ASML Q3 Earnings Preview: Bookings and EUV Demand Under the Microscope

ASML Holding N.V. ASML will report third-quarter 2025 results before European markets open on Wednesday, October 15. Analysts expect EPS of $6.37 on revenue of around $9 billion, reflecting a growth of 11% in both the top and bottom line. The stock has gained 33% year to date on Nasdaq, while the Amsterdam-listed shares are up about 18%, with the difference largely driven by currency fluctuations.

Investors will focus on orders. In Q2 2025, ASML booked 5.5 billion in net bookings, including 2.3 billion from EUV. That helped, reinforcing confidence that leading-edge demand remains strong as the AI capex cycle broadens. Management's prior Q3 guide called for 7.4 to 7.9 billion ($8.6 to $9.2 billion) in total net sales and 50 to 52% gross margin, so any update on backlog conversion, mix, or pricing will matter.

AI remains the structural tailwind, but the focus is shifting toward High-NA EUV, which marks the next phase of ASML's growth story. The company has begun initial customer installations of its 0.55 NA platform, signaling that High-NA is moving out of the lab and into early commercial readiness. In September, ASML and SK hynix completed the industry's first commercial High-NA system assembly at the chipmaker's M16 fab in Korea, an early milestone ahead of broader deployment expected in 20262027.

China's export controls and timing of memory capacity add some risks, which can swing quarterly bookings even if the multi-year AI thesis holds. Long-term, ASML still frames a path between 44 to 60 billion annual revenue by 2030 on AI-driven lithography intensity, subject to cycle timing.