Price Prediction Forecast Model

Price Prediction Forecast Model

This indicator projects future price ranges based on recent market volatility.
It does not predict exact prices — instead, it shows where price is statistically likely to move over the next X bars.

How It Works

Price moves up and down by different amounts each bar. This indicator measures how large those moves have been recently (volatility) using the standard deviation of log returns.

That volatility is then:

• Projected forward in time
  
• Scaled as time increases (uncertainty grows)
  
• Converted into future price ranges
  

The further into the future you project, the wider the expected range becomes.

Volatility Bands (Standard Deviation–Based)

The indicator plots up to three projected volatility bands using standard deviation multipliers:

1. SD1 (1.0×) → Typical expected price movement
   
2. SD2 (1.25×) → Elevated volatility range
   
3. SD3 (1.5×) → High-volatility / stress range
   

These bands are based on standard deviation of volatility, not fixed probability guarantees.

Optional Drift

An optional drift term can be enabled to introduce a long-term directional bias (up or down).
This is useful for markets with persistent trends.