LTPI BTC | JeffreyTimmermans

Long-Term Trend Probability Indicator

The "Long-Term Trend Probability Indicator" on BTC is a custom-built tool designed to analyze BTC from a long-term perspective. Unlike short-term indicators that react to price volatility, LTPI focuses on major trend shifts on BTC, and therefore across the entire crypto market, helping to identify major trend shifts early.

This version of the LTPI is applied to BTC, making it a BTC specific trend following tool, but very broad (crypto wise), because BTC is the biggest asset.

Key Features

Long-Term Focus:

• Designed for macro market analysis with less sensitivity to short-term noise.
  

8 Input Signals:

• Combines 8 carefully selected inputs (trend following indicators) into a single score that reflects the overall market condition.
  

Market Regimes:

Classifies the BTC trend into:

• Bullish: Strong uptrend, expansion phase
  
• Bearish: Strong downtrend, contraction phase
  
• Neutral: Transitional or uncertain
  

Visual Background:

• Background colors clearly display which regime is active.
  

Comprehensive Dashboard:

• The panel at the bottom shows each input’s state, the composite LTPI score, and the resulting market trend.
  

How It Works

Inputs Analysis:

Each of the 8 inputs outputs one of three states:

• +1 (Bullish)
  
• -1 (Bearish)
  
• 0 (Neutral)
  

Score Calculation:

The total score is the sum of all 8 input signals divided by 8.

• Score > 0.1 = Bullish
  
• Score < -0.1 = Bearish
  
• Between -0.1 and 0.1 = Neutral
  

Background Coloring:

Background colors dynamically adjust to reflect the long-term market regime.

Use Cases

Long-Term Positioning:

• Identify periods of global expansion or contraction to position yourself accordingly.
  

Macro Confirmation:

• Use LTPI in combination with medium-term (MTPI) and short-term tools for multi-timeframe confirmation.
  

Market Timing:

• Alerts when LTPI crosses key thresholds help highlight the start of major bullish or bearish phases.
  

Dynamic Alerts:

• Bullish Entry: LTPI score crosses above 0.1
  
• Bearish Entry: LTPI score crosses below -0.1
  
• Neutral Zone: Score moves back between -0.1 and 0.1
  

Conclusion

The Long-Term Trend Probability Indicator (LTPI – BTC) is a powerful tool for identifying long-term market phases across the entire crypto ecosystem. By focusing on long term trends and combining 8 inputs into a single probability score, it provides a clear macro trend perspective for strategic decision-making.