the breakout)
- Midnight in the upper half of prior range = neutral (overnight leaned bullish)
- Midnight below midline = conflicts (overnight did not participate)
Gap Down days:
- Midnight below prior RTH low = confirms
- Midnight in the lower half = neutral
- Midnight above midline = conflicts
Inside days:
- Both RTH open and midnight on the same side of the midline = confirms (double confirmation)
- RTH open and midnight on opposite sides = conflicts
CONVICTION LEVELS
Based on the alignment, the indicator assigns a conviction:
- HIGH: Midnight confirms the scenario. Strongest directional edge.
- MODERATE: Gap down with neutral midnight. Edge exists but thinner.
- REDUCED: Inside day with midnight conflict. Bias drops significantly.
- SKIP: Gap up with midnight conflict. Reversal risk is elevated.
- LOW: Gap down with midnight conflict.
- MAGNET: Inside day where midnight is parked near the opposite pRTH boundary (within 20% of range). The midline directional bias is overridden -- the indicator flips direction toward the boundary midnight is near.
THE MAGNET OVERRIDE (INSIDE DAYS)
On inside days, when the RTH open and midnight conflict AND midnight is within 20% of the pRTH range from the opposite boundary, the midline bias is neutralized. For example: RTH opens above the midline (normally bullish), but midnight sits near the prior RTH low. The standard 2.9x long bias drops to approximately 1.0x. The indicator detects this and flips the direction toward the magnet boundary.
This effect was observed consistently on NQ and ES. GC (Gold) is less affected by the magnet override due to stronger trend persistence.
THE TABLE
A confluence table displays:
- Scenario classification (Gap Up / Gap Down / Inside)
- RTH open position vs midline
- Midnight position vs midline
- Alignment status (confirms / conflicts)
- Conviction level
- Directional bias (Long / Short)
- Edge description
- Breakout probability (inside days: 81-84% break at least one boundary)
- Magnet warning (when applicable)
The table supports Dark, Light, Transparent, and Custom themes.
METHODOLOGY AND BACKTEST BASIS
The conviction levels, directional statistics, and magnet override thresholds are derived from a cross-asset probability study:
- Instruments: NQ (Nasdaq 100), ES (S&P 500), GC (Gold)
- Period: 2016 to 2026 (10 years)
- Total trading days analyzed: approximately 5,700
- Data: 1-minute bars, New York timezone
- RTH definition: 9:30 AM to 4:00 PM ET
Key findings from the study:
Gap days: When the RTH open gaps outside yesterday's range and midnight confirms the gap direction, 67-80% of days close on the gap side. When midnight conflicts, reversal rates increase from 8-16% to 19-35% depending on instrument.
Inside days: When both RTH open and midnight are on the same side of the midline, the directional bias ratio is 2.4x to 3.5x toward the nearer boundary. When they conflict, the ratio drops to 1.6x to 2.9x.
Magnet override: When midnight is within 20% of range from the opposite boundary on a conflict day, the bias ratio drops to approximately 1.0x on NQ (effectively flat). This was tested across multiple threshold levels (10%, 15%, 20%, 25%, 30%) and the effect was stable.
Boundary containment: 86-93% of gap up days never breach the prior RTH low. 87-93% of gap down days never breach the prior RTH high. This containment rate improves when midnight confirms.
HOW TO USE IT
1. Apply the indicator to any intraday chart (1-minute to 60-minute) of NQ, ES, or GC futures.
2. Before or at 9:30 AM ET, the table displays "waiting" until the RTH open classifies the day.
3. At the RTH open, check the Scenario, Direction, and Conviction fields.
4. HIGH conviction with a clear direction = strongest setup. SKIP or LOW = elevated risk.
5. On inside days, watch for the MAGNET conviction -- this overrides the midline direction.
6. Use the prior RTH high/low as targets and the midline as a reference for position within the range.
The indicator works on any instrument with US RTH hours (9:30-16:00 ET), but the statistical edge descriptions in the table are calibrated for NQ, ES, and GC. On other instruments, a note appears in the table header.
INPUTS
Levels: Toggle pRTH High/Low, Midline, Midnight Open, and Labels independently. Label size is configurable.
Session Boxes: Toggle prior RTH and current RTH session boxes. Box fill and border colors are configurable.
Line Style: Width and style (Solid/Dashed/Dotted) for each level type.
Table: Position (four corners), size, and theme (Dark/Light/Transparent/Custom with full color control).
Colors: Independent color inputs for High, Low, Midline, Midnight, Bullish signals, and Bearish signals.
TIMEFRAME RESTRICTION
This indicator is restricted to intraday charts of 60 minutes or less. Higher timeframes (2H, 4H, Daily) smear session boundaries and produce unreliable midnight anchoring. The indicator will display an error if applied to an unsupported timeframe.
ALERTS
Six alert conditions are available:
- Gap Up HIGH conviction
- Gap Up SKIP
- Gap Down HIGH conviction
- Gap Down LOW conviction
- Inside Day Double Confirm (HIGH)
- Inside Day Conflict (REDUCED)
- Inside Day Magnet Override
All alerts fire at the RTH open bar (9:30 AM ET).
Indicador Pine Script®






















