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Elliott Wave Risk Metric
This indicator combines two complementary risk engines into a single framework. Engine A (the BTC Risk Metric) produces a normalized 0–1 risk line by measuring Bitcoin’s logarithmic distance from a long-term trend (a 377-day simple moving average), scaled by time to account for Bitcoin’s exponential growth. This core line is excellent at identifying low-risk accumulation zones near major cycle bottoms and provides a consistent, regime-aware baseline that allows different market cycles to be compared on the same scale.
Engine B evolves the model by adding an Elliott Wave– and Fibonacci-based extension framework. Instead of relying on momentum or trend deviation, it measures how far price has extended from meaningful local and macro anchor lows, using prior impulse lengths as the projection unit. These extensions are mapped into Fibonacci risk zones and converted into a 0–1 extension risk score. The plotted line remains Engine A’s core risk, but its colour is driven by a weighted blend of Engine A and Engine B (default 30% / 70%), allowing late-cycle price peaks—especially fifth waves—to correctly display elevated risk even when momentum is fading.
Why the Bitcoin Risk Metric needed to evolve
The original Bitcoin Risk Metric is structurally biased toward momentum and trend deviation, which makes it very effective at identifying cycle lows but less effective at distinguishing relative risk between late-cycle highs. In strong bull markets, third waves often produce the highest momentum and the greatest distance from the long-term average, causing the metric to peak early. As the market transitions into later fifth-wave advances, price may reach higher levels, but with weaker momentum and slower rate-of-change, leading the metric to print lower highs despite price being objectively riskier.
In other words, the original metric answers the question “How stretched is price relative to its long-term trend?” rather than “How extended is price within its current market structure?” This results in under-warning near late-cycle tops and blow-off phases, particularly in assets that move in clear impulsive waves like Bitcoin. By adding Engine B, the model now incorporates structural extension risk, ensuring that risk remains elevated when price is far advanced from meaningful cycle lows—even if momentum has already rolled over. The result is an evolved risk framework that preserves the strengths of the original metric while correcting its primary blind spot at major and late-stage market tops.
Engine B evolves the model by adding an Elliott Wave– and Fibonacci-based extension framework. Instead of relying on momentum or trend deviation, it measures how far price has extended from meaningful local and macro anchor lows, using prior impulse lengths as the projection unit. These extensions are mapped into Fibonacci risk zones and converted into a 0–1 extension risk score. The plotted line remains Engine A’s core risk, but its colour is driven by a weighted blend of Engine A and Engine B (default 30% / 70%), allowing late-cycle price peaks—especially fifth waves—to correctly display elevated risk even when momentum is fading.
Why the Bitcoin Risk Metric needed to evolve
The original Bitcoin Risk Metric is structurally biased toward momentum and trend deviation, which makes it very effective at identifying cycle lows but less effective at distinguishing relative risk between late-cycle highs. In strong bull markets, third waves often produce the highest momentum and the greatest distance from the long-term average, causing the metric to peak early. As the market transitions into later fifth-wave advances, price may reach higher levels, but with weaker momentum and slower rate-of-change, leading the metric to print lower highs despite price being objectively riskier.
In other words, the original metric answers the question “How stretched is price relative to its long-term trend?” rather than “How extended is price within its current market structure?” This results in under-warning near late-cycle tops and blow-off phases, particularly in assets that move in clear impulsive waves like Bitcoin. By adding Engine B, the model now incorporates structural extension risk, ensuring that risk remains elevated when price is far advanced from meaningful cycle lows—even if momentum has already rolled over. The result is an evolved risk framework that preserves the strengths of the original metric while correcting its primary blind spot at major and late-stage market tops.
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La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading o de otro tipo proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Más información en Condiciones de uso.
Script protegido
Este script se publica como código cerrado. No obstante, puede utilizarlo libremente y sin ninguna limitación. Obtenga más información aquí.
Exención de responsabilidad
La información y las publicaciones no constituyen, ni deben considerarse como asesoramiento o recomendaciones financieras, de inversión, de trading o de otro tipo proporcionadas o respaldadas por TradingView. Más información en Condiciones de uso.