QFA Volatility Meter

QFA Volatility Meter

This is a technical indicator I built to measure market fear and identify potential bottom reversal setups in liquid ETFs and stocks. It combines multiple technical factors into a single scoring system. This is a new indicator with limited real-world testing so treat it as experimental.

What It Actually Does

The indicator calculates a fear index based on how far price has dropped from the highest close over the past 14 bars. It then applies zero lag EMA smoothing with a 5-period setting to reduce noise. The fear reading gets adjusted based on ATR percentile rank with the theory being that high volatility drops should register as more significant than low volatility drops.

On top of this base fear calculation, the indicator checks for five additional factors: momentum peaks where fear stops accelerating upward, RSI divergence using a 7-period RSI, support levels that have been tested multiple times in the past 50 bars, volume patterns including spikes and rejection wicks, and point of control using a 30-bar volume profile calculation. Each factor that triggers adds points to a score from 0 to 100.

The histogram bars change color based on whether fear is rising or falling. Red means fear is increasing, green means decreasing. Gold colors appear when the score crosses certain thresholds: bright gold for scores above 40, orange for scores above 30, pale gold for scores above 20. There is a table in the upper right showing the current score, raw fear level, volatility regime, and which components are active.

The Core Problem You Need To Know

This indicator has a fundamental lag issue that I have not yet solved. Because it measures price drops over a 14 bar lookback period, it is calculating what already happened rather than what is happening right now. During fast selloffs you will often see the fear level reading very low like 5 or 10 even though price is clearly crashing in real time. The reading catches up eventually but by then you have missed the entry by 10 to 20 bars.

I attempted to fix this with ATR normalization and faster smoothing but the lookback period remains the main bottleneck. The indicator works better at identifying areas where fear has already peaked and is starting to decline than at catching the exact moment of peak fear. This makes it more useful for confirmation than for timing entries.

What Works

The multi-component scoring system does a decent job of filtering out low quality setups. When you get a high score above 50 or 60 with multiple components firing like divergence plus support plus volume, those tend to be legitimate reversal zones worth paying attention to. The color coding is intuitive and easy to read at a glance. The real-time table helps you understand what is triggering without having to decode the chart.
The volume climax detection catches some extreme bottoms where you see three or more bars of increasing volume combined with panic selling. These can mark capitulation points. The multi-touch support logic does add value by distinguishing between random price levels and actual tested support zones.
The indicator handles changes in volatility reasonably well. During low volatility periods it lowers the threshold so you still get some signals. During high volatility it raises the threshold to filter noise. This dynamic adjustment is better than using a fixed threshold across all market conditions.

What Does Not Work

The lag issue means you will frequently see obvious selloffs where the indicator shows nothing. Fear level of 5 during a 3 percent drop is not useful information. This happens because the lookback window is too long and the smoothing further delays the reading.

The gold signals that are supposed to mark high conviction bottoms often do not trigger when you expect them to. Looking at recent price action you can point to clear bottoms where the indicator stayed gray or showed low scores. This is partly the lag and partly because the scoring system requires multiple components to align which does not always happen at actual bottoms.

The indicator has only been tested on 15 minute QQQ charts during a few weeks of data. I do not know how it performs on other timeframes, other instruments, or during different market regimes like strong trends versus ranges. It may work very differently on individual stocks versus ETFs or on 5 minute versus 1 hour charts.

There is no formal backtest data showing win rate, average gain, maximum drawdown, or any other performance metrics. The scoring thresholds and component weights were set based on visual inspection and intuition rather than systematic optimization. They might be completely wrong.

Real Risks If You Use This

If you trade based on gold signals alone you will get caught in falling knives. The indicator does not know the difference between a normal pullback in an uptrend versus a breakdown that keeps going. You need your own analysis of market structure, key levels, and trend direction.
The lag means you will often be late to entries. By the time a gold signal appears price may have already bounced 1 to 2 percent off the low. This eats into your risk reward ratio. You might be buying near resistance when you think you are buying near support.

False signals happen regularly especially during choppy sideways action. You will see early and building signals that never develop into actual reversals. If you take every signal you will get chopped up.

The indicator can give conflicting information where the histogram shows green bars indicating fear is falling but the score is still low. Or red bars with a high score. This happens because color tracks momentum direction while score tracks absolute conditions. It is confusing in real time.

The volume profile calculations reset every 30 bars so the POC level jumps around. This can cause the POC component to trigger at seemingly random times. The value area high and low have similar issues.

Honest Pros and Cons

Pros: Combines multiple factors instead of relying on one signal. Color coded for quick visual assessment. Shows component breakdown so you understand why score is high or low. Includes volatility regime context. Free and customizable. Works in TradingView.
Cons: Significant lag during fast moves. No proven track record or backtest results. Complex with many moving parts that can conflict. Requires additional analysis to use effectively. Will produce false signals and missed opportunities. Thresholds and weights are arbitrary. Only tested on limited data.

How Someone Might Actually Use This

If you wanted to use this indicator despite its limitations here is a realistic approach. Keep it on your chart as one input among several. When price drops to a logical support level that you have identified independently, check if the indicator is showing elevated fear and building score. If fear level is above 60 and score is above 30 and you like the price action, that adds a bit of confirmation to your setup.

Do not take trades based solely on gold signals. Do not expect it to call exact bottoms. Do not use it in isolation. Think of it like a momentum oscillator that has some additional context baked in. It might help you avoid buying when there is no fear which means no panic to fade. But it will not tell you when to buy with any precision.

You would need to set your stop losses based on price structure not based on the indicator. Manage position size appropriately because this tool does not reduce risk. Keep records of which signals worked and which failed so you can learn its actual behavior rather than what you hope it does.

Settings Guidance

The default threshold of 40 seems reasonable for 15 minute charts in normal volatility. Going lower will increase signals but also increase noise. Going higher will reduce signals and may cause you to miss opportunities. I do not have data to recommend optimal settings.
The smoothing period of 5 is a compromise between responsiveness and stability. Lower numbers like 3 will be jumpier. Higher numbers like 7 will be smoother but slower. Again no data on what works best.

You can disable components if you want simpler scoring. For example if you only care about divergence and support you can turn off volume and POC. This will make scores lower overall but more focused on specific patterns.

Development Status

This indicator was built in a few hours as an experiment. It has not gone through rigorous testing or optimization. There are known issues that need fixing particularly the lag problem. I may continue developing it or I may abandon it. No guarantees on updates or support.
The code is provided as is. If you modify it or break it that is on you. The calculations could have bugs I have not found. The logic might be flawed in ways I have not realized.

Bottom Line

This is an experimental multi-factor fear indicator with significant limitations including lag, untested performance, and complexity. It might provide some useful context when combined with solid price action analysis and risk management. It will not make you money by itself. It will produce false signals and miss real opportunities. Use it as supplementary information at best and do not rely on it for trading decisions without your own analysis. If you use it, track results carefully and be skeptical of what it tells you until you have proven to yourself that it adds value to your process.