Directional Volume EStimate from Price Action (RedK D_VESPA)

18 may 2023

The "Directional Volume EStimate from Price Action (RedK D_VESPA)" is another weapon for the VPA (Volume Price Analysis) enthusiasts and traders who like to include volume-based insights & signals to their trading. The basic concept is to estimate the sell and buy split of the traded volume by extrapolating the price action represented by the shape of the associated price bar. We then create and plot an average of these "estimated buy & sell volumes" - the estimated average Net Volume is the balance between these 2 averages.
D_VESPA uses clear visualizations to represent the outcomes in a less distracting and more actionable way.

How does D_VESPA work?
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The key assumption is that when price moves up, this is caused by "buy" volume (or increasing demand), and when the price moves down, this is due to "selling" volume (or increasing supply). Important to note that we are making our Buy/sell volume estimates here based on the shape of the price bar, and not looking into lower time frame volume data - This is a different approach and is still aligned to the key concepts of VPA.

Originally this work started as an improvement to my Supply/Demand Volume Viewer (V.Viewer), I ended up re-writing the whole thing after some more research and work on VPA, to improve the estimation, visualization and usability / tradability.

Think of D_VESPA as the "Pro" version of V.Viewer -- and please go back and review the details of V.Viewer as the root concepts are the same so I won't repeat them here (as it comes to exploring Balance Zone and finding Price Convergence/Divergence)

Main Features of D_VESPA
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- Update Supply/Demand calculation to include 2-bar gaps (improved algo)
- Add multiple options for the moving average (MA type) for the calculation - my preference is to use WMA
- Add option to show Net Volume as 3-color bars
- Visual simplification and improvements to be less distracting & more actionable

- added options to display/hide main visuals while maintaining the status line consistency (Avg Supply, Avg Demand, Avg Net)
- add alerts for NetVol moving into Buy (crosses 0 up) or Sell (crosses 0 down) modes - or swing from one mode to the other
(there are actually 2 sets of alerts, one set for the main NetVol plot, and the other for the secondary TF NetVol - give user more options on how to utilize D_VESPA)

Quick techie piece, how does the estimated buy/sell volume algo work ?
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* per our assumption, buy volume is associated with price up-moves, sell volume is associated with price down-moves
* so each of the bulls and bears will get the equivalent of the top & bottom wicks,
* for up bars, bulls get the value of the "body", else the bears get the "body"
* open gaps are allocated to bulls or bears depending on the gap direction

The below sketch explains how D_VESPA estimates the Buy/Sell Volume split based on the bar shape (including gap) - the example shows a bullish bar with an opening gap up - but the concept is the same for a down-bar or a down-gap.



I kept both the "Volume Weighted" and "2-bar Gap Impact" as options in the indicator settings - these 2 options should be always kept selected. They are there for those who would like to experiment with the difference these changes have on the buy/sell estimation. The indicator will handle cases where there is no volume data for the selected symbol, and in that case, it will simply reflect Average Estimated Bull/Bear ratio of the price bar

The Secondary TF Est Average Net Volume:
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I added the ability to plot the Estimate Average Net Volume for a secondary timeframe - options 1W, 1D, 1H, or Same as Chart.

- this feature provides traders the confidence to trade the lower timeframes in the same direction as the prevailing "market mode"
- this also adds more MTF support beyond the existing TradingView's built-in MTF support capability - experiment with various settings between exposing the indicator's secondary TF plot, and changing the TF option in the indicator settings.

Note on the secondary TF NetVol plot:
- the secondary TF needs to be set to same as or higher TF than the chart's TF - if not, a warning sign would show and the plot will not be enabled. for example, a day trader may set the secondary TF to 1Hr or 1Day, while looking at 5min or 15min chart. A swing/trend trader who frequently uses the daily chart may set the secondary TF to weekly, and so on..

- the secondary TF NetVol plot is hidden by default and needs to be exposed thru the indicator settings.

the below chart shows D_VESPA on a the same (daily) chart, but with secondary TF plot for the weekly TF enabled



Final Thoughts
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* RedK D_VESPA is a volume indicator, that estimates buy/sell and net volume averages based on the price action reflected by the shape of the price bars - this can provide more insight on volume compared to the classic volume/VolAverage indicator and assist traders in exploring the market mode (buyers/sellers - bullish/bearish) and align trades to it.

* Because D_VESPA is a volume indicator, it can't be used alone to generate a trading signal - and needs to be combined with other indicators that analysis price value (range), momentum and trend. I recommend to at least combine D_VESPA with a variant of MACD and RSI to get a full view of the price action relative to the prevailing market and the broader trend.

* I found it very useful to take note and "read" how the Est Buy vs Est Sell lines move .. they sort of "tell a story" - experiment with this on your various chart and note the levels of estimate avg demand vs estimate avg supply that this indicator exposes for some very valuable insight about how the chart action is progressing. Please feel free to share feedback below.

18 may 2023

Notas de prensa

No code changes- just updating the published chart