BTC vs US2000 – Correlation (BarDai)

📉 Bottom Panel — BTC vs US2000 Correlation

This panel measures how synchronized BTC and US2000 are moving right now.

Correlation range: +1.00 … -1.00

Correlation Value Meaning Market Behavior
+0.5 to +1.0 Strong Positive Correlation BTC and US2000 move together (same direction)
0.0 to +0.5 Weak/Neutral Positive Similar direction but unstable
0.0 to -0.5 Weak Negative Early decoupling — BTC may lead
-0.5 to -1.0 Strong Negative Correlation BTC and US2000 move opposite ways — risk divergence
🧠 Why this is important?

Correlation shows whether the ratio movement is reliable.

✔ Valid Risk Signal

If:

Ratio = Risk-ON

AND Correlation is positive

→ BTC rising with equities → strong confirmation
→ You can trust the Risk-ON regime

⚠️ Risk Divergence (Decoupling)

If:

Ratio = Risk-ON

BUT Correlation drops into negative

→ BTC is pumping alone, not backed by global risk
→ Breakout is weaker / can fail

This often happens before trend reversals.

🟡 Yellow “Decoupling Dots”

These appear when correlation is low but volatility is high.

They indicate:

Market tension

Possible rotation of capital

Early warning of shift

➡ Good for catching reversals early, but never alone — must confirm with the Ratio crossover.

🔍 Practical Usage Summary
What you see Interpretation Strategy
Ratio above EMA + Correlation > 0 Global Risk-ON Favor BTC longs
Ratio below EMA + Correlation > 0 Global Risk-OFF Protective mode
Ratio > EMA but Correlation < 0 Fake Risk-ON Reduce risk, wait
Strong negative correlation Markets diverging Look for reversal signals
🎯 Main Message

Correlation tells you how trustworthy the risk regime is.

The ratio tells who leads
The correlation tells whether the move is real

Together → a powerful institutional macro signal 🔥