Daily Manipulation Levels

DML - [Mosaic]
This indicator projects statistically-derived Manipulation and Distribution levels based on historical daily price behavior, helping you anticipate where price is likely to reach during the current trading session.

🔍 How It Works
The DML analyzes the last 60 days (configurable) of daily candles and measures two key distances from each day's open:
For Bullish Days (close > open):

Manipulation Distance: How far price dropped below the open before rallying
Distribution Distance: How far price extended above the open

For Bearish Days (close < open):

Manipulation Distance: How far price spiked above the open before selling off
Distribution Distance: How far price extended below the open

The indicator then calculates the average (mean or median) of these historical distances and projects them from the current session's open (6pm ET for futures).

📊 The Levels

O (Orange): Current session open - your anchor point
+D: Bullish distribution target (projected high)
-D: Bearish distribution target (projected low)
+M: Bearish manipulation zone (where shorts get trapped before a selloff)
-M: Bullish manipulation zone (where longs get trapped before a rally)


📈 How To Use It
1. Identify the Daily Bias
Wait for price to sweep a manipulation level and show signs of reversal. A sweep of -M followed by bullish structure suggests an expansion toward +D. A sweep of +M followed by bearish structure suggests expansion toward -D.
2. Power of Three Framework
The levels align with ICT's Power of Three concept:

Accumulation: Price consolidates near the open
Manipulation: Price sweeps liquidity at +M or -M, trapping traders
Distribution: Price expands toward the opposite extreme (+D or -D)

3. Confluence Zones
Use these levels alongside other concepts like Fair Value Gaps, Order Blocks, and liquidity pools. When a DML level aligns with an FVG or key swing point, the probability of reaction increases significantly.

4. Target Setting
After a manipulation sweep and reversal confirmation (CISD), use the distribution level as your target. The statistical nature of these levels means price reaches them more often than not.

⚙️ Settings

Lookback Periods: Number of historical days to analyze (default: 60)
Calculation Method: Mean, Median, or Both - Median is less affected by outlier days
Calculation Mode: Points (raw price distance) or Percent (normalized by open price)
Level Visibility: Toggle individual levels on/off
Colors & Transparency: Fully customizable appearance


💡 Tips

On volatile days, expect manipulation to exceed the average levels - use them as zones, not exact prices
When "Both" is selected, solid lines show the mean and dashed lines show the median - if they're close together, the projection is more reliable
The levels reset at 6pm ET each day (futures session open)
Works best on intraday timeframes (1m - 1H) for NQ, ES, and other index futures


⚠️ Disclaimer
This indicator is a statistical tool based on historical averages. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Always use proper risk management and confirm signals with price action before entering trades.