Soybeans
US Dollar: Usually trends lower into major China export programs. Trends higher after export program concludes.
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
COT:
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk….
Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins.
Funds are exiting their longs
**These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
Some resistance ahead. A move lower would help grain exports….
COT:
Commercial Net (green) is tipping lower, about neutral. Selling by farmer to commercial met by equal buying of end users.
Commercial Shorts (yellow) recently adding to shorts, but pace is far behind last year. Last year the farmer sold out at harvest, leaving the Cooperatives heavily short and the funds long. Leaving the end users open to upside risk….
Commercial Longs have been adding, locking in the high crush margins.
Funds are exiting their longs
**These indicators lag behind change in trends. Currently using this data as an observation as it is too early to give a signal if low is in. A lower move nearby doesn’t appear to have staying power for a complete season….
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