Corn: 2 possible scenarios
An attempt to show potential paths that corn could take.
• Currently have an up-trending pitchfork (blue): If corn respects trend line support and makes another run up, the trajectory could warrant a move above $9.00 into mid July and into August. Sep Corn will have some work to do to chew through the large inverse but it can be done. The green bars illustrating the move is a ghost feed from this same time frame on 2012’s move higher.
• The down-trending pitchfork (red) will make an attempt to it’s own median line at 6.11 and could theoretically make that move into last half of June (July contract). At this point we could se an attempt back up to compete with recent highs.
So what to do. New crop (Dec22) will follow the course of front months, so use continuous chart to help make decisions on new crop.
On a break above the upper level downtrend line on the red pitch fork (following the green ghost feed) start looking at selling physical, buying puts, selling option premiums (spreads…), etc
On a move below the lower level up-trending blue pitchfork, look for support to re own or buy courage calls (against the red ghost feed). Keep targets on a recovery at retracement’s just below the high mark and be ready to lift out of calls or roll up calls in that area. Buy puts on the recovery to get 100% priced and protected.
All of this is in theory and not necessarily a decisive game plan. Just wanted to share some thoughts...
• Currently have an up-trending pitchfork (blue): If corn respects trend line support and makes another run up, the trajectory could warrant a move above $9.00 into mid July and into August. Sep Corn will have some work to do to chew through the large inverse but it can be done. The green bars illustrating the move is a ghost feed from this same time frame on 2012’s move higher.
• The down-trending pitchfork (red) will make an attempt to it’s own median line at 6.11 and could theoretically make that move into last half of June (July contract). At this point we could se an attempt back up to compete with recent highs.
So what to do. New crop (Dec22) will follow the course of front months, so use continuous chart to help make decisions on new crop.
On a break above the upper level downtrend line on the red pitch fork (following the green ghost feed) start looking at selling physical, buying puts, selling option premiums (spreads…), etc
On a move below the lower level up-trending blue pitchfork, look for support to re own or buy courage calls (against the red ghost feed). Keep targets on a recovery at retracement’s just below the high mark and be ready to lift out of calls or roll up calls in that area. Buy puts on the recovery to get 100% priced and protected.
All of this is in theory and not necessarily a decisive game plan. Just wanted to share some thoughts...
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