NQ × ES SMT Panel — Ace v3.5

NQ × ES SMT Panel — Ace v3.5 (6-Year Model)

This panel reads the 10:45 → 11:00 ET window on NQ and checks for sweeps of the 10:45 candle with SMT confirmation from ES.
It then shows you direction, quality of the signal, and 6-year follow-through stats.

🕒 Recommended Use

Chart: NQ / MNQ

Timeframe: 15-minute

Session: New York (focus on 10:45 and 11:00 ET)

ES symbol input: default ES1! (can be changed in settings)

The script only “makes decisions” on the 11:00 candle close.

🔍 What the Model Looks For
1. NQ Sweep of 10:45 Candle

Bull Sweep (Long bias)

11:00 low < 10:45 low

11:00 close > 10:45 low

Bear Sweep (Short bias)

11:00 high > 10:45 high

11:00 close < 10:45 high

This means: price took liquidity beyond 10:45, then closed back inside.

2. ES SMT Filter (Confirmation)

Bullish SMT

NQ does a bull sweep (takes the low)

ES does NOT make a lower low vs its own 10:45 low

Bearish SMT

NQ does a bear sweep (takes the high)

ES does NOT make a higher high vs its own 10:45 high

If NQ sweeps but ES doesn’t follow, you have SMT and a stronger signal.

📋 Panel Fields (What You See)

The panel is 4 rows, 1 column:

Header
NQ × ES SMT — Ace v3.5 | [Status] | Score: [0–5★]

Status can be:

BULLISH SMT

BEARISH SMT

Bull Sweep

Bear Sweep

No Signal

Sweep Direction

Sweep Direction: LONG ↑

Sweep Direction: SHORT ↓

- when no signal

Follow-Through Text

For SMT:

Bullish → High Odds 60-100 Handle Move

Bearish → High Odds 40-80 Handle Move

For pure sweeps:

Normal Follow-through

For no signal: blank

6-Year Stats Line
Shows how often the move reached 40/60/80 handles in the modeled direction:

Example (Bullish SMT):
SMT Stats (6y): 40h=64%, 60h=51%, 80h=41%

Example (Bearish SMT):
SMT Stats (6y): 40h=58%, 60h=42%, 80h=29%

Sweeps without SMT show Sweep Stats (6y): …

No signal: Stats: n/a

⭐ Score Meaning

5★ → SMT present (A+ setup)

3★ → Clean sweep, no SMT (B setup)

0★ → No valid sweep (NO-GO)

Use the score + stats line to decide if the idea deserves risk today.

📈 How to Trade It (Conceptual)

Wait for 11:00 candle to close.

Check panel:

If BULLISH SMT, 5★ → bias long.

If BEARISH SMT, 5★ → bias short.

If Bull/Bear Sweep, 3★ → optional, lower priority.

If No Signal, 0★ → stand aside.

Use your own execution model for entries:

Look for FVG/OB setups in the direction the panel confirms.

Targets can be based on your handle objectives (e.g., 40–80 handles) and intraday structure.

⚠️ Important Notes

Panel is a bias and stats tool, not an auto-entry system.

Works best on regular trading days (avoid major news spikes if you choose).

All stats are based on a 6-year historical lookback on NQ vs ES in this exact 10:45→11:00 structure.