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BTC - RVPM: Run Velocity & Probability Map
BTC – RVPM: Run Velocity & Probability Map | RM
Strategic Context: Understanding Price Runs
A "Price Run" (also known as a streak or consecutive sessions) is a foundational concept in time-series analysis that measures the duration of a price movement without a significant counter-signal. While common indicators like RSI or MACD measure magnitude or momentum, they often ignore the Persistence of the trend. Historically, markets move through cycles of expansion and mean-reversion. A Price Run represents a period of "Unidirectional Flow" — a fingerprint of institutional accumulation or systematic distribution. However, standard "run-counting" is often too simplistic for the volatile crypto markets.
What Makes RVPM Special?
Most community run-counters are binary; they simply tell you if X days were green or red. The RVPM distinguishes itself through three proprietary layers:
• The Intensity Filter: It doesnt just count days; it counts effort. By ignoring "flat" days through a percentage-return threshold, it filters out noise that would otherwise skew the statistical probability.
• Dynamic Benchmarking: Instead of using an arbitrary number (like "7 days"), the RVPM looks back at 200 bars of history to find the local "Persistence Ceiling." It adapts to the current volatility regime of Bitcoin.
• The Velocity Score: It transform simple counts into a -100 to +100 histogram, allowing traders to see momentum "decaying" (e.g., dropping from 90 to 70) even if the price continues to rise.
The 3 Pillars of the Engine
1. Velocity Mapping (Persistence Histogram)
The histogram calculates the density of directional effort within a defined window. It functions as the "Pulse" of the trend, mapping market behavior into three distinct zones:
• High Velocity Zone (> 80 or < -80): Institutional Expansion. This identifies a "clean" move where one side of the market possesses total structural control. In this zone, the trend is efficient, and counter-signals are immediately absorbed.
• The Neutral Zone (Near Zero): Momentum Equilibrium. When the histogram fluctuates near the zero line, the market is in a "Recharge Phase." Neither bulls nor bears are achieving persistent dominance. Tactically, this is the "Waiting Room" where range-bound chop is likely, and traders should wait for a new "Expansion" spike before committing.
• Velocity Decay: The Exhaustion Warning. Velocity Decay occurs when the indicator moves from an extreme (e.g., +95) back toward the zero line (e.g., +50) while the price is still rising. This is a "Persistence Divergence." It tells you that while the trend is still moving, the consistency of the bars is fragmenting. The "fuel" is being depleted, and the trend is transitioning from an "Institutional Expansion" into a "Speculative Exhaustion."
2. n-of-m Consistency (The Pips)
The "Pips" (Circles) mark when a specific consistency threshold is met (e.g., 5 out of 7 bars in one direction). This identifies "Leaky Trends" that are still statistically dominated by one side of the ledger.
3. Statistical Exhaustion (The Arrows)
The Dark Red (Top) and Dark Green (Bottom) triangles represent the engine's "Mean-Reversion Signal." The calculation is based on a Relative Maximum Streak (RMS) logic: the script tracks the current linear, consecutive bar count (ignoring bars that fail the Intensity Filter) and continuously benchmarks this against the highest streak recorded over the last 200 bars (ta.highest(streak, 200)). The triangles are triggered specifically when the current run reaches 80% of this historical record (the "Anomaly Threshold"). Mathematically, this identifies a move that is statistically pushing against its half-year limit. By using this dynamic threshold rather than a fixed number, the "Extreme" signal automatically tightens during low-volatility regimes and expands during high-volatility expansions, ensuring the signal only appears when the "statistical rubber band" is at a true breaking point.
Operational Interface: The RVPM Dashboard
The Status Dashboard (Top Right) serves as a real-time monitor for momentum health, providing a clean summary of the underlying persistence data:
• Current STREAK: The active, consecutive count of bars meeting the Intensity Filter. It is dynamically color-coded (Cyan/Bullish or Red/Bearish) to provide an instant read on trend seniority.
• WINDOW Consistency: Measures the Momentum Density (the n-of-m value). A value of "6" in a "7-bar" window indicates a high-conviction regime that is successfully absorbing pullbacks without losing its primary trajectory.
Tactical Playbook: The Mean-Reversion Rule
Price action typically follows a "Rubber Band" effect. The further it is stretched without a break, the more "unstable" the trend becomes as the pool of available buyers or sellers is depleted.
• The Setup: Wait for the Triangle Arrows to appear.
• The Logic: The move has reached a 200-day anomaly. A "Liquidity Vacuum" is forming on the opposite side.
• The Action: This is a high-probability Mean-Reversion signal. It is a tactical time to take profits or look for a sharp snap-back move toward the 20-period moving average or the "Institutional Mean."
Settings & Parameters
• Window Length (m): The lookback window used to calculate the Velocity Score.
• Required Days (n): The minimum number of directional bars needed within the window to trigger a "Consistency Pip."
• Intensity Filter (%): The minimum % change required for a bar to be counted toward a run.
• Lookback Period: The historical window (Default: 200 bars) used to calculate the "Maximum Streak" records for exhaustion alerts.
Timeframe Recommendation
The RVPM is best viewed on the Daily (1D) timeframe. This filters out intraday noise and provides the most reliable statistical mapping for macro exhaustion points.
Credits & Verification
The RVPM logic aligns with institutional "Persistence" models and Glassnode's Price Stretch benchmarks. By benchmarking against a rolling 200-day window, the indicator automatically adapts to changing market volatility.
Risk Disclaimer & No Financial Advice
The information, data, and analytical models provided in this publication are for educational and informational purposes only. This script does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments carries a high degree of risk, and statistical anomalies or "Extreme Runs" do not guarantee future price action. Past performance is never indicative of future results. Every trader is responsible for their own due diligence and risk management. Rob Maths and the associated entities are not liable for any financial losses incurred through the use of this tool. Always consult with a certified financial professional before making significant investment decisions.
Tags:
bitcoin, btc, persistence, streaks, price-runs, momentum, mean-reversion, exhaustion, Rob Maths
Strategic Context: Understanding Price Runs
A "Price Run" (also known as a streak or consecutive sessions) is a foundational concept in time-series analysis that measures the duration of a price movement without a significant counter-signal. While common indicators like RSI or MACD measure magnitude or momentum, they often ignore the Persistence of the trend. Historically, markets move through cycles of expansion and mean-reversion. A Price Run represents a period of "Unidirectional Flow" — a fingerprint of institutional accumulation or systematic distribution. However, standard "run-counting" is often too simplistic for the volatile crypto markets.
What Makes RVPM Special?
Most community run-counters are binary; they simply tell you if X days were green or red. The RVPM distinguishes itself through three proprietary layers:
• The Intensity Filter: It doesnt just count days; it counts effort. By ignoring "flat" days through a percentage-return threshold, it filters out noise that would otherwise skew the statistical probability.
• Dynamic Benchmarking: Instead of using an arbitrary number (like "7 days"), the RVPM looks back at 200 bars of history to find the local "Persistence Ceiling." It adapts to the current volatility regime of Bitcoin.
• The Velocity Score: It transform simple counts into a -100 to +100 histogram, allowing traders to see momentum "decaying" (e.g., dropping from 90 to 70) even if the price continues to rise.
The 3 Pillars of the Engine
1. Velocity Mapping (Persistence Histogram)
The histogram calculates the density of directional effort within a defined window. It functions as the "Pulse" of the trend, mapping market behavior into three distinct zones:
• High Velocity Zone (> 80 or < -80): Institutional Expansion. This identifies a "clean" move where one side of the market possesses total structural control. In this zone, the trend is efficient, and counter-signals are immediately absorbed.
• The Neutral Zone (Near Zero): Momentum Equilibrium. When the histogram fluctuates near the zero line, the market is in a "Recharge Phase." Neither bulls nor bears are achieving persistent dominance. Tactically, this is the "Waiting Room" where range-bound chop is likely, and traders should wait for a new "Expansion" spike before committing.
• Velocity Decay: The Exhaustion Warning. Velocity Decay occurs when the indicator moves from an extreme (e.g., +95) back toward the zero line (e.g., +50) while the price is still rising. This is a "Persistence Divergence." It tells you that while the trend is still moving, the consistency of the bars is fragmenting. The "fuel" is being depleted, and the trend is transitioning from an "Institutional Expansion" into a "Speculative Exhaustion."
2. n-of-m Consistency (The Pips)
The "Pips" (Circles) mark when a specific consistency threshold is met (e.g., 5 out of 7 bars in one direction). This identifies "Leaky Trends" that are still statistically dominated by one side of the ledger.
3. Statistical Exhaustion (The Arrows)
The Dark Red (Top) and Dark Green (Bottom) triangles represent the engine's "Mean-Reversion Signal." The calculation is based on a Relative Maximum Streak (RMS) logic: the script tracks the current linear, consecutive bar count (ignoring bars that fail the Intensity Filter) and continuously benchmarks this against the highest streak recorded over the last 200 bars (ta.highest(streak, 200)). The triangles are triggered specifically when the current run reaches 80% of this historical record (the "Anomaly Threshold"). Mathematically, this identifies a move that is statistically pushing against its half-year limit. By using this dynamic threshold rather than a fixed number, the "Extreme" signal automatically tightens during low-volatility regimes and expands during high-volatility expansions, ensuring the signal only appears when the "statistical rubber band" is at a true breaking point.
Operational Interface: The RVPM Dashboard
The Status Dashboard (Top Right) serves as a real-time monitor for momentum health, providing a clean summary of the underlying persistence data:
• Current STREAK: The active, consecutive count of bars meeting the Intensity Filter. It is dynamically color-coded (Cyan/Bullish or Red/Bearish) to provide an instant read on trend seniority.
• WINDOW Consistency: Measures the Momentum Density (the n-of-m value). A value of "6" in a "7-bar" window indicates a high-conviction regime that is successfully absorbing pullbacks without losing its primary trajectory.
Tactical Playbook: The Mean-Reversion Rule
Price action typically follows a "Rubber Band" effect. The further it is stretched without a break, the more "unstable" the trend becomes as the pool of available buyers or sellers is depleted.
• The Setup: Wait for the Triangle Arrows to appear.
• The Logic: The move has reached a 200-day anomaly. A "Liquidity Vacuum" is forming on the opposite side.
• The Action: This is a high-probability Mean-Reversion signal. It is a tactical time to take profits or look for a sharp snap-back move toward the 20-period moving average or the "Institutional Mean."
Settings & Parameters
• Window Length (m): The lookback window used to calculate the Velocity Score.
• Required Days (n): The minimum number of directional bars needed within the window to trigger a "Consistency Pip."
• Intensity Filter (%): The minimum % change required for a bar to be counted toward a run.
• Lookback Period: The historical window (Default: 200 bars) used to calculate the "Maximum Streak" records for exhaustion alerts.
Timeframe Recommendation
The RVPM is best viewed on the Daily (1D) timeframe. This filters out intraday noise and provides the most reliable statistical mapping for macro exhaustion points.
Credits & Verification
The RVPM logic aligns with institutional "Persistence" models and Glassnode's Price Stretch benchmarks. By benchmarking against a rolling 200-day window, the indicator automatically adapts to changing market volatility.
Risk Disclaimer & No Financial Advice
The information, data, and analytical models provided in this publication are for educational and informational purposes only. This script does not constitute financial, investment, or trading advice. Trading cryptocurrencies and other financial instruments carries a high degree of risk, and statistical anomalies or "Extreme Runs" do not guarantee future price action. Past performance is never indicative of future results. Every trader is responsible for their own due diligence and risk management. Rob Maths and the associated entities are not liable for any financial losses incurred through the use of this tool. Always consult with a certified financial professional before making significant investment decisions.
Tags:
bitcoin, btc, persistence, streaks, price-runs, momentum, mean-reversion, exhaustion, Rob Maths
Script de código abierto
Fiel al espíritu de TradingView, el creador de este script lo ha convertido en código abierto, para que los traders puedan revisar y verificar su funcionalidad. ¡Enhorabuena al autor! Aunque puede utilizarlo de forma gratuita, recuerde que la republicación del código está sujeta a nuestras Normas internas.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading o de otro tipo proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Más información en Condiciones de uso.
Script de código abierto
Fiel al espíritu de TradingView, el creador de este script lo ha convertido en código abierto, para que los traders puedan revisar y verificar su funcionalidad. ¡Enhorabuena al autor! Aunque puede utilizarlo de forma gratuita, recuerde que la republicación del código está sujeta a nuestras Normas internas.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading o de otro tipo proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Más información en Condiciones de uso.