VIX and SKEW RSI Moving Averages

20 abr

SKEW and VIX are both indicators of market volatility and risk, but they represent different aspects.

VIX (CBOE Volatility Index):.
The VIX is a well-known indicator for predicting future market volatility. It is calculated primarily based on S&P 500 options premiums and indicates the degree of market instability and risk.
Typically, when the VIX is high, market participants view the future as highly uncertain and expect sharp volatility in stock prices. It is generally considered an indicator of market fear.
SKEW Index:.
The SKEW is a measure of how much market participants estimate the risk of future declines in stock prices, calculated by the CBOE (Chicago Board Options Exchange) and derived from the premium on S&P 500 options.
If the SKEW is high, market participants consider the risk of future declines in stock prices to be high. This generally indicates a "fat tail at the base" of the market and suggests that the market perceives it as very risky.
These indicators are used by market participants to indicate their concerns and expectations about future stock price volatility. In general, when the VIX is high and the SKEW is high, the market is considered volatile and risky. Conversely, when the VIX is low and the SKEW is low, the market is considered relatively stable and low risk.

Inverse Relationship between SKEW and VIX
It is often observed that there is an inverse correlation between SKEW and VIX. In general, the relationship is as follows

High VIX and low SKEW: When the VIX is high and the SKEW is low, the market is considered volatile while the risk of future stock price declines is low. This indicates that the market is exposed to sharp volatility, but market participants do not expect a major decline.
Low VIX and High SKEW: A low VIX and high SKEW indicates that the market is relatively stable, while the risk of future declines in stock prices is considered high. This indicates that the market is calm, but market participants are wary of a sharp future decline.
This inverse correlation is believed to be the result of market participants' psychology and expectations affecting the movements of the VIX and SKEW. For example, when the VIX is high, it is evident that the market is volatile, and under such circumstances, people tend to view the risk of a sharp decline in stock prices as low. Conversely, when the VIX is low, the market is considered relatively stable and the risk of future declines is likely to be higher.

SKEWVIX RSIMACROSS
In order to compare the trends of the SKEW and VIX, the 50-period moving average of the Relative Strength Index (RSI) was used for verification. the RSI is an indicator of market overheating or overcooling, and the 50-period moving average can be used to determine the medium- to long-term trend. This analysis reveals how the inverse correlation between the SKEW and the VIX relates to the long-term moving average of the RSI.


how to use

Moving Average Direction
Rising blue for VIXRSI indicates increased uncertainty in the market
Rising red for SKEWRSI indicates optimism and beyond

RSI moving average crossing
When the SKEW is dominant, market participants are considered less concerned about a black swan event (significant unexpected price volatility). This suggests that the market is stable and willing to take risks. On the other hand, when the VIX is dominant, it indicates increased market volatility. Investors are more concerned about market uncertainty and tend to take more conservative positions to avoid risk. The direction of the moving averages and the crossing of the moving averages of the two indicators can give an indication of the state of the market.
SKEW>VIX Optimistic/Goldilocks
VIX>SKEW Uncertainty/turbulence
The market can be judged as follows.

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