Bloomberg analyst puts odds of Litecoin, Solana and XRP ETF approvals at 100% after 19b-4s rendered ‘meaningless’
The Securities and Exchange Commission's approval of several new spot crypto exchange-traded funds in the U.S. is now seen as effectively a given after the agency's new generic listing standards made the prior 19b-4 deadline process moot, according to Bloomberg Senior ETF Analyst Eric Balchunas.
"Honestly, the odds are really 100% now," Balchunas posted to X, referring to crypto ETF products that Bloomberg previously predicted had a 90% to 95% chance of approval by the end of the year. "Generic listing standards make the 19b-4s and their 'clock' meaningless. That just leaves the S-1s waiting for a formal green light from [the SEC's Division of Corporation Finance]. And they just submitted amendment #4 for Solana. The baby could come any day. Be ready."
The SEC deadlines for potential approval of various issuers' Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs were set for Oct. 2, Oct. 10, and Oct. 17, respectively. However, the SEC could now approve or deny these at any time.
Alongside fellow Bloomberg ETF Analyst James Seyffart, Balchunas had earlier raised the odds of approval for Litecoin, Solana, and XRP ETFs to 95% in June, as well as a range of crypto index ETF products. The chances of approval for several Dogecoin, Cardano, Polkadot, Hedera, and Avalanche ETFs were increased to 90% at the same time.
The 19b-4 filings were part of a two-step application process with the SEC, filed by exchanges such as Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX on behalf of crypto ETF issuers. If acknowledged by the SEC and published on the Federal Register, that started the clock on the agency's approval and deadline process. The other important form, the S-1 registration statement, is filed by issuers and doesn't result in any deadlines.
Balchunas' comments follow a slew of recent 19b-4 withdrawals for Solana, XRP, Cardano, Litecoin, Dogecoin, Polkadot, and Hedera ETFs, as well as Ethereum staking ETFs, the SEC's website shows, following its generic listing standards approval.
The crypto ETF fast-track
The SEC approved the new exchange listing standards for crypto ETFs on an accelerated basis earlier this month, saying it had "good cause" to act early. The move fast-tracks pending crypto ETF applications and cuts potential review timelines for new submissions from 240 days to as little as 75.
Nasdaq, NYSE Arca, and Cboe BZX Exchange can now list and trade crypto funds that meet the generic standards without filing new 19b-4 forms, provided the underlying asset has a futures contract listed on any designated contract market for at least six months, among other criteria.
One such designated contract market is Coinbase Derivatives, which, in addition to Bitcoin and Ethereum, includes futures for Litecoin, Bitcoin Cash, Dogecoin, Polkadot, Avalanche, Chainlink, Stellar, Solana, Hedera, Cardano, and XRP, Balchunas noted at the time.
"The last time they implemented generic listings standards for [stock and bond] ETFs, launches tripled," he added. "Good chance we see north of 100 crypto ETFs launched in the next 12 months."
Following the debut of U.S. spot Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs in January and July 2024, respectively, dozens of new spot crypto ETF filings now await approval from the SEC. Since Paul Atkins became the agency's new chairman in April, he has promised a friendlier approach to digital assets.
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