OPEN-SOURCE SCRIPT
Guassian Distribution Forecast [prediction intervals]
The Indicator
The Indicator combines volatility and frequency distributions to forecast an area of possible price expansion with an approximate confidence interval / level and level of significance (significance level).
The Script Formula
Additional comments
To alter the models forecasting precision to reflect a given confidence interval, e.g the 90% confidence level (C.L.), use the 1.64 multiplier (toggle value in "Standard normal distribution sd" setting), to use a specific C.L., e.g. the 85th percentile either search for this on google, or calculate it yourself using a Standard Normal Distribution Probability table. Additionaly volatility may be changed by toggling the lookback period setting, this can be thought of as widening the distribution tails.
The look forward parameter is currently fixed at 20, this is because it does not currently work correctly with higher integers, I will try resolve this problem and any other bugs as soon as possible
The Indicator combines volatility and frequency distributions to forecast an area of possible price expansion with an approximate confidence interval / level and level of significance (significance level).
The Script Formula
Additional comments
To alter the models forecasting precision to reflect a given confidence interval, e.g the 90% confidence level (C.L.), use the 1.64 multiplier (toggle value in "Standard normal distribution sd" setting), to use a specific C.L., e.g. the 85th percentile either search for this on google, or calculate it yourself using a Standard Normal Distribution Probability table. Additionaly volatility may be changed by toggling the lookback period setting, this can be thought of as widening the distribution tails.
The look forward parameter is currently fixed at 20, this is because it does not currently work correctly with higher integers, I will try resolve this problem and any other bugs as soon as possible
Script de código abierto
Siguiendo fielmente el espíritu de TradingView, el autor de este script lo ha publicado en código abierto, permitiendo que otros traders puedan entenderlo y verificarlo. ¡Olé por el autor! Puede utilizarlo de forma gratuita, pero tenga en cuenta que la reutilización de este código en la publicación se rige por las Normas internas. Puede añadir este script a sus favoritos y usarlo en un gráfico.
¿Quiere utilizar este script en un gráfico?
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones que ofrecemos, no implican ni constituyen un asesoramiento financiero, ni de inversión, trading o cualquier otro tipo de consejo o recomendación emitida o respaldada por TradingView. Puede obtener información adicional en las Condiciones de uso.